Before the season even started, many were laughing at the prospects of Carson Wentz leading the Eagles to any sort of success. When Teddy Bridgewater's knee exploded, many were writing eulogies about the 2016 Vikings season. Who's laughing now? Where are those obituaries?
There's a narrative emerging in the national media: are the Eagles for real? The very question introduces some doubt in their 3-0 start. The conventional wisdom being, "there's no way they can be this good. Carson Wentz? Really?"
Conversely, heading into the season, people were very high on the Vikings this year; and then Teddy Bridgewater went down. Eulogies were written. Thinkpieces pondering how the Vikings could possibly turn the season around (when it hadn't even started yet). Then the season started, and the Vikings showed they weren't dead. Their defense is rivaling the vaunted Denver Broncos'. And now without their two key offensive players in Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson, nobody is sweating.
Author's Note: I missed getting this done last week because it was crunch time at work. So all the comparisons and "differences" columns will be referencing the Week 2 rankings.
The Chargers are well on their way to being the league’s best 5–11 team, which comes with the likely prize package of a top-10 pick and a new coach. And if the Chargers’ bid on their own showcase comes within $100 of being correct, they also win the other showcase: a new stadium, a jet ski and a DVD collection of Alec Baldwin movies.
The Chargers front office announced today that they will be preemptively injuring their star players. Sources close to the team speculate that a shipment of baseball bats and ski masks might have something to do with their plan. Meanwhile, the players union has sent bubble wrap and duct tape to cushion the legs, feet, and ankles of every Chargers player on the roster. When asked if something in the San Diego water supply was causing these injuries, government officials were quoted as saying, "no Charge no".
Evaluating this Chargers' defense is beyond difficult. Both of San Diego's losses felt like that girl who matches you on Bumble but never sends you a follow-up message. Then there was the blowout win against the Jags, which seemed like an easy stroll by a dominant D -- but we know that's not the case. The unit was viable on Sunday. Unfortunately, the absence of Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead made it harder to pull off the road win.
Before we get to looking at where all the teams rank, let's take look at the bigger picture in the NFL. This table takes the average rankings for each team, then averages the rankings of each team in the division. It's used as a way of showing where the tougher and weaker divisions lie each week.
Division | Week 2 Average | Week 4 Average | Difference |
---|---|---|---|
AFC West | 13.050 | 11.659 | 1.391 |
NFC East | 19.063 | 15.250 | 3.813 |
AFC East | 15.963 | 15.284 | 0.679 |
AFC North | 14.313 | 15.750 | -1.437 |
NFC North | 14.838 | 15.818 | -0.980 |
NFC West | 15.550 | 15.841 | -0.291 |
NFC South | 18.438 | 19.568 | -1.130 |
AFC South | 20.788 | 22.830 | -2.042 |
Team | Week 2 Average | Week 4 Average | Difference |
---|---|---|---|
PHI | 18.480 | 5.318 | 13.162 |
ATL | 25.444 | 16.545 | 8.899 |
DAL | 21.424 | 14.500 | 6.924 |
STL | 27.646 | 20.773 | 6.873 |
MIN | 10.955 | 4.682 | 6.273 |
Atlanta's nearly-9-point rise would certainly be noteworthy on its own, if it wasn't for Philadelphia's 13 point rise.
Team | Week 2 Average | Week 4 Average | Difference |
---|---|---|---|
TB | 17.879 | 25.318 | -7.439 |
JAX | 23.030 | 29.409 | -6.379 |
CIN | 7.848 | 13.909 | -6.061 |
DET | 16.136 | 22.045 | -5.909 |
PIT | 3.924 | 8.727 | -4.803 |
We'll start off with the Subjective Average. These rankings are the ones that has actual people ranking the teams based on their gut feelings. You'll see in a moment that some of these sites may even just throw darts at a board, or have a chicken pecking at numbers.
I then take all those rankings and average them together, then sort the table based on the average ranking. This method evens out the peaks and valleys and allows us to get a more reliable "big picture" view of the perception of where teams rank in the league.
