FanPost

2022 Roster Thoughts - Before Preseason Game #2

This is the 6th post in this series; here are the others:

  1. 2022 Roster Thoughts - Entering Offseason (January 16)
  2. 2022 Roster Thoughts - Entering Free Agency (March 12)
  3. 2022 Roster Thoughts - 1 Week Into Free Agency (March 20)
  4. 2022 Roster Thoughts - 2 Weeks Into Free Agency (March 27)
  5. 2022 Roster Thoughts - Post NFL Draft (April 30)

We are halfway through preseason, and the James extension is done, and we know the details. So it seemed like a good time for an update.

Roster Speculation

The Chargers currently have 85 players under contract for 2022, shown here with their current 2022 salary cap hits from OverTheCap:

Pos Player Cap Number
Edge Joey Bosa $ 28,250,000
WR Keenan Allen $ 19,200,000
WR Mike Williams $ 14,000,000
C Corey Linsley $ 11,600,000
CB Michael Davis $ 9,375,000
Edge Khalil Mack $ 8,750,000
S Derwin James $ 8,158,871
CB J.C. Jackson $ 8,000,000
LG Matt Feiler $ 7,500,000
QB Justin Herbert $ 7,248,751
RB Austin Ekeler $ 7,000,000
IDL Sebastian Joseph-Day $ 5,000,000
IDL Austin Johnson $ 4,500,000
TE Gerald Everett $ 4,000,000
LT Rashawn Slater $ 3,779,945
IDL Jerry Tillery $ 3,634,323
ILB Kenneth Murray $ 3,538,621
S Nasir Adderley $ 2,905,384
ILB Drue Tranquill $ 2,704,702
RG Zion Johnson $ 2,681,214
LB Kyle Van Noy $ 2,250,000
QB Chase Daniel $ 2,000,000
PK Dustin Hopkins $ 1,920,000
CB Asante Samuel Jr. $ 1,641,579
LS Josh Harris $ 1,320,000
T Trey Pipkins $ 1,184,269
WR Josh Palmer $ 1,143,649
WR DeAndre Carter $ 1,135,000
RB Joshua Kelley $ 1,090,086
TE Tre' McKitty $ 1,087,693
ILB Troy Reeder $ 1,075,000
CB Bryce Callahan $ 1,047,500
IDL Christian Covington $ 1,047,500
IDL Morgan Fox $ 1,047,500
QB Easton Stick $ 1,034,655
Edge Chris Rumph II $ 1,013,385
IOL Will Clapp $ 995,000
CB Tevaughn Campbell $ 965,000
Edge Emeke Egbule $ 965,000
WR Jalen Guyton $ 965,000
P JK Scott $ 965,000
S J.T. Woods $ 959,353
S Alohi Gilman $ 941,969
G Brenden Jaimes $ 904,449
IDL Andrew Brown $ 895,000
LB Cole Christiansen $ 895,000
IDL Joe Gaziano $ 895,000
WR Jason Moore $ 895,000
FB Gabe Nabers $ 895,000
T Storm Norton $ 895,000
TE Donald Parham $ 895,000
RB Isaiah Spiller $ 889,238
ILB Nick Niemann $ 878,502
WR Joe Reed $ 875,000
RB Larry Rountree III $ 868,941
S Mark Webb $ 850,022
ILB Amen Ogbongbemiga $ 830,000
Edge Jamal Davis $ 827,500
T Zack Bailey $ 825,000
S Ben DeLuca $ 825,000
IDL Breiden Fehoko $ 825,000
CB Kemon Hall $ 825,000
IOL Cameron Hunt $ 825,000
IOL Ryan Hunter $ 825,000
IDL Otito Ogbonnia $ 784,722
G Jamaree Salyer $ 748,983
CB Ja'Sir Taylor $ 738,003
CB Deane Leonard $ 729,916
FB Zander Horvath $ 724,253
WR Trevon Bradford $ 710,000
S Raheem Layne $ 708,333
RB Leddie Brown $ 707,500
CB Brandon Sebastian $ 707,500
Edge Ty Shelby $ 707,500
ILB Tyreek Maddox-Williams $ 706,666
PK James McCourt $ 706,666
TE Stone Smartt $ 706,666
RB Kevin Marks Jr. $ 706,333
TE Erik Krommenhoek $ 705,833
WR Michael Bandy $ 705,000
TE Hunter Kampmoyer $ 705,000
Edge Carlo Kemp $ 705,000
ILB Damon Lloyd $ 705,000
T Foster Sarell $ 705,000
TE Sage Surratt $ 705,000
Total $ 222,788,475

