FanPost

2022 Roster Thoughts - Entering Free Agency

Free agency effectively starts on Monday, so I figured it was a good time to update my 2022 roster thoughts. This is the second post in this series; the first is here: 2022 Roster Thoughts - Entering Offseason.

Active Contracts

The Chargers currently have 51 players under contract for 2022. Here they are, along with their cap hits from OTC:

Pos Player Cap Number
Edge Joey Bosa $28,250,000
WR Keenan Allen $19,200,000
Edge Khalil Mack $17,750,000
RT Bryan Bulaga $14,083,334
WR Mike Williams $14,000,000
C Corey Linsley $11,600,000
CB Michael Davis $9,352,941
S Derwin James $9,052,000
LG Matt Feiler $7,500,000
QB Justin Herbert $7,248,751
RB Austin Ekeler $7,000,000
LT Rashawn Slater $3,779,945
IDL Jerry Tillery $3,634,323
LB Kenneth Murray $3,538,621
S Nasir Adderley $2,905,384
LB Drue Tranquill $2,704,702
CB Asante Samuel Jr. $1,641,579
T Trey Pipkins $1,184,269
WR Josh Palmer $1,143,649
RB Joshua Kelley $1,090,086
TE Tre' McKitty $1,087,693
QB Easton Stick $1,034,655
Edge Chris Rumph II $1,013,385
CB Tevaughn Campbell $965,000
LB Emeke Egbule $965,000
WR Jalen Guyton $965,000
S Alohi Gilman $941,969
G Brenden Jaimes $904,449
Edge Andrew Brown $895,000
LB Cole Christiansen $895,000
IDL Joe Gaziano $895,000
WR Jason Moore $895,000
FB Gabe Nabers $895,000
T Storm Norton $895,000
TE Donald Parham $895,000
LB Nick Niemann $878,502
WR Joe Reed $875,000
RB Larry Rountree III $868,941
S Mark Webb $850,022
LB Amen Ogbongbemiga $830,000
IDL Jamal Davis $827,500
S Ben DeLuca $825,000
IDL Breiden Fehoko $825,000
WR Maurice Ffrench $825,000
CB Kemon Hall $825,000
G Ryan Hunter $825,000
IDL Forrest Merrill $825,000
WR Michael Bandy $705,000
TE Hunter Kampmoyer $705,000
LB Damon Lloyd $705,000
T Foster Sarell $705,000
Total $193,701,700

Internal Free Agents

In my January post, I predicted the Chargers would keep 15 of their internal free agents, including WR Williams, WR Guyton, TE Parham, and T Norton, all of whom have been re-signed.

That leaves them with 21 unsigned free agents. Here are my thoughts on them:

So I am assuming the team will bring back 11 more internal free agents, in addition to the 4 already re-signed. The breakdown makes some sense -- 9 back for a strong offense, just 3 back for a weak defense, and 3 of 4 back for a special teams unit that improved over the course of the season, including 2 guys signed midseason who directly contributed to that improvement.

That said, I'm probably going to miss on a few of these players, since it seems surprising to think the team would bring back 15 internal free agents, especially given all of the draft picks and cap space available this offseason. Nwosu seems the most likely candidate for me to be wrong about.

Exclusions from 2022 Final Roster

There are 51 players under contract, and I just assumed 11 more internal free agents will return, which totals to 62 players, so I am 9 over the final 53 man roster limit without any draft picks or external free agents. So obviously not all 62 of those players will make the final roster.

First, I assume there will be one cap casualty -- RT Bulaga. He was an expensive free agent signing in the 2020 offseason, but has played just 11 games and 490 snaps since then, and he played poorly in those limited snaps. The Chargers will save $10.75M in 2022 cap space by releasing him. Seems like a nobrainer.

I think these players are offseason/camp fodder and/or will be beaten out. So I do not expect them to make the final 2021 roster and will exclude them from my final roster projection in this post:

  1. WR Bandy
  2. Edge Brown
  3. LB Christiansen
  4. IDL Davis
  5. S DeLuca
  6. LB Egbule
  7. WR Ffrench
  8. CB Hall
  9. G Hunter
  10. TE Kampmoyer
  11. LB Lloyd
  12. IDL Merrill
  13. WR Moore
  14. LB Ogbongbemiga
  15. WR Reed
  16. RB Rountree
  17. T Sarell

Removing those 18 players gets me back to 44, leaving just 9 spots for draft picks and external free agents, which is almost certainly not enough. The best way to solve this IMO is to cut a few more players, like QB3 Stick and FB Nabers, but I'm not confident the team will do it... more on this later.

