SB Nation

John Crean | September 29, 2016

2016 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 4

Are Eagles, Vikings the class of the NFC?

Before the season even started, many were laughing at the prospects of Carson Wentz leading the Eagles to any sort of success. When Teddy Bridgewater's knee exploded, many were writing eulogies about the 2016 Vikings season. Who's laughing now? Where are those obituaries?

There's a narrative emerging in the national media: are the Eagles for real? The very question introduces some doubt in their 3-0 start. The conventional wisdom being, "there's no way they can be this good. Carson Wentz? Really?"

Conversely, heading into the season, people were very high on the Vikings this year; and then Teddy Bridgewater went down. Eulogies were written. Thinkpieces pondering how the Vikings could possibly turn the season around (when it hadn't even started yet). Then the season started, and the Vikings showed they weren't dead. Their defense is rivaling the vaunted Denver Broncos'. And now without their two key offensive players in Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson, nobody is sweating.

Author's Note: I missed getting this done last week because it was crunch time at work. So all the comparisons and "differences" columns will be referencing the Week 2 rankings.

Notable Quotes

The Chargers are well on their way to being the league’s best 5–11 team, which comes with the likely prize package of a top-10 pick and a new coach. And if the Chargers’ bid on their own showcase comes within $100 of being correct, they also win the other showcase: a new stadium, a jet ski and a DVD collection of Alec Baldwin movies.

The Chargers front office announced today that they will be preemptively injuring their star players. Sources close to the team speculate that a shipment of baseball bats and ski masks might have something to do with their plan. Meanwhile, the players union has sent bubble wrap and duct tape to cushion the legs, feet, and ankles of every Chargers player on the roster. When asked if something in the San Diego water supply was causing these injuries, government officials were quoted as saying, "no Charge no".

Evaluating this Chargers' defense is beyond difficult. Both of San Diego's losses felt like that girl who matches you on Bumble but never sends you a follow-up message. Then there was the blowout win against the Jags, which seemed like an easy stroll by a dominant D -- but we know that's not the case. The unit was viable on Sunday. Unfortunately, the absence of Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead made it harder to pull off the road win.

Division Averages

Before we get to looking at where all the teams rank, let's take look at the bigger picture in the NFL. This table takes the average rankings for each team, then averages the rankings of each team in the division. It's used as a way of showing where the tougher and weaker divisions lie each week.

Division Week 2 Average Week 4 Average Difference
AFC West 13.050 11.659 1.391
NFC East 19.063 15.250 3.813
AFC East 15.963 15.284 0.679
AFC North 14.313 15.750 -1.437
NFC North 14.838 15.818 -0.980
NFC West 15.550 15.841 -0.291
NFC South 18.438 19.568 -1.130
AFC South 20.788 22.830 -2.042

Stock Rising

Team Week 2 Average Week 4 Average Difference
PHI 18.480 5.318 13.162
ATL 25.444 16.545 8.899
DAL 21.424 14.500 6.924
STL 27.646 20.773 6.873
MIN 10.955 4.682 6.273

Atlanta's nearly-9-point rise would certainly be noteworthy on its own, if it wasn't for Philadelphia's 13 point rise.

Stock Falling

Team Week 2 Average Week 4 Average Difference
TB 17.879 25.318 -7.439
JAX 23.030 29.409 -6.379
CIN 7.848 13.909 -6.061
DET 16.136 22.045 -5.909
PIT 3.924 8.727 -4.803

Subjective Average

We'll start off with the Subjective Average. These rankings are the ones that has actual people ranking the teams based on their gut feelings. You'll see in a moment that some of these sites may even just throw darts at a board, or have a chicken pecking at numbers.

I then take all those rankings and average them together, then sort the table based on the average ranking. This method evens out the peaks and valleys and allows us to get a more reliable "big picture" view of the perception of where teams rank in the league.

