SB Nation

John Crean | September 15, 2016

2016 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 2

Everything you know is wrong ... maybe.

Everything we need to know about the 2016 NFL season, we learned in Week 1. That's right, it's National Jump-to-Conclusions Week!

This is a fun period in the NFL season when it comes to rankings. The rankings are so volatile because after just one game, we have such a small sample size that nobody knows what to think yet.

As such, a lot of this week's punditry has been focused on reinforcing the preconceived notions that everyone had heading into the season. The Patriots are good. The Browns are bad. You get the gist.

Notable Quotes

This Keenan Allen news sucks so bad, who wants to write about it? Last week, we pontificated on the football gods, and whether the Chargers were on their radar. Welp. The blown 21-point lead, Allen going down and an overtime loss makes one think Philip Rivers is the cursed Medusa from the old "Clash of the Titans." I want him to be the Harry Hamlin (no, not "L.A. Law" Harry Hamlin; shield-bearing badass Harry Hamlin). Let's hope Travis Benjamin can be more than a home-run hitter and perfect the full route tree.

The Chargers managed to start and end their 2016 season in the same day. Quite a feat for a team that typically lingers for a bit before shitting the bed. Defeat from the jaws of victory, conservative play calling while in the lead, prevent defense, loss of a star player, no halftime adjustments, missed field goal, OT loss. This game had everything die hard Chargers fans have come to expect from this quality organization. Gutless coaching, years and years of spineless, yellow, pussy, candy ass, disgraceful coaching. Next loss - Jacksonville.

Rather than watch the remaining 15 games, Chargers fans, might I suggest queuing up a loop of Sunday’s first half instead? Let that become your reality. Blowing a 21-point advantage to lose in overtime was one thing; seeing Keenan Allen fall with a season-ending knee injury was another. It could be a long four months.​

Division Averages

Before we get to looking at where all the teams rank, let's take look at the bigger picture in the NFL. This table takes the average rankings for each team, then averages the rankings of each team in the division. It's used as a way of showing where the tougher and weaker divisions lie each week.

Division Week 1 Average Week 2 Average Difference
AFC West 13.750 13.050 0.700
AFC North 15.375 14.313 1.062
NFC North 16.200 14.838 1.362
NFC West 15.875 15.550 0.325
AFC East 15.200 15.963 -0.763
NFC South 17.675 18.438 -0.763
NFC East 19.000 19.063 -0.063
AFC South 18.925 20.788 -1.863

Stock Rising

Team Week 1 Average Week 2 Average Difference
SF 30.900 21.278 9.622
PHI 27.600 18.480 9.120
DET 22.600 16.136 6.464
TB 21.700 17.879 3.821
SDG 27.400 23.672 3.728

Stock Falling

Team Week 1 Average Week 2 Average Difference
WAS 13.500 21.621 -8.121
JAX 17.600 23.030 -5.430
ARI 2.700 6.985 -4.285
DAL 17.700 21.424 -3.724
CAR 2.800 6.283 -3.483

Subjective Average

We'll start off with the Subjective Average. These rankings are the ones that has actual people ranking the teams based on their gut feelings. You'll see in a moment that some of these sites may even just throw darts at a board, or have a chicken pecking at numbers.

I then take all those rankings and average them together, then sort the table based on the average ranking. This method evens out the peaks and valleys and allows us to get a more reliable "big picture" view of the perception of where teams rank in the league.

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit AP Average Change in Value
1 Patriots 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1.182 2.118 Rising
2 Broncos 8 6 5 4 2 1 2 3 2 2 2 3.364 3.136 Rising
3 Packers 1 3 2 3 7 7 3 2 5 6 4 3.909 0.991 Rising
4 Steelers 4 4 6 2 3 5 4 5 6 4 3 4.182 1.718 Rising
5 Seahawks 3 2 4 9 6 4 5 4 3 5 6 4.636 -1.436 Falling
6 Panthers 6 7 7 5 5 3 6 6 7 3 5 5.455 -2.655 Falling
7 Bengals 9 5 3 8 4 8 8 7 4 7 7 6.364 0.836 Rising
8 Cardinals 5 8 9 6 9 6 7 8 10 8 8 7.636 -4.936 Falling
9 Chiefs 11 11 10 12 10 9 9 9 11 9 9 10.000 -0.700 Falling
10 Vikings 12 10 11 7 16 10 10 14 8 12 10 10.909 -0.209 Falling
11 Raiders 10 9 12 10 11 11 12 13 9 11 12 10.909 0.891 Rising
12 Texans 7 12 13 11 8 12 11 11 15 10 11 11.000 1.800 Rising
13 Giants 16 13 8 18 12 16 15 10 16 14 14 13.818 3.382 Rising
14 Ravens 13 17 15 13 14 13 16 12 13 16 13 14.091 2.709 Rising
15 Buccaneers 14 14 23 14 13 15 13 16 23 17 15 16.091 5.609 Rising
16 Jets 15 22 21 15 15 20 14 15 18 13 16 16.727 -1.627 Falling
17 Lions 22 21 16 16 17 21 17 17 22 15 17 18.273 4.327 Rising
18 Jaguars 23 18 17 17 19 18 18 21 14 23 18 18.727 -1.127 Falling
19 Redskins 17 20 19 20 23 14 21 20 12 21 21 18.909 -5.409 Falling
20 Cowboys 18 15 14 25 21 17 19 19 17 22 24 19.182 -1.482 Falling
21 Eagles 20 19 25 22 20 26 23 18 21 20 19 21.182 6.418 Rising
22 Colts 19 16 18 19 24 24 25 24 28 18 23 21.636 -3.536 Falling
23 Dolphins 28 24 20 21 18 19 20 28 20 25 20 22.091 0.809 Rising
24 Bills 27 26 27 28 22 29 22 22 19 19 25 24.182 -4.682 Falling
25 Saints 24 25 26 23 25 23 27 23 25 24 22 24.273 -0.373 Falling
26 49ers 30 28 22 24 29 22 24 25 29 27 26 26.000 4.900 Rising
27 Falcons 21 23 29 29 27 25 28 27 24 26 27 26.000 -3.700 Falling
28 Chargers 25 27 24 26 28 30 29 29 27 29 28 27.455 -0.055 Falling
29 Titans 26 30 30 27 30 28 26 30 26 30 29 28.364 -1.164 Falling
30 Bears 29 29 28 30 26 27 30 26 31 28 30 28.546 -1.946 Falling
31 Rams 31 32 31 31 32 31 31 32 30 31 31 31.182 -4.482 Falling
32 Browns 32 31 32 32 31 32 32 31 32 32 32 31.727 -0.127 Falling

