If you missed the Prologue, you can read about the Rebirth of the 4th Down Bot HERE. For everyone else, we’re going to jump right in to the data to see how the LA Chargers did against the odds in 2018.

2018:

• Week 1: 4/7 (57.1%)
• Week 2: 3/6 (50.0%)
• Week 3: 6/6 (100.0%)* A 1/6 correction noted between bot 1.0 and 2.0!
• Week 4: 6/8 (75.0%)

2018 1st Quarter season stats: 19/27 (70.3%) agreement

• Week 5: 3/5 (60.0%)
• Week 6: 6/6 (100.0%)
• Week 7: 3/5 (60.0%)
• Week 9: 7/7 (100.0%)

2018 2nd Quarter season stats: 19/23 (82.6%) agreement

Agreement with what, exactly? Well, that’s the 4th Down Bot (2.0)’s analysis of correct/incorrect moves on 4th down.

First, let’s call the 4th Down Bot (ver 2.0) back over here so that we can look at the chart:

2018: Part Three - Weeks 10-13

Now let’s compare these stats with previous seasons!

2018:

• Week 10: 6/7 (85.0%)
• Week 11: 3/5 (60.0%)
• Week 12: 5/5 (100.0%)
• Week 13: 4/5 (80.0%)

2018 3rd Quarter season stats: 18/22 (81.8%) agreement

2017:

• Week 10: 5/8 (62.5%)
• Week 11: 6/7 (85.0%)
• Week 12: 5/5 (100.9%)
• Week 13: 4/7 (57.1%)

2017 3rd Quarter season stats: 20/27 (74.0%) agreement

And to further the comparison and contrast, we’re throwing in the last year before Anthony Lynn:

2016:

• Week 10: 3/6 (50.0%)
• Week 11: 5/5 (100.0%)
• Week 12: 4/6 (66.0%)
• Week 13: 4/4 (100.0%)

2016 3rd Quarter season stats: 16/21 (76.1%) agreement

Are you surprised by these results? Coach Lynn increased his statistical agreement from 70.3 to 82.6 between quarters 1 and 2 (a 17.49% increase!).

It is important to remember that Michael Badgley was still new at this point, and this stretch marked the one game this year where a miss of his made the difference between winning and losing.

We have seen a gradual change in Anthony Lynn’s coaching style. After an admittedly rough first season, he’s beginning to really settle down and trust his players to make plays. He “went for it” on 4th down 2 times out of the suggested 6. That’s not good (33.3%), but it’s still statistically ahead of the rest of the league (16.2%). What’s more, Lynn was rewarded each time he tried it during this stretch—both attempts converted!

Next time we will see how the final quarter of 2018 fared with the Chargers on 4th down!

NEXT WEEK: Lynn Vs. the 4th Down Bot - 4th Quarter 2018 (Weeks 14-17)

-Jason “Onward and Upward!” Michaels