Free agency effectively starts on Monday, so I figured it was a good time to update my 2022 roster thoughts. This is the second post in this series; the first is here: 2022 Roster Thoughts - Entering Offseason.
Active Contracts
The Chargers currently have 51 players under contract for 2022. Here they are, along with their cap hits from OTC:
Pos | Player | Cap Number |
Edge | Joey Bosa | $28,250,000 |
WR | Keenan Allen | $19,200,000 |
Edge | Khalil Mack | $17,750,000 |
RT | Bryan Bulaga | $14,083,334 |
WR | Mike Williams | $14,000,000 |
C | Corey Linsley | $11,600,000 |
CB | Michael Davis | $9,352,941 |
S | Derwin James | $9,052,000 |
LG | Matt Feiler | $7,500,000 |
QB | Justin Herbert | $7,248,751 |
RB | Austin Ekeler | $7,000,000 |
LT | Rashawn Slater | $3,779,945 |
IDL | Jerry Tillery | $3,634,323 |
LB | Kenneth Murray | $3,538,621 |
S | Nasir Adderley | $2,905,384 |
LB | Drue Tranquill | $2,704,702 |
CB | Asante Samuel Jr. | $1,641,579 |
T | Trey Pipkins | $1,184,269 |
WR | Josh Palmer | $1,143,649 |
RB | Joshua Kelley | $1,090,086 |
TE | Tre' McKitty | $1,087,693 |
QB | Easton Stick | $1,034,655 |
Edge | Chris Rumph II | $1,013,385 |
CB | Tevaughn Campbell | $965,000 |
LB | Emeke Egbule | $965,000 |
WR | Jalen Guyton | $965,000 |
S | Alohi Gilman | $941,969 |
G | Brenden Jaimes | $904,449 |
Edge | Andrew Brown | $895,000 |
LB | Cole Christiansen | $895,000 |
IDL | Joe Gaziano | $895,000 |
WR | Jason Moore | $895,000 |
FB | Gabe Nabers | $895,000 |
T | Storm Norton | $895,000 |
TE | Donald Parham | $895,000 |
LB | Nick Niemann | $878,502 |
WR | Joe Reed | $875,000 |
RB | Larry Rountree III | $868,941 |
S | Mark Webb | $850,022 |
LB | Amen Ogbongbemiga | $830,000 |
IDL | Jamal Davis | $827,500 |
S | Ben DeLuca | $825,000 |
IDL | Breiden Fehoko | $825,000 |
WR | Maurice Ffrench | $825,000 |
CB | Kemon Hall | $825,000 |
G | Ryan Hunter | $825,000 |
IDL | Forrest Merrill | $825,000 |
WR | Michael Bandy | $705,000 |
TE | Hunter Kampmoyer | $705,000 |
LB | Damon Lloyd | $705,000 |
T | Foster Sarell | $705,000 |
Total | $193,701,700 |
Internal Free Agents
In my January post, I predicted the Chargers would keep 15 of their internal free agents, including WR Williams, WR Guyton, TE Parham, and T Norton, all of whom have been re-signed.
That leaves them with 21 unsigned free agents. Here are my thoughts on them:
- QB Daniel (UFA) - I think he will be back to continue in the mentor role for Herbert. I assume the team will sign him to another 1 year contract for the minimum, which for 7+ credited seasons is $1.12M in 2022.
- RB Jackson (UFA) - He showed flashes this season like every season. I would like the team re-sign Jackson, since he should be cheap, and sign a bigger veteran RB to join the RB committee, which would imply releasing Kelley and/or Rountree to the practice squad. I assume that will happen and the team will sign Jackson to a 1 year contract for the minimum, which for 4 credited seasons is $1.035M in 2022.
- TE Cook (UFA) - IMO Cook was a disappointment this season, which some of us discussed in the comments of this post. It wouldn't shock me if the team brought him back on a 1 year deal, but I don't think they should. For this exercise, I assume he is gone.