Subjective | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ESPN | Fox | CBS | USA | SI | PFT | NFL | SN | SBN | AP | Average | Change in Value | |||||
1 | Patriots | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.273 | -0.091 ![]() |
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2 | Broncos | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1.727 | 1.637 ![]() |
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3 | Vikings | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.091 | 7.818 ![]() |
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4 | Eagles | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 5.273 | 15.909 ![]() |
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5 | Packers | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 5.364 | -1.455 ![]() |
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6 | Seahawks | 3 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6.182 | -1.546 ![]() |
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7 | Steelers | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 7.182 | -3.000 ![]() |
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8 | Ravens | 10 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 8.546 | 5.545 ![]() |
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9 | Panthers | 8 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 9.364 | -3.909 ![]() |
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10 | Chiefs | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9.636 | 0.364 ![]() |
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11 | Cardinals | 5 | 9 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 12.091 | -4.455 ![]() |
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12 | Cowboys | 11 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 12.909 | 6.273 ![]() |
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13 | Texans | 16 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 18 | 13 | 12 | 13.182 | -2.182 ![]() |
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14 | Bengals | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 13.455 | -7.091 ![]() |
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15 | Raiders | 14 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 14.273 | -3.364 ![]() |
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16 | Giants | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 11 | 14.364 | -0.546 ![]() |
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17 | Falcons | 18 | 12 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 13 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 15.455 | 10.545 ![]() |
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18 | Jets | 19 | 26 | 19 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 19.000 | -2.273 ![]() |
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19 | Rams | 24 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 18 | 22 | 23 | 19 | 19.909 | 11.273 ![]() |
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20 | Redskins | 20 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 21 | 24 | 22 | 22 | 17 | 22 | 20 | 21.364 | -2.455 ![]() |
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21 | Colts | 23 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 23 | 24 | 19 | 22 | 21.818 | -0.182 ![]() |
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22 | Bills | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 20 | 25 | 19 | 27 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 22.364 | 1.818 ![]() |
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23 | Lions | 17 | 27 | 27 | 20 | 27 | 27 | 20 | 21 | 27 | 21 | 24 | 23.455 | -5.182 ![]() |
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24 | Chargers | 21 | 20 | 21 | 26 | 23 | 28 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 25 | 23 | 23.546 | 3.909 ![]() |
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25 | Buccaneers | 28 | 25 | 25 | 22 | 24 | 21 | 23 | 20 | 26 | 24 | 25 | 23.909 | -7.818 ![]() |
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26 | Dolphins | 25 | 24 | 23 | 27 | 25 | 20 | 27 | 28 | 21 | 26 | 26 | 24.727 | -2.636 ![]() |
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27 | Titans | 26 | 21 | 28 | 24 | 26 | 22 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 29 | 27 | 25.364 | 3.000 ![]() |
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28 | 49ers | 30 | 28 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 26 | 28 | 26 | 30 | 27 | 28 | 27.909 | -1.909 ![]() |
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29 | Saints | 27 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 29 | 28.727 | -4.454 ![]() |
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30 | Jaguars | 29 | 29 | 31 | 30 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 29.818 | -11.091 ![]() |
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31 | Browns | 32 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 29 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 31.273 | 0.454 ![]() |
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32 | Bears | 31 | 32 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 31.455 | -2.909 ![]() |
Put simply, Standard Deviation is a tool in statistics to measure how much variance there is in a set of numbers. To put more simply: I use it to look at who's ranked the most- and least-consistently. In Standard Deviation, the lower the number, the more consistent the values in the set.
For our purposes, this means the lower the Standard Deviation, the more consistent the rankings. The opposite is true too: the higher the number, the less consistent the rankings.
This table is sorted by most-consistently ranked to least-consistently ranked.