Draft Picks

Per OTC, the Chargers are currently set to have these 2021 draft picks:

  1. 1.17 (17)
  2. 3.15 (79)
  3. 4.18 (122)
  4. 5.17 (160)
  5. 6.16 (194)
  6. 6.37 (215) - compensatory pick
  7. 7.15 (234)
  8. 7.34 (253) - compensatory pick
  9. 7.35 (254) - compensatory pick
  10. 7.37 (256) - compensatory pick

For purposes of this post, I assume the team will not make any additional trades involving draft picks and will use all of these picks, although this might actually be a year where trading picks makes more sense than in the past, given the high number of picks.

For example, I would love to think the team could trade back a few spots in the first round and pick up a second round pick to replace the one traded for Mack, perhaps bundling 1-2 of the 6th and/or 7th round picks to do it. But I'm not going to assume that, since Telesco has never traded back, only up.

I suppose a trade up could work if the team gave up its 3rd round pick and a 6th to move into the 2nd. But I'm not smart enough about draft pick valuation to know if there is any real viable trade up scenario that would likely appeal to the Chargers and any prospective trade partner. So I'm assuming no more trades for purposes of this exercise.

I think only 2 players Telesco has drafted since 2015 failed to make the final roster in their first season, and both were injured -- Dylan Cantrell and Donovan Clark. I don't see that trend continuing in 2022. I am going to guess that only 7 of 10 picks (if all picks are actually made) will make it. The others might make the practice squad, but I'm not attempting to predict the practice squad here.

For purposes of projecting cap space, I will take the most conservative approach and assume the bottom 3 picks are the ones that don't make it.

Daniel Popper's Mock Draft 1.0

Here are the players Popper drafted in his first mock draft:

  • Round 1, Pick 17: Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia
  • Round 2, Pick 48: Daniel Faalele, OT, Minnesota
  • Round 3, Pick 79: Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota St.
  • Round 4, Pick 122: Cam Taylor-Britt, DB, Nebraska
  • Round 5, Pick 160: DeAngelo Malone, edge, Western Kentucky
  • Round 6, Pick 194: Cade Mays, OL, Tennessee
  • Round 6, Pick 215: D’Marco Jackson, LB, Appalachian State
  • Round 7, Pick 234: Zonovan Knight, RB, North Carolina St
  • Round 7, Pick 253: Percy Butler, S, Louisiana
  • Round 7, Pick 254: Cordale Flott, CB, LSU
  • Round 7, Pick 256: Cal Adomitis, LS, Pittsburgh
This draft was posted before the Mack trade, so obviously the second round pick is gone now. However, the team can solve that need by signing a veteran free agent RT to start (more on this later).

I love the Bam Knight pick, but I am skeptical he will be there that late. But, if he is available there, he could push both Justin Jackson and Andre Roberts off the roster. His skill set is similar to Jackson's, and he led the NCAA in yards per kickoff return in 2021 and scored 3 KO return TDs in 30 career returns. The more I think about it, the more I like it. I think the team should take him in the 5th round, if available.

I love the last pick. While Overton played well, and I am fine keeping him in 2022, he will be 37 in July. A younger player might be able to help more with the needed improvement in the punt coverage unit.

I would also like to see Araiza drafted in the 6th round if he lasts that long.

Adjusted Mock Draft

So here is a pretty uninformed mock draft that I adjusted from Popper's:

  • Round 1, Pick 17: Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia
  • Round 3, Pick 79: Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota St.
  • Round 4, Pick 122: Cam Taylor-Britt, DB, Nebraska
  • Round 5, Pick 160: Zonovan Knight, RB, North Carolina St
  • Round 6, Pick 194: Cade Mays, OL, Tennessee
  • Round 6, Pick 215: Matt Araiza, P, San Diego State
  • Round 7, Pick 234: D’Marco Jackson, LB, Appalachian State
  • Round 7, Pick 253: Percy Butler, S, Louisiana
  • Round 7, Pick 254: Cordale Flott, CB, LSU
  • Round 7, Pick 256: Cal Adomitis, LS, Pittsburgh

The players in bolded italics are changed from Popper's. I moved Knight up to the 5th, switched the second 6th round pick to Araiza, and assumed Jackson, who had been Popper's pick 215, would slide to the team's first 7th round pick, where Popper had drafted Knight.