- TE Anderson (UFA) - Anderson was solid on offense and one of the team's best special teams players in both 2020 and 2021. I hope he is back and will assume so. Other teams could have interest, so I assume the team will sign him for a modest increase above the veteran minimum, say 1 year, $1.5M.
- RG Aboushi (UFA) - Aboushi played well before his injury, albeit in only 5 games and 298 snaps. However, I'm going to go against what I ancitipate to be the popular opinion and say the team should sign Schofield instead, letting Aboushi walk. It's not just this year's injury; Aboushi has only averaged 438 snaps per season in 8 seasons. I'd rather have the more durable player who performs similarly. See below.
- G Schofield (UFA) - In his last 3 seasons with the Chargers (2018, 2019, 2021), he has averaged over 1K snaps per season, and he has averaged 838 snaps per season over 7 seasons. He is slightly younger than Aboushi, and was graded similarly by PFF -- Schofield graded at 66.8 overall in 2021, compared to 68.2 for Aboushi. He should be a solid stopgap until (hopefully) Jaimes is ready to take over. Schofield played for the minimum salary in 2021, and I assume the team will sign him to another 1 year salary at the minimum salary of $1.12M.
- C Quessenberry (UFA) - Quessenberry played 625 snaps in 2019 but otherwise has played just 189 snaps over his other 3 seasons, including 115 for the current coaching staff in 2021. He was not very good in 2019, but he was also a second year player playing his first meaningful snaps at a tough position with poor players surrounding him on the OL. So I don't really know what to think of him, or, more importantly, what the coaching staff thinks of him, so I can see this going either way. If they do not re-sign him, they will have to acquire another center, which leads me to believe they will re-sign him for 1 year for the minimum salary of $1.035M.
- G Kelemete (UFA) - He was a desperation pickup midseason and played poorly, with the poorest PFF grade on offense out of 42 graded players other than Bradwell, who played just 7 snaps. I assume he is gone.
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Edge Nwosu (UFA) - In my previous post, I said I thought the team should and will re-sign Nwosu and would still need an upgrade in its pass rush rotation beyond that. They took care of the upgrade by trading for Mack, but I still think they should bring Nwosu back.
- He proved down the stretch in 2021 that he can be a valuable part of that rotation, and he is good enough to enable the team to keep Bosa and Mack fresh -- we have seen in the past that Bosa often looks gassed late in games because he had to play so many snaps and face so many double teams. Mack will help with the latter and Nwosu can help with the former.
- This article compares Nwosu to Tyus Bowser, who signed a 4 year, $22M contract last offseason, with an additional $5M in incentives available. I assume there will be some inflation in that contract value, since Bowser signed that in the season the cap was depressed, so I will assume a 4 year, $26M contract, with a 2022 cap hit of $4M.
- Note that I am assuming for this exercise that he will be signed for that contract, but I am skeptical the team will do it after the substantial investment in Mack.
- Edge Fackrell (UFA) - Fackrell only played 382 snaps in 2021, and he was only good at one thing - rushing the passer. But he only generated 12 pressures and 3 sacks in 207 pass rushing snaps and only had 8 tackles and 4 assists on the season. IMO that is not enough for a guy who is not good at run defense and is flat out bad at tackling and coverage. Fortunately, the Mack trade makes it easy to let him walk.
- IDL Joseph (UFA) - Joseph was the Chargers best IDL in 2021, but the unit as a whole performed poorly, so I'm not sure that means much. He carried the team's 3rd highest cap hit in 2021 at $11.9M, and he did not play up to it. He turns 34 in early October 2022, and I am reminded that IDL Mebane was good for the Chargers on his first contract but not on his second. I think the Chargers should let Joseph walk, and I think they will.
- IDL Jones (UFA) - The Chargers need to overhaul their poor performing IDL, but with 3 UFAs, it seems unreasonable to think they will let all of them walk. IMO Jones tends to be a bit overrated on this site, but he seems like the best combination of performance, age, and likely price tag. His 2021 salary was $2.183M. I assume the team will sign him to something like a 3 year, $13M contract with an out after two years. With a contract along those lines, I assume his 2022 cap hit will be $3M. This article compares him to Adam Butler, who signed a 2 year, $7.5M contract last offseason, which is in the same ballpark.
