FanPost

What to expect from the 2022 Chargers Defense?

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Bear Bryant once said:

Offense sells tickets, but defense wins championships.

This was a popular quote for the bulk of the Super Bowl era, but we don't really hear it much any more. It's with good reason, however, as the league has morphed into one ruled by offense over the past 25 years.

But...how good does a defense need to be to win a championship nowadays?

Super Bowl Winning Defenses

From PFR:

  1. 2021 - Rams - #15 points allowed, #17 yards allowed
  2. 2020 - Buccaneers - #8 points allowed, #6 yards allowed
  3. 2019 - Chiefs - #7 points allowed, #17 yards allowed
  4. 2018 - Patriots - #7 points allowed, #21 yards allowed
  5. 2017 - Eagles - #4 points allowed, #4 yards allowed
  6. 2016 - Patriots - #1 points allowed, #8 yards allowed
  7. 2015 - Broncos - #4 points allowed, #1 yards allowed
  8. 2014 - Patriots - #8 points allowed, #14 yards allowed
  9. 2013 - Seahawks - #1 points allowed, #1 yards allowed
  10. 2012 - Ravens - #12 points allowed, #17 yards allowed

Last year's Rams notwithstanding, and as good as the offenses were for these championship teams, this shows that most Super Bowl winning teams over the past decade had really strong defenses, particularly in points allowed.

As a data point, the 2021 Chargers were #29 (tied) in points allowed and #23 in yards allowed. Looking at those Super Bowl winning defenses, that doesn't appear to be close to good enough.

How Bad was the 2021 Chargers Defense?

Warning, I'm going to use a lot of metrics in this discussion.

Let's start with team defense grades from PFF:

  • Overall - 60.7 (#24)
  • Run defense - 50.6 (#19)
  • Tackling - 48.5 (#28)
  • Pass rush - 74.1 (#13)
  • Coverage - 61.6 (#20)

The rankings of these grades are more generous than I would expect, particularly for run defense, but perhaps it's because they separate out tackling (?).

Here are some other data points from Daniel Popper, the Chargers beat writer for The Athletic. According to him, the 2021 Chargers were:

  • #28 in EPA/play
  • #28 in rush defense EPA/play
  • #26 in DVOA
  • #27 in weighted DVOA (which puts more emphasis on more recent performances)
  • #30 in run defense DVOA
  • #32 in third-down efficiency
  • #26 in red zone defense
  • #25 in explosive plays allowed
  • #31 in defensive points allowed in the fourth quarter and overtime

More from Popper:

  • The Chargers defense faced the 10th-most third downs with five yards or fewer to gain this season and they did not perform well in those situations. They allowed opposing offenses to convert on 68.8 percent of those downs, the highest rate in the league.
  • After leading the league in third-and-6+ defense through the first six weeks, the Chargers ranked 30th in that area from week eight to 18.
  • The Chargers did not generate enough pressure in their pass rush. They ranked 19th in pressure rate overall, and on third-and-longs, they ranked 25th in pressure rate.

More from PFR on the 2021 Chargers:

  • Tied for #29-30 in points allowed, as noted above (459 = 27.0/game)
  • Tied for #23 in yards allowed, as noted above (6,122 = 360/game)
  • #23 in yards/play allowed (5.6)
  • Tied for #29-30 in percentage of opponent drives ending in an offensive score (45.3%)
  • Tied for #28-29 in first downs allowed (383)
  • #31 in first downs allowed due to defensive penalties (40)
  • #24 in expected points contributed by the defense (-122.86)
  • #30 in missed tackles (127)

Overall, that is a lot of data that tells us what we already knew -- the 2021 Chargers defense was bad. There is no other way to view it.

What About the Chargers Players?