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit AP Average Change in Value
1 Patriots 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1.273 -0.091 Falling
2 Broncos 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 1.727 1.637 Rising
3 Vikings 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3.091 7.818 Rising
4 Eagles 7 5 5 4 4 6 6 4 5 8 4 5.273 15.909 Rising
5 Packers 6 4 4 5 7 5 4 5 9 5 5 5.364 -1.455 Falling
6 Seahawks 3 6 7 7 9 8 5 7 4 6 6 6.182 -1.546 Falling
7 Steelers 9 7 6 6 6 9 7 6 12 4 7 7.182 -3.000 Falling
8 Ravens 10 8 8 9 8 7 10 8 6 12 8 8.546 5.545 Rising
9 Panthers 8 13 10 8 10 4 11 12 10 7 10 9.364 -3.909 Falling
10 Chiefs 12 11 12 13 5 11 8 9 7 9 9 9.636 0.364 Rising
11 Cardinals 5 9 14 12 15 16 12 13 14 10 13 12.091 -4.455 Falling
12 Cowboys 11 10 9 19 12 12 9 14 16 16 14 12.909 6.273 Rising
13 Texans 16 17 11 10 14 10 13 11 18 13 12 13.182 -2.182 Falling
14 Bengals 13 15 15 14 11 17 14 15 8 11 15 13.455 -7.091 Falling
15 Raiders 14 14 13 15 13 15 15 17 11 14 16 14.273 -3.364 Falling
16 Giants 15 16 16 16 16 14 16 10 13 15 11 14.364 -0.546 Falling
17 Falcons 18 12 17 11 17 13 17 16 15 17 17 15.455 10.545 Rising
18 Jets 19 26 19 17 18 18 18 19 19 18 18 19.000 -2.273 Falling
19 Rams 24 18 18 18 19 19 21 18 22 23 19 19.909 11.273 Rising
20 Redskins 20 22 22 23 21 24 22 22 17 22 20 21.364 -2.455 Falling
21 Colts 23 19 20 21 22 23 24 23 24 19 22 21.818 -0.182 Falling
22 Bills 22 23 24 25 20 25 19 27 20 20 21 22.364 1.818 Rising
23 Lions 17 27 27 20 27 27 20 21 27 21 24 23.455 -5.182 Falling
24 Chargers 21 20 21 26 23 28 25 24 23 25 23 23.546 3.909 Rising
25 Buccaneers 28 25 25 22 24 21 23 20 26 24 25 23.909 -7.818 Falling
26 Dolphins 25 24 23 27 25 20 27 28 21 26 26 24.727 -2.636 Falling
27 Titans 26 21 28 24 26 22 26 25 25 29 27 25.364 3.000 Rising
28 49ers 30 28 26 28 30 26 28 26 30 27 28 27.909 -1.909 Falling
29 Saints 27 30 29 29 28 29 29 29 29 28 29 28.727 -4.454 Falling
30 Jaguars 29 29 31 30 31 30 30 30 28 30 30 29.818 -11.091 Falling
31 Browns 32 31 32 32 29 31 31 32 31 32 31 31.273 0.454 Rising
32 Bears 31 32 30 31 32 32 32 31 32 31 32 31.455 -2.909 Falling

Observations:

  • I can't believe this: it's Week 3 and the Browns aren't the unanimous pick for worst team in the league. Though Chicago has looked pretty bad.
  • Unfortunate that the Jaguars have nothing to show for all the preseason hype around them, which has led to their 11-spot drop.
  • Conversely, two weeks ago the Rams were almost a lock for the worst team in the league; not so much anymore.
  • Patriots and Broncos duking it out for first, with the Patriots getting the edge. I mean, it's hard to argue with that given how dominant they've been without Brady. But I wonder how much has been courtesy of their competition not being as strong as once thought heading into the season.
  • Sharp divide between the Falcons and the Jets.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Put simply, Standard Deviation is a tool in statistics to measure how much variance there is in a set of numbers. To put more simply: I use it to look at who's ranked the most- and least-consistently. In Standard Deviation, the lower the number, the more consistent the values in the set.

For our purposes, this means the lower the Standard Deviation, the more consistent the rankings. The opposite is true too: the higher the number, the less consistent the rankings.

This table is sorted by most-consistently ranked to least-consistently ranked.

