Likelihood the Chargers Take Each Quarterback

In the upcoming draft, there are four quarterbacks that many consider “first round” quality. I think it’s going to be crazy this draft, and either 1 will be drafted (late), or 4 will be drafted really early.

Mitch Trubisky - 20-1 odds - Likely the first quarterback off the board in April, Trubisky isn't all that exciting. He moves well and has the ability to get out of the pocket, but i really see him as nothing more than a solid game manager at the next level. His combine numbers are very close to Alex Smith’s, but isn’t as established or near as prolific a passer or rusher as Smith was coming out of college. despite that, my pro comparison for him is Alex Smith, mainly due to similar combine statistics and their labels as “game managers.” I think he will still be available when the Chargers pick at 7, but I am under the impression that they are in the “win now” mode and will use their first round pick on a playmaker for the defense. that being said, if the Chargers trade back, likelihood goes up quite a bit.

Deshaun Watson - 5-1 odds - If drafted in the first round, Watson will probably be going in the mid-20s and back. I have major concerns about his arm strength and accuracy. I don't personally think he should be drafted prior to the mid-to-late 2nd round, but I would not be surprised if the Chargers grabbed him with their second round pick if he’s sitting there. Out of the top 4 guys, I would hate this pick the most. I just don’t think he has an NFL-caliber arm. On Walter Football’s draft rankings, they stated that multiple teams had a third round grade on him, and I agree. The only thing pushing his value up is the obvious weaknesses of this Quarterback class.

DeShone Kizer - 10-1 odds - Has all the tools to be a starting NFL Quarterback, but has never shown he can actually be a starting NFL QB. Doesn't really have good vision and doesn't progress very well. He only completed 58% of his passes his senior year and threw too many interceptions for an elite college QB. He moves better than his combine numbers suggest, which will drive up his stock even more, but I have a hard time backing players who don't have the on-field production to back up his draft position. He has always had a good supporting cast, and still wasn't phenomenal. I have a hard time saying he should be drafted prior to the late 2nd round, but some team will be salivating about his measurables and will take him much too early.

Patrick Mahomes - 10-1 odds - Mahomes scares me. In most drafts, he would probably go early in the 2nd round. Not because he lacks in any talent, because he is one of the most talented gunslingers in recent memory, but because he is very raw. He has no experience in a pro-style offense, and his decision making is downright scary at times. That being said, he is like a magician on the field, and everything seems to go his way. Try this on for a stat line: 5052 yards, 41 TDs, and 10 INTs passing. 131 rushes for 285 yards and 12 TDs. This was all in one year. He has all the physical tools to become a very good quarterback in the NFL and was a phenomenal one in college, but he definitely needs to sit for a couple seasons before starting. The perfect place for him would be somewhere he could sit and learn behind an established, but older quarterback. Those places (in no particular order) would be the Chargers, Steelers, Saints, Giants, Patriots, Cardinals, and the Chiefs. You can probably cross the Pats off this list due to their infatuation with Garoppolo. My worry is that a team like the Browns, 49ers, Jets, Texans or the Bears will take Mahomes mid to late 1st round, and throw him into the flames day one as a starter. I firmly believe that would ruin him and his potential in the NFL. He needs a couple years to learn how to run a pro-style offense, and there would be no better place than the Los Angeles Chargers with Philip Rivers.

Hey, Tom Telesco, Anthony Lynn, and Spanos family... If you want to get the city excited, picking a QB for the future could be a great way to do it. We won’t be mad if you trade back in the first, or trade back into the 1st to select him. Actually, please do. We’re counting on you.