For those that are unaware, I am the producer of a NFL Media podcast that uses predictive analytics to try and guess what is going to happen around the National Football League before it actually does.
Typically, our math whiz Cynthia Frelund inputs her statistics (along with a few other bits of information that she gets from weekly chats with NFL coaches and scouts) and runs 10,000 simulations of each matchup, and from that we get the most likely score of the upcoming game.
However, this week she added the confidence of her winner. Basically, how strongly did she feel that the winner of the game would win that game?
In the case of the Chargers, you’d imagine the number would be high based on the 4-point win her system spit out. That would be underestimating her system, that is smart enough to figure out that the Chargers are either bad or good and there’s really no in between.
If they’re good, they’ll probably win by 4 points or more. If they’re bad, they could lose by 4 points or more. Based on everything she’s seen on paper and on film over the last month, her model says there’s a 53.2% chance the good Chargers show up and the Bolts end up all alone atop the division come Sunday morning. That’s good news for the podcast’s other host, the radio voice of the Chargers, Matt “Money” Smith.
Math is fun, right? Here’s the podcast, for those wanting to give it a listen. We kick things off with a run-down of AFC playoff odds and go right into the Chargers game in the beginning of it.
If you like what you hear, go ahead and subscribe. We also read our favorite iTunes reviews at the end of each episode, so have fun getting creative with that.