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit AP STD DEV Change in Value
1 Vikings 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0.288 -2.141 Falling
2 Broncos 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 0.445 -1.612 Falling
3 Patriots 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 0.445 0.059 Rising
4 Bears 31 32 30 31 32 32 32 31 32 31 32 0.656 -0.960 Falling
5 Saints 27 30 29 29 28 29 29 29 29 28 29 0.750 -0.670 Falling
6 Jaguars 29 29 31 30 31 30 30 30 28 30 30 0.833 -1.729 Falling
7 Browns 32 31 32 32 29 31 31 32 31 32 31 0.862 0.417 Rising
8 Eagles 7 5 5 4 4 6 6 4 5 8 4 1.286 -1.157 Falling
9 Packers 6 4 4 5 7 5 4 5 9 5 5 1.432 -0.543 Falling
10 49ers 30 28 26 28 30 26 28 26 30 27 28 1.505 -1.192 Falling
11 Raiders 14 14 13 15 13 15 15 17 11 14 16 1.543 0.303 Rising
12 Ravens 10 8 8 9 8 7 10 8 6 12 8 1.559 -0.005 Falling
13 Seahawks 3 6 7 7 9 8 5 7 4 6 6 1.641 -0.182 Falling
14 Colts 23 19 20 21 22 23 24 23 24 19 22 1.749 -1.851 Falling
15 Redskins 20 22 22 23 21 24 22 22 17 22 20 1.772 -1.375 Falling
16 Steelers 9 7 6 6 6 9 7 6 12 4 7 2.037 0.845 Rising
17 Giants 15 16 16 16 16 14 16 10 13 15 11 2.057 -0.733 Falling
18 Rams 24 18 18 18 19 19 21 18 22 23 19 2.109 1.534 Rising
19 Buccaneers 28 25 25 22 24 21 23 20 26 24 25 2.193 -1.257 Falling
20 Titans 26 21 28 24 26 22 26 25 25 29 27 2.267 0.547 Rising
21 Falcons 18 12 17 11 17 13 17 16 15 17 17 2.271 -0.141 Falling
22 Chargers 21 20 21 26 23 28 25 24 23 25 23 2.271 0.494 Rising
23 Jets 19 26 19 17 18 18 18 19 19 18 18 2.296 -0.599 Falling
24 Chiefs 12 11 12 13 5 11 8 9 7 9 9 2.307 1.262 Rising
25 Panthers 8 13 10 8 10 4 11 12 10 7 10 2.385 1.012 Rising
26 Dolphins 25 24 23 27 25 20 27 28 21 26 26 2.416 -0.981 Falling
27 Bengals 13 15 15 14 11 17 14 15 8 11 15 2.426 0.506 Rising
28 Bills 22 23 24 25 20 25 19 27 20 20 21 2.496 -0.884 Falling
29 Texans 16 17 11 10 14 10 13 11 18 13 12 2.657 0.568 Rising
30 Cardinals 5 9 14 12 15 16 12 13 14 10 13 2.968 1.536 Rising
31 Cowboys 11 10 9 19 12 12 9 14 16 16 14 3.059 -0.294 Falling
32 Lions 17 27 27 20 27 27 20 21 27 21 24 3.577 1.051 Rising

Observations:

  • Patriots, Broncos, and Vikings pretty much the consensus 1-2-3 right now.
  • The bottom-4 is also pretty much figured out.
  • SB Nation looks to be the most off "the norm."

Objective Average

I call these rankings the "Objective" rankings because unlike the rankings above, these are rankings based on statistical models of some sort. I use the term "Objective" loosely here because there is still some inherent bias in how the various models are constructed. Each ranking site has their own criteria in what they feel is success in the NFL.

All that said, these rankings are more objective as they remove perception and bias and produce rankings based on how well teams actually play, not how they're perceived to play.

