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NFL Picks: The Degenerate Gambler’s last gamble...?

Portrait of the Gambler as a broken man...

Well folks, it’s finally here: The last regular season game of the year. The Degenerate Gambler has lived up to his namesake and made both good bets and terrible ones. While not trying to display some sort of gambling league parity, it seemed quite surprising and odd that his losses seemed to be evened out with wins. What amounted was a 16-week rollercoaster of emotions and poor decisions that currently has our anti-hero back where he started at (minus $12.76).

But how did last week fare for him?

Week 16 Ravens @ Chargers

  • Wager 1 Chargers spread (-4) $40 [-110] L
  • Wager 2 Total points (>42.5) $40 [-110] L
  • Wager 3 Chargers first half (>11.5) $10 [-120] L
  • Wager 4 Receiving - M. Williams (>46.5) $10 [-115] L

TOTAL: $ -100.00

I don’t know why he would bother with a first half bet—-he mentioned just last week that those never work out, but he did it again. What was absolutely astounding is that the Chargers only mustered 3 points by the half. If they had been even half-awake on offense, this could have been a split week for the Gambler, but it was not to be.

Well, you don’t win anything if you don’t risk it, so he’s at it again!

Week 17 Chargers @ Broncos

  • Wager 1 - Total points (>42) $100 [-110]

Total possible win: $90.91

Total possible loss: Everything, meaning a net loss for the regular season.

Well, that’s something. Yes, the Broncos beat the Chargers earlier this season, but almost every major media outlet is taking the Chargers for the win. That said, opinions don’t mean anything when it comes to the field of play.

Last time they met, it was a 22-23 affair, with the Broncos stealing an improbable win. Despite what many think, the Chargers won’t be as motivated to win this week as many would hope— there is a chance they actually lose, without it hurting their seeding. Expect a fairly vanilla playbook and not a lot of risky plays. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all for Geno Smith to see some action this week.

While it’s unlikely that Vance Joseph keeps his job, many of his coordinators and assistants are also teetering on the edge
Jason Michaels

On the other side of the coin, most Broncos are playing for their jobs—especially the coaching staff. The spread for this game is an unpleasant -6.5 for the Chargers. It’s a decent proposal to take the Broncos at +6.5, but they are one of the most flukey teams in the league. Boil all of that information down and you are best situated with an Over/Under bet. The details seem to hint at an under, but history hints at an over.

The Degenerate Gambler knows that the Chargers haven’t had two consecutive games under 42 points yet this year, so he’s going over. You’ve got to expect that the ‘Money Badger’ is a lock for 70 yards or less, too, up in the thin air. It will be interesting to see what prop bets pop up in the next few days (if it is 3 total field goals or less, go hard on the over!).

-Jason “Easy come, easy go” Michaels