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NFL Picks: The Degenerate Gambler Goes Low

Each week our anti-hero blows $100 on the game. What picks did he feel were the best today?

This has been a week of many changing lines for the Chargers Vs. Broncos matchup. One of the biggest mysteries was whether or not the Chargers’ standout star Joey Bosa would actually see the field, and recent updates have confirmed that he’ll suit up. That said, it would be premature to guarantee that Bosa makes in impact on the game (though, if there was a prop bet on him, the Degenerate Gambler would surely take a look!).

Each week, the Degenerate Gambler lives up to his name is bets $100 on various bets for that week’s Chargers matchup. He has no allegiance, except to the power of the greenback dollar. His greed tends to be his ultimate downfall, but, as gamblers do, he sometimes gets lucky in spite of himself. To date, he’s made a sweet profit of just north of $10 for an entire season’s worth of stress.

Week 11 Broncos @ Chargers

  • Wager 1 - No Team Scores 3 Consecutive Times $20 [+175]
  • Wager 2 - Total Points (Under 46.5) $20 [-110]
  • Wager 3 - Broncos Total Field Goals (>1.5) $20 [-110]
  • Wager 4 - Chargers Total (Under 27.5) $20 [-115]
  • Wager 5 - Total Points First Half (Under 27.5) $20 [-135]

Total possible win: +$103.57

Total possible loss: Everything

Well, true to his early word this week, the Degenerate Gambler is sticking to his guns that this will be a defensive matchup. Vegas seems to agree, as 46.5 is one of the lowest O/U amounts of the week. The spread has changed from 7.5 to just 7, but that’s just not good enough for the Gambler to consider the Chargers. They have not been a team that thrives on decimating its opponents by multiple scores, it appears that they just aim to be a point or two ahead by the end of the game.

The Degenerate Gambler happily took his favorite bet again this week, which is ‘No Team Scores 3 Consecutive Times’ for a positive bounty of +175. Yes, it’s a risk, but the Gambler considers it a nice return on what is essentially a 50/50 shot. He is giving the Broncos a lot of credit, and thinks that this will be a competitive game throughout. The majority of his bets this week are for negative value, which means he’s playing it fairly safe.

If the Chargers run away with this game, which many predict, he’s in trouble. He might be able to still grab Wager 3 and possibly Wager 1, but that would be it. If the Broncos can keep it competitive, and if Bosa does keep them in check as well, the Gambler is looking very good on his litany of under bets.

The Gambler had originally really had his eyes on the Total Sacks prop, but Vegas set that line at 4.5. We’ve got all the makings of a 4 sack game, but he’s not sure beyond that.

Going through his notes, the Gambler still isn’t sure what to make of this Broncos team.

P.S. - If the Gambler had any leftover pocket change, he would go HARD on the moneyline for the Bengals this week. They are currently sporting a +215 return against a Ravens team that was trying to decide between a broken Joe Flacco, RGIII, or their rookie of the future. In the AFC North, it’s always a gamble (for 3 of 4 teams), so it’s a very nice return for a coin flip.

-Jason “He might need therapy by Monday” Michaels