- IDL Covington (UFA) - Tillery is a lock for 2022, and I already assumed the team would keep Jones. I further assume they will keep 1-2 of Gaziano, Fehoko, and Merrill (more on them later). Given the need to upgrade this unit, IMO Covington isn't good enough to stick, and I assume he is gone.
- LB White (UFA) - White had the 4th highest PFF grade on the Chargers defense, though it must be pointed out that the Chargers defense was bad, so that helped his relative standing. The team is no doubt hoping Murray will finally take a big step forward toward fulfilling the potential the team saw when it moved up to draft him in 2020, but I don't see how it can count on that, so it isn't enough to rely on just Murray and Tranquill in 2022. Given all of the other needs, it seems to me that the right move is to re-sign White to resolve the LB group and focus draft capital and bigger free agent signing in other position groups. This article predicts he will sign a 3 year, $25M contract with the Chargers. I could see that and assume cap hits would break down something like $5M in 2022, $8M in 2023, and $12M in 2024, with an out for the team before that last year. So I assume $5M in 2022.
- CB Harris (UFA) - Harris turns 33 in June. His play fell off quite a bit from his time in Denver to his time with the Chargers. At his age and pricetag, the team should let him walk, and I assume they will.
- CB Smith (UFA) - Smith was signed to be a special teams ace, but only played 59 snaps before he was out for the season due to injury. His PFF special teams grade was #51 out of 64 graded players, which obviously isn't good. He also didn't grade well in 2020 on special teams, and he hasn't played significant snaps at corner since 2018. I assume the team will let him walk.
- S Marshall (UFA) - Marshall was claimed off waivers after final roster cuts last September. He played 197 snaps and was solid in run defense but terrible at tackling and coverage, which seem important to the safety position. PFF also gave him its second lowest grade for special teams on the Chargers in 2021. With all of the draft picks this the upcoming draft, the team should be able to find an upgrade, and I assume they will ultimately let him walk, whether they first re-sign him to be a camp body or not.
- WR/KR Roberts (UFA) - Roberts made a big positive impact on the team's kickoff returns when he was signed midseason, and he was fine on punt returns until the final game. He didn't have a target on offense but did run the ball 3 times for 19 yards. He just turned 34. So he doesn't offer much on offense. The question is whether the team wants to dedicate a roster spot solely to a returner who doesn't make any other real contribution. Given that he helped the team, I think they will do that. Roberts played for the minimum last season, and I assume they sign him to a 1 year contract at the minimum salary of $1.12M.
- PK Hopkins (UFA) - Hopkins helped to stabilize the team's placekicking when he was brought in midseason, and I think he will be re-signed. Hopkins played for the minimum last season, and I assume the team will sign him to a 1 year contract at the minimum salary of $1.12M.
- P Long (RFA) - Long performed poorly this season and probably contributed to getting Special Teams Coordinator Swinton fired. Per PFF, 34 punters attempted at least 20 punts in 2021, and Long graded out at #31. I think the team will let him go and draft a punter with one of its 6 picks in the 6th and 7th rounds of the draft. Hopefully, "Punt God" Matt Araiza in the 6th.
- LS Overton (UFA) - The team needs a long snapper, and Overton played well in 2021. PFF graded him with the 5th highest grade out of 64 graded special teams players for the Chargers. It seems possible the team could target a LS in the 7th round, as Daniel Popper predicted in his Mock Draft 1.0 (more on that later). But for this exercise, I assume they will sign him to a 1 or 2 year contract at the minimum salary for 2022 of $1.12M.
So I am assuming the team will bring back 11 more internal free agents, in addition to the 4 already re-signed. The breakdown makes some sense -- 9 back for a strong offense, just 3 back for a weak defense, and 3 of 4 back for a special teams unit that improved over the course of the season, including 2 guys signed midseason who directly contributed to that improvement.
