clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

NFL Bets: The Degenerate Gambler Rebounds

New, comments

Betting against the Chargers worked last week, but what about this one?

The last week has been a rough one for the Chargers fan base. After losing to the Steelers and their 3rd-string QB on Sunday (in front of a national audience, mind you), the Chargers traded Super Bowl aspirations to lie in the gutter of the AFC West.

While the Chiefs did win during Thursday night’s game, the temporary loss of Mahomes means that there is a chance for the division to even out a bit. This means that the Chargers still have every reason to play hard and keep their chin up after a tough first quarter to the season.

Teams with unsettled identities, such as the Chargers, offer both risk and possible reward to gamblers. If you feel you’ve identified the Chargers as a team that is a few good bounces away from winning, then you’ll probably enjoy this recent tide of disbelief from Vegas. Our weekly friend, the aptly named Degenerate Gambler, is keen to put his weekly $100 stipend on the line to win or lose another week’s wages.

Let’s see how he did on Sunday.

Week 6 Steelers @ Chargers

  • Wager 1 - Total Points Over 41.5 : $ 20.00 [ -115 ] WIN $ 17.39
  • Wager 2 - First Quarter - Pittsburgh UP : $ 15.00 [ +170 ] WIN $ 25.50
  • Wager 3 - No Team Scores 3 Consecutive : $ 25.00 [ +150 ] L
  • Wager 4 - Chargers 1st Half - Over 12.5 : $ 25.00 [ -115 ] L
  • Wager 5 - Longest TD - Pittsburgh : $ 15.00 [ +150 ] WIN $ 22.50

TOTAL WIN: +$15.39

Well, he learned from recent history not to take the Chargers and their spread. Noticing that opponents seem to be winning these contests, he went with bets that would indicate a Chargers loss without directly requiring one. After all, against a third-string QB, it was conceivable that the Chargers would roll over the Steelers. He won the week, and helped to recoup some of the losses that the NOT CALLED SAFETY FROM WEEK 4 charged him.


Now the Chargers are on the road, where they were so masterful in 2018. They met the Titans in London last year and eeked by with a 1-point win, so it’s reasonable to think that these two teams are still fairly evenly matched. Let’s see what the Gambler picked.

Week 7 Chargers @ Titans

  • Wager 1 - Chargers win : $ 25.00 [ +115 ] Possible win: $28.75
  • Wager 2 - Chargers 1st half points - Above 7.5 : $ 35.00 [ -115 ] Possible win: $30.43
  • Wager 3 - Chargers win both halves : $ 16.00 [ +200 ] Possible win: $32.00
  • Wager 4 - Team with most punts - Titans : $ 24.00 [ +140 ] Possible win: $33.60

TOTAL POSSIBLE WIN: +$124.78

Well, look at that! Our friend appears to be enjoying the critical response to the Chargers’ early-season face-plant. While it is very possible that he is in for another week of significant pain as 34 of his bets are for positive value (unlikely), if the Chargers can change the season’s script even in a small way, he’ll walk away in good shape this week.

Keep in mind, the Titans are benching their franchise QB this week. This could very well be a sloppy game with lots of turnovers (though none of those bets appealed to our Gambler this week), but the raw data indicates that the Chargers should win. If they do win, they have a pretty easy shot of getting more than 7 points in a half (unlike last week, granted).

If you, like our gambling friend, feel that the Chargers could perform like the talented squad they are against another inferior opponent, then there are some great values out there this week.

-Jason “C’mon, Guys. C’mon!” Michaels