2016 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 2

Everything we need to know about the 2016 NFL season, we learned in Week 1. That's right, it's National Jump-to-Conclusions Week!

This is a fun period in the NFL season when it comes to rankings. The rankings are so volatile because after just one game, we have such a small sample size that nobody knows what to think yet.

As such, a lot of this week's punditry has been focused on reinforcing the preconceived notions that everyone had heading into the season. The Patriots are good. The Browns are bad. You get the gist.

Notable Quotes

This Keenan Allen news sucks so bad, who wants to write about it? Last week, we pontificated on the football gods, and whether the Chargers were on their radar. Welp. The blown 21-point lead, Allen going down and an overtime loss makes one think Philip Rivers is the cursed Medusa from the old "Clash of the Titans." I want him to be the Harry Hamlin (no, not "L.A. Law" Harry Hamlin; shield-bearing badass Harry Hamlin). Let's hope Travis Benjamin can be more than a home-run hitter and perfect the full route tree.

The Chargers managed to start and end their 2016 season in the same day. Quite a feat for a team that typically lingers for a bit before shitting the bed. Defeat from the jaws of victory, conservative play calling while in the lead, prevent defense, loss of a star player, no halftime adjustments, missed field goal, OT loss. This game had everything die hard Chargers fans have come to expect from this quality organization. Gutless coaching, years and years of spineless, yellow, pussy, candy ass, disgraceful coaching. Next loss - Jacksonville.

Rather than watch the remaining 15 games, Chargers fans, might I suggest queuing up a loop of Sunday’s first half instead? Let that become your reality. Blowing a 21-point advantage to lose in overtime was one thing; seeing Keenan Allen fall with a season-ending knee injury was another. It could be a long four months.​

Division Averages

Before we get to looking at where all the teams rank, let's take look at the bigger picture in the NFL. This table takes the average rankings for each team, then averages the rankings of each team in the division. It's used as a way of showing where the tougher and weaker divisions lie each week.

Stock Rising

Stock Falling

Subjective Average

We'll start off with the Subjective Average. These rankings are the ones that has actual people ranking the teams based on their gut feelings. You'll see in a moment that some of these sites may even just throw darts at a board, or have a chicken pecking at numbers.

I then take all those rankings and average them together, then sort the table based on the average ranking. This method evens out the peaks and valleys and allows us to get a more reliable "big picture" view of the perception of where teams rank in the league.

		Subjective
		ESPN	Fox	CBS	USA	SI	PFT	NFL	SN	SBN	Reddit	AP		Average		Change in Value
1	Patriots	2	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1		1.182		2.118
2	Broncos	8	6	5	4	2	1	2	3	2	2	2		3.364		3.136
3	Packers	1	3	2	3	7	7	3	2	5	6	4		3.909		0.991
4	Steelers	4	4	6	2	3	5	4	5	6	4	3		4.182		1.718
5	Seahawks	3	2	4	9	6	4	5	4	3	5	6		4.636		-1.436
6	Panthers	6	7	7	5	5	3	6	6	7	3	5		5.455		-2.655
7	Bengals	9	5	3	8	4	8	8	7	4	7	7		6.364		0.836
8	Cardinals	5	8	9	6	9	6	7	8	10	8	8		7.636		-4.936
9	Chiefs	11	11	10	12	10	9	9	9	11	9	9		10.000		-0.700
10	Vikings	12	10	11	7	16	10	10	14	8	12	10		10.909		-0.209
11	Raiders	10	9	12	10	11	11	12	13	9	11	12		10.909		0.891
12	Texans	7	12	13	11	8	12	11	11	15	10	11		11.000		1.800
13	Giants	16	13	8	18	12	16	15	10	16	14	14		13.818		3.382
14	Ravens	13	17	15	13	14	13	16	12	13	16	13		14.091		2.709
15	Buccaneers	14	14	23	14	13	15	13	16	23	17	15		16.091		5.609
16	Jets	15	22	21	15	15	20	14	15	18	13	16		16.727		-1.627
17	Lions	22	21	16	16	17	21	17	17	22	15	17		18.273		4.327
18	Jaguars	23	18	17	17	19	18	18	21	14	23	18		18.727		-1.127
19	Redskins	17	20	19	20	23	14	21	20	12	21	21		18.909		-5.409
20	Cowboys	18	15	14	25	21	17	19	19	17	22	24		19.182		-1.482
21	Eagles	20	19	25	22	20	26	23	18	21	20	19		21.182		6.418
22	Colts	19	16	18	19	24	24	25	24	28	18	23		21.636		-3.536
23	Dolphins	28	24	20	21	18	19	20	28	20	25	20		22.091		0.809
24	Bills	27	26	27	28	22	29	22	22	19	19	25		24.182		-4.682
25	Saints	24	25	26	23	25	23	27	23	25	24	22		24.273		-0.373
26	49ers	30	28	22	24	29	22	24	25	29	27	26		26.000		4.900
27	Falcons	21	23	29	29	27	25	28	27	24	26	27		26.000		-3.700
28	Chargers	25	27	24	26	28	30	29	29	27	29	28		27.455		-0.055
29	Titans	26	30	30	27	30	28	26	30	26	30	29		28.364		-1.164
30	Bears	29	29	28	30	26	27	30	26	31	28	30		28.546		-1.946
31	Rams	31	32	31	31	32	31	31	32	30	31	31		31.182		-4.482
32	Browns	32	31	32	32	31	32	32	31	32	32	32		31.727		-0.127