That said, I'm probably going to miss on a few of these players, since it seems surprising to think the team would bring back 15 internal free agents, especially given all of the draft picks and cap space available this offseason. Nwosu seems the most likely candidate for me to be wrong about.
Exclusions from 2022 Final Roster
There are 51 players under contract, and I just assumed 11 more internal free agents will return, which totals to 62 players, so I am 9 over the final 53 man roster limit without any draft picks or external free agents. So obviously not all 62 of those players will make the final roster.
First, I assume there will be one cap casualty -- RT Bulaga. He was an expensive free agent signing in the 2020 offseason, but has played just 11 games and 490 snaps since then, and he played poorly in those limited snaps. The Chargers will save $10.75M in 2022 cap space by releasing him. Seems like a nobrainer.
I think these players are offseason/camp fodder and/or will be beaten out. So I do not expect them to make the final 2021 roster and will exclude them from my final roster projection in this post:
- WR Bandy
- Edge Brown
- LB Christiansen
- IDL Davis
- S DeLuca
- LB Egbule
- WR Ffrench
- CB Hall
- G Hunter
- TE Kampmoyer
- LB Lloyd
- IDL Merrill
- WR Moore
- LB Ogbongbemiga
- WR Reed
- RB Rountree
- T Sarell
Removing those 18 players gets me back to 44, leaving just 9 spots for draft picks and external free agents, which is almost certainly not enough. The best way to solve this IMO is to cut a few more players, like QB3 Stick and FB Nabers, but I'm not confident the team will do it... more on this later.
Draft Picks
Per OTC, the Chargers are currently set to have these 2021 draft picks:
- 1.17 (17)
- 3.15 (79)
- 4.18 (122)
- 5.17 (160)
- 6.16 (194)
- 6.37 (215) - compensatory pick
- 7.15 (234)
- 7.34 (253) - compensatory pick
- 7.35 (254) - compensatory pick
- 7.37 (256) - compensatory pick
For purposes of this post, I assume the team will not make any additional trades involving draft picks and will use all of these picks, although this might actually be a year where trading picks makes more sense than in the past, given the high number of picks.
For example, I would love to think the team could trade back a few spots in the first round and pick up a second round pick to replace the one traded for Mack, perhaps bundling 1-2 of the 6th and/or 7th round picks to do it. But I'm not going to assume that, since Telesco has never traded back, only up.
I suppose a trade up could work if the team gave up its 3rd round pick and a 6th to move into the 2nd. But I'm not smart enough about draft pick valuation to know if there is any real viable trade up scenario that would likely appeal to the Chargers and any prospective trade partner. So I'm assuming no more trades for purposes of this exercise.
I think only 2 players Telesco has drafted since 2015 failed to make the final roster in their first season, and both were injured -- Dylan Cantrell and Donovan Clark. I don't see that trend continuing in 2022. I am going to guess that only 7 of 10 picks (if all picks are actually made) will make it. The others might make the practice squad, but I'm not attempting to predict the practice squad here.
For purposes of projecting cap space, I will take the most conservative approach and assume the bottom 3 picks are the ones that don't make it.
Daniel Popper's Mock Draft 1.0
Here are the players Popper drafted in his first mock draft:
- Round 1, Pick 17: Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia
- Round 2, Pick 48: Daniel Faalele, OT, Minnesota
- Round 3, Pick 79: Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota St.
- Round 4, Pick 122: Cam Taylor-Britt, DB, Nebraska
- Round 5, Pick 160: DeAngelo Malone, edge, Western Kentucky
- Round 6, Pick 194: Cade Mays, OL, Tennessee
- Round 6, Pick 215: D’Marco Jackson, LB, Appalachian State
- Round 7, Pick 234: Zonovan Knight, RB, North Carolina St
- Round 7, Pick 253: Percy Butler, S, Louisiana
- Round 7, Pick 254: Cordale Flott, CB, LSU
- Round 7, Pick 256: Cal Adomitis, LS, Pittsburgh
Adjusted Mock Draft
So here is a pretty uninformed mock draft that I adjusted from Popper's:
- Round 1, Pick 17: Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia
- Round 3, Pick 79: Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota St.