Working Roster and Cap Commitment

Based on my assumptions above, here is what the working revised roster would look like without accounting for external free agents (* identifies assumed cap hits; ** identifies the draft picks I assume will make the final roster):

Pos Player Cap Number
Edge Joey Bosa $28,250,000
WR Keenan Allen $19,200,000
Edge Khalil Mack $17,750,000
WR Mike Williams $14,000,000
C Corey Linsley $11,600,000
CB Michael Davis $9,352,941
S Derwin James $9,052,000
LG Matt Feiler $7,500,000
QB Justin Herbert $7,248,751
RB Austin Ekeler $7,000,000
LB Kyzir White $5,000,000
Edge Uchenna Nwosu $4,000,000
LT Rashawn Slater $3,779,945
IDL Jerry Tillery $3,634,323
LB Kenneth Murray $3,538,621
Draft Pick 1.17 (17) $3,031,473
IDL Justin Jones $3,000,000
S Nasir Adderley $2,905,384
LB Drue Tranquill $2,704,702
CB Asante Samuel Jr. $1,641,579
TE Stephen Anderson $1,500,000
T Trey Pipkins $1,184,269
WR Josh Palmer $1,143,649
QB Chase Daniel $1,120,000
PK Dustin Hopkins $1,120,000
LS Doug Overton $1,120,000
WR/KR Andre Roberts $1,120,000
G Michael Schofield $1,120,000
RB Joshua Kelley $1,090,086
TE Tre' McKitty $1,087,693
RB Justin Jackson $1,035,000
C Scott Quessenberry $1,035,000
QB Easton Stick $1,034,655
Edge Chris Rumph II $1,013,385
Draft Pick 3.15 (79) $1,004,435
Draft Pick 4.18 (122) $921,893
CB Tevaughn Campbell $965,000
WR Jalen Guyton $965,000
S Alohi Gilman $941,969
G Brenden Jaimes $904,449
IDL Joe Gaziano $895,000
FB Gabe Nabers $895,000
T Storm Norton $895,000
TE Donald Parham $895,000
LB Nick Niemann $878,502
S Mark Webb $850,022
IDL Breiden Fehoko $825,000
Draft Pick 5.17 (160) $798,852
Draft Pick 6.16 (194) $756,780
Draft Pick 6.37 (215) $743,853
Draft Pick 7.15 (234) $734,332
Total $194,783,543

Working Roster Breakdown

That working list includes 44 veteran players, plus 7 draft picks. Here is how the veteran players break down positionally:

Offense (23):

  • QB (3) - Herbert, Daniel, Stick
  • RB (3) - Ekeler, Jackson, Kelley
  • FB (1) - Nabers
  • WR (5) - Allen, Williams, Guyton, Palmer, Roberts
  • TE (3) - Anderson, Parham, McKitty
  • OL (8) - LT Slater, LG Feiler, C Linsley, G Schofield, T Norton, T Pipkins, C Quessenberry, G Jaimes

Defense (19):

  • Edge (4) - Bosa, Mack, Nwosu, Rumph
  • IDL (4) - Jones, Tillery, Gaziano, Fehoko
  • LB (4) - White, Tranquill, Murray, Niemann
  • CB (3) - Davis, Samuel, Campbell
  • S (4) - James, Adderley, Gilman, Webb

Special Teams (2):

  • PK (1) - Hopkins
  • P (0) -
  • LS (1) - Overton

Comments on that nucleus:

