2016 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 1

Football is back! That means Power Rankings are back too, as is our weekly tradition of plugging all the rankings into our Rankotron 7000 to get a sense for how all 32 teams stack up.

Did we all have a good offseason? Stay out of trouble? Mostly? Well, I haven't seen any of you on TMZ so that's a good sign.

Football is officially back tonight! For Chargers fans, it's watching the hated division rival host the team owned by the person who worked just as hard as Dean Spanos to move the team up north; can't wait! In all seriousness, meaningful football is better than no football, and it can be enjoyed even without a rooting interest.

That said, welcome back to everyone's favorite regular feature: the NFL Power Rankings Consensus. If you know what this is, welcome back! If not, don't worry, I'll hold your hand through the process.

Notable Quotes

The Chargers have the best quarterback in the AFC West in Philip Rivers. But how free-agent additions like receiver Travis Benjamin, safety Dwight Lowery, center Matt Slauson and nose tackle Brandon Mebane perform around the veteran quarterback will determine whether the Chargers make the playoffs. If San Diego can stay relatively healthy and the defense plays to its potential, then the Chargers can be in the postseason conversation at the end of the season.

Philip Rivers has a good shot at throwing for more than 4,500 yards. The Chargers also have a good chance of winning fewer than five games. As a whole, San Diego looks like it’s in for a rough 2016 season. The schedule isn’t favorable and the AFC West is stacked, which doesn’t bode well for a team that didn’t improve a whole lot in the offseason.

Joey Bosa finally signed his rookie contract, bringing an unnecessary standoff to its inevitable conclusion. It was like a TV sitcom that pretends the two leads won’t end up together. "Oh, Ross and Rachel got back together? No way." But anyone who saw the Chargers’ D-line play this preseason knows how desperately it needs Bosa’s presence.

Division Averages

Before we get to looking at where all the teams rank, let's take look at the bigger picture in the NFL. This table takes the average rankings for each team, then averages the rankings of each team in the division. It's used as a way of showing where the tougher and weaker divisions lie each week.

So, as you can see, I'm including the averages from the last week of last season. I did it this way to see how much things have changed between seasons.

Stock Rising

All of these rankings were done after Romo's injury, so the fact that the Cowboys still rose 9 spots over last year is a testament to how much they've improved this year. Curious to see how much they would have risen had Romo not broken in half.

Stock Falling

In past years, at the start of the season, pundits would collectively over-rank the Rams thinking "this would finally be the year." And then it would turn out that, no, it wasn't the year for the Rams. Pundits are certainly not doing that this year.

And I'm trying to avoid drawing parallels to the Raiders.

Subjective Average

We'll start off with the Subjective Average. These rankings are the ones that has actual people ranking the teams based on their gut feelings. You'll see in a moment that some of these sites may even just throw darts at a board, or have a chicken pecking at numbers.

I then take all those rankings and average them together, then sort the table based on the average ranking. This method evens out the peaks and valleys and allows us to get a more reliable "big picture" view of the perception of where teams rank in the league.

	Subjective
	ESPN	Fox	CBS	USA	SI	PFT	NFL	SBN	Reddit	AP		Average		Change in Value
Cardinals	4	5	3	1	2	5	2	1	2	2		2.700		-1.336
Panthers	5	4	6	3	1	2	1	4	1	1		2.800		-1.073
Seahawks	1	1	4	5	4	4	3	3	3	4		3.200		4.527
Patriots	3	2	2	2	5	3	5	2	4	5		3.300		-0.300
Packers	6	3	1	6	9	7	4	5	5	3		4.900		4.373
Steelers	2	6	7	4	6	6	7	7	7	7		5.900		3.827
Broncos	8	8	8	7	3	1	6	10	8	6		6.500		-1.500
Bengals	7	7	5	8	7	8	9	6	6	9		7.200		-0.473
Chiefs	9	10	10	9	8	10	8	12	9	8		9.300		-3.664
Vikings	12	9	11	10	12	11	10	8	14	10		10.700		-1.700
Raiders	11	11	14	11	13	12	11	9	13	13		11.800		2.200
Texans	13	13	16	12	11	13	12	16	10	12		12.800		0.836
Redskins	14	16	18	13	18	9	13	11	12	11		13.500		-1.227
Jets	10	20	23	14	10	17	14	17	11	15		15.100		-7.282
Ravens	15	19	17	18	15	16	20	15	19	14		16.800		8.746
Giants	17	15	9	15	14	27	19	22	17	17		17.200		3.346
Jaguars	19	18	12	16	21	18	17	14	23	18		17.600		8.309
Cowboys	23	12	13	22	16	14	18	13	24	22		17.700		10.209
Colts	18	14	15	17	23	15	24	23	16	16		18.100		1.355
Bills	16	22	20	19	19	29	16	18	15	21		19.500		-3.500
Buccaneers	24	17	26	20	25	20	15	29	21	20		21.700		1.391
Falcons	22	21	28	21	26	24	25	19	18	19		22.300		-7.391
Lions	20	26	21	23	20	23	23	27	20	23		22.600		-2.327
Dolphins	21	25	19	25	24	19	21	25	25	25		22.900		4.373
Saints	27	23	22	26	22	22	27	24	22	24		23.900		-2.173
Bears	29	27	27	24	17	25	30	32	26	29		26.600		-5.873
Rams	28	30	25	27	29	21	28	26	27	26		26.700		-9.609
Titans	30	28	30	29	30	26	22	20	30	27		27.200		4.618
Chargers	26	29	24	28	28	30	29	21	29	30		27.400		0.873
Eagles	25	24	29	30	27	31	26	28	28	28		27.600		-7.236
49ers	32	32	31	31	32	28	31	30	31	31		30.900		-0.627
Browns	31	31	32	32	31	32	32	31	32	32		31.600		-1.691