- Round 4, Pick 122: Cam Taylor-Britt, DB, Nebraska
- Round 5, Pick 160: Zonovan Knight, RB, North Carolina St
- Round 6, Pick 194: Cade Mays, OL, Tennessee
- Round 6, Pick 215: Matt Araiza, P, San Diego State
- Round 7, Pick 234: D’Marco Jackson, LB, Appalachian State
- Round 7, Pick 253: Percy Butler, S, Louisiana
- Round 7, Pick 254: Cordale Flott, CB, LSU
- Round 7, Pick 256: Cal Adomitis, LS, Pittsburgh
The players in bolded italics are changed from Popper's. I moved Knight up to the 5th, switched the second 6th round pick to Araiza, and assumed Jackson, who had been Popper's pick 215, would slide to the team's first 7th round pick, where Popper had drafted Knight.
Working Roster and Cap Commitment
Based on my assumptions above, here is what the working revised roster would look like without accounting for external free agents (* identifies assumed cap hits; ** identifies the draft picks I assume will make the final roster):
Pos | Player | Cap Number |
Edge | Joey Bosa | $28,250,000 |
WR | Keenan Allen | $19,200,000 |
Edge | Khalil Mack | $17,750,000 |
WR | Mike Williams | $14,000,000 |
C | Corey Linsley | $11,600,000 |
CB | Michael Davis | $9,352,941 |
S | Derwin James | $9,052,000 |
LG | Matt Feiler | $7,500,000 |
QB | Justin Herbert | $7,248,751 |
RB | Austin Ekeler | $7,000,000 |
LB | Kyzir White | $5,000,000 |
Edge | Uchenna Nwosu | $4,000,000 |
LT | Rashawn Slater | $3,779,945 |
IDL | Jerry Tillery | $3,634,323 |
LB | Kenneth Murray | $3,538,621 |
Draft Pick 1.17 (17) | $3,031,473 | |
IDL | Justin Jones | $3,000,000 |
S | Nasir Adderley | $2,905,384 |
LB | Drue Tranquill | $2,704,702 |
CB | Asante Samuel Jr. | $1,641,579 |
TE | Stephen Anderson | $1,500,000 |
T | Trey Pipkins | $1,184,269 |
WR | Josh Palmer | $1,143,649 |
QB | Chase Daniel | $1,120,000 |
PK | Dustin Hopkins | $1,120,000 |
LS | Doug Overton | $1,120,000 |
WR/KR | Andre Roberts | $1,120,000 |
G | Michael Schofield | $1,120,000 |
RB | Joshua Kelley | $1,090,086 |
TE | Tre' McKitty | $1,087,693 |
RB | Justin Jackson | $1,035,000 |
C | Scott Quessenberry | $1,035,000 |
QB | Easton Stick | $1,034,655 |
Edge | Chris Rumph II | $1,013,385 |
Draft Pick 3.15 (79) | $1,004,435 | |
Draft Pick 4.18 (122) | $921,893 | |
CB | Tevaughn Campbell | $965,000 |
WR | Jalen Guyton | $965,000 |
S | Alohi Gilman | $941,969 |
G | Brenden Jaimes | $904,449 |
IDL | Joe Gaziano | $895,000 |
FB | Gabe Nabers | $895,000 |
T | Storm Norton | $895,000 |
TE | Donald Parham | $895,000 |
LB | Nick Niemann | $878,502 |
S | Mark Webb | $850,022 |
IDL | Breiden Fehoko | $825,000 |
Draft Pick 5.17 (160) | $798,852 | |
Draft Pick 6.16 (194) | $756,780 | |
Draft Pick 6.37 (215) | $743,853 | |
Draft Pick 7.15 (234) | $734,332 | |
Total | $194,783,543 |
Working Roster Breakdown
That working list includes 44 veteran players, plus 7 draft picks. Here is how the veteran players break down positionally:
Offense (23):
- QB (3) - Herbert, Daniel, Stick
- RB (3) - Ekeler, Jackson, Kelley
- FB (1) - Nabers
- WR (5) - Allen, Williams, Guyton, Palmer, Roberts
- TE (3) - Anderson, Parham, McKitty
- OL (8) - LT Slater, LG Feiler, C Linsley, G Schofield, T Norton, T Pipkins, C Quessenberry, G Jaimes
Defense (19):
- Edge (4) - Bosa, Mack, Nwosu, Rumph
- IDL (4) - Jones, Tillery, Gaziano, Fehoko
- LB (4) - White, Tranquill, Murray, Niemann
- CB (3) - Davis, Samuel, Campbell
- S (4) - James, Adderley, Gilman, Webb
Special Teams (2):
- PK (1) - Hopkins
- P (0) -
- LS (1) - Overton
Comments on that nucleus:
- IMO the offense needs 4 players IMO, ordered in my view of the rough order of importance:
- Starting RT -- I'm fine with Pipkins and Norton providing tackle depth, but not ready to enter a season without a player better than them starting -- could be a veteran or rookie, but probably a veteran would work best.
- TE1, since I assume Cook is gone and I'm not ready to believe that the trio of Anderson, Parham, and McKitty are experienced enough to absorb this role -- needs to be a veteran free agent.
- Bigger RB who can successfully provide a contrasting style to Ekeler that Kelley and Rountree could not -- could be a veteran or rookie. If it is a veteran, then that player could ultimately push both Kelley and Rountree of the final roster.
- A WR to inject speed into the WR corps, ideally a player who can not only get deep but also play well in the slot -- could be a veteran or rookie, but I think a rookie is the way to go here.
- Two possible adjustments to help clear space for all of those needs on offense:
- Don't roster 3 QBs, whether that means dropping Daniel or Stick. I would keep Daniel on the active roster and drop Stick to the practice squad. I see zero reason to think there is a real threat of another team signing Stick off the PS, and he can be elevated on gamedays if he is actually ever needed.
- Don't roster Nabers. Last season, he only played 47 snaps on offense and was a poor performer. Per PFF, he was the second worst Chargers player graded at run blocking, and he got the lowest pass blocking grade I have ever seen. While he got a good receiving grade, he only caught 3 passes for 17 yards and 0 first downs... no impact. In addition, he was a weak special teams player who played just 138 special teams snaps. With 4 TEs, it should be easy enough to flex a TE like Anderson or McKitty into a FB/H-back role for as few snaps as the offense uses that role. And, again, they can always elevate him from the practice squad if necessary.
- IMO the defense needs 6 players:
- 2 IDL players, at least one of whom should ideally be a day 1 starter -- if this player comes from the draft, it implies a first round pick to me... that is how important this need is. The priority for these 2 players is to bolster the run defense; any pass rush gains would be icing on the cake, but IMO should not be the focus. At least one should come from the draft.
- 2 cornerbacks, at least one of whom is starter-caliber outside or in the slot (Harris replacement). At least one should come from the draft.
- On special teams, there is one need, but I could see another couple of changes to that unit:
- Obviously, the team must acquire a punter -- I hope Araiza makes it to them in the 6th round. If not, I think a veteran upgrade on Long would be best, but I could see using one of the late draft picks in the 6th or 7th rounds on a good prospect other than Araiza if there are other good candidates.
- I could see the team using a 7th round pick on a PK to compete with Hopkins, though I would expect Hopkins to win the job.
- I could see the team drafting a long snapper in the 7th to upgrade Overton.
- Assuming the team adds speed at WR, it seems possible that player could also possibly handle kickoff returns, in which case Roberts could be expendable.
Adding 4 offensive players, 4 defensive players, and a punter is 1 perfectly matches the number of roster spots I have not allocated to veterans in the working roster above. However, that assumes the team signs only 2 external free agents to fill the other two.
