Von Miller faces the team, the Denver Broncos, he won a Super Bowl ring with whilst representing a team, the Buffalo Bills, that was the clear favorite to win this year’s title at the end of Week 4 after absolutely dominating the Miami Dolphins 48-20. The league’s active career sack leader is finally getting back to full health after tearing his ACL in his first season in Buffalo, he said that he played his first game pain free in last week’s game loss to the Cininnati Bengals but was unable to make a significant impact only registering one pressure on 24 snaps.
The Buffalo Bills need their high-earner to step up to another level due to losing multiple defensive starters to injuries, so far this season they have lost star cornerback Tre’Davious White, linebacker Matt Milano and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones to season ending injuries. They will also be missing safety Micah Hyde and cornerback Christian Benford this week to add to their depth issues. Despite all of these missing pieces Sean McDermott’s defense have not been the issue, they are only allowing 17.8 points per game, fourth best in the league. It has been Josh Allen and the offense that have struggled for consistency, they seem to drive the ball well but fail to convert those drives into points as often as they should. Their run game is poor, the bare statistics are deceptive as they may have 100 yards per game on the ground but Josh Allen has a quarter of those yards. James Cook is showing promise but they really need more out of him to balance this offense. Overall the Bills, despite being Super Bowl contenders in most people’s eyes, have fallen apart since the injuries started and they really need to stack some wins to even be sure they make the playoffs. They have won the next game after each of their four losses this season, can they right the ship once and build momentum down the stretch?
The Denver Broncos, on the other hand, have gone in the opposite direction since their Week 3 70-20 humiliation at the hand of the same Dolphins team that were walked over by the Bills a week later. They showed promise in losses before getting three wins over their last five games culminating in a shock win over their AFC West rivals, the Kansas City Chiefs, holding Patrick Mahomes to a season low nine points. Sean Payton has seemingly turned this team around with a solid defense and a balanced offense, their run game spearheaded by Javonte Williams has amassed 298 yards over the last two weeks. Their uphill battle to a playoff spot would need an inspired run as they started with three straight losses but for the context of this game their strong form should worry the Bills.
DraftKings Sportsbook have the Bills as a touchdown favorite in what the oddsmakers see as a one sided affair. I think the Bills have proven that they are a risky bet at any spread so to see such a big point difference on offer is slightly eyebrow raising. The Broncos are far from a complete team, in all the ways they have grown into the season Russell Wilson’s play hasn’t been on the same page. If anything he has gone the other way to the rest of the team with him failing to surpass 200 yards since Week 4. My call for this game is for Denver to cover the spread but for the Bills to win outright. I have picked the over on the 47.5 total however I am not confident in this mark as it is higher than I’d like. So if you’re looking for a bet, the Denver +7.0 points seems to be the way to go.
Here is how the BFTB staff sees this game breaking down:
What do you think, BFTB? Any of you placing bets tonight?