32 Chargers players played defensive snaps last season. Here they are, along with their 2021 snap counts and PFF grades:

Pos Name Snaps PFF Grades
Total Run Pass Rush Covg Def Run Tack Pass Rush Covg
Edge Bosa 847 352 468 27 85.8 68.4 29.4 90.3 87.1
Edge Nwosu 781 317 408 56 64.3 56.1 48.2 68.5 62.9
Edge Fackrell 382 157 207 18 63.3 55.0 42.2 72.7 32.9
Edge Rumph 176 73 89 14 60.8 67.4 80.2 54.0 67.7
Edge Egbule 40 19 20 1 53.8 59.8 72.0 50.0 60.0
IDL Joseph 550 298 252 0 63.1 49.3 61.4 83.0
IDL Gaziano 214 86 128 0 61.4 56.3 61.0 59.0
IDL Jones 486 200 286 0 57.9 55.2 34.2 61.1
IDL Covington 523 264 259 0 55.9 59.6 60.7 46.9
IDL Brown 12 7 5 0 55.8 60.0 67.4 53.1
IDL Fehoko 121 65 56 0 51.1 58.7 74.6 48.5
IDL Tillery 858 370 486 2 45.9 45.6 29.1 53.4 69.2
IDL Banks 34 20 14 0 32.4 35.4 68.1 52.0
IDL Merrill 36 28 8 0 31.9 46.7 34.6 63.9
LB White 979 424 41 514 66.5 63.0 80.7 73.0 65.7
LB Tranquill 560 209 33 318 64.6 45.4 81.0 68.8 74.7
LB Niemann 67 31 2 34 54.7 38.4 83.0 58.2 71.2
LB Murray 363 166 60 137 34.0 43.3 43.1 57.2 38.1
LB Ogbongbemiga 111 61 5 45 33.3 28.7 48.1 84.9 49.8
DB James 961 409 27 525 78.1 76.5 79.8 86.2 76.6
DB Adderley 987 402 4 581 66.2 70.7 52.7 91.6 61.3
DB Chris Harris 747 278 15 454 62.4 64.1 62.6 64.3 60.4
DB Hall 22 7 1 14 62.2 60.1 27.5 60.0 62.1
DB Smith 54 26 0 28 61.9 47.2 37.6 66.0
DB Gilman 355 133 0 222 58.8 55.0 49.4 59.6
DB Campbell 678 266 3 409 56.9 75.6 47.4 52.7 52.4
DB Samuel 693 297 0 396 56.4 49.7 35.5 57.4
DB Davis 851 328 0 523 54.0 49.4 58.0 54.4
DB Webb 6 1 0 5 51.4 60.0 76.7 52.6
DB Marshall 197 67 0 130 48.4 73.3 35.5 44.1
DB Davontae Harris 74 35 0 39 40.8 68.5 56.7 33.8
DB Bassey 11 4 0 7 28.9 60.0 73.0 28.7
Total 12,776 5,400 2,877 4,499 61.4 58.8 54.3 66.9 61.0

Here is how the major position groups stack up:

Pos Snaps PFF Grades
Total Run Pass Rush Covg Def Run Tack Pass Rush Covg
Edge 2,226 918 1,192 116 71.8 61.6 43.0 76.4 64.4
IDL 2,834 1,338 1,494 2 54.2 51.9 47.1 59.1 69.2
LB 2,080 891 141 1,048 58.2 52.0 72.6 65.5 64.3
DB 5,636 2,253 50 3,333 62.0 64.4 55.7 77.5 59.8
Total 12,776 5,400 2,877 4,499 61.4 58.8 54.3 66.9 61.0

Note: The PFF grades in this position group table and in the Total line of the previous table are using weighted averages per snap. I don't know how PFF gets to their team defense grades, but these do not match, so clearly the methodology I use here isn't the same as theirs.

To no one's surprise, the IDL was the worst performing unit, and the LB unit was next worst.

Fortunately, the Chargers have made changes in each of these four units. In other words, the cavalry is coming, right?

New Additions to the Rescue?

The Chargers have made some notable changes to the defense so far this offseason:

In my previous Fanpost (2022 Roster Thoughts - 2 Weeks Into Free Agency), I had projected this group of veteran defensive players to make the final roster, understanding that would be augmented in the draft and possibly also with additional free agents:

  • Edge (3) - Bosa, Mack, Rumph
  • IDL (5) - Johnson, Joseph-Day, Tillery, Gaziano, Covington
  • LB (4) - Tranquill, Murray, Ogbongbemiga, Niemann
  • CB (4) - Jackson, Davis, Samuel, Campbell
  • S (4) - James, Adderley, Gilman, Webb

That was on March 27. Since then, the team signed LB Reeder. I also think it is reasonable to consider Fehoko in the mix for now, since injuries, COVID, etc. is likely to spark the need for practice squad callups.