Objective
FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI Average Change in Value
1 Patriots 3 1 1 1 8 2 2 2 1 2 1 2.182 6.040 Rising
2 Broncos 10 5 3 2 16 4 4 1 2 1 2 4.546 5.676 Rising
3 Chiefs 2 4 9 7 2 8 5 4 6 4 8 5.364 2.525 Rising
4 Eagles 6 11 10 3 1 1 1 5 4 10 7 5.364 10.414 Rising
5 Vikings 9 9 2 8 21 3 3 3 3 3 5 6.273 4.727 Rising
6 Packers 5 6 4 12 6 7 15 7 7 8 3 7.273 -1.606 Falling
7 Seahawks 1 3 5 14 7 12 11 8 5 5 9 7.273 -0.940 Falling
8 Cardinals 4 2 7 17 11 10 7 12 11 9 4 8.546 -2.213 Falling
9 Panthers 11 7 8 18 3 5 14 9 8 6 6 8.636 -1.525 Falling
10 Steelers 8 8 6 6 12 16 24 6 10 7 10 10.273 -6.606 Falling
11 Ravens 7 14 11 5 13 11 18 13 9 14 21 12.364 1.747 Rising
12 Bills 18 12 14 13 10 13 12 15 14 15 13 13.546 2.010 Rising
13 Bengals 12 10 12 9 28 21 21 10 13 11 11 14.364 -5.031 Falling
14 Cowboys 13 21 13 15 5 28 6 20 18 19 19 16.091 7.576 Rising
15 Texans 28 15 16 4 25 19 22 11 12 12 17 16.455 -3.233 Falling
16 Chargers 14 13 18 30 15 9 8 21 20 26 12 16.909 2.980 Rising
17 Raiders 15 16 15 26 4 25 13 18 21 23 14 17.273 -2.495 Falling
18 Falcons 17 19 17 25 20 24 10 16 15 16 15 17.636 7.253 Rising
19 Jets 26 18 19 11 22 20 29 14 19 13 18 19.000 -1.889 Falling
20 Dolphins 27 17 21 19 23 6 17 22 22 25 23 20.182 2.374 Rising
21 Giants 19 24 23 16 18 30 9 19 25 20 20 20.273 -3.940 Falling
22 Lions 16 22 25 28 24 15 16 23 17 17 24 20.636 -6.636 Falling
23 Colts 22 20 20 29 9 17 27 24 23 21 16 20.727 -2.060 Falling
24 Rams 20 23 22 10 27 26 28 17 16 18 31 21.636 2.475 Rising
25 49ers 30 25 24 21 14 18 20 26 24 24 29 23.182 -6.626 Falling
26 Saints 21 26 30 32 19 31 19 30 30 27 22 26.091 -1.647 Falling
27 Titans 24 31 31 27 17 22 23 28 28 32 26 26.273 1.838 Rising
28 Redskins 25 29 28 20 31 32 25 25 26 22 27 26.364 -2.031 Falling
29 Buccaneers 23 28 26 23 26 29 32 27 27 28 25 26.727 -7.060 Falling
30 Browns 32 32 32 24 29 14 26 32 31 30 32 28.546 2.676 Rising
31 Bears 31 30 29 22 32 27 31 29 29 29 30 29.000 -3.111 Falling
32 Jaguars 29 27 27 31 30 23 30 31 32 31 28 29.000 -1.667 Falling

Observations:

  • We pretty much have the full slate of "objective" rankings now.
  • Wow, Chiefs quietly climbing the board. I say quietly because even though they were a popular pick to win the AFC West this year, the nation as a whole has stopped giving them much attention.
  • Interesting cluster of NFC teams from 4-9.
  • Kind of surprised to see the Chargers so high in a few of these rankings.
  • Wow, is Aikman high on the Raiders Cowboys, but way down on the Vikings and Bengals.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI STD DEV Change in Value
1 Patriots 3 1 1 1 8 2 2 2 1 2 1 1.946 -7.701 Falling
2 Bills 18 12 14 13 10 13 12 15 14 15 13 1.971 -1.088 Falling
3 Chiefs 2 4 9 7 2 8 5 4 6 4 8 2.307 -2.823 Falling
4 Jaguars 29 27 27 31 30 23 30 31 32 31 28 2.486 -0.303 Falling
5 Buccaneers 23 28 26 23 26 29 32 27 27 28 25 2.490 -2.652 Falling
6 Bears 31 30 29 22 32 27 31 29 29 29 30 2.558 -1.226 Falling
7 Packers 5 6 4 12 6 7 15 7 7 8 3 3.305 0.948 Rising
8 Redskins 25 29 28 20 31 32 25 25 26 22 27 3.419 -5.092 Falling
9 Eagles 6 11 10 3 1 1 1 5 4 10 7 3.600 -3.654 Falling
10 Seahawks 1 3 5 14 7 12 11 8 5 5 9 3.792 -2.654 Falling
11 Falcons 17 19 17 25 20 24 10 16 15 16 15 4.051 1.166 Rising
12 Panthers 11 7 8 18 3 5 14 9 8 6 6 4.096 -0.158 Falling
13 Cardinals 4 2 7 17 11 10 7 12 11 9 4 4.120 0.958 Rising
14 Titans 24 31 31 27 17 22 23 28 28 32 26 4.308 -3.017 Falling
15 Lions 16 22 25 28 24 15 16 23 17 17 24 4.312 -0.980 Falling
16 Broncos 10 5 3 2 16 4 4 1 2 1 2 4.356 -5.198 Falling
17 Ravens 7 14 11 5 13 11 18 13 9 14 21 4.375 0.561 Rising
18 49ers 30 25 24 21 14 18 20 26 24 24 29 4.468 -3.780 Falling
19 Saints 21 26 30 32 19 31 19 30 30 27 22 4.757 1.453 Rising
20 Jets 26 18 19 11 22 20 29 14 19 13 18 5.099 0.518 Rising
21 Giants 19 24 23 16 18 30 9 19 25 20 20 5.154 0.210 Rising
22 Steelers 8 8 6 6 12 16 24 6 10 7 10 5.224 2.435 Rising
23 Colts 22 20 20 29 9 17 27 24 23 21 16 5.224 0.955 Rising
24 Browns 32 32 32 24 29 14 26 32 31 30 32 5.281 4.054 Rising
25 Vikings 9 9 2 8 21 3 3 3 3 3 5 5.293 -0.020 Falling
26 Dolphins 27 17 21 19 23 6 17 22 22 25 23 5.357 0.256 Rising
27 Bengals 12 10 12 9 28 21 21 10 13 11 11 5.851 1.935 Rising
28 Rams 20 23 22 10 27 26 28 17 16 18 31 5.897 -1.827 Falling
29 Raiders 15 16 15 26 4 25 13 18 21 23 14 6.032 2.511 Rising
30 Cowboys 13 21 13 15 5 28 6 20 18 19 19 6.374 0.958 Rising
31 Texans 28 15 16 4 25 19 22 11 12 12 17 6.542 2.719 Rising
32 Chargers 14 13 18 30 15 9 8 21 20 26 12 6.571 1.572 Rising

Observations:

  • Huh, so the Chargers are the least consistently-ranked team; just barely edging out the Texans.
  • Take the Vikings having a high deviation with a grain of salt, since they're very consistently-ranked other than Aikman.

Overall Average

Now let's compare the two sets of data. We'll start with the "Overall Average" chart. This takes the Subjective Average and the Objective Average, and then averages those two numbers. This way it gives equal weight to both averages so that even though Subjective Average has a larger sample size, it doesn't drown out the Objective Average.