I am going to eliminate these players, projecting that they do not make the final roster:

  1. RB Larry Rountree III - he is clearly 4th in the RB pecking order, and I project the team to keep 3 RBs; practice squad candidate
  2. RB Leddie Brown - had no real shot IMO
  3. RB Kevin Marks Jr. - had no real shot IMO
  4. FB Gabe Nabers - projecting that Horvath beats him out; practice squad candidate, especially since he is buddies with Herbert
  5. WR Michael Bandy - toughest call for me, he was the final cut; I would have him making it if the Chargers kept 25 on offense or kept only 2 QBs; practice squad candidate, but may not clear waivers
  6. WR Joe Reed - 7th in the WR pecking order IMO, and I can't see how the team can keep more than 6 at the most, and even that is unlikely (see Bandy comment); practice squad candidate
  7. WR Jason Moore - had no real shot IMO; practice squad candidate
  8. WR Trevon Bradford - had no real shot IMO
  9. TE Hunter Kampmoyer - could make the final roster if any of the top 3 TEs are not healthy at the time of roster cutdown; practice squad candidate
  10. TE Sage Surratt - behind Kampmoyer IMO; practice squad candidate
  11. TE Stone Smartt - entering training camp, I thought he had an outside chance to make it, but it would have taken a very impressive camp, but he has been injured; practice squad candidate
  12. TE Erik Krommenhoek - had no real shot IMO
  13. IOL Cameron Hunt - had no real shot IMO; practice squad candidate
  14. IOL Ryan Hunter - had no real shot IMO; practice squad candidate
  15. T Foster Sarell - had no real shot IMO; practice squad candidate
  16. T Zack Bailey - had no real shot IMO; practice squad candidate
  17. Edge Emeke Egbule - projecting Jamal Davis will beat him out; practice squad candidate
  18. Edge Ty Shelby - had no real shot IMO
  19. Edge Carlo Kemp - had no real shot IMO
  20. IDL Christian Covington - projecting Fehoko will beat him out
  21. IDL Joe Gaziano - entering training camp, I thought he had an outside chance to make it, but it would have taken a very impressive camp, and that hasn't happened; practice squad candidate
  22. IDL Andrew Brown - no real shot IMO; practice squad candidate
  23. ILB Amen Ogbongbemiga - not confident in this one, since the coaching staff seems to like him a lot, but Niemann is a lock for special teams, and I don't see the team keeping 6 ILBs, so it comes down to keeping Edge Davis over Ogbongbemiga and planning on Van Noy as ILB1
  24. ILB Damon Lloyd - having a good training camp, but it's a numbers game; practice squad candidate
  25. ILB Cole Christiansen - had no real shot IMO; practice squad candidate
  26. ILB Tyreek Maddox-Williams - had no real shot IMO; practice squad candidate
  27. CB Kemon Hall - not high enough in DB pecking order; practice squad candidate, but could get activated for some games for special teams
  28. CB Deane Leonard - was a long shot IMO before his horrendous performance in the first preseason game, but has shown some potential; practice squad candidate
  29. CB Brandon Sebastian - had no real shot IMO; practice squad candidate
  30. S Raheem Layne - could make the final roster over Webb if Webb doesn't show he is healthy; practice squad candidate, but no guarantee he clears waivers
  31. S Ben DeLuca - had no real shot IMO; practice squad candidate
  32. PK James McCourt - had no real shot IMO; practice squad candidate

There are some tough calls in there, particularly on Bandy and Layne. There are several players having strong camps that won't make the final roster.