Subjective | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ESPN | Fox | CBS | USA | SI | PFT | NFL | SN | SBN | AP | STD DEV | Change in Value | |||||
1 | Vikings | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0.288 | -2.141 ![]() |
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2 | Broncos | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.445 | -1.612 ![]() |
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3 | Patriots | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.445 | 0.059 ![]() |
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4 | Bears | 31 | 32 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 0.656 | -0.960 ![]() |
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5 | Saints | 27 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 29 | 0.750 | -0.670 ![]() |
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6 | Jaguars | 29 | 29 | 31 | 30 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 0.833 | -1.729 ![]() |
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7 | Browns | 32 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 29 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 0.862 | 0.417 ![]() |
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8 | Eagles | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 1.286 | -1.157 ![]() |
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9 | Packers | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 1.432 | -0.543 ![]() |
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10 | 49ers | 30 | 28 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 26 | 28 | 26 | 30 | 27 | 28 | 1.505 | -1.192 ![]() |
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11 | Raiders | 14 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 1.543 | 0.303 ![]() |
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12 | Ravens | 10 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 1.559 | -0.005 ![]() |
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13 | Seahawks | 3 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 1.641 | -0.182 ![]() |
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14 | Colts | 23 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 23 | 24 | 19 | 22 | 1.749 | -1.851 ![]() |
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15 | Redskins | 20 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 21 | 24 | 22 | 22 | 17 | 22 | 20 | 1.772 | -1.375 ![]() |
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16 | Steelers | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 2.037 | 0.845 ![]() |
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17 | Giants | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 11 | 2.057 | -0.733 ![]() |
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18 | Rams | 24 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 18 | 22 | 23 | 19 | 2.109 | 1.534 ![]() |
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19 | Buccaneers | 28 | 25 | 25 | 22 | 24 | 21 | 23 | 20 | 26 | 24 | 25 | 2.193 | -1.257 ![]() |
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20 | Titans | 26 | 21 | 28 | 24 | 26 | 22 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 29 | 27 | 2.267 | 0.547 ![]() |
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21 | Falcons | 18 | 12 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 13 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 2.271 | -0.141 ![]() |
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22 | Chargers | 21 | 20 | 21 | 26 | 23 | 28 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 25 | 23 | 2.271 | 0.494 ![]() |
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23 | Jets | 19 | 26 | 19 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 2.296 | -0.599 ![]() |
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24 | Chiefs | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 2.307 | 1.262 ![]() |
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25 | Panthers | 8 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 2.385 | 1.012 ![]() |
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26 | Dolphins | 25 | 24 | 23 | 27 | 25 | 20 | 27 | 28 | 21 | 26 | 26 | 2.416 | -0.981 ![]() |
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27 | Bengals | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 2.426 | 0.506 ![]() |
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28 | Bills | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 20 | 25 | 19 | 27 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 2.496 | -0.884 ![]() |
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29 | Texans | 16 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 18 | 13 | 12 | 2.657 | 0.568 ![]() |
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30 | Cardinals | 5 | 9 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 2.968 | 1.536 ![]() |
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31 | Cowboys | 11 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 3.059 | -0.294 ![]() |
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32 | Lions | 17 | 27 | 27 | 20 | 27 | 27 | 20 | 21 | 27 | 21 | 24 | 3.577 | 1.051 ![]() |
I call these rankings the "Objective" rankings because unlike the rankings above, these are rankings based on statistical models of some sort. I use the term "Objective" loosely here because there is still some inherent bias in how the various models are constructed. Each ranking site has their own criteria in what they feel is success in the NFL.
All that said, these rankings are more objective as they remove perception and bias and produce rankings based on how well teams actually play, not how they're perceived to play.
Objective | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO | TR | SAG | BG | Aikman | PFR | CHFF | Massey | ARGH | 538 | FPI | Average | Change in Value | ||||
1 | Patriots | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2.182 | 6.040 ![]() |
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2 | Broncos | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4.546 | 5.676 ![]() |
