clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

NFL Bets: The Degenerate Gambler’s luck runs out

Last week was so, so, so very close. That’s betting, folks!

Many were chewing their fingernails last week wondering whether or not the Degenerate Gambler’s long-ball picks would work out. As things would have it, they did not.

The Chargers have a history of gifting hope to tanking teams, such as the Browns during their 1-31 period. For that reason, the Degenerate Gambler was afraid of the enormous spread that Vegas had put forth. As things would have it, the Chargers covered that spread after all. Road warriors again, perhaps?

As you remember, our anti-hero puts $100 on the line each week with the ultimate goal of ending the season on a positive note. When there are no ‘reasonable’ bets, he might opt for some long-shot prop bets, as he clearly did last week. Let’s review!

Week 4 Chargers @ Dolphins

  • Wager 1 - Dolphins Total Points - Above 13.5: $35 [-105] L
  • Wager 2 - Longest TD - Dolphins: $20 [+250] WIN $50.00
  • Wager 3 - Will there be a safety - Yes: $10 [+750] L
  • Wager 4 - Double Result - 1st tie/ 2nd Chargers Win: $10 [+1200] L
  • Wager 5 - Special Teams TD - Yes: $25 [+205] L

TOTAL: $(30.00 LOSS)

Well, the good news is that his intuition about the longest TD being basically a 50/50 bet was accurate. At [+250] that was a ripe bet. But he was most excited about the Double Result—which had a solid chance of coming true!

However, most would agree that our Gambling friend got a “bad beat” on the safety bet. You might recall that the Chargers, in fact, scored a safety—- but declined to challenge the referees on the play. That’s a rough beat, and should’ve gifted the Degenerate Gambler an additional $75 for a big week of profit, but such is the fate of a gambler!

The Chargers return home to face another potential tanking candidate in the Denver Broncos. The Broncos are one of the no-win candidates that still appear to have a fighting spirit left in them. They are not a good team, but they are not the pushovers that the Dolphins and Redskins appear to be.

Let’s take a look at the Degenerate Gambler’s picks, shall we?

Week 5 Broncos @ Chargers

  • Wager 1 - Chargers Win Spread (-6.5): $25.00 [-115] Possible win: $21.74
  • Wager 2 - Chargers Alt Spread (-12.5): $25.00 [+185] Possible win: $46.25
  • Wager 3 - Two or more Quarters Top Score: $17.00 [+525] Possible win: $89.25
  • Wager 4 - Broncos Score Last: $18.00 [EVEN] Possible win: $18.00
  • Wager 5 - First Turnover - Fumble: $15.00 [+140] Possible win: $21.00


Okay, well this is slightly more reasonable than last week. He hasn’t entirely learned his lesson, though. We can glean from these bets that the Gambler is pretty sure that the Chargers will comfortably win the day. In fact, if they clear it with a 2-touchdown grace, he’ll end the day with a penny short of $18.00 profit.

That’s easier said than done, hence the [+185] odds. Interestingly, with a foe that the Gambler expects will stay “in” the game, but never truly challenge for the lead, he feels good about two quarters possibly having the same (highest) point totals. At [+525] it is definitely a long-shot, but he cleverly put up $17.00 there so that if that hits, but nothing else does, he still profits a sweet $6.25 on the day.

Finally, with Melvin Gordon getting consideration for his first start of the year, our friend has placed a FUMBLE bet as being the first turnover of the game. Sure, maybe it has nothing to do with Gordon, but there’s a reason to feel the possibility is larger this week than any other thus far.

What bets do you think are a poor decision? Anything that you would take instead? The Degenerate Gambler, due to physiology rather than psychology, is all ears.

-Jason “Ear mark me for more ear jokes. I lobe them” Michaels