Projected Final Roster

That leaves me with this projected final 53 man roster:

Pos Player Cap Number
Edge Joey Bosa $ 28,250,000
WR Keenan Allen $ 19,200,000
WR Mike Williams $ 14,000,000
C Corey Linsley $ 11,600,000
CB Michael Davis $ 9,375,000
Edge Khalil Mack $ 8,750,000
S Derwin James $ 8,158,871
CB J.C. Jackson $ 8,000,000
LG Matt Feiler $ 7,500,000
QB Justin Herbert $ 7,248,751
RB Austin Ekeler $ 7,000,000
IDL Sebastian Joseph-Day $ 5,000,000
IDL Austin Johnson $ 4,500,000
TE Gerald Everett $ 4,000,000
LT Rashawn Slater $ 3,779,945
IDL Jerry Tillery $ 3,634,323
ILB Kenneth Murray $ 3,538,621
S Nasir Adderley $ 2,905,384
ILB Drue Tranquill $ 2,704,702
RG Zion Johnson $ 2,681,214
LB Kyle Van Noy $ 2,250,000
QB Chase Daniel $ 2,000,000
PK Dustin Hopkins $ 1,920,000
CB Asante Samuel Jr. $ 1,641,579
LS Josh Harris $ 1,320,000
T Trey Pipkins $ 1,184,269
WR Josh Palmer $ 1,143,649
WR DeAndre Carter $ 1,135,000
RB Joshua Kelley $ 1,090,086
TE Tre' McKitty $ 1,087,693
ILB Troy Reeder $ 1,075,000
CB Bryce Callahan $ 1,047,500
IDL Morgan Fox $ 1,047,500
QB Easton Stick $ 1,034,655
Edge Chris Rumph II $ 1,013,385
IOL Will Clapp $ 995,000
CB Tevaughn Campbell $ 965,000
WR Jalen Guyton $ 965,000
P JK Scott $ 965,000
S J.T. Woods $ 959,353
S Alohi Gilman $ 941,969
G Brenden Jaimes $ 904,449
T Storm Norton $ 895,000
TE Donald Parham $ 895,000
RB Isaiah Spiller $ 889,238
ILB Nick Niemann $ 878,502
S Mark Webb $ 850,022
Edge Jamal Davis $ 827,500
IDL Breiden Fehoko $ 825,000
IDL Otito Ogbonnia $ 784,722
G Jamaree Salyer $ 748,983
CB Ja'Sir Taylor $ 738,003
FB Zander Horvath $ 724,253
Total $ 197,569,121

Here is how it looks by position group:

  • Offense (24):
    • QB (3): Herbert, Daniel, Stick
    • RB (3): Ekeler, Kelley, Spiller
    • FB (1): Horvath
    • WR (5): Allen, Williams, Palmer, Guyton, Carter
    • TE (3): Everett, Parham, McKitty
    • OL (9): LT Slater, LG Feiler, C Linsley, RG Johnson, RT Norton, T Pipkins, G Salyer, G Jaimes, IOL Clapp
  • Defense (26):
    • Edge (4): Bosa, Mack, Rumph, Davis
    • IDL (6): Johnson, Joseph-Day, Fox, Tillery, Fehoko, Ogbonnia
    • ILB (5): Van Noy, Tranquill, Murray, Reeder, Niemann
    • CB (6): Jackson, Samuel, Davis, Callahan, Campbell, Taylor (R)
    • S (5): James, Adderley, Gilman, Webb, Woods (R)
  • Special Teams (3):
    • PK (1) - Hopkins
    • P (1) - Scott
    • LS (1) - Harris

That is a compelling roster.

Functional Salary Cap Space

Now, taking everything posted above into account, I can determine an estimate of the team's functionally availble cap space.