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3 | Chiefs | 2 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 5.364 | 2.525 ![]() |
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4 | Eagles | 6 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 5.364 | 10.414 ![]() |
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5 | Vikings | 9 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6.273 | 4.727 ![]() |
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6 | Packers | 5 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 7.273 | -1.606 ![]() |
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7 | Seahawks | 1 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 7.273 | -0.940 ![]() |
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8 | Cardinals | 4 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 8.546 | -2.213 ![]() |
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9 | Panthers | 11 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 8.636 | -1.525 ![]() |
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10 | Steelers | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 24 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 10.273 | -6.606 ![]() |
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11 | Ravens | 7 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 11 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 21 | 12.364 | 1.747 ![]() |
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12 | Bills | 18 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 13.546 | 2.010 ![]() |
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13 | Bengals | 12 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 28 | 21 | 21 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 14.364 | -5.031 ![]() |
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14 | Cowboys | 13 | 21 | 13 | 15 | 5 | 28 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 16.091 | 7.576 ![]() |
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15 | Texans | 28 | 15 | 16 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 22 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 17 | 16.455 | -3.233 ![]() |
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16 | Chargers | 14 | 13 | 18 | 30 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 20 | 26 | 12 | 16.909 | 2.980 ![]() |
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17 | Raiders | 15 | 16 | 15 | 26 | 4 | 25 | 13 | 18 | 21 | 23 | 14 | 17.273 | -2.495 ![]() |
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18 | Falcons | 17 | 19 | 17 | 25 | 20 | 24 | 10 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 17.636 | 7.253 ![]() |
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19 | Jets | 26 | 18 | 19 | 11 | 22 | 20 | 29 | 14 | 19 | 13 | 18 | 19.000 | -1.889 ![]() |
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20 | Dolphins | 27 | 17 | 21 | 19 | 23 | 6 | 17 | 22 | 22 | 25 | 23 | 20.182 | 2.374 ![]() |
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21 | Giants | 19 | 24 | 23 | 16 | 18 | 30 | 9 | 19 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 20.273 | -3.940 ![]() |
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22 | Lions | 16 | 22 | 25 | 28 | 24 | 15 | 16 | 23 | 17 | 17 | 24 | 20.636 | -6.636 ![]() |
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23 | Colts | 22 | 20 | 20 | 29 | 9 | 17 | 27 | 24 | 23 | 21 | 16 | 20.727 | -2.060 ![]() |
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24 | Rams | 20 | 23 | 22 | 10 | 27 | 26 | 28 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 31 | 21.636 | 2.475 ![]() |
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25 | 49ers | 30 | 25 | 24 | 21 | 14 | 18 | 20 | 26 | 24 | 24 | 29 | 23.182 | -6.626 ![]() |
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26 | Saints | 21 | 26 | 30 | 32 | 19 | 31 | 19 | 30 | 30 | 27 | 22 | 26.091 | -1.647 ![]() |
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27 | Titans | 24 | 31 | 31 | 27 | 17 | 22 | 23 | 28 | 28 | 32 | 26 | 26.273 | 1.838 ![]() |
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28 | Redskins | 25 | 29 | 28 | 20 | 31 | 32 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 22 | 27 | 26.364 | -2.031 ![]() |
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29 | Buccaneers | 23 | 28 | 26 | 23 | 26 | 29 | 32 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 25 | 26.727 | -7.060 ![]() |
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30 | Browns | 32 | 32 | 32 | 24 | 29 | 14 | 26 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 32 | 28.546 | 2.676 ![]() |
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31 | Bears | 31 | 30 | 29 | 22 | 32 | 27 | 31 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 29.000 | -3.111 ![]() |
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32 | Jaguars | 29 | 27 | 27 | 31 | 30 | 23 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 28 | 29.000 | -1.667 ![]() |
Objective | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO | TR | SAG | BG | Aikman | PFR | CHFF | Massey | ARGH | 538 | FPI | STD DEV | Change in Value | ||||
1 | Patriots | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.946 | -7.701 ![]() |
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2 | Bills | 18 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 1.971 | -1.088 ![]() |
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3 | Chiefs | 2 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 2.307 | -2.823 ![]() |
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4 | Jaguars | 29 | 27 | 27 | 31 | 30 | 23 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 28 | 2.486 | -0.303 ![]() |
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5 | Buccaneers | 23 | 28 | 26 | 23 | 26 | 29 | 32 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 25 | 2.490 | -2.652 ![]() |
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6 | Bears | 31 | 30 | 29 | 22 | 32 | 27 | 31 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 2.558 | -1.226 ![]() |
