Good Morning BFTB,
The weeks leading up to Super Bowl LVII featured as many storyline variants as you could imagine because of the many links between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs. It was the Andy Reid revenge game, the Kelce brothers faced off in what was dubbed as the ‘Kelce Bowl’, Nick Sirianni returned to face the team that gave him his first job and both teams were the number one seeds in their respective conferences, the first time that had happened since 2017. This week’s edition of Monday Night Football is not only an exciting prospect for football fans but it is very much a repeat of that Super Bowl as these contemporary dynasties are both the number one seeds with both sides winning four out of their last five games.
The Eagles have been automatic so far this year winning their first five games before falling to a staunch New York Jets’ defense and an outlier good game from Zach Wilson. At that point in time the biggest question over this team was that they were yet to beat a strong team, a proper contender. Since that loss they easily beat the Miami Dolphins and fought past the impressive looking Dallas Cowboys to silence their critics. Jalen Hurts had been quiet before this stretch, seemingly willing to take a back seat and just let their elite offensive line blow teams away in the rushing game. Since then however he has taken the reins himself and with a dominant receiving threat like A.J. Brown, this was a smart decision as they look more explosive and capable of winning games from behind.
Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are hoping they can lead the Chiefs to another win over those very same Eagles that they last met back in February. However these are not the same Chiefs that played that game, Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has been outstanding all season long meaning Mahomes and Travis Kelce have only had to do what they do best to win games with very little production from the receivers or running game. The Chiefs have spent a few years carefully adding young players like George Karlaftis, Leo Chenal and Trent McDuffie who are all rounding into form together to allow a stingy 15.9 points a game, second lowest in the league.
DraftKings Sportsbook have the Chiefs as 2.5 point favorites at -120 in an expected re-run of their 38-35 win in Arizona. However this time around the total has been set at 46 as both of these teams represent the best of the NFL’s defense. If this is to be the defensive battle I suspect it will be, then I’m going to pick the team more experienced in these kinds of games. The patience it takes to grind out wins, trusting in your defense to bail you out of tough spots, is not something Mahomes has gotten used to just yet and I think in a tight game that will make all the difference. I’m backing both the moneyline at +124 and the under total at -110.
Here is how the BFTB staff sees this game breaking down:
What do you think, BFTB? Any of you placing bets tonight?