Dead Money

OTC is currently showing the Chargers 2022 dead cap money as $3,664,056. However, there will be additional dead cap money associated with waiving these players:

Pos Player Dead Money
IDL Christian Covington $ 152,500
RB Larry Rountree III $ 131,823
ILB Amen Ogbongbemiga $ 10,000
CB Deane Leonard $ 99,664
WR Trevon Bradford $ 15,000
S Raheem Layne $ 10,000
RB Leddie Brown $ 7,500
CB Brandon Sebastian $ 7,500
Edge Ty Shelby $ 7,500
ILB Tyreek Maddox-Williams $ 5,000
PK James McCourt $ 5,000
TE Stone Smartt $ 5,000
RB Kevin Marks Jr. $ 4,000
TE Erik Krommenhoek $ 2,500
Total $ 462,987

So that projects to a total of $4,127,043 in 2022 dead money.

Injured Reserve

The Chargers have already incurred $1,319,999 in IR cap hits for waived injured players Merrill, Trainer, and Weaver.

I typically assume the team will reserve $3M for 2022 in season injury replacements. (See my second offseason post for details.) However, I have noticed that Daniel Popper, the Chargers beat writer for the Athletic, reserves $7M for in-season signings and trades. I am skeptical that Telesco has ever used $7M in cap space for in-season maneuvers, and this typically just results in a bigger rollover number for the next season's cap adjustments. That said, because I want to be conservative, I'm going to bump my number higher. This is above and beyond the IR cap hits already incurred.

So I will combine the incurred cap hits and the >$3M reserve going forward and round it up to an even $5M.

Practice Squad

Teams can have up to 16 players on their practice squads for 2022. To be conservative, I assume the Chargers will carry the maximum number of 16 players.

For 2022, up to 6 of the 16 practice squad players can be veterans with no limitations on accrued seasons. To be conservative, I assume the Chargers will carry 6 of these veterans. These players earn between $15,400 and $19,900 per week. I assume these 6 players will average the midpoint between those salaries, $17,650 per week. For 18 weeks, that is $317,700 per player.

The other 10 practice squad players earn $11,500 per week. For 18 weeks, that is $207K per player.

The CBA allows 2 practice squad players to be activated every week for reasons other than COVID, and an unlimited number of players as COVID replacements. Those players get paid at NFL minimum salary level.

In 2022, the NFL minimum salary is $705K, which equates to a weekly salary of $39,167.

The Chargers activated practice squad players a total of 27 times in the 2021 season. I will round that up to 2 players per regular season game to be conservative for this projection, for a total of 34 activations.

For this projection, I assume half of these activations are from the group of 10 lower paid players and half are from the group of 6 higher paid players.

Accounting for all of that results in a total cost of $4,812,317 for the practice squad. I made enough assumptions here that I'm comfortable rounding down slightly to $4.8M.

Do The Math

With that, we can calculate currently available space:

  • OTC is showing the Chargers cap is $216,088,333 (adding up Effective Cap Space, Active Cap Spending, and Dead Money)
  • The 53 players I identified in that working roster above have a combined cap hit of $197,569,121
  • Dead money amount is $4,127,043
  • Assume $4.8M for practice squad
  • Assume $5M for 2022 in season injured reserve / injury replacements

Do the math, and that leaves $4,592,169 in available 2022 cap space. Telesco doesn't normally spend to the max, and the team has a serious cap challenge looming for 2023, so he may prefer to roll as much as possible to next season.

On the other hand, arguably this is the year the Chargers are ready to push their chips all in, so maybe he is willing to deal with next season's cap challenge next offseason and spend more on this year's roster. If so, and based on the poor performance of Norton and Pipkins to date, the best thing he could spend on is to sign a veteran RT. I would be excited to see that, but I don't expect it.

Conclusion

My expectations have not been this high for a Chargers season since the 2007 offseason, following the 14-2 2006 season.

I will be interested to see how the final 6-8 roster spots shake out and how many I miss on. Regardless, this looks like a very strong roster. With solid injury luck, this should be a playoff team and a contender to win the division and potentially even to earn the AFC #1 seed.

I hope I'm not setting myself up for another disappointment, but I am remaining stubbornly optimistic. Bolt Up!

This FanPost was written by a member of the Bolts From The Blue community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bolts From The Blue editors or SB Nation.