Subjective Standard Deviation

Put simply, Standard Deviation is a tool in statistics to measure how much variance there is in a set of numbers. To put more simply: I use it to look at who's ranked the most- and least-consistently. In Standard Deviation, the lower the number, the more consistent the values in the set.

For our purposes, this means the lower the Standard Deviation, the more consistent the rankings. The opposite is true too: the higher the number, the less consistent the rankings.

This table is sorted by most-consistently ranked to least-consistently ranked.

		Subjective
		ESPN	Fox	CBS	USA	SI	PFT	NFL	SN	SBN	Reddit	AP		STD DEV		Change in Value
1	Patriots	2	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1		0.386		-0.883
2	Browns	32	31	32	32	31	32	32	31	32	32	32		0.445		-0.045
3	Rams	31	32	31	31	32	31	31	32	30	31	31		0.575		-1.794
4	Chiefs	11	11	10	12	10	9	9	9	11	9	9		1.045		-0.142
5	Steelers	4	4	6	2	3	5	4	5	6	4	3		1.192		-0.386
6	Raiders	10	9	12	10	11	11	12	13	9	11	12		1.240		-0.160
7	Panthers	6	7	7	5	5	3	6	6	7	3	5		1.373		-0.405
8	Saints	24	25	26	23	25	23	27	23	25	24	22		1.420		-0.552
9	Cardinals	5	8	9	6	9	6	7	8	10	8	8		1.432		0.014
10	Ravens	13	17	15	13	14	13	16	12	13	16	13		1.564		-0.426
11	Bears	29	29	28	30	26	27	30	26	31	28	30		1.616		-2.313
12	Titans	26	30	30	27	30	28	26	30	26	30	29		1.720		-1.680
13	Chargers	25	27	24	26	28	30	29	29	27	29	28		1.777		-0.987
14	Seahawks	3	2	4	9	6	4	5	4	3	5	6		1.823		0.574
15	Bengals	9	5	3	8	4	8	8	7	4	7	7		1.920		0.671
16	Packers	1	3	2	3	7	7	3	2	5	6	4		1.975		-0.191
17	Broncos	8	6	5	4	2	1	2	3	2	2	2		2.057		-0.483
18	Texans	7	12	13	11	8	12	11	11	15	10	11		2.089		0.256
19	Falcons	21	23	29	29	27	25	28	27	24	26	27		2.412		-0.752
20	Vikings	12	10	11	7	16	10	10	14	8	12	10		2.429		0.813
21	Eagles	20	19	25	22	20	26	23	18	21	20	19		2.443		0.384
22	Lions	22	21	16	16	17	21	17	17	22	15	17		2.526		0.194
23	Jaguars	23	18	17	17	19	18	18	21	14	23	18		2.562		-0.445
24	49ers	30	28	22	24	29	22	24	25	29	27	26		2.697		1.561
25	Giants	16	13	8	18	12	16	15	10	16	14	14		2.790		-1.788
26	Jets	15	22	21	15	15	20	14	15	18	13	16		2.895		-1.166
27	Redskins	17	20	19	20	23	14	21	20	12	21	21		3.147		0.275
28	Cowboys	18	15	14	25	21	17	19	19	17	22	24		3.353		-1.098
29	Bills	27	26	27	28	22	29	22	22	19	19	25		3.380		-0.448
30	Dolphins	28	24	20	21	18	19	20	28	20	25	20		3.397		0.929
31	Buccaneers	14	14	23	14	13	15	13	16	23	17	15		3.450		-0.601
32	Colts	19	16	18	19	24	24	25	24	28	18	23		3.600		0.010

Objective Average

I call these rankings the "Objective" rankings because unlike the rankings above, these are rankings based on statistical models of some sort. I use the term "Objective" loosely here because there is still some inherent bias in how the various models are constructed. Each ranking site has their own criteria in what they feel is success in the NFL.

