Well, the Chargers have a losing record and we have a friend that bets on them every week. How do you think things are going for our beloved Degenerate Gambler? We really need to think about an intervention.
As you know, he takes it upon himself to put $100 on the line each week on bets that come to life or burn in agony on the gridiron. Last week the Chargers faced the Texans, and our anti-hero was rather insistent that he had no idea what to expect. That will probably be a trend for both of these teams throughout the season, as neither has maintained a consistent identity in offense or defense.
How did he do?
Week 3 Texans @ Chargers
- Wager 1 - Chargers win: $25 [-165] LOSS
- Wager 2 - Total points - Under 48.5: $25 [-110] W $22.73
- Wager 3 - Total Points - Texans - Under 21.5: $25 [-115] LOSS
- Wager 4 - Total Points - Chargers - Under 26.5: $25 [-110] W $22.73
TOTAL: $ (4.55)
You know, for a game where everything went wrong and things didn’t work out quite like we expected, a slight loss seems palatable to our gambling friend. He expected more of a defensive match, but the Texans over-performed in that regard. Funny enough, if the Chargers had pulled out that last touchdown and won the game, he’d be losing even more money from those bets. Sometimes you can’t win for losing!
And now the Chargers face the Miami Dolphins. Hmm.
The Degenerate Gambler was there when the strength of men fell. He was there when the Browns of Cleveland pummeled our beloved Bolts to score their only win of two helpless seasons. The Chargers know how to melt in the chasm of doom better than any other team of similar talent.
That said... Miami is still advertising its fire sale. This opens up some possibilities in the betting game. The current spread is -14.5 points for the Chargers, which is a ridiculous spread that the Degenerate Gambler will have nothing to do with. He’d rather take the Dolphins for the win at [+700] and hope to profit from a season-melting debacle.
That said, any reasonable bets this week are at a terrible negative value. For that reason, the Degenerate Gambler is going LONG for some big, big returns.
Week 4 Chargers @ Dolphins
- Wager 1 - Dolphins Total Points - Above 13.5: $35 [-105] Possible win: $33.33
- Wager 2 - Longest TD - Dolphins: $20 [+250] Possible win: $50.00
- Wager 3 - Will there be a safety - Yes: $10 [+750] Possible win: $75.00
- Wager 4 - Double Result - 1st tie/ 2nd Chargers Win: $10 [+1200] Possible win: $120.00
- Wager 5 - Special Teams TD - Yes: $25 [+205] Possible win: $51.25
TOTAL POSSIBLE WIN: $329.58
Alright, well, that’s just insane. None of those are good bets.
Looking deeper, let’s try to see if there’s a method to the madness. Okay, so if some wacky things happen (like a special teams TD or a safety), there’s a huge return on investment. The Degenerate Gambler originally had $5 on the first score being a safety for [+5000], but settled for there just being one at any point in the game.
This also marks the first Double Result bet of the Degenerate Gambler’s career. His bet is very far-fetched, but also (for an unlikely occurrence) believably possible. If both teams have the same score at the half (perhaps neither scores. Perhaps it’s 7-7. Perhaps it is 2-2 and our anti-hero just won the lottery), and then the Chargers win it in the end, he’ll pick up a cool $120 for his Hamilton bet.
He enjoys the odds on the longest TD bet because, truth be told, that’s almost a 50/50 proposition each game. The challenge for the Dolphins will be to actually score a TD at all. The Gambler feels that the Chargers are depleted enough (and sloppy enough against bottom feeder teams) to take his only negative-value bet of the day, a total score for the Dolphins of two touchdowns or more.
So, there we go. 5 stupid bets. The silly part is that any two of those bets hitting puts him at a considerable profit for the week. Going with these long-shot prop bets means that there’s still a chance to pull out a profit until the very last second of the 4th quarter. Hey, maybe that’s the magic formula to make a Dolphins game watchable!
-Jason “These bets do not necessarily represent the values or beliefs of the organization” Michaels