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7 | Packers | 5 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 3.305 | 0.948 ![]() |
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8 | Redskins | 25 | 29 | 28 | 20 | 31 | 32 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 22 | 27 | 3.419 | -5.092 ![]() |
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9 | Eagles | 6 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 3.600 | -3.654 ![]() |
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10 | Seahawks | 1 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 3.792 | -2.654 ![]() |
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11 | Falcons | 17 | 19 | 17 | 25 | 20 | 24 | 10 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 4.051 | 1.166 ![]() |
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12 | Panthers | 11 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 4.096 | -0.158 ![]() |
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13 | Cardinals | 4 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 4.120 | 0.958 ![]() |
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14 | Titans | 24 | 31 | 31 | 27 | 17 | 22 | 23 | 28 | 28 | 32 | 26 | 4.308 | -3.017 ![]() |
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15 | Lions | 16 | 22 | 25 | 28 | 24 | 15 | 16 | 23 | 17 | 17 | 24 | 4.312 | -0.980 ![]() |
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16 | Broncos | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4.356 | -5.198 ![]() |
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17 | Ravens | 7 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 11 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 21 | 4.375 | 0.561 ![]() |
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18 | 49ers | 30 | 25 | 24 | 21 | 14 | 18 | 20 | 26 | 24 | 24 | 29 | 4.468 | -3.780 ![]() |
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19 | Saints | 21 | 26 | 30 | 32 | 19 | 31 | 19 | 30 | 30 | 27 | 22 | 4.757 | 1.453 ![]() |
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20 | Jets | 26 | 18 | 19 | 11 | 22 | 20 | 29 | 14 | 19 | 13 | 18 | 5.099 | 0.518 ![]() |
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21 | Giants | 19 | 24 | 23 | 16 | 18 | 30 | 9 | 19 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 5.154 | 0.210 ![]() |
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22 | Steelers | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 24 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 5.224 | 2.435 ![]() |
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23 | Colts | 22 | 20 | 20 | 29 | 9 | 17 | 27 | 24 | 23 | 21 | 16 | 5.224 | 0.955 ![]() |
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24 | Browns | 32 | 32 | 32 | 24 | 29 | 14 | 26 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 32 | 5.281 | 4.054 ![]() |
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25 | Vikings | 9 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5.293 | -0.020 ![]() |
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26 | Dolphins | 27 | 17 | 21 | 19 | 23 | 6 | 17 | 22 | 22 | 25 | 23 | 5.357 | 0.256 ![]() |
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27 | Bengals | 12 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 28 | 21 | 21 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 5.851 | 1.935 ![]() |
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28 | Rams | 20 | 23 | 22 | 10 | 27 | 26 | 28 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 31 | 5.897 | -1.827 ![]() |
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29 | Raiders | 15 | 16 | 15 | 26 | 4 | 25 | 13 | 18 | 21 | 23 | 14 | 6.032 | 2.511 ![]() |
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30 | Cowboys | 13 | 21 | 13 | 15 | 5 | 28 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 6.374 | 0.958 ![]() |
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31 | Texans | 28 | 15 | 16 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 22 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 17 | 6.542 | 2.719 ![]() |
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32 | Chargers | 14 | 13 | 18 | 30 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 20 | 26 | 12 | 6.571 | 1.572 ![]() |
Now let's compare the two sets of data. We'll start with the "Overall Average" chart. This takes the Subjective Average and the Objective Average, and then averages those two numbers. This way it gives equal weight to both averages so that even though Subjective Average has a larger sample size, it doesn't drown out the Objective Average.
Subj vs Obj | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Subj Avg | Obj Avg | Average | Change in Value | ||||
1 | Patriots | 1.273 | 2.182 | 1.727 | 2.975 ![]() |
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2 | Broncos | 1.727 | 4.546 | 3.136 | 3.657 ![]() |
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3 | Vikings | 3.091 | 6.273 | 4.682 | 6.273 ![]() |
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4 | Eagles | 5.273 | 5.364 | 5.318 | 13.162 ![]() |
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5 | Packers | 5.364 | 7.273 | 6.318 | -1.530 ![]() |
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6 | Seahawks | 6.182 | 7.273 | 6.727 | -1.242 ![]() |
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7 | Chiefs | 9.636 | 5.364 | 7.500 | 1.444 ![]() |
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8 | Steelers | 7.182 | 10.273 | 8.727 | -4.803 ![]() |
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9 | Panthers | 9.364 | 8.636 | 9.000 | -2.717 ![]() |
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10 | Cardinals | 12.091 | 8.546 | 10.318 | -3.333 ![]() |
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11 | Ravens | 8.546 | 12.364 | 10.455 | 3.646 ![]() |
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12 | Bengals | 13.455 | 14.364 | 13.909 | -6.061 ![]() |
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13 | Cowboys | 12.909 | 16.091 | 14.500 | 6.924 ![]() |
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14 | Texans | 13.182 | 16.455 | 14.818 | -2.707 ![]() |
