Today is hot take day on the internet so what better time is it than to talk about the players being overrated in the draft. Whether it’s by the draft community or “big draft” analysts we see on TV.
Josh Allen is too easy of a target here & I think Baker Mayfield gets over drafted by an entire round, but I’ll go with Josh Rosen. He is a completely different player when the play isn’t perfect. When he has to reset. When he have to move around consistently in the pocket. I worry about him if he goes to a place with a bad line because he won’t be able to avoid sacks like the other top quarterbacks. That and his decision making during the most important parts of the game suffer greatly.
Josh Rosen, 10 plays in 3 games: Decision making, field vision and under pressure pic.twitter.com/DcxFkZkn3I— KP (@KP_Show) April 4, 2018
Nick Chubb is a guy who is being propped up for past performance. Don’t get me wrong, he is a good back. Pre-injury he was great. What I don’t think is being talked about enough with Chubb is how he stops his feet in the backfield when it comes time to change directions. That’s going to hurt him at the next level if he has to make more than 1 cut. Then in the passing game, he struggles big time as a blocker. His effort is iffy. The creativity isn’t there in the open field or in the backfield, either. He likes to bounce it when there isn’t anything there and that’s not a good habit to have. Twitter loves him and I see some traits that’ll hold him back.
Wide Receiver/Tight Ends
There is talk about D.J. Moore being the 1st wide receiver taken. If he is the best receiver in this draft then that is a big problem. People will show you his highlights and it’s usually screens or plays where he gets a free run downfield. When he’s asked to do “receiver things” that you’ll see on a down to down basis, I have a hard time seeing Moore excel at. He struggles mightily with contact and he struggles to shake free. He tracks the ball well and can make plays on the ball but his catching/hands are inconsistent. The creativity isn’t there as a route runner and you don’t get to see his athleticism until the ball is in his hands. No thanks. Not where he’s being talked about getting drafted.
I’m sorry that I have to take it here. This year Quenton Nelson is being talked about this god-sent talent. He can be good, great, even, without being the best player in the draft. If you think Nelson is the best player in the draft and will have the biggest impact as a rookie I have big questions about how you view the game. I’ve seen him struggle in space. Have also seen him struggle with more athletic players. That’s not going to improve in pass protection next year. It’s okay to admit he’s not perfect. Nelson is going to go high, and he should. This thought that he’s the best player in the draft kills me, though. Believe it or not, Nelson is scheme dependent.
Vita Vea might be the strongest player in the draft. When you look at his plays and what he does, and how it translates, you’re left with so many questions. For a guy who is being talked about as a top 15 lock, no thanks. Vea will be at the line not making any impact for 10-15 plays in a row, then have a wow play that sucks you in. It can’t be like that. There needs to be consistency. His range as a player might be the biggest question. On plays where he beats his man, if the runner isn’t right on him, he’s not making the play. Then you get into all of his balance issues, lack of recognition, pass-rush moves, and pad level and no thank you.
If you want an edge rusher, Marcus Davenport plays higher than Snoop Dogg. That won’t be fixed right away. I’m not taking a guy that struggles to redirect and needs to build up speed. Not top 20.
I actually like Leighton Vander Esch out of Boise State. This is more about him being taken in the late teens to the 1st round. He doesn’t belong there. His speed is obvious. He gets sideline to sideline with ease. Your last memory of him is dominating Oregon, so that certainly helps. As a linebacker you’re taught “first step forward” and that’s not something Vander Esch does. There are multiple plays a game where he is caught out of position because of it. With him not meeting offensive line at the line of scrimmage he’s already giving up yards. Then him not being able to shed blocks once the lineman are engaged is how big plays happen. He’s not as consistent a tackler, form wise, as the “top 3” linebackers, either. Vander Esch will leave his feet and miss. In zone coverage he tends to get caught in no mans land. He can play. He’s a guy that belongs closer to 47 than 17.
Iowa’s Josh Jackson can jump out of the gym and has just enough build up speed to where he won’t get beaten deep. His issue is technique. At the line of scrimmage, guys can make him look silly. At the top of the route, it’s not much different. He gets turned around repeatedly. When you watch him it feels like he’s guessing more than reacting. The burst is lacking from a guy that will get beat. He tested well on his shuttles, but there isn’t this fluidity when it comes to changing directions. Factor in that he just launches himself at runners ankles when it’s time to tackle and this one will not end well. I’d take Jackson somewhere in the 3rd. He is likely to go top 20.
Jessie Bates is a popular name for the Chargers in the second round. I know draft twitter loves him. His athleticism is obvious. Real easy mover that can drop down in the slot and play some man. Bates has big issues as a tackler. Like, bigger than Malik Hooker last year. As a deep safety, you’ll see him consistently let receivers get behind him. As the last line of defense, those are two things you just can’t have. He diagnoses plays well but his eyes will get stuck in the backfield. In the second round, I’m out on Bates.
Who are some of the players you think are being overrated in the draft?