So here we are... week three, and it appears that we have slept in a bit. That’s part of being a degenerate gambler, I suppose. Either way, this is as good a time as any to go over the basics that we’ll continue throughout the season.. or until the bankroll is gone.
This week, and hopefully all weeks, the Degenerate Gambler will bet $100 on the best picks of the week. Most odds will be based on popular internet sites, and the exact odds will be noted that were chosen.
Disclaimer: The Degenerate Gambler does not condone you spending your hard earned money on poorly thought-out bets. Or even well-thought-out ones. But, hey, if you have cash to blow, here’s some food for thought!
- Wager 1 Chargers Spread (-10.5): $50 [-105]
- Wager 2 Chargers 1st Half (23.5) $25 [-110]
- Wager 3 49ers (moneyline) $10 [+340]
- Wager 4 Total Over (46.5) $15 [-110]
Highest possible win: $73.98
Worst possible outcome: Skunked. Chargers win 10 Vs. 9 or less.
Okay, so here’s the thinking here. This selection was made to give the uninitiated an idea about what lines are and how one might be able to ‘hedge’ their bets by betting both sides, at least to a point. As a general rule of thumb, it is stupid to take bets that are mutually exclusive, unless you really enjoy the positive odds on each.
[-105] means that the bet would net almost exactly what you bet. That’s good! [+105] means that it would net a bit higher than your initial bet, but is generally a less-likely outcome.
The bets that we see the Degenerate Gambler take this week means that he is buying into the Chargers’ likelyhood of winning. The 49ers are without their star QB, and there are injury concerns on either side. Taking a heavy spread at 10.5 points means that there will be a tall order for the Chargers, but if they are able to do that.. and score 23.5 points in the first half, DG will profit $45.35. Sweet!
However, the Gabler is also hedging his bet, which isn’t really his style. If today’s match becomes an unexpected defensive slugfest, and, heavens, the 49ers come out on top, his $10 bet on the 49ers winning outright would mean that he’d be out about half of his investments. Nuts.
What the Degenerate Gambler is really counting on is a high-scoring match, where the Chargers run up the score right out of the gate. If the Chargers win by two touchdowns, earn most of those points in the first half, and the 49ers are able to put together one or two scores, he’s hoping to cash in a $73.98 profit. That is the ceiling for these bets, as he can’t take home all four.
It is worth noting that when the Chargers really begin to Charge, they like to score a lot of points (going back to 2017 and that Bills game. Remember that bloodbath?). The Gabler is pretty confident about these bets, but doesn’t want to go home skunked, so perhaps a 49ers moneyline bet with such a delicious positive take is a smart hedge after all.
We’ll let you know how he does soon enough!
-Jason “Odds and Ends” Michaels