But I would like to see the team address 4 of those needs with external veteran free agents -- starting RT, starting TE1, 1 of the IDLs, and 1 of the CBs.
That could imply that two more of the veterans and/or draft picks in my working roster would have to go. I would make that Stick and Nabers. But... what if the draft picks were those in my adjusted mock draft earlier in the post, and the team did sign external veteran free agents (EVFA) at the positions I mentioned? Then the working roster would look like this:
Offense (26):
- QB (3) - Herbert, Daniel, Stick
- RB (3) - Ekeler, Knight (R), Kelley
- FB (1) - Nabers
- WR (5) - Allen, Williams, Guyton, Palmer, Watson (R)
- TE (4) - EVFA TE1, Anderson, Parham, McKitty
- OL (10) - LT Slater, LG Feiler, C Linsley, G Schofield, EVFA starting RT, T Norton, T Pipkins, C Quessenberry, G Jaimes, OL Mays (R)
Defense (24):
- Edge (4) - Bosa, Mack, Nwosu, Rumph
- IDL (6) - Davis (R), Jones, Tillery, rotational/depth EVFA, Gaziano, Fehoko
- LB (4) - White, Tranquill, Murray, Niemann
- CB (5) - EVFA CB1, Davis, Samuel, Campbell, Taylor-Britt (R)
- S (4) - James, Adderley, Gilman, Webb, Butler (R)
Special Teams (3):
- PK (1) - Hopkins
- P (1) - Araiza (R)
- LS (1) - Adomitis (R)
I guessed that LB Jackson and CB Flott would be the 2 draft picks that would not make the final roster. I chose 7th rounder Butler as the last guy to make it based on Popper's comments that he would be drafted due to his production as a gunner on the punt team.
I was able to have 8 of the 10 draft picks make the final roster, since drafting Knight replaces two veterans, RB Jackson and KR Roberts.
This is what the revised roster cap hits would look like, excluding the 4 EVFAs:
Pos | Player | Cap Number |
Edge | Joey Bosa | $28,250,000 |
WR | Keenan Allen | $19,200,000 |
Edge | Khalil Mack | $17,750,000 |
WR | Mike Williams | $14,000,000 |
C | Corey Linsley | $11,600,000 |
CB | Michael Davis | $9,352,941 |
S | Derwin James | $9,052,000 |
LG | Matt Feiler | $7,500,000 |
QB | Justin Herbert | $7,248,751 |
RB | Austin Ekeler | $7,000,000 |
LB | Kyzir White | $5,000,000 |
Edge | Uchenna Nwosu | $4,000,000 |
LT | Rashawn Slater | $3,779,945 |
IDL | Jerry Tillery | $3,634,323 |
LB | Kenneth Murray | $3,538,621 |
IDL | Davis, Jordan | $3,031,473 |
IDL | Justin Jones | $3,000,000 |
S | Nasir Adderley | $2,905,384 |
LB | Drue Tranquill | $2,704,702 |
CB | Asante Samuel Jr. | $1,641,579 |
TE | Stephen Anderson | $1,500,000 |
T | Trey Pipkins | $1,184,269 |
WR | Josh Palmer | $1,143,649 |
QB | Chase Daniel | $1,120,000 |
PK | Dustin Hopkins | $1,120,000 |
LS | Doug Overton | $1,120,000 |
G | Michael Schofield | $1,120,000 |
RB | Joshua Kelley | $1,090,086 |
TE | Tre' McKitty | $1,087,693 |
C | Scott Quessenberry | $1,035,000 |
QB | Easton Stick | $1,034,655 |
Edge | Chris Rumph II | $1,013,385 |
WR | Watson, Christian | $1,004,435 |
DB | Taylor-Britt, Cam | $921,893 |
CB | Tevaughn Campbell | $965,000 |
WR | Jalen Guyton | $965,000 |
S | Alohi Gilman | $941,969 |
G | Brenden Jaimes | $904,449 |
IDL | Joe Gaziano | $895,000 |
FB | Gabe Nabers | $895,000 |
T | Storm Norton | $895,000 |
TE | Donald Parham | $895,000 |
LB | Nick Niemann | $878,502 |
S | Mark Webb | $850,022 |
IDL | Breiden Fehoko | $825,000 |
RB/KR | Knight, Zonovan ("Bam") | $798,852 |
OL | Mays, Cade | $756,780 |
P | Araiza, Matt | $743,853 |
S | Butler, Percy | $727,665 |
Total | $192,621,876 |
OK, having examined the working roster and identified internal and external free agent needs and possible draft picks, let's turn back to the salary cap.