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Average Change in Value
1 Patriots 1.273 2.182 1.727 2.975 Rising
2 Broncos 1.727 4.546 3.136 3.657 Rising
3 Vikings 3.091 6.273 4.682 6.273 Rising
4 Eagles 5.273 5.364 5.318 13.162 Rising
5 Packers 5.364 7.273 6.318 -1.530 Falling
6 Seahawks 6.182 7.273 6.727 -1.242 Falling
7 Chiefs 9.636 5.364 7.500 1.444 Rising
8 Steelers 7.182 10.273 8.727 -4.803 Falling
9 Panthers 9.364 8.636 9.000 -2.717 Falling
10 Cardinals 12.091 8.546 10.318 -3.333 Falling
11 Ravens 8.546 12.364 10.455 3.646 Rising
12 Bengals 13.455 14.364 13.909 -6.061 Falling
13 Cowboys 12.909 16.091 14.500 6.924 Rising
14 Texans 13.182 16.455 14.818 -2.707 Falling
15 Raiders 14.273 17.273 15.773 -2.930 Falling
16 Falcons 15.455 17.636 16.545 8.899 Rising
17 Giants 14.364 20.273 17.318 -2.242 Falling
18 Bills 22.364 13.546 17.955 1.914 Rising
19 Jets 19.000 19.000 19.000 -2.081 Falling
20 Chargers 23.546 16.909 20.227 3.445 Rising
21 Rams 19.909 21.636 20.773 6.873 Rising
22 Colts 21.818 20.727 21.273 -1.121 Falling
23 Lions 23.455 20.636 22.045 -5.909 Falling
24 Dolphins 24.727 20.182 22.455 -0.132 Falling
25 Redskins 21.364 26.364 23.864 -2.243 Falling
26 Buccaneers 23.909 26.727 25.318 -7.439 Falling
27 49ers 27.909 23.182 25.545 -4.267 Falling
28 Titans 25.364 26.273 25.818 2.419 Rising
29 Saints 28.727 26.091 27.409 -3.050 Falling
30 Jaguars 29.818 29.000 29.409 -6.379 Falling
31 Browns 31.273 28.546 29.909 1.566 Rising
32 Bears 31.455 29.000 30.227 -3.010 Falling

Observations:

  • Patriots, Broncos, and Vikings all fairly evenly-spaced apart.
  • Eagles a consensus top-5 team in the league right now. Are they for real? It sure seems that way.
  • Seems to be a nice cluster of the top 11 teams, with a slight drop-off when going to the Bengals.
  • With a few exceptions near the top, NFC and AFC teams seem pretty evenly distributed.

Overall Standard Deviation

The Overall Standard Deviation does not average anything out, it just takes the Standard Deviation across all the rankings. Yes this will even things out slightly, but it goes to show which teams have consensus across the board.

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg STD DEV Change in Value
1 Patriots 1.273 2.182 1.483 -5.881 Falling
2 Jaguars 29.818 29.000 1.899 -3.145 Falling
3 Bears 31.455 29.000 2.235 -0.868 Falling
4 Eagles 5.273 5.364 2.703 -3.144 Falling
5 Packers 5.364 7.273 2.720 0.394 Rising
6 Buccaneers 23.909 26.727 2.737 -1.912 Falling
7 Seahawks 6.182 7.273 2.972 -1.637 Falling
8 Chiefs 9.636 5.364 3.144 -0.537 Falling
9 Panthers 9.364 8.636 3.371 0.231 Rising
10 Broncos 1.727 4.546 3.402 -4.017 Falling
11 Falcons 15.455 17.636 3.461 0.768 Rising
12 Titans 25.364 26.273 3.472 -1.606 Falling
13 Saints 28.727 26.091 3.651 1.196 Rising
14 Redskins 21.364 26.364 3.696 -3.037 Falling
15 Ravens 8.546 12.364 3.799 0.990 Rising
16 Colts 21.818 20.727 3.933 -0.252 Falling
17 Jets 19.000 19.000 3.954 0.200 Rising
18 Cardinals 12.091 8.546 4.004 1.545 Rising
19 Browns 31.273 28.546 4.022 3.100 Rising
20 Vikings 3.091 6.273 4.072 0.079 Rising
21 49ers 27.909 23.182 4.087 -3.442 Falling
22 Lions 23.455 20.636 4.205 -0.337 Falling
23 Steelers 7.182 10.273 4.255 2.170 Rising
24 Bengals 13.455 14.364 4.502 1.169 Rising
25 Rams 19.909 21.636 4.512 -1.765 Falling
26 Raiders 14.273 17.273 4.651 1.469 Rising
27 Dolphins 24.727 20.182 4.736 0.480 Rising
28 Giants 14.364 20.273 4.912 0.807 Rising
29 Bills 22.364 13.546 4.950 -0.427 Falling
30 Cowboys 12.909 16.091 5.246 0.310 Rising
31 Texans 13.182 16.455 5.254 2.060 Rising
32 Chargers 23.546 16.909 5.931 0.721 Rising

Observations:

  • Chargers remain at the bottom of this list.
  • It's no surprise that the more consistently-ranked teams are also at the top and bottom of the rankings.

