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NFL Picks: The Degenerate Gambler knows there’s nothing to lose now

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Being so close is still so very far when you put your lunch money on the line

Well, the regular season has come and gone, and now the playoffs are well underway. Interesting factoid about the word underway: it originated as a nautical term. The original phrase was, in fact, under weigh—meaning under the weigh of the anchor. When the ship was holding the entire weight of the anchor, it was time to set sail without any of the baggage that a 3-ton iron dead-weight could hold back.

At this point in the year, our dear friend (who we really ought to have an intervention for when we can find some free time), the Degenerate Gambler, would be dodging collectors and wearing fake moustaches to avoid paying back his dues. After the Broncos failed to score more than 9 points last week, the Gambler again missed on his ‘over’ bet. It marked the first time all season that the Chargers failed to hit the ‘over’ bet in two consecutive weeks. What’s worse, the Degenerate Gambler had his entire regular season winnings on the line, giving him a total of -$112.76 for the season.

Essentially, if he had actually had the initial $100 deposit in the bank when he started, he lost about thirteen bucks for all of his efforts through the season (oh, and that cool hundred he otherwise would have had). That’s not good news, but it’s not the worst news a Gambler of his type has run into.

Now he is officially under weigh, free of the constraints of the regular season and back to a clean slate for the playoffs! Let’s see what he picks this week, shall we?

Wild Card: Chargers @ Ravens

  • Wager 1 Chargers moneyline $30 [+115]
  • Wager 2 Total Points - Ravens (<22.5) $15 [-115]
  • Wager 3 Highest scoring half (2nd+OT) $20 [-120]
  • Wager 4 Chargers score every quarter $20 [+325]
  • Wager 5 Receiving Yards - A. Gates (>15.5) $15 [-130]

Total possible win: +$140.75

Total possible loss: It’d be tough, but everything is on the line.

Well, we are firmly in prop-bet city, here! There are some delicious bets that just didn’t see the light of day during the regular season, so there’s plenty for other degenerates to choose from. It looks like the Gambler is still high on the Chargers making a positive move today, which makes sense. I definitely get the impression that he is expecting a lower-scoring affair, but it was interesting that he didn’t take the UNDER bet.

He has never been punished when the Chargers got positive value for a straight-up win, so he’s happy to take them moneyline for a little extra return on the bet. The Ravens are not a high scoring team, so his total for that team of less than 23 sounds.. pretty good!

Then we jump firmly into “who knows” territory with the highest scoring half bet. But, always a fan of positive value, the Degenerate Gambler took quite a gamble with his fourth bet— that the Chargers score every quarter. That really wouldn’t be a surprise, even if it is just a kick here and there. But for a return of more than THREE TIMES the initial bet, he loves it.

Then, with the game plan probably drawn up with some Tight End specials, Antonio Gates should do well. You know that he has been hungry for playoff football for several years now, so expect him to leave it all on the field.

If there was another bet that he just didn’t have room for, it was the relatively safe bet of Total TDs for Philip Rivers: >1.5 [-150]. With only $100 to play with, he wasn’t interested in low-return affairs like that, but it’s a pretty solid bet either way.

Here’s hoping that the Degenerate Gambler is pretty locked in on today’s action!

-Jason “Positive value... mmmmm” Michaels