So:

  • Remove the players who signed with other teams
  • Remove the players from last season who I don't expect to make the final roster, or at least make a significant contribution in 2022, with Fehoko being the exception for now
  • Add the new players identified above, using their 2021 snaps/grades from their other teams

That leaves these 22 players. Here they are, along with their 2021 snap counts and PFF grades:

Pos Name Snaps PFF Grades
Total Run Pass Rush Covg Def Run Tack Pass Rush Covg
Edge Bosa 847 352 468 27 85.8 68.4 29.4 90.3 87.1
Edge Mack 315 125 176 14 73.0 64.7 43.4 74.0 66.5
Edge Rumph 176 73 89 14 60.8 67.4 80.2 54.0 67.7
IDL Joseph-Day 343 119 224 0 61.5 65.0 44.9 57.8
IDL Gaziano 214 86 128 0 61.4 56.3 61.0 59.0
IDL Johnson 665 333 332 0 58.3 53.9 54.9 63.3
IDL Covington 523 264 259 0 55.9 59.6 60.7 46.9
IDL Fehoko 121 65 56 0 51.1 58.7 74.6 48.5
IDL Tillery 858 370 486 2 45.9 45.6 29.1 53.4 69.2
LB Tranquill 560 209 33 318 64.6 45.4 81.0 68.8 74.7
LB Niemann 67 31 2 34 54.7 38.4 83.0 58.2 71.2
LB Reeder 864 355 54 455 43.1 51.8 46.7 68.1 34.8
LB Murray 363 166 60 137 34.0 43.3 43.1 57.2 38.1
LB Ogbongbemiga 111 61 5 45 33.3 28.7 48.1 84.9 49.8
DB Jackson 996 403 2 591 78.9 67.8 43.7 54.2 80.4
DB James 961 409 27 525 78.1 76.5 79.8 86.2 76.6
DB Adderley 987 402 4 581 66.2 70.7 52.7 91.6 61.3
DB Gilman 355 133 0 222 58.8 55.0 49.4 59.6
DB Campbell 678 266 3 409 56.9 75.6 47.4 52.7 52.4
DB Samuel 693 297 0 396 56.4 49.7 35.5 57.4
DB Davis 851 328 0 523 54.0 49.4 58.0 54.4
DB Webb 6 1 0 5 51.4 60.0 76.7 52.6
Total 11,554 4,848 2,408 4,298 61.5 59.3 51.2 64.5 61.3

Here is how the major position groups stack up:

Pos Snaps PFF Grades
Total Run Pass Rush Covg Def Run Tack Pass Rush Covg
Edge 1,338 550 733 55 79.5 67.4 39.4 82.0 76.9
IDL 2,724 1,237 1,485 2 54.3 54.1 48.0 55.4 69.2
LB 1,965 822 154 989 47.4 46.2 57.1 64.4 50.0
DB 5,527 2,239 36 3,252 65.8 65.0 53.6 82.2 64.4
Total 11,554 4,848 2,408 4,298 61.5 59.3 51.2 64.5 61.3

So, what looks different?

  • Adding Mack in place of Fackrell and Nwosu improved the Edge group, although obviously another depth player is needed, and he could bring the grades down.
  • Adding Jackson in place of Chris Harris and removing the small snap players improved the DB group.
  • Unfortunately, adding IDLs Johnson and Joseph-Day in place of Joseph and Jones kept the IDL group relatively flat. Run defense is a bit better, and pass rush is a bit worse. This is probably an acceptable tradeoff, since the pass rush got better with Mack, and the run defense needed more attention.
  • Worse, adding Reeder in place of White dropped the LB grades significantly.

However, consider a few things:

  • Mack was hurt most of last season. 2020 is arguably a better representation of his impact, assuming he can stay at least mostly healthy. It seems reasonable, if perhaps cautiously optimistic, to use Mack's 2020 snaps/grades.
  • Joseph-Day played for Staley's defense in 2020, and he also had injury issues in 2021. It is arguably better use his 2020 snaps/grades.
  • Reeder played for Staley's defense in 2020, and his snap count went up significantly in 2021 over 2020... and, perhaps more importantly, his snap count in 2021 was much higher than he is likely to see with the Chargers in 2022. It is arguably better use his 2020 snaps/grades.

So what happens if we substitute 2020 snaps/grades for those three players?

Here they are, along with their 2021 snap counts and PFF grades for all but the three players mentioned above, with 2020 snap counts and PFF grades for those three players:

