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Open Thread: Houston Texans at New England Patriots

Discuss the Texans at Patriots game with your fellow Chargers fans.

Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Are The Texans More Likely To Pull Off An Upset In A Low-Scoring Game?
Let’s say the Texans pull off the upset. Are they more likely to do so in a low-scoring game, or in a shootout? If Houston wins 14-13, they will have come in under their projected points total by 0.5, but held New England to 17 fewer points than expected. If the Texans win 31-30, they would have exceeded their projected points total by 16.5 points, while holding New England to exactly the number of expected points.
So, which result is more likely? My intuition says a low-scoring game, but what do the numbers say? There have been 24 games since 1985 where a team won despite being an underdog of at least 14 points. As it turns out, intuition is correct: on average, these underdogs exceeded their projected points for total by 7.8 points, but held their opponents to 13.3 fewer points than expected.