  • IMO the offense needs 4 players IMO, ordered in my view of the rough order of importance:
    • Starting RT -- I'm fine with Pipkins and Norton providing tackle depth, but not ready to enter a season without a player better than them starting -- could be a veteran or rookie, but probably a veteran would work best.
    • TE1, since I assume Cook is gone and I'm not ready to believe that the trio of Anderson, Parham, and McKitty are experienced enough to absorb this role -- needs to be a veteran free agent.
    • Bigger RB who can successfully provide a contrasting style to Ekeler that Kelley and Rountree could not -- could be a veteran or rookie. If it is a veteran, then that player could ultimately push both Kelley and Rountree of the final roster.
    • A WR to inject speed into the WR corps, ideally a player who can not only get deep but also play well in the slot -- could be a veteran or rookie, but I think a rookie is the way to go here.
  • Two possible adjustments to help clear space for all of those needs on offense:
  • IMO the defense needs 6 players:
    • 2 IDL players, at least one of whom should ideally be a day 1 starter -- if this player comes from the draft, it implies a first round pick to me... that is how important this need is. The priority for these 2 players is to bolster the run defense; any pass rush gains would be icing on the cake, but IMO should not be the focus. At least one should come from the draft.
    • 2 cornerbacks, at least one of whom is starter-caliber outside or in the slot (Harris replacement). At least one should come from the draft.
  • On special teams, there is one need, but I could see another couple of changes to that unit:
    • Obviously, the team must acquire a punter -- I hope Araiza makes it to them in the 6th round. If not, I think a veteran upgrade on Long would be best, but I could see using one of the late draft picks in the 6th or 7th rounds on a good prospect other than Araiza if there are other good candidates.
    • I could see the team using a 7th round pick on a PK to compete with Hopkins, though I would expect Hopkins to win the job.
    • I could see the team drafting a long snapper in the 7th to upgrade Overton.
    • Assuming the team adds speed at WR, it seems possible that player could also possibly handle kickoff returns, in which case Roberts could be expendable.

Adding 4 offensive players, 4 defensive players, and a punter is 1 perfectly matches the number of roster spots I have not allocated to veterans in the working roster above. However, that assumes the team signs only 2 external free agents to fill the other two.

But I would like to see the team address 4 of those needs with external veteran free agents -- starting RT, starting TE1, 1 of the IDLs, and 1 of the CBs.

That could imply that two more of the veterans and/or draft picks in my working roster would have to go. I would make that Stick and Nabers. But... what if the draft picks were those in my adjusted mock draft earlier in the post, and the team did sign external veteran free agents (EVFA) at the positions I mentioned? Then the working roster would look like this:

Offense (26):

  • QB (3) - Herbert, Daniel, Stick
  • RB (3) - Ekeler, Knight (R), Kelley
  • FB (1) - Nabers
  • WR (5) - Allen, Williams, Guyton, Palmer, Watson (R)
  • TE (4) - EVFA TE1, Anderson, Parham, McKitty
  • OL (10) - LT Slater, LG Feiler, C Linsley, G Schofield, EVFA starting RT, T Norton, T Pipkins, C Quessenberry, G Jaimes, OL Mays (R)

Defense (24):

  • Edge (4) - Bosa, Mack, Nwosu, Rumph
  • IDL (6) - Davis (R), Jones, Tillery, rotational/depth EVFA, Gaziano, Fehoko
  • LB (4) - White, Tranquill, Murray, Niemann
  • CB (5) - EVFA CB1, Davis, Samuel, Campbell, Taylor-Britt (R)
  • S (4) - James, Adderley, Gilman, Webb, Butler (R)

Special Teams (3):

  • PK (1) - Hopkins
  • P (1) - Araiza (R)
  • LS (1) - Adomitis (R)

I guessed that LB Jackson and CB Flott would be the 2 draft picks that would not make the final roster. I chose 7th rounder Butler as the last guy to make it based on Popper's comments that he would be drafted due to his production as a gunner on the punt team.

I was able to have 8 of the 10 draft picks make the final roster, since drafting Knight replaces two veterans, RB Jackson and KR Roberts.

This is what the revised roster cap hits would look like, excluding the 4 EVFAs:

