To make this clear, this post is based on the ADP of each player and how they will perform in comparison to other players around them. This is NOT saying that these players are not worth a draft pick, this is only saying that at that slot, you can do better. The draft grade is where I would draft these guys, but given the ADP, you can wait or jump the gun to make sure you can grab them.
Keenan Allen: His current ADP is 68.32 which slaps him in the 7th round. He is currently being drafted as the 24th overall receiver, so there’s a very good chance someone may have him stashed as their flex unless you get to him first. I took him in the 5th round, pick number 49, behind Mike Evans (pick 9), Devonta Freeman (12), Brandin Cooks (29), and Isaiah Crowell (32). After Keenan Allen, I drafted Allen Robinson for injury insurance, giving me 4 high profile receivers.
Keenan Allen looks to have a good season, with deep threats Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin demanding double coverage with the safety, leaving Keenan to break some ankles. If he can stay healthy, he can and will easily be a top 10 receiver. Even if he only plays a few games, chances are you will get a W in those games.
Draft Grade: Round 5 (but will outplay)
Antonio Gates: Yes, he’s old. And yes, he is probably going to receive less snaps than incoming superstar Hunter Henry, but if you think that the Chargers won’t have him out there in the red zone, you are dead wrong. Philip Rivers has thrown more touchdowns to Antonio Gates than any quarterback has thrown to their TE in NFL history. I expect the first touchdown of the season to be aimed at Gates, which would bump him over Tony Gonzalez into 1st place for most TDs by a TE in NFL history. He is currently being drafted as the 15th overall TE (in round 15) with an ADP of 142 (15th rd).
Draft Grade: Round 13
Younghoe Koo: The Chargers have a good offense. They are going to score a lot of points, and Younghoe Koo will have a hand in every single scoring drive. If you think Koo is on anyone’s radar, you are wrong. He’s being drafted as the 38th K in fantasy. I’d expect him (if he’s any good) to be in the top 10 for kickers this season. Pick him with your final pick, and you’ll look like a genius.
Draft Grade: Round 16, but will move up next season
Tyrell Williams: Tyrell Williams is going to have a tough time getting enough attention this season with Travis Benjamin looking real fast (back in Rivers’ good graces), and Keenan Allen looking like his old self, but he is still a very good receiver, and will most likely finish in the top 30 for WRs. IF all receivers stay healthy, I think Tyrell Williams will have a good season, with around 7-800 yards and 5 TDs, which would put him in the 110 point range, around 49th overall for WRs last season. That being said, if a receiver gets injured this season, that will vault Tyrell Williams into starting reps. He was the 13th best receiver from a fantasy standpoint last season, and an ADP in the 15th round is definitely worth the pick as a sleeper for an established WR in this league.
Draft Grade: 13th round
Melvin Gordon: I am NOT saying that Melvin Gordon is not going to be good this season. He’s going to be good and has a very good chance to be a top 10 running back in the league. The reason for him being in this category is the reemergence of Branden Oliver, the insistence of Anthony Lynn that this will be a backfield by committee, and with Austin Ekeler poaching snaps as the change of pace guy for the Chargers. With an ADP of 10.5, putting him as the 4th overall RB behind David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, and LeSean McCoy. Personally, I don’t see him rushing for more than 8 TDs this season, but if you can snag Melvin Gordon some time in the 2nd round, go for it.
Draft Grade: Round 2
Hunter Henry: He led all tight ends in TDs last season, establishing himself as a legitimately great target for Rivers. With the Chargers, it is very hard to choose a TE, as it seemed like only one of them performed well at a time last season, and Ken Whisenhunt showed an inability to utilize both in every game. With Antonio Gates chasing the record for most TDs by a TE, and Hunter Henry receiving the majority of snaps between the 20s, I get the feeling that Gates will rack up the TD's, but with fewer yards than Henry. I think Hunter Henry will have a solid season, with 550 yards and 4 TDs, for about 79 points. Yes, his ADP puts him at 14th, and he would place about 17th last season with those statistics, but knowing Charger fans, his ADP will probably be top 10 for us, when it shouldn’t be.
Draft Grade: Round 14