Sometimes you just watch sports for “the love of the game.” Me? Not so much. I’m what one would call a degenerate. If I’m going to watch something it’s so much more entertaining for me to have a horse in the race. There were some Sunday’s where I had a hand in damn near every game. My record this year when you combine betting against the spread, over/unders, and teasers, is 28-19. In the playoffs I’m 10-6. The Giants burned me pretty good wild card weekend & for because I’m an idiot I thought the Texans would cover against New England. The conference championships were no brainers though and that got me back on track. Just laying all this out there so you know whether to take what you’re reading with a grain of salt or not. Mostly my strategy has been fade the public the majority of the year.

Props

The Super Bowl is amazing because you name it, you can bet on it. From the length of the national anthem, to the color of Lady Gaga’s hair, to if the MVP will say a specific word in a speech. It’s really amazing. I tried to find the 5 best props that I feel are “locks.” There are bettors that don’t believe in giving money. For example “-140” is stay away for some folks. If you think it’s a lock then I have zero problem paying more. Just something else to keep in mind. Here are the 5 props that I’m hammering for the game.

5) Matt Ryan UNDER 320.5 passing yards. -110. Over 26.5 completions. -115.

Ryan has been over this figure comfortably the last 3 games. I don’t see the Pats giving up the big play this game. They’re going to make him dink and dunk. If you remember what the Cardinals did to the Falcons, be physical with the receivers, play a lot of combination zones, and try to confuse Ryan, that’s what I see New England going for.

Because of this Falcons will march on 8-12 play drives which means plenty of completions. I feel great about Ryan going over 26.5 completions. He has 9 times this year including 3 of the last 4 games. In the playoffs teams play to their strengths. The box score tells me this game will be in Ryan's hands.

4) James White rushing/receiving 28.5 yards -140. 1st reception under 7.5 yards -130.

This is a 2 for 1. I think this is a James White game for the Pats. At least from a volume standpoint. Atlanta is speedy on defense and conventional wisdom says it’ll be Dion Lewis to counter that. I think they go with the better, more savvy receiver in White.

Also think his 1st catch will be a quick check down to the flats.

3) Julian Edelman over 7.5 catches. -130

We’ve seen in the playoffs that Edelman has been Brady’s security blanket. I love his game. I think he’s way better than given credit for. I think he’s a tough match up for the Falcons corners. Edelman has had 8 catches the last 3 games and none of them have been close. If he gets a gimme like a screen this bet should be a breeze.

2) Will the Falcons score on their opening drive -140?

Um. YES. Kid Shanahan is a top 3 play-caller in the NFL. Atlanta has scored an opening drive TD in a ridiculous 8 straight games. With 2 weeks to break down how he’s going to attack the Patriots defense, I have a hard time imagining the Falcons don’t put up at least 3 points on their opening drive. This has sucker bet written all over it and I’ll be the sucker.

1. Tevin Coleman receiving yards over 31.5 -110. Coleman receptions over 3. +110

Suckerrrrrr bet. And I’m taking both. I think Coleman has too much speed for the Patriots and he’ll be able to get over 3 receptions pretty easily. My guess is they split him out and isolate him against linebackers ala the Denver game and he just rakes.

Over/Under

The 1st half under was a big hit for me on prime-time regular season games. It’s at 28.5. That’s the 2nd highest line I’ve seen this year. I think both teams will score early and then the offenses will stall for a a couple series. Enough where 17-10 or 14-13 gets us a win. If you’re riding with me on this, we are praying for field goals. The one reason I would be worried about this is because Atlanta’s red zone defense is horrendous. Offenses scored a TD 72% of the time in the red area against them. That’s dead last in the NFL. For reference the Chargers were league average at 54%. The Patriots are 7th at 50%.

If the 1st half under hits I’ll likely bet the 2nd half over. Think it’s key for bettors to remember that these are 2 separate things.

Spread

Surprisingly the line hasn’t budged from New England -3. In a dream world the Patriots score 1st and you can get a better live number. I’ll have a 5dimes tab open and will mash the refresh button often for this game. I like Atlanta and the points and I’m throwing money on the money line of +140 as well.

The Pats are the Pats. But they’ve looked vulnerable at times these playoffs. Granted, the Texans defense is very good and the Steelers have a top 10 offense, but they have been the beneficiary of bad football and mistakes. Which is an area the Falcons have stayed away from. A crazy Atlanta stat is they’ve had more drives end without a punt than with a punt. That’s silly. That’s how hyper efficient they’ve been on offense. The Falcons lead the league in yards per drive and points per drive. The Patriots defense is league average and will see a set of skill players that are all flat out more athletic than them. A drive that ends in a field goal is a win for the Patriots. They’ll need to do what the Cardinals did and get in throwing lanes and tip passes to hope for a turnover. That is their only chance to get stops. I do think up front they can get pressure by stunting but you run the risk of getting gashed against the run by doing that. I’m essentially betting on the best unit in the game, Atlanta’s offense, being the best unit in the game and Atlanta’s speed on defense being just good enough to slow New England's offense, which is damn good in their own right.

31-27 Falcons. MVP Tevin Coleman.