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NFL Picks: The Degenerate Gambler doesn’t like the spread

Stay far, far away... even though they’re gonna cover

As we head into the final weeks of the season, the Chargers are looking good. The Degenerate Gambler had been running on a 3-week win streak until last week. His instincts were right in most regards, but things just didn’t fall his way. He said it would be a three-point game, determined on the last play. Correct! He said Roethlisberger would throw for a lot, and that was true, too. But he thought it would be a more defensive game, and it was not.

Each week the Degenerate Gambler, a ne’r-do-well NFL betting compulsive gambler, puts $100 on the line on various bets that the Chargers faithful might have some opinions about. Let’s take a look at what went wrong last week, shall we?

Week 13: Chargers @ Steelers

  • Wager 1 Total Points (Under 52.5) $45 [-110] L $0
  • Wager 2 Total receiving yards - A. Brown (<84.5) $10 [-115] L $0
  • Wager 3 Total receiving yards - A. Ekeler (>28.5) $15 [-110] L $0
  • Wager 4 Total passing yards - Big Ben (>301.5) $15 [-115] L $0
  • Wager 5 No team scores 3 consecutive times $15 [+200]L $0

Week total: $ -100.00

Season total: $ -1.46

Well. That could have gone better.

In 5 fell swoops, the season’s profits were effectively wiped out completely. Not a good day at the office. Luckily for you and I, the Degenerate Gambler has built enough credit over the weeks prior that he was easily able to scrape up $100 to lay on the line today.

Week 14 Bengals @ Chargers

  • Wager 1 Total points (Over 48.5) $45 [-110]
  • Wager 2 Total receiving yards- M. Williams (>39.5) $15 [-115]
  • Wager 3 Interceptions thrown - J. Driskel (>.5) $20 [-225]
  • Wager 4 Total Field Goals Bengals (>1.5) - Bengals $20 [+125]

Total possible win: $87.84

Total possible loss: Everything (again!)

Well, let’s take a look. The Degenerate Gambler doesn’t feel that the Chargers will have any problem clearing the +16.5 spread, but he’s not touching that with a 10-foot pole. There is no incentive for teams to go up by 3 touchdowns in the NFL, so if they are 14 points above the Bengals in the 4th, they’d better give Geno Smith some reps. Garbage time will ruin that spread, but don’t take the Bengals either. They are really decimated right now.

However, he’s giving Ohio the benefit of the doubt by taking the total Over. The Chargers have been able to put a lot of points on the board lately, and this should really be a 30 point endeavor at minimum. With lots of points on the board, receiving yards should be a-plenty. Again, be wary of them taking out Rivers, so receivers are a nice bet to aim for.

Those looking at Wager 4 might be wondering why there is a +125 attached to what should be a shoe-in. Well, their kicker, Randy Bullock, has only made 2 FGs on the day once this season. He was 1-1 last week and 0-2 in all the three weeks prior to that. They haven’t attempted many kicks, but when they do.. it’s not been good. That said, the Degenerate Gambler is a proven sucker for positive bets. The Bengals are going to be eager to get points on the board against the LA defense, so it sounds reasonable that they’ll have to attempt 3 or so kicks. Just make two of those, Randy.

-Jason “Don’t let the tiger catch you by the tail” Michaels