All that said, these rankings are more objective as they remove perception and bias and produce rankings based on how well teams actually play, not how they're perceived to play.

		Objective
		FO	TR	SAG	Aikman	CHFF	Massey	ARGH	538	FPI		Average		Change in Value
1	Steelers	2	4	2	2	1	6	10	5	1		3.667		-3.667
2	Packers	6	5	4	3	10	7	6	8	2		5.667		-5.667
3	Cardinals	3	2	6	6	12	10	8	7	3		6.333		-6.333
4	Seahawks	1	3	3	7	23	5	3	2	10		6.333		-6.333
5	Panthers	8	7	5	4	18	9	5	3	5		7.111		-7.111
6	Chiefs	4	6	10	16	17	2	4	4	8		7.889		-7.889
7	Patriots	5	1	1	27	25	3	2	6	4		8.222		-8.222
8	Bengals	10	8	7	19	11	4	7	9	9		9.333		-9.333
9	Broncos	12	9	9	29	24	1	1	1	6		10.222		-10.222
10	Vikings	14	10	8	25	8	8	9	10	7		11.000		-11.000
11	Texans	23	11	12	15	9	12	11	12	14		13.222		-13.222
12	Lions	9	19	23	13	7	11	12	11	21		14.000		-14.000
13	Ravens	7	14	11	22	13	14	14	16	16		14.111		-14.111
14	Raiders	18	13	13	9	16	13	18	21	12		14.778		-14.778
15	Bills	15	12	17	11	22	18	15	15	15		15.556		-15.556
16	Eagles	19	25	21	5	4	16	13	14	25		15.778		-15.778
17	Giants	21	20	18	12	6	17	23	17	13		16.333		-16.333
18	49ers	25	21	20	1	2	20	20	18	22		16.556		-16.556
19	Jets	22	15	14	14	28	15	16	13	17		17.111		-17.111
20	Colts	17	18	15	20	26	24	17	20	11		18.667		-18.667
21	Buccaneers	16	22	19	10	15	22	28	25	20		19.667		-19.667
22	Chargers	11	16	26	17	19	19	24	28	19		19.889		-19.889
23	Dolphins	31	17	22	26	14	23	25	27	18		22.556		-22.556
24	Cowboys	13	26	16	21	29	29	27	26	26		23.667		-23.667
25	Rams	24	29	27	32	5	26	19	24	31		24.111		-24.111
26	Redskins	30	30	30	31	3	25	22	19	29		24.333		-24.333
27	Saints	20	24	29	24	20	28	29	23	23		24.444		-24.444
28	Falcons	27	27	28	23	21	27	21	22	28		24.889		-24.889
29	Bears	29	28	25	18	30	21	26	29	27		25.889		-25.889
30	Jaguars	28	23	24	30	27	30	30	30	24		27.333		-27.333
31	Titans	26	31	31	8	31	32	32	32	30		28.111		-28.111
32	Browns	32	32	32	28	32	31	31	31	32		31.222		-31.222

