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The Degenerate Gambler Picks for Week 10

Our Gambler is at the end of his rope..

When we last checked in with our intrepid anti-hero, he had jumped the pond and placed some wagers on the Chargers in London. As seems to be a theme with our ne’r-do-well Gambler, he chose poorly despite the Chargers picking up another win.

To recap, he more than doubled his bets in week 6 against the Browns and he did that by betting the Chargers to win straight-up against Cleveland. The reason? They were slight underdogs, so he enjoyed a +$105.00 return on his investment. That sounds insane right now, but the Browns were showing signs of being very competitive just three weeks ago.

However, after he touched down in Great Brittan, he tried to play it safe (or as safe as a degenerate gambler can) and bet both sides of the field to hedge his bets. Then, in the same breath, he took [+250] and [+280] bets— long shots that don’t pan out very often. Sure, they were for small amounts, but it just hasn’t been a winning strategy for the Gambler. Stick to traditional bets, son. In the end, he lost -$41.21 on the trip, which certainly did not help cover the airfare home.

The Seahawks are another team that many were quite ‘down’ on a few weeks ago, but they’ve scrapped themselves together rather impressively and are favored at home this week. That said, they are favored by a mere 1.5 points, meaning that Vegas feels that the Chargers are the better team, but home field advantage will grant Seattle the likely win. Sensing the sweet nectar of positive value, the Degenerate Gambler is enjoying the slight disadvantage of the visiting team.

Week 9 Chargers @ Seahawks

  1. Wager 1 - Chargers Moneyline $50.00 [+105]
  2. Wager 2 - Total Points (Under 48) $25.00 [-110]
  3. Wager 3 - Chargers Spread (+1.5) $25.00 [-110]

Total possible win: +$97.95 profit

Worst possible loss: All bets (-$100)

So let’s look at his strategy here. It looks like he is counting on the Chargers to win (how’s that for some in-depth analysis?), but after last week’s 1-point affair, he’s happy to take the +1.5pt spread as a slight safety net.

The Total Points under 48 bet is a bit of a surprise, as we’ve found the Degenerate Gambler to be both greedy and excited by this new offense-resurgent NFL. He hasn’t taken an UNDER bet this season (and hasn’t enjoyed winning those bets, so perhaps he’s finally adjusting)! His thinking? The Chargers AND the Seahawks are both capable of scoring and scoring well, but, with the lone exception of the Rams, the Seahawks have limited opponents to 17 points or less since week 3. They aren’t the Legion of Boom any more, but they have a potent defense.

Minus a strange day where they got up on the wrong side of the bed against the 49ers, the Chargers have stymied offenses to 20 points or less in all games against teams other than the top 3 (that’s right, we just explained away the Chiefs and the Rams!) in the league.

If one of these two teams takes the reins on this game, this season implies that they’re doing this by choking the other team’s offense. If it’s a shootout, it’s a shootout— and the Gambler loses if the wrong gunman is left standing at the end of the day. Guess that’s why it’s called a gamble!

EDIT: The lines have been changing already! The Chargers are getting a bit more credit, and the line has moved from +1.5 to +1.0 today alone.

-Jason “Bet Your Bottom Dollar!” Michaels