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Chargers Over/Under Bets for 2016

NFL: Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Recently, Bovada released their over/under stat lines for a group of San Diego Chargers players. The site has some interesting lines set for some Chargers that should raise some eyebrows. Let’s break down the lines and take a look at how these players will stack up against the odds.

Philip Rivers Passing Yards: 4350

This is a tough one. Last season Rivers threw well over 4500 yards and had another great year. Rivers hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down and should reach 4,000 yards this season if he plays a full season. The development of a solid running game could become an issue. If Melvin Gordon is able to have a productive year, it could cause Rivers’ stats to take a minor hit. That may not be a bad thing for the Chargers offense, but it could anger some fantasy owners and gamblers. It’d be best to go under with this category, the Chargers are going to force the ball in Gordon’s hands this season.

Philip Rivers Passing TDs: 27.5

Yet again, another tough decision to make here. Based on history, going with the over would be the right move. Rivers has thrown for at least 27 TDs in seven of his last eight seasons. With a plethora of weapons on the outside and Danny Woodhead coming out of the backfield, Rivers could reach 30 TDs this year. Take the over and trust Rivers has another great year in him.

Philip Rivers INTs: 13.5

Rivers had only 13 interceptions last season on a team that had no running game. Rivers was asked to carry the team on offense and he still was able to avoid turnovers as much as he could. Back in 2013, when Ken Whisenhunt was hired as the offensive coordinator, Rivers only threw 11 picks. “Whiz” has made his triumphant return to San Diego. This doesn’t mean Rivers is going to throw single digit picks, but he shouldn’t be far off those numbers from 2013. Take the under and hope the Chargers can run the ball a lot in the fourth quarter.

Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards: 875

Melvin Gordon Rushing & Receiving TDs: 4.5

Our own Richard Wade gave his thoughts on these two lines and I couldn’t agree with him more. Take the over on both of them. From the looks of him, Gordon is going to be a better player in his sophomore season. With a healthy and improved offense as a whole, Gordon should be able to rush for around 1,000 yards and 5+ TDs.

Keenan Allen Receiving Yards: 1050

Over. The only way Keenan Allen does not surpass this numbers is because he misses almost half of the season. In 8 games in 2015, Allen had 725 yards receiving. He was on pace for 1450 yards. That is a tremendous season and if Allen stays healthy and avoids another freak injury, he will be well over 1000 yards and be in reach of 1500 yards.

Keenan Allen Receiving TDs: 6

Over. Allen is the number one receiving option and although he isn’t the best deep threat or red zone target, he catches everything thrown his way. Allen should be good for six touchdown catches on screens and catches where he is running open over the middle. What may scare some is the three new weapons Rivers will have at his exposal. Hunter Henry, Travis Benjamin, and Tyrell Williams are going to take some targets away from Allen. It will take time for the trio to build the chemistry with Rivers that Allen already has. Allen will be gone too early and often in the passing game while the other three are gaining a rapport with Rivers.

Travis Benjamin Receiving Yards: 725

Benjamin is a tough read heading into the regular season, but under is probably the right call. Benjamin is going to be used as a jack of all trades and have some massive plays during the season. With deep balls down the field and short passes where he is given space that would allow him to make catches for big gains. The only issue is, he may go cold for stretches. He doesn’t have the size of Williams nor does he have the footwork of Allen. Benjamin is going to have a good year in San Diego, the consistency is the only concern.

Travis Benjamin TDs: 4.5

With Benjamin’s big play ability, taking the over is the correct call. Benjamin should be in a position to make game-breaking plays and with a quarterback as good as Philip Rivers, they should hook up for touchdowns on a few occasions. Being on the field with tight ends like Gates and Henry will allow him to sneak across the back of the end zone for a red zone touchdown or two as well.

Antonio Gates Receiving Yards: 650

Well, Gates is getting up there in age and every year I think he is going to slow down. It has yet to happen. In all likelihood, Gates will miss a few games next year due to injury and that seems to be the only thing that will stop him from having 650 yards receiving. The injuries are just too likely and that is why the under is the safe bet here. Gates also has a very good backup out of Arkansas. Hunter Henry is an NFL ready player. He will be looked up to lessen the load and take some production away from Gates.

Antonio Gates TDs: 5.5

It’s very hard to take the under when it comes to Gates’ touchdown production. He is still a tremendous threat in the red zone and Rivers looks for Gates every single time the team is there. It may be a risk but take the over. Gates should get a bunch of red zone targets and with all of the new weapons, defenses will be running wild trying to cover all of the receivers. It will leave ol’ reliable open to hook up with his favorite quarterback a couple more times.

Melvin Ingram Sacks: 8

After his first season with double-digit sacks in 2015, Melvin Ingram needs to prove that he is worth a multi-year contract extension. The talent is there, the consistency has been what’s missing. The injuries have taken their toll on Ingram but this year he is entering the season healthy and should be a force off the edge. With an improved defensive line, Ingram should see less double teams which will make it easier for him to get to the quarterback. In Ingram’s contract year this is a definite over.