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NFL Picks: The Degenerate Gambler wakes from his stupor feeling good

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After sweeping all his picks last week, the Gambler is oddly less sure of himself this week

What a week! Wow!

Like, perhaps, a few of the Chargers’ faithful, the Degenerate Gambler really doesn’t remember a lot of the past week. As far as he can tell, he woke up somewhere in Escondido on Thursday, got in a fight when he wasn’t “allowed” to place any wagers on the Thursday night game, and promptly got escorted to a back lot that made a comfy bed until this morning. There not being any more night games might mean that this is a scene that will repeat itself more than once before the end of the season, but the Degenerate Gambler is still feeling good about life.

Not only will there be MORE sweet Chargers action to bet on after the regular season, but he won more than 100% of his initial deposit last week. Let’s see how he did!

Week 15 Chargers @ Chiefs

  • Wager 1 Chargers spread (+3.5) $35 [-110] W +$31.82
  • Wager 2 Chargers moneyline $35 [+165] W +$57.75
  • Wager 3 Total (>53) $30 [-115] W +$26.09

TOTAL Win: +$115.66

Season Total: +$112.26

Ah, yes—that’s right, he lost every bet versus the Bengals, and his good season was tarnished in one sore week. Well, sometimes yin and yang even out more quickly than we expect! One bad week, one excellent week. This means that this week’s deposit is effectively a free roll for the Degenerate Gambler. You would think that he’s destined to gamble on big returns with that, right? Let’s see.

Week 16 Ravens @ Chargers

  • Wager 1 Chargers spread (-4) $40 [-110]
  • Wager 2 Total points (>42.5) $40 [-110]
  • Wager 3 Chargers first half (>11.5) $10 [-120]
  • Wager 4 Total receiving yards - M. Williams (>46.5) $10 [-115]

Total potential win: +$89.76

Total potential loss: Everything

Well, that’s... interesting. Nothing juicy at all, here. If we were to characterize how he’s looking at this game, it appears to be “just another day at the office” for the Chargers. This means that he’s not sure enough they’re going to crush them that he’s delving into alt-line territory (higher spreads for greater profit). There’s also a nice bet on Melvin Gordon III getting 30 or more receiving yards, but with Williams balling out last week and the team being careful with Gordon, that’s a solid bet that he’s willing to let go.

The closest that we can come to solid conclusions is that he expects the Chargers to come out of the gates shooting. Two touchdowns in the first half should not be hard for the Chargers to achieve, but the total points of just 42.5 is probably the surest thing to a “lock” this week. That’s the lowest total for a Chargers game since Buffalo (week 2 was at 41.5).

The Chargers have only played two games this year with total points that wouldn’t hit 42.5 between the teams, and both had OVER/UNDER lines of much higher.

It seems that, again, the Degenerate Gambler is consigned to hitching his wagon to the Chargers, which has been a good choice this season. If the Chargers win, he stands to likely at least break even this week. Of course, if they get upset, well.. he’ll be upset as well.

-Jason “Never wins the first half bets” Michaels