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15 | Raiders | 14.273 | 17.273 | 15.773 | -2.930 ![]() |
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16 | Falcons | 15.455 | 17.636 | 16.545 | 8.899 ![]() |
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17 | Giants | 14.364 | 20.273 | 17.318 | -2.242 ![]() |
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18 | Bills | 22.364 | 13.546 | 17.955 | 1.914 ![]() |
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19 | Jets | 19.000 | 19.000 | 19.000 | -2.081 ![]() |
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20 | Chargers | 23.546 | 16.909 | 20.227 | 3.445 ![]() |
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21 | Rams | 19.909 | 21.636 | 20.773 | 6.873 ![]() |
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22 | Colts | 21.818 | 20.727 | 21.273 | -1.121 ![]() |
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23 | Lions | 23.455 | 20.636 | 22.045 | -5.909 ![]() |
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24 | Dolphins | 24.727 | 20.182 | 22.455 | -0.132 ![]() |
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25 | Redskins | 21.364 | 26.364 | 23.864 | -2.243 ![]() |
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26 | Buccaneers | 23.909 | 26.727 | 25.318 | -7.439 ![]() |
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27 | 49ers | 27.909 | 23.182 | 25.545 | -4.267 ![]() |
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28 | Titans | 25.364 | 26.273 | 25.818 | 2.419 ![]() |
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29 | Saints | 28.727 | 26.091 | 27.409 | -3.050 ![]() |
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30 | Jaguars | 29.818 | 29.000 | 29.409 | -6.379 ![]() |
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31 | Browns | 31.273 | 28.546 | 29.909 | 1.566 ![]() |
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32 | Bears | 31.455 | 29.000 | 30.227 | -3.010 ![]() |
The Overall Standard Deviation does not average anything out, it just takes the Standard Deviation across all the rankings. Yes this will even things out slightly, but it goes to show which teams have consensus across the board.
Subj vs Obj | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Subj Avg | Obj Avg | STD DEV | Change in Value | ||||
1 | Patriots | 1.273 | 2.182 | 1.483 | -5.881 ![]() |
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2 | Jaguars | 29.818 | 29.000 | 1.899 | -3.145 ![]() |
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3 | Bears | 31.455 | 29.000 | 2.235 | -0.868 ![]() |
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4 | Eagles | 5.273 | 5.364 | 2.703 | -3.144 ![]() |
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5 | Packers | 5.364 | 7.273 | 2.720 | 0.394 ![]() |
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6 | Buccaneers | 23.909 | 26.727 | 2.737 | -1.912 ![]() |
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7 | Seahawks | 6.182 | 7.273 | 2.972 | -1.637 ![]() |
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8 | Chiefs | 9.636 | 5.364 | 3.144 | -0.537 ![]() |
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9 | Panthers | 9.364 | 8.636 | 3.371 | 0.231 ![]() |
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10 | Broncos | 1.727 | 4.546 | 3.402 | -4.017 ![]() |
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11 | Falcons | 15.455 | 17.636 | 3.461 | 0.768 ![]() |
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12 | Titans | 25.364 | 26.273 | 3.472 | -1.606 ![]() |
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13 | Saints | 28.727 | 26.091 | 3.651 | 1.196 ![]() |
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14 | Redskins | 21.364 | 26.364 | 3.696 | -3.037 ![]() |
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15 | Ravens | 8.546 | 12.364 | 3.799 | 0.990 ![]() |
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16 | Colts | 21.818 | 20.727 | 3.933 | -0.252 ![]() |
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17 | Jets | 19.000 | 19.000 | 3.954 | 0.200 ![]() |
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18 | Cardinals | 12.091 | 8.546 | 4.004 | 1.545 ![]() |
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19 | Browns | 31.273 | 28.546 | 4.022 | 3.100 ![]() |
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20 | Vikings | 3.091 | 6.273 | 4.072 | 0.079 ![]() |
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21 | 49ers | 27.909 | 23.182 | 4.087 | -3.442 ![]() |
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22 | Lions | 23.455 | 20.636 | 4.205 | -0.337 ![]() |
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23 | Steelers | 7.182 | 10.273 | 4.255 | 2.170 ![]() |
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24 | Bengals | 13.455 | 14.364 | 4.502 | 1.169 ![]() |
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25 | Rams | 19.909 | 21.636 | 4.512 | -1.765 ![]() |
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26 | Raiders | 14.273 | 17.273 | 4.651 | 1.469 ![]() |
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27 | Dolphins | 24.727 | 20.182 | 4.736 | 0.480 ![]() |
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28 | Giants | 14.364 | 20.273 | 4.912 | 0.807 ![]() |
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29 | Bills | 22.364 | 13.546 | 4.950 | -0.427 ![]() |
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30 | Cowboys | 12.909 | 16.091 | 5.246 | 0.310 ![]() |
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31 | Texans | 13.182 | 16.455 | 5.254 | 2.060 ![]() |
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32 | Chargers | 23.546 | 16.909 | 5.931 | 0.721 ![]() |
This compares the Subjective average ranking with the Objective average ranking. This tells us just how far off people are from the formulas. A positive number means people think they will be or are better than the stats indicate, a negative number means the math thinks they're better than what people think. The closer to 0 this number is, the more in agreement the Subjective and Objective rankings are.
