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The 4th Down Bot Vs. 2018: Part Two

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How did the Chargers fare in the most pivotal down in football last year?

If you missed the Prologue, you can read about the Rebirth of the 4th Down Bot HERE. For everyone else, we’re going to jump right in to the data to see how the LA Chargers did against the odds in 2018.

2018:

  • Week 1: 4/7 (57.1%)
  • Week 2: 3/6 (50.0%)
  • Week 3: 6/6 (100.0%)* A 1/6 correction noted between bot 1.0 and 2.0!
  • Week 4: 6/8 (75.0%)

2018 1st Quarter season stats: 19/27 (70.3%) agreement

Agreement with what, exactly? Well, that’s the 4th Down Bot (2.0)’s analysis of correct/incorrect moves on 4th down.

First, let’s call the 4th Down Bot (ver 2.0) back over here so that we can look at the chart:

The difference between Bot 1.0 and Bot 2.0 is a more aggressive push in the final minutes of each half. In all other matters, the above chart is identical for both models

2018: Part Two - Weeks 5-9

Now let’s compare these stats with previous seasons!

2018:

  • Week 5: 3/5 (60.0%)
  • Week 6: 6/6 (100.0%)
  • Week 7: 3/5 (60.0%)
  • Week 9: 7/7 (100.0%)

2018 2nd Quarter season stats: 19/23 (82.6%) agreement

2017:

  • Week 5: 6/8 (75.0%)
  • Week 6: 7/7 (100.0%)
  • Week 7: 8/9 (88.9%)
  • Week 9: 4/7 (57.1%)

2017 2nd Quarter season stats: 25/31 (80.6%) agreement

And to further the comparison and contrast, we’re throwing in the last year before Anthony Lynn:

2016:

  • Week 5: 1/3 (33.3%)
  • Week 6: 5/10 (50.0%)
  • Week 7: 5/6 (83.3%)
  • Week 9: 8/9 (88.8%)

2016 2nd Quarter season stats: 19/28 (67.8%) agreement


Are you surprised by these results?

Many think of Anthony Lynn as an aggressive coach: a loose cannon that could ‘go for two’ at any point. This exercise is ill-equipped to prove or disprove that notion. Instead, it illustrates whether or not coaches were more or less likely to follow good statistics for their 4th down calls.

While the agreement was not dramatic in the first quarter of 2018, Lynn is now settling in with a significantly above-average statistical agreement (the league average was 62.4% agreement in 2018).

What’s more, with the Sturgis era now firmly behind us, we begin to see that Anthony Lynn can and SHOULD trust the Money Badger for all that he’s worth!

NEXT WEEK: Lynn Vs. the 4th Down Bot - 3rd Quarter 2018 (Weeks 10-13)

-Jason “Oh right, I forgot about this project” Michaels