Objective Standard Deviation

		Objective
		FO	TR	SAG	Aikman	CHFF	Massey	ARGH	538	FPI		STD DEV		Change in Value
1	Browns	32	32	32	28	32	31	31	31	32		1.227		1.227
2	Packers	6	5	4	3	10	7	6	8	2		2.357		2.357
3	Jaguars	28	23	24	30	27	30	30	30	24		2.789		2.789
4	Steelers	2	4	2	2	1	6	10	5	1		2.789		2.789
5	Falcons	27	27	28	23	21	27	21	22	28		2.885		2.885
6	Bills	15	12	17	11	22	18	15	15	15		3.059		3.059
7	Cardinals	3	2	6	6	12	10	8	7	3		3.162		3.162
8	Saints	20	24	29	24	20	28	29	23	23		3.304		3.304
9	Raiders	18	13	13	9	16	13	18	21	12		3.521		3.521
10	Bears	29	28	25	18	30	21	26	29	27		3.784		3.784
11	Ravens	7	14	11	22	13	14	14	16	16		3.814		3.814
12	Texans	23	11	12	15	9	12	11	12	14		3.823		3.823
13	Bengals	10	8	7	19	11	4	7	9	9		3.916		3.916
14	Panthers	8	7	5	4	18	9	5	3	5		4.254		4.254
15	Colts	17	18	15	20	26	24	17	20	11		4.269		4.269
16	Jets	22	15	14	14	28	15	16	13	17		4.581		4.581
17	Giants	21	20	18	12	6	17	23	17	13		4.944		4.944
18	Chargers	11	16	26	17	19	19	24	28	19		4.999		4.999
19	Dolphins	31	17	22	26	14	23	25	27	18		5.101		5.101
20	Chiefs	4	6	10	16	17	2	4	4	8		5.130		5.130
21	Buccaneers	16	22	19	10	15	22	28	25	20		5.142		5.142
22	Lions	9	19	23	13	7	11	12	11	21		5.292		5.292
23	Vikings	14	10	8	25	8	8	9	10	7		5.313		5.313
24	Cowboys	13	26	16	21	29	29	27	26	26		5.416		5.416
25	Seahawks	1	3	3	7	23	5	3	2	10		6.446		6.446
26	Eagles	19	25	21	5	4	16	13	14	25		7.254		7.254
27	Titans	26	31	31	8	31	32	32	32	30		7.325		7.325
28	Rams	24	29	27	32	5	26	19	24	31		7.724		7.724
29	49ers	25	21	20	1	2	20	20	18	22		8.248		8.248
30	Redskins	30	30	30	31	3	25	22	19	29		8.511		8.511
31	Broncos	12	9	9	29	24	1	1	1	6		9.554		9.554
32	Patriots	5	1	1	27	25	3	2	6	4		9.647		9.647

Overall Average

Now let's compare the two sets of data. We'll start with the "Overall Average" chart. This takes the Subjective Average and the Objective Average, and then averages those two numbers. This way it gives equal weight to both averages so that even though Subjective Average has a larger sample size, it doesn't drown out the Objective Average.

		Subj vs Obj
		Subj Avg	Obj Avg		Average		Change in Value
1	Steelers	4.182	3.667		3.924		1.976
2	Patriots	1.182	8.222		4.702		-1.402
3	Packers	3.909	5.667		4.788		0.112
4	Seahawks	4.636	6.333		5.485		-2.285
5	Panthers	5.455	7.111		6.283		-3.483
6	Broncos	3.364	10.222		6.793		-0.293
7	Cardinals	7.636	6.333		6.985		-4.285
8	Bengals	6.364	9.333		7.848		-0.648
9	Chiefs	10.000	7.889		8.944		0.356
10	Vikings	10.909	11.000		10.955		-0.255
11	Texans	11.000	13.222		12.111		0.689
12	Raiders	10.909	14.778		12.843		-1.043
13	Ravens	14.091	14.111		14.101		2.699
14	Giants	13.818	16.333		15.076		2.124
15	Lions	18.273	14.000		16.136		6.464
16	Jets	16.727	17.111		16.919		-1.819
17	Buccaneers	16.091	19.667		17.879		3.821
18	Eagles	21.182	15.778		18.480		9.120
19	Bills	24.182	15.556		19.869		-0.369
20	Colts	21.636	18.667		20.152		-2.052
21	49ers	26.000	16.556		21.278		9.622
22	Cowboys	19.182	23.667		21.424		-3.724
23	Redskins	18.909	24.333		21.621		-8.121
24	Dolphins	22.091	22.556		22.323		0.577
25	Jaguars	18.727	27.333		23.030		-5.430
26	Chargers	27.455	19.889		23.672		3.728
27	Saints	24.273	24.444		24.359		-0.459
28	Falcons	26.000	24.889		25.444		-3.144
29	Bears	28.546	25.889		27.217		-0.617
30	Rams	31.182	24.111		27.646		-0.946
31	Titans	28.364	28.111		28.237		-1.037
32	Browns	31.727	31.222		31.475		0.125

Overall Standard Deviation

The Overall Standard Deviation does not average anything out, it just takes the Standard Deviation across all the rankings. Yes this will even things out slightly, but it goes to show which teams have consensus across the board.