Generally speaking, the Subjective Rankings tend to be more reactionary to a team's performance than the mathematical models are. You'll often end up with major peaks and valleys for a team in the Subjective rankings, where the Objective rankings are more steady.
Subj vs Obj | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Subj Avg | Obj Avg | Diff. in Avg | Change in Value | ||||
1 | Giants | 14.364 | 20.273 | 5.909 | 3.394 ![]() |
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2 | Redskins | 21.364 | 26.364 | 5.000 | -0.424 ![]() |
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3 | Ravens | 8.546 | 12.364 | 3.818 | 3.798 ![]() |
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4 | Texans | 13.182 | 16.455 | 3.273 | 1.051 ![]() |
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5 | Vikings | 3.091 | 6.273 | 3.182 | 3.091 ![]() |
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6 | Cowboys | 12.909 | 16.091 | 3.182 | -1.303 ![]() |
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7 | Steelers | 7.182 | 10.273 | 3.091 | 3.606 ![]() |
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8 | Raiders | 14.273 | 17.273 | 3.000 | -0.869 ![]() |
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9 | Broncos | 1.727 | 4.546 | 2.818 | -4.041 ![]() |
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10 | Buccaneers | 23.909 | 26.727 | 2.818 | -0.758 ![]() |
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11 | Falcons | 15.455 | 17.636 | 2.182 | 3.293 ![]() |
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12 | Packers | 5.364 | 7.273 | 1.909 | 0.151 ![]() |
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13 | Rams | 19.909 | 21.636 | 1.727 | 8.798 ![]() |
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14 | Seahawks | 6.182 | 7.273 | 1.091 | -0.606 ![]() |
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15 | Bengals | 13.455 | 14.364 | 0.909 | -2.061 ![]() |
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16 | Patriots | 1.273 | 2.182 | 0.909 | -6.131 ![]() |
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17 | Titans | 25.364 | 26.273 | 0.909 | 1.162 ![]() |
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18 | Eagles | 5.273 | 5.364 | 0.091 | 5.495 ![]() |
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19 | Jets | 19.000 | 19.000 | 0.000 | -0.384 ![]() |
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20 | Panthers | 9.364 | 8.636 | -0.727 | -2.384 ![]() |
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21 | Jaguars | 29.818 | 29.000 | -0.818 | -9.424 ![]() |
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22 | Colts | 21.818 | 20.727 | -1.091 | 1.879 ![]() |
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23 | Bears | 31.455 | 29.000 | -2.455 | 0.202 ![]() |
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24 | Saints | 28.727 | 26.091 | -2.636 | -2.808 ![]() |
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25 | Browns | 31.273 | 28.546 | -2.727 | -2.222 ![]() |
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26 | Lions | 23.455 | 20.636 | -2.818 | 1.455 ![]() |
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27 | Cardinals | 12.091 | 8.546 | -3.545 | -2.242 ![]() |
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28 | Chiefs | 9.636 | 5.364 | -4.273 | -2.162 ![]() |
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29 | Dolphins | 24.727 | 20.182 | -4.546 | -5.011 ![]() |
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30 | 49ers | 27.909 | 23.182 | -4.727 | 4.717 ![]() |
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31 | Chargers | 23.546 | 16.909 | -6.636 | 0.930 ![]() |
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32 | Bills | 22.364 | 13.546 | -8.818 | -0.192 ![]() |