Difference in Averages

This compares the Subjective average ranking with the Objective average ranking. This tells us just how far off people are from the formulas. A positive number means people think they will be or are better than the stats indicate, a negative number means the math thinks they're better than what people think. The closer to 0 this number is, the more in agreement the Subjective and Objective rankings are.

Generally speaking, the Subjective Rankings tend to be more reactionary to a team's performance than the mathematical models are. You'll often end up with major peaks and valleys for a team in the Subjective rankings, where the Objective rankings are more steady.

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Diff. in Avg Change in Value
1 Giants 14.364 20.273 5.909 3.394 Rising
2 Redskins 21.364 26.364 5.000 -0.424 Rising
3 Ravens 8.546 12.364 3.818 3.798 Rising
4 Texans 13.182 16.455 3.273 1.051 Rising
5 Vikings 3.091 6.273 3.182 3.091 Rising
6 Cowboys 12.909 16.091 3.182 -1.303 Rising
7 Steelers 7.182 10.273 3.091 3.606 Rising
8 Raiders 14.273 17.273 3.000 -0.869 Rising
9 Broncos 1.727 4.546 2.818 -4.041 Rising
10 Buccaneers 23.909 26.727 2.818 -0.758 Rising
11 Falcons 15.455 17.636 2.182 3.293 Rising
12 Packers 5.364 7.273 1.909 0.151 Rising
13 Rams 19.909 21.636 1.727 8.798 Rising
14 Seahawks 6.182 7.273 1.091 -0.606 Rising
15 Bengals 13.455 14.364 0.909 -2.061 Rising
16 Patriots 1.273 2.182 0.909 -6.131 Rising
17 Titans 25.364 26.273 0.909 1.162 Rising
18 Eagles 5.273 5.364 0.091 5.495 Rising
19 Jets 19.000 19.000 0.000 -0.384 Rising
20 Panthers 9.364 8.636 -0.727 -2.384 Rising
21 Jaguars 29.818 29.000 -0.818 -9.424 Rising
22 Colts 21.818 20.727 -1.091 1.879 Rising
23 Bears 31.455 29.000 -2.455 0.202 Rising
24 Saints 28.727 26.091 -2.636 -2.808 Rising
25 Browns 31.273 28.546 -2.727 -2.222 Rising
26 Lions 23.455 20.636 -2.818 1.455 Rising
27 Cardinals 12.091 8.546 -3.545 -2.242 Rising
28 Chiefs 9.636 5.364 -4.273 -2.162 Rising
29 Dolphins 24.727 20.182 -4.546 -5.011 Rising
30 49ers 27.909 23.182 -4.727 4.717 Rising
31 Chargers 23.546 16.909 -6.636 0.930 Rising
32 Bills 22.364 13.546 -8.818 -0.192 Rising

Observations:

  • So not only are the Chargers one of the more inconsistently-ranked teams, but they're also significantly under-ranked when it comes to pundit rankings. Still though, their stats indicate they're an "average" team.
  • Wow the Bills are way under-ranked. I wonder how much that loss to the Jets sill lives in peoples minds.
  • Neat, the Jets are exactly where they should be.
  • Giants and Redskins, being given too much credit?

Sources

Subjective Objective
ESPN Football Outsiders
Fox Team Rankings
CBS Sagarin
USA Today BeatGraphs
Sports Illustrated Aikman Efficiency
ProFootballTalk Pro Football Reference
NFL.com Cold Hard Football Facts
SportingNews Massey
SB Nation ARGH
Reddit Five Thirty Eight
Associated Press Football Power Index

About the Author

Follow @creanium

Loading comments...