Pos Name Snaps PFF Grades
Total Run Pass Rush Covg Def Run Tack Pass Rush Covg
Edge Mack (2020) 963 381 531 51 92.5 92.0 74.4 90.8 66.9
Edge Bosa 847 352 468 27 85.8 68.4 29.4 90.3 87.1
Edge Rumph 176 73 89 14 60.8 67.4 80.2 54.0 67.7
IDL Joseph-Day (2020) 490 253 236 1 76.8 72.4 66.9 65.4 70.3
IDL Gaziano 214 86 128 0 61.4 56.3 61.0 59.0
IDL Johnson 665 333 332 0 58.3 53.9 54.9 63.3
IDL Covington 523 264 259 0 55.9 59.6 60.7 46.9
IDL Fehoko 121 65 56 0 51.1 58.7 74.6 48.5
IDL Tillery 858 370 486 2 45.9 45.6 29.1 53.4 69.2
LB Tranquill 560 209 33 318 64.6 45.4 81.0 68.8 74.7
LB Reeder (2020) 556 217 31 308 61.3 56.7 56.5 77.3 59.2
LB Niemann 67 31 2 34 54.7 38.4 83.0 58.2 71.2
LB Murray 363 166 60 137 34.0 43.3 43.1 57.2 38.1
LB Ogbongbemiga 111 61 5 45 33.3 28.7 48.1 84.9 49.8
DB Jackson 996 403 2 591 78.9 67.8 43.7 54.2 80.4
DB James 961 409 27 525 78.1 76.5 79.8 86.2 76.6
DB Adderley 987 402 4 581 66.2 70.7 52.7 91.6 61.3
DB Gilman 355 133 0 222 58.8 55.0 49.4 59.6
DB Campbell 678 266 3 409 56.9 75.6 47.4 52.7 52.4
DB Samuel 693 297 0 396 56.4 49.7 35.5 57.4
DB Davis 851 328 0 523 54.0 49.4 58.0 54.4
DB Webb 6 1 0 5 51.4 60.0 76.7 52.6
Total 12,041 5,100 2,752 4,189 65.7 62.5 54.7 69.7 64.0

Here is how the major position groups stack up:

Pos Snaps PFF Grades
Total Run Pass Rush Covg Def Run Tack Pass Rush Covg
Edge 1,986 806 1,088 92 86.8 79.5 55.7 87.6 73.0
IDL 2,871 1,371 1,497 3 57.2 56.5 51.6 56.7 69.6
LB 1,657 684 131 842 54.3 46.7 62.4 66.0 61.6
DB 5,527 2,239 36 3,252 65.8 65.0 53.6 82.2 64.4
Total 12,041 5,100 2,752 4,189 65.7 62.5 54.7 69.7 64.0

OK, now we're talking. LB is the only group that did not improve, and the dropoff is not as significant in this look. And consider the new additions:

  • Mack (2020) has the highest overall grade in the Edge group, even higher than Bosa
  • Joseph-Day (2020) has the highest overall grade in the IDL group
  • Reeder (2020) has the 2nd highest overall grade in the LB group
  • Jackson (2021) has the highest overall grade in the DB group, even higher than James

Given good health, this looks like a defense that has the possible makings of a championship caliber defense when combined with the top 5 caliber Chargers offense and what will hopefully be improvement in special teams.

Other Reasons for Optimism

We can always hope for better health... but the Chargers were #20 in Adjusted Games Lost (AGL) last season on defense. As Chargers fans know very well, it could get worse as easily as it could get better.

However, consider:

  • Murray could theoretically turn his performance around and get closer to fulfilling his talent and potential that led the Chargers to reach, er, trade up to draft him. That would bolster what at this point looks like the weakest defensive unit.
  • Jackson's signing relieves pressure on the other CBs. Davis will clearly be able to take a lesser assignment more often. Same for Samuel. Campbell can be used more judiciously.These things, combined with the possibility that Samuel takes a step forward in his play with a year behind him, suggest that the secondary play could improve quite a bit.
  • Staley has injected three of "his guys" -- Mack, Joseph-Day, and Reeder -- into the starting mix. That didn't happen last season. That, combined with what the players learned about his defense last season and what Staley learned about the remaining players last season, could result in improvement in both the coaching/playcalling and the players' performance.

What Remains (i.e., the Draft)

Speaking only of defense, and not special teams, it seems the defense needs the following:

  1. At least one more depth player for pass rush.
  2. One more depth player for IDL, to push Gaziano/Fehoko to the practice squad.
  3. A LB to push Murray/Tranquill/Reeder who isn't just a special teams player. IMO Ogbongbemiga is not that guy. If the team feels good that Niemann is that guy, I'm good with it. Note, I don't think the team is shopping for a starter in the draft, so I doubt a LB draft pick will occur before the late/special teams rounds.
  4. DB depth.

Time for Staley to Make his Bones

That heading is self-explanatory. Time for the defensive wizard to show defensive wizardry on the field, not just on paper or reputation.

Thoughts?

This FanPost was written by a member of the Bolts From The Blue community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bolts From The Blue editors or SB Nation.