		Subj vs Obj
		Subj Avg	Obj Avg		STD DEV		Change in Value
1	Browns	31.727	31.222		0.922		0.432
2	Steelers	4.182	3.667		2.085		0.507
3	Packers	3.909	5.667		2.326		0.160
4	Saints	24.273	24.444		2.455		0.483
5	Cardinals	7.636	6.333		2.459		1.041
6	Falcons	26.000	24.889		2.693		-0.471
7	Ravens	14.091	14.111		2.809		0.819
8	Bears	28.546	25.889		3.103		-0.826
9	Panthers	5.455	7.111		3.140		1.362
10	Raiders	10.909	14.778		3.182		1.782
11	Texans	11.000	13.222		3.194		1.361
12	Bengals	6.364	9.333		3.333		2.084
13	Chiefs	10.000	7.889		3.681		2.494
14	Jets	16.727	17.111		3.754		-0.307
15	Vikings	10.909	11.000		3.993		2.377
16	Giants	13.818	16.333		4.105		-0.473
17	Colts	21.636	18.667		4.185		0.595
18	Dolphins	22.091	22.556		4.256		1.788
19	Lions	18.273	14.000		4.542		2.210
20	Seahawks	4.636	6.333		4.609		3.360
21	Buccaneers	16.091	19.667		4.649		0.598
22	Cowboys	19.182	23.667		4.936		0.485
23	Jaguars	18.727	27.333		5.044		2.037
24	Titans	28.364	28.111		5.078		1.678
25	Chargers	27.455	19.889		5.210		2.446
26	Bills	24.182	15.556		5.377		1.549
27	Eagles	21.182	15.778		5.847		3.788
28	Rams	31.182	24.111		6.277		3.908
29	Redskins	18.909	24.333		6.733		3.861
30	Patriots	1.182	8.222		7.364		6.095
31	Broncos	3.364	10.222		7.419		4.879
32	49ers	26.000	16.556		7.529		6.393

Difference in Averages

This compares the Subjective average ranking with the Objective average ranking. This tells us just how far off people are from the formulas. A positive number means people think they will be or are better than the stats indicate, a negative number means the math thinks they're better than what people think. The closer to 0 this number is, the more in agreement the Subjective and Objective rankings are.

Generally speaking, the Subjective Rankings tend to be more reactionary to a team's performance than the mathematical models are. You'll often end up with major peaks and valleys for a team in the Subjective rankings, where the Objective rankings are more steady.

		Subj vs Obj
		Subj Avg	Obj Avg		Diff. in Avg		Change in Value
1	Jaguars	18.727	27.333		8.606		26.206
2	Patriots	1.182	8.222		7.040		10.340
3	Broncos	3.364	10.222		6.859		13.359
4	Redskins	18.909	24.333		5.424		18.924
5	Cowboys	19.182	23.667		4.485		22.185
6	Raiders	10.909	14.778		3.869		15.669
7	Buccaneers	16.091	19.667		3.576		25.276
8	Bengals	6.364	9.333		2.970		10.170
9	Giants	13.818	16.333		2.515		19.715
10	Texans	11.000	13.222		2.222		15.022
11	Packers	3.909	5.667		1.758		6.658
12	Seahawks	4.636	6.333		1.697		4.897
13	Panthers	5.455	7.111		1.657		4.457
14	Dolphins	22.091	22.556		0.465		23.365
15	Jets	16.727	17.111		0.384		15.484
16	Saints	24.273	24.444		0.172		24.072
17	Vikings	10.909	11.000		0.091		10.791
18	Ravens	14.091	14.111		0.020		16.820
19	Titans	28.364	28.111		-0.253		26.947
20	Browns	31.727	31.222		-0.505		31.095
21	Steelers	4.182	3.667		-0.515		5.385
22	Falcons	26.000	24.889		-1.111		21.189
23	Cardinals	7.636	6.333		-1.303		1.397
24	Chiefs	10.000	7.889		-2.111		7.189
25	Bears	28.546	25.889		-2.657		23.943
26	Colts	21.636	18.667		-2.970		15.130
27	Lions	18.273	14.000		-4.273		18.327
28	Eagles	21.182	15.778		-5.404		22.196
29	Rams	31.182	24.111		-7.071		19.629
30	Chargers	27.455	19.889		-7.566		19.834
31	Bills	24.182	15.556		-8.626		10.874
32	49ers	26.000	16.556		-9.444		21.456

Sources

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