Observations:

• The change in value column refers to the team's ranking in Week 17 of the 2015 season.
• Huh, I would have expected the Panthers or Packers to be at the top of the list. I mean, nothing against the Cardinals, but I'm surprised.
• Still a bit surprised to see the Brady-less Patriots still ranked so high right now.
• I don't think anyone expects the Broncos to be the best team in the league, but PFT explains their number-one ranking thusly: "The defending champion gets two things: A regular-season home opener on Thursday night (unless the local baseball team is in town) and the top spot in the initial PFT power rankings until they lose. Which could happen very, very soon."
• The Chargers are ranked 27.400 on average which seems low, but you can take solace in knowing they rose almost a full spot from where they ended the 2015 season!
• Poor Browns, always the bottom of the barrel.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Put simply, Standard Deviation is a tool in statistics to measure how much variance there is in a set of numbers. To put more simply: I use it to look at who's ranked the most- and least-consistently. In Standard Deviation, the lower the number, the more consistent the values in the set.

For our purposes, this means the lower the Standard Deviation, the more consistent the rankings. The opposite is true too: the higher the number, the less consistent the rankings.

This table is sorted by most-consistently ranked to least-consistently ranked.

	Subjective
	ESPN	Fox	CBS	USA	SI	PFT	NFL	SBN	Reddit	AP		STD DEV		Change in Value
Browns	31	31	32	32	31	32	32	31	32	32		0.490		-0.593
49ers	32	32	31	31	32	28	31	30	31	31		1.136		0.084
Chiefs	9	10	10	9	8	10	8	12	9	8		1.187		-1.120
Bengals	7	7	5	8	7	8	9	6	6	9		1.249		-0.352
Seahawks	1	1	4	5	4	4	3	3	3	4		1.249		-0.171
Patriots	3	2	2	2	5	3	5	2	4	5		1.269		0.843
Raiders	11	11	14	11	13	12	11	9	13	13		1.400		-0.600
Cardinals	4	5	3	1	2	5	2	1	2	2		1.418		0.775
Steelers	2	6	7	4	6	6	7	7	7	7		1.578		-0.185
Vikings	12	9	11	10	12	11	10	8	14	10		1.616		-0.090
Panthers	5	4	6	3	1	2	1	4	1	1		1.778		1.333
Texans	13	13	16	12	11	13	12	16	10	12		1.833		0.279
Saints	27	23	22	26	22	22	27	24	22	24		1.972		-0.794
Ravens	15	19	17	18	15	16	20	15	19	14		1.990		-0.199
Eagles	25	24	29	30	27	31	26	28	28	28		2.059		-0.437
Packers	6	3	1	6	9	7	4	5	5	3		2.166		0.030
Lions	20	26	21	23	20	23	23	27	20	23		2.332		-0.084
Rams	28	30	25	27	29	21	28	26	27	26		2.369		0.926
Dolphins	21	25	19	25	24	19	21	25	25	25		2.468		1.606
Broncos	8	8	8	7	3	1	6	10	8	6		2.540		1.003
Chargers	26	29	24	28	28	30	29	21	29	30		2.764		0.853
Redskins	14	16	18	13	18	9	13	11	12	11		2.872		0.612
Jaguars	19	18	12	16	21	18	17	14	23	18		3.007		1.924
Falcons	22	21	28	21	26	24	25	19	18	19		3.164		1.283
Titans	30	28	30	29	30	26	22	20	30	27		3.400		2.825
Colts	18	14	15	17	23	15	24	23	16	16		3.590		1.164
Bills	16	22	20	19	19	29	16	18	15	21		3.828		2.414
Bears	29	27	27	24	17	25	30	32	26	29		3.929		1.880
Buccaneers	24	17	26	20	25	20	15	29	21	20		4.051		2.887
Jets	10	20	23	14	10	17	14	17	11	15		4.061		1.439
Cowboys	23	12	13	22	16	14	18	13	24	22		4.451		2.176
Giants	17	15	9	15	14	27	19	22	17	17		4.578		1.522

Observations:

• The change in value column refers to the team's ranking in Week 17 of the 2015 season.
• The fact that most teams saw their deviation go up is no surprise, there is a lot of volatility to start the season.
• As is typical, it's easier to figure out which teams are not good than which teams are good.
• For the most part, this is consensus about which teams are top-12, just questions of in which order.
• Teams from New York Jersey must be an enigma

Sources

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