Oh, Vegas, where dost thou come up with these figures? Well, as usual, they’re not completely out of the blue. Online sportsbook BetOnline.AG has just opened up the lines on the ‘First Coach to be Fired’ bet.
Looking at the list, there are few obvious positions on the list. You’ve got those that are firmly entrenched— Bill Belichick is second to the bottom at 100/1, and then you have Sean McDermott leading the pack at 4/1 and Hue Jackson hot on his heels at 5/1.
However, this list also provides a very interesting look for how Vegas perceives each coach’s ability to sit on their throne throughout the entire season. What used to be a rarity—a coach being separated from a team before the end of the regular season—has now become more common. In fact, it’s often used as a strengthening move by team ownership to galvanize a fanbase.
The ultimate wrinkle to this particular bet, however, is that you’re not trying to pick which coaches will survive the year. You’re trying to figure out which team will be more fed up with their leader before any of the others. This is why previously immortal figures like Mike Tomlin are sweating it out at 16/1. The Steelers were armed with Superbowl-Or-Bust attitudes since falling to the Jaguars last January, and now they sit winless and answering questions about roster spots and twitter tantrums. Tomlin might win 8 games more than Hue Jackson this year and STILL get the axe first, because ownership might have a harder time swallowing that mediocre pill than the Browns do settling for more of the same crud.
Like I said, it’s a unique bet.
What this tells us about the Chargers’ own Anthony Lynn is that his win this last week buys him some precious patience equity! The fans and the ownership stood by Lynn through a very rocky 0-4 start last year, and they were moderately rewarded for their patience.
There are a lot of pundits who expect the Chargers to lose to the Rams this week, but the Chargers are not quite ready to sell the farm yet.
If you are looking for advice, I can solidly steer you away from picking Andy Reid at 100/1 or Doug Pederson at 66/1. If you’re into rolling the dice for high returns, you could do worse than Sean Payton at 100/1 or Pat Shurmur at 50/1. Finally, if it were a call that he could make himself, it wouldn’t be bad to consider Jon Gruden at 25/1, but I’m afraid that someone else would have to make a rash, though somewhat explicable move for that to happen.
-Jason “Funny that there’s no bet for everyone keeping their jobs” Michaels