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The Degenerate Gambler Picks Gambling Lines for Week 5

What terrible choices will the Gambler make this week?

Well, it’s another week of recuperation and another week of more bad decisions to regret. The Degenerate Gambler is back in action and, after calling a few of the kind loan sharks of LA, he’s got another $100 to blow!

If you recall, the Gambler was really excited about last week’s matchup against the 49ers. The line was a ludicrous -10.5 for the Chargers, indicating what should’ve been a runaway game. At the end of the day, the Degenerate Gambler only one a single bet— the over of 46.5. His $100 investment netted him a return of -$71.36. Ouch!

This week, he claims to have learned his lesson. Spreads of more than 3 points are more trouble than they are worth! He’s going for the over again. However, as gamblers are likely to do, he started to get greedy again. The over/under line for today’s matchup is a respectable 52 points. He seemed pretty confident that the Chargers and the Raiders would hit that, especially with Joey Bosa still nursing a lingering injury. Instead of banking on his inclination, he went off the deep end and trod into ALT-LINE territory. After all, if they are going to score a lot today, why bother with a silly -110 bet?

Week 5 Raiders @ Chargers

  1. Wager 1: Total Score Over Alt Line (54.5) $15 [+125]
  2. Wager 2: Total Over Alt Line (57.5) $10 [+170]
  3. Wager 3: Melvin Gordon - Receiving (>49.5) $15 [-110]
  4. Wager 4: Derek Carr - Passing (>285.0) $25 [-115]
  5. Wager 5: Touchdowns - Chargers (>3.5) $35 [+105]

Highest Potential Profit: $107.88 (5 wins)

Lowest Potential Profit: $-100.00 (5 losses)

So let’s take a look here. It looks like the Degenerate Gambler is so confident that this will be a high scoring affair that he wants some extra cheddar on his ‘over’ bets. If the score eclipses 57.5 points, he should be very, very happy. In fact, unlike last week, there is a distinct possibility that he could win every bet! To that end, there’s also a very real possibility that he loses every bet as well. The max he could walk away with is $107.88 profit, which would officially put him in the positive for the season as a whole. An tantalizing gamble!

So let’s look at the most likely scenario: The Chargers win, but perhaps the Raiders don’t do their part to help these alt lines. If Derek Carr struggles, well the Overs and the passing bets are pretty much dead, as we can’t really expect the Chargers to put up 50 points themselves. Melvin Gordon has been receiving a lot this season. In weeks 1 and 4, he had over 50 yards. However, he was more of a standard RB for weeks 2 and 3. Still, if this is an offensive-heavy game, Gordon should have a good chance at getting his 49.5 yards. The Chargers, in most minds, are a lock for 3 touchdowns. However, you’ll notice that the Gambler’s 5th bet is at positive odds, and that’s because it’s 4 TDs or bust on his largest bet of the day.

The Degenerate Gambler has a good chance, by most estimates, of winning bets 3, 4, and 5. If the Raiders don’t do their part, then he’ll walk away with a $.39 profit for the day. Yay? Of course, if the Raiders crush it today, he’ll only lose about half of his initial investment (-$53.26 loss for the day if the Chargers are simply run over by a Carr).

We shall know soon enough how he fares!

-Jason “I Waited a Long Time for that Carr Joke” Michaels