Practice Squad and Injury Replacements
- I need to account for the practice squad:
- The practice squad rules in the 2020 CBA allowed teams to have up to 12 practice squad players in the 2020 and 2021 seasons, expanded to up to 14 players beginning in the 2022 season. However, the NFL increased that maximum number to 16 for 2020 and 2021 due to COVID, and I assume they do that again in 2022.
- I'm not sure where to find the data to see if the Chargers took full advantage of that rule change and carried 16 practice squad players throughout the 2021 season. To be conservative, I assume they will carry the max.
- For 2022, up to 4 of the 16 practice squad players can be veterans with no limitations on accrued seasons. To be conservative, I assume the Chargers will carry 4 of these veterans. These players earn between $15,400 and $19,900 per week on the practice squad. I assume these 4 players will average the midpoint between those salaries, $17,650 per week. For 18 weeks, that is $317,700 per player.
- The other 12 practice squad players earn $11,500 per week. For 18 weeks, that is $207K per player.
- The CBA allows 2 practice squad players to be activated every week, and those players get paid at NFL minimum salary level. I am not sure where to find data on how often the Chargers have activated practice squad players for gamedays.
- In 2022, the NFL minimum salary is $705K.
- I assume the Chargers will activate an average of 1 player per gameday, understanding that sometimes it might be two and sometimes zero.
- To be conservative, I assume it is always one of the 12 lower paid practice squad players, which maximizes the delta between the practice squad and active roster salary at $27,667 per game. For 17 weeks, that is an added $470,333.
Accounting for all of that results in a total cost of $4,225,133 for the practice squad.
The team will also need to reserve some cap space for 2022 in season injury replacements. If the Chargers need the equivalent of 3 full-time replacement players for 17 games each, with 1 each at 0, 1, and 2 credited seasons, that requires setting aside $2.425M. To be conservative, I will round up to $3M.
Functional Salary Cap Space
Now, taking everything posted above into account, I can determine an estimate of the team's functionally availble cap space based on these facts and assumptions:
- The 2022 salary cap is set at $208.2M.
- However, due to a rollover from 2021 and other adjustments, OTC is showing the Chargers cap is $215,828,112. Spotrac shows it slight lower, at $215.8M. I will use the lower number.
- As noted above:
- The 49 players I identified in that last working roster above have a combined cap hit of $192,621,876.
- The practice squad will have an estimated cap hit of $4,225,133.
- I assume the team will reserve $3M for 2022 in season injury replacements.
Do the math, and that leaves $15,952,991 in available 2022 cap space to sign the 4 EVFAs I identified above, including starters at RT, TE1, and CB1 and a rotational IDL.
That is a challenging group to sign for that amount, and Telesco also doesn't typically spend right up to the max, meaning the functional cap space might be more reasonably viewed to be $12M to $13M.
I think there is a good chance they will extend James' contract this offseason, which could lower his 2022 cap hit of $9M. But I'm not sure that will be enough to bridge the gap. Maybe by structuring the contracts properly will fit the first year 2022 cap hits into this amount. The CB1 that I am hoping for is probably the most challenging of them to fit.
This could mean that I was too optimistic in believing all of the internal free agents will be back, most notably LB White and/or Edge Nwosu.
Conclusion
It took me a while to organize my thinking on all of this and put this post together. I probably made a few mistakes, but I want to get it posted to provide a starting point to discuss roster and free agent decisions.
Hoping for some great discussion!
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