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The Degenerate Gambler’s Picks for Week 10

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Find out what bets you should probably avoid today!

When we last found our intrepid anti-hero, he was slinging together the final shambles of his credit to put another $100 in jeopardy against the Seahawks. In a startling turn-of-fortune, the Degenerate Gambler won every bet and nearly doubled his risk that week!

Week 9 earnings: +$97.95

The Gambler earned this by going hardest on the Chargers for a moneyline bet (they were slight underdogs, if you remember). Knowing that the NFL doesn’t care about spreads one way or another, he hedged with a spread bet that gave the Chargers a +1.5 lifeline. Finally, sensing a more defensive match, he took a rare Under bet for the total points scored. A perfect week!

It is very, very unlikely that this week brings similar fortune, but he is not ruling out the possibility. Air quality issues aside, the Chargers are expected to shine as they visit the reigning 1st-overall-pick favorite for the season. Don’t expect the Raiders to purposely tank— they want a win here, and they can spare another win or two without killing their draft plans next year. Still, the Chargers are a unanimous #5 overall ranked team this year, and they’re against the unanimous #32 pick. Vegas has burdened the Chargers with clearing 10 extra points to make this game ‘fair.’

On to the bets!

  • Wager 1 - Chargers Spread (-10) $25 [-115]
  • Wager 2 - Chargers 1st Half (>15.5) $30 [-115]
  • Wager 3 - Anytime TD - Antonio Gates $8 [+325]
  • Wager 4 - Neither team scores 3 consecutive times $15 [+200]
  • Wager 5 - Total Field Goals (>3.5) $22 [+105]

Total possible win: +$126.93

Total possible loss: Everything

OK so let’s see here. It looks like the Gambler expects the Chargers to pull out the win again (as does most everyone, but if you remember how things went against San Francisco earlier this year, nothing is given freely!).

He sees a lot of scoring, at least for the Chargers. He trusted the first half clearing 16 points for the Chargers, which is a risky bet to put 13 of the money on. That said, the Chargers have cleared this hurdle against better defenses several times this year. Surprisingly, the Gambler is giving the Raiders a little bit of credit in the scoring column by taking a no-3-scores bet. Yes, he did that for the positive value of +200, but it means that he’s expecting the Raiders to jump into the red zone every once in a while and kick a FG.

Perhaps the most surprising, though lowest wagered, bet of the week is +325 for Antonio Gates to score a TD. From what we can gather, Rivers still likes to sling it to Gates, and if the old warrior can get the job done, it’ll probably be against one of the most gashed defenses in the league. He might end up winning that one and wishing that he gave Gates more credit.

The best case scenario for the Gambler this week is that the Chargers dominate, but the Raiders try to keep up speed all game long. The worst scenario is a defensive struggle and the Chargers either don’t cover the spread or the Raiders actually win. With bets like Wager 4 and Wager 5, we suspect that the Degenerate Gambler will be chewing his nails all game long. Oh right, and if the Chargers are up by 12 in the 4th, he better know that that spread is as good as gone.

-Jason “A good day for a raiding” Michaels