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AFC Playoff Scenarios: Where will the Chargers be seeded?

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NFL: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

The 11-4 Los Angeles Chargers currently sit in second place in the AFC West and hold the 5 seed in the AFC. Depending on the results of week 17’s games, the Chargers will either remain in that exact position or will vault all the way to first place in the AFC West and hold the 1 seed in the AFC. Those are the only two possibilities.

If the Chargers lose to the Denver Broncos, their fate is sealed and they will be the 5 seed. If they win or tie, however, the result of the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders will determine their place. With a win and a Chiefs loss or tie, the Chargers win the division and take the 1 seed. With a tie and a Chiefs loss, the Chargers win the division and take the 1 seed. If the Chiefs win, the Chargers finish in the second and get the 5 seed no matter the outcome of their own game.

Should Los Angeles end up with the 5 seed, there are quite a few possibilities for where they could play during Wild Card weekend. The New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Tennessee Titans are all in play for the 4 seed.

In order by Weighted DVOA, those teams could get the 4 seed in these ways:

Baltimore Ravens (#4): If the Ravens win and both the Patriots and Texans win OR if the Ravens and Steelers lose OR if the Ravens and Steelers tie.

Indianapolis Colts (#5): If the Colts win, the Ravens win, and the Texans lose.

New England Patriots (#8): If the Pats lose and any two of the Ravens, Titans, and Texans win.

Pittsburgh Steelers (#10): If the Steelers win and the Ravens lose OR if the Steelers win and Ravens tie.

Tennessee Titans (#16): If the Titans win, the Ravens win, and the Texans lose.

The only scenario where the Chargers are likely to be favored on the road is at Tennessee, so if the Raiders can’t stun the Chiefs this weekend, we should probably all be rooting for the Titans, Ravens, and Jaguars.