Pos Player Cap Number
Edge Joey Bosa $28,250,000
WR Keenan Allen $19,200,000
Edge Khalil Mack $17,750,000
WR Mike Williams $14,000,000
C Corey Linsley $11,600,000
CB Michael Davis $9,352,941
S Derwin James $9,052,000
LG Matt Feiler $7,500,000
QB Justin Herbert $7,248,751
RB Austin Ekeler $7,000,000
LB Kyzir White $5,000,000
Edge Uchenna Nwosu $4,000,000
LT Rashawn Slater $3,779,945
IDL Jerry Tillery $3,634,323
LB Kenneth Murray $3,538,621
IDL Davis, Jordan $3,031,473
IDL Justin Jones $3,000,000
S Nasir Adderley $2,905,384
LB Drue Tranquill $2,704,702
CB Asante Samuel Jr. $1,641,579
TE Stephen Anderson $1,500,000
T Trey Pipkins $1,184,269
WR Josh Palmer $1,143,649
QB Chase Daniel $1,120,000
PK Dustin Hopkins $1,120,000
LS Doug Overton $1,120,000
G Michael Schofield $1,120,000
RB Joshua Kelley $1,090,086
TE Tre' McKitty $1,087,693
C Scott Quessenberry $1,035,000
QB Easton Stick $1,034,655
Edge Chris Rumph II $1,013,385
WR Watson, Christian $1,004,435
DB Taylor-Britt, Cam $921,893
CB Tevaughn Campbell $965,000
WR Jalen Guyton $965,000
S Alohi Gilman $941,969
G Brenden Jaimes $904,449
IDL Joe Gaziano $895,000
FB Gabe Nabers $895,000
T Storm Norton $895,000
TE Donald Parham $895,000
LB Nick Niemann $878,502
S Mark Webb $850,022
IDL Breiden Fehoko $825,000
RB/KR Knight, Zonovan ("Bam") $798,852
OL Mays, Cade $756,780
P Araiza, Matt $743,853
S Butler, Percy $727,665
Total $192,621,876

OK, having examined the working roster and identified internal and external free agent needs and possible draft picks, let's turn back to the salary cap.

Practice Squad and Injury Replacements

  • I need to account for the practice squad:
  • The practice squad rules in the 2020 CBA allowed teams to have up to 12 practice squad players in the 2020 and 2021 seasons, expanded to up to 14 players beginning in the 2022 season. However, the NFL increased that maximum number to 16 for 2020 and 2021 due to COVID, and I assume they do that again in 2022.
  • I'm not sure where to find the data to see if the Chargers took full advantage of that rule change and carried 16 practice squad players throughout the 2021 season. To be conservative, I assume they will carry the max.
  • For 2022, up to 4 of the 16 practice squad players can be veterans with no limitations on accrued seasons. To be conservative, I assume the Chargers will carry 4 of these veterans. These players earn between $15,400 and $19,900 per week on the practice squad. I assume these 4 players will average the midpoint between those salaries, $17,650 per week. For 18 weeks, that is $317,700 per player.
  • The other 12 practice squad players earn $11,500 per week. For 18 weeks, that is $207K per player.
  • The CBA allows 2 practice squad players to be activated every week, and those players get paid at NFL minimum salary level. I am not sure where to find data on how often the Chargers have activated practice squad players for gamedays.
    • In 2022, the NFL minimum salary is $705K.
    • I assume the Chargers will activate an average of 1 player per gameday, understanding that sometimes it might be two and sometimes zero.
    • To be conservative, I assume it is always one of the 12 lower paid practice squad players, which maximizes the delta between the practice squad and active roster salary at $27,667 per game. For 17 weeks, that is an added $470,333.

Accounting for all of that results in a total cost of $4,225,133 for the practice squad.

The team will also need to reserve some cap space for 2022 in season injury replacements. If the Chargers need the equivalent of 3 full-time replacement players for 17 games each, with 1 each at 0, 1, and 2 credited seasons, that requires setting aside $2.425M. To be conservative, I will round up to $3M.

Functional Salary Cap Space

Now, taking everything posted above into account, I can determine an estimate of the team's functionally availble cap space based on these facts and assumptions:

Do the math, and that leaves $15,952,991 in available 2022 cap space to sign the 4 EVFAs I identified above, including starters at RT, TE1, and CB1 and a rotational IDL.

That is a challenging group to sign for that amount, and Telesco also doesn't typically spend right up to the max, meaning the functional cap space might be more reasonably viewed to be $12M to $13M.

I think there is a good chance they will extend James' contract this offseason, which could lower his 2022 cap hit of $9M. But I'm not sure that will be enough to bridge the gap. Maybe by structuring the contracts properly will fit the first year 2022 cap hits into this amount. The CB1 that I am hoping for is probably the most challenging of them to fit.

This could mean that I was too optimistic in believing all of the internal free agents will be back, most notably LB White and/or Edge Nwosu.

Conclusion

It took me a while to organize my thinking on all of this and put this post together. I probably made a few mistakes, but I want to get it posted to provide a starting point to discuss roster and free agent decisions.

Hoping for some great discussion!

This FanPost was written by a member of the Bolts From The Blue community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bolts From The Blue editors or SB Nation.