clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

NFL Picks: Week 11 Gambling Review/Preview

New, comments

Find out what you might actually consider taking next week, and see whether the Degenerate Gambler won or lost last Sunday

Another week is just about in the books, but just how did the bookies do? Let’s check in with our weekly anti-hero and see whether or not he had the right inclination when the Chargers met the Broncos.

To the uninitiated, the Degenerate Gambler is a ne’r-do-well habitual gambler that just can’t keep his fingers from clicking on bets each week. While he might or might not have a thing to say about other matchups, each week he puts $100 on the line to try and win big (or medium, or small). Let’s see what he had a good feeling about in Week 11, shall we?

Week 11 Chargers @ Broncos

  • Wager 1 - No Team Scores 3 Consecutive Times: $20 [+175] W $35.00
  • Wager 2 - Total Points (Under 46.5): $20 [-110] W $18.18
  • Wager 3 - Broncos Total Field Goals (>1.5): $20 [-110] L $(20.00)
  • Wager 4 - Chargers Total (Under 27.5) $20 [-115] W $17.39
  • Wager 5 - Total Points First Half (Under 27.5) $20 [-135] W $14.81

Week 11 TOTAL: +$65.39

Year to date TOTAL: +$76.25

Another great week for the Degenerate Gambler, but a rather unsavory one for the LA Chargers. It seems that the Gambler was “right on the money” with his thoughts that this would be anything but a runaway for the Chargers. His biggest regret is not going with the juicy moneyline bet for the Broncos, which was above +255 at times. Still, although not a defensive slugfest, the numbers trended low.

To be honest, it was very surprising to see that it wasn’t a clean sweep for the Gambler—but the Chargers just couldn’t hold the Broncos in the red zone. The Gambler also won his favorite bet— no 3 consecutive scores, and that always improves his mood!

Looking Ahead

The Chargers welcome the lowly Cardinals to LA. These lopsided matches are always a matter of gross unknowns. This should also bring back unhappy memories of an earlier matchup against the San Francisco 49ers this year. The Chargers opened as a 14-point monster, and most bookings ended the line at +13 for the Bolts. If you recall, Los Angeles escaped by the skin of their teeth against a wet-behind-the-ears QB and a team that was gunning for a high draft pick.

If you are looking for early lines on this game, the Degenerate Gambler strongly recommends that you put your cash in now— and go with the Cardinals vs. the spread. Other than their game against Denver, they have been within 12 points in each game. They aren’t a good team, but they are spunky and occasionally lucky. The Chargers, meanwhile, have failed to punish many unworthy teams this year, excepting the Raiders and the Browns. A better comparison would be their games against the 49ers or the Bills, neither of which would cover the current spread.

The Over/Under is set at 45 right now, which is probably a number that holds, while the spread might decrease to 11 by game day. If you are getting your bets in early, go hard on the OVER and feel pretty good about your bet. Since Sam Bradford last threw a pass, the Cardinals have scored multiple times each game. The Chargers like to keep opponents in the game, so it should be a decent-to-high scoring game, and the Chargers will probably end up about 7 or 8 points above the Cards.

The Degenerate Gambler will strike again later this week when a few more of the prop bets are solidified.

-Jason “Stay Lucky My Friends” Michaels