Subjective Standard Deviation

Put simply, Standard Deviation is a tool in statistics to measure how much variance there is in a set of numbers. To put more simply: I use it to look at who's ranked the most- and least-consistently. In Standard Deviation, the lower the number, the more consistent the values in the set.

For our purposes, this means the lower the Standard Deviation, the more consistent the rankings. The opposite is true too: the higher the number, the less consistent the rankings.

This table is sorted by most-consistently ranked to least-consistently ranked.

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit AP STD DEV Change in Value
1 Patriots 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 0.386 -0.883 Falling
2 Browns 32 31 32 32 31 32 32 31 32 32 32 0.445 -0.045 Falling
3 Rams 31 32 31 31 32 31 31 32 30 31 31 0.575 -1.794 Falling
4 Chiefs 11 11 10 12 10 9 9 9 11 9 9 1.045 -0.142 Falling
5 Steelers 4 4 6 2 3 5 4 5 6 4 3 1.192 -0.386 Falling
6 Raiders 10 9 12 10 11 11 12 13 9 11 12 1.240 -0.160 Falling
7 Panthers 6 7 7 5 5 3 6 6 7 3 5 1.373 -0.405 Falling
8 Saints 24 25 26 23 25 23 27 23 25 24 22 1.420 -0.552 Falling
9 Cardinals 5 8 9 6 9 6 7 8 10 8 8 1.432 0.014 Rising
10 Ravens 13 17 15 13 14 13 16 12 13 16 13 1.564 -0.426 Falling
11 Bears 29 29 28 30 26 27 30 26 31 28 30 1.616 -2.313 Falling
12 Titans 26 30 30 27 30 28 26 30 26 30 29 1.720 -1.680 Falling
13 Chargers 25 27 24 26 28 30 29 29 27 29 28 1.777 -0.987 Falling
14 Seahawks 3 2 4 9 6 4 5 4 3 5 6 1.823 0.574 Rising
15 Bengals 9 5 3 8 4 8 8 7 4 7 7 1.920 0.671 Rising
16 Packers 1 3 2 3 7 7 3 2 5 6 4 1.975 -0.191 Falling
17 Broncos 8 6 5 4 2 1 2 3 2 2 2 2.057 -0.483 Falling
18 Texans 7 12 13 11 8 12 11 11 15 10 11 2.089 0.256 Rising
19 Falcons 21 23 29 29 27 25 28 27 24 26 27 2.412 -0.752 Falling
20 Vikings 12 10 11 7 16 10 10 14 8 12 10 2.429 0.813 Rising
21 Eagles 20 19 25 22 20 26 23 18 21 20 19 2.443 0.384 Rising
22 Lions 22 21 16 16 17 21 17 17 22 15 17 2.526 0.194 Rising
23 Jaguars 23 18 17 17 19 18 18 21 14 23 18 2.562 -0.445 Falling
24 49ers 30 28 22 24 29 22 24 25 29 27 26 2.697 1.561 Rising
25 Giants 16 13 8 18 12 16 15 10 16 14 14 2.790 -1.788 Falling
26 Jets 15 22 21 15 15 20 14 15 18 13 16 2.895 -1.166 Falling
27 Redskins 17 20 19 20 23 14 21 20 12 21 21 3.147 0.275 Rising
28 Cowboys 18 15 14 25 21 17 19 19 17 22 24 3.353 -1.098 Falling
29 Bills 27 26 27 28 22 29 22 22 19 19 25 3.380 -0.448 Falling
30 Dolphins 28 24 20 21 18 19 20 28 20 25 20 3.397 0.929 Rising
31 Buccaneers 14 14 23 14 13 15 13 16 23 17 15 3.450 -0.601 Falling
32 Colts 19 16 18 19 24 24 25 24 28 18 23 3.600 0.010 Rising

Objective Average

I call these rankings the "Objective" rankings because unlike the rankings above, these are rankings based on statistical models of some sort. I use the term "Objective" loosely here because there is still some inherent bias in how the various models are constructed. Each ranking site has their own criteria in what they feel is success in the NFL.

All that said, these rankings are more objective as they remove perception and bias and produce rankings based on how well teams actually play, not how they're perceived to play.

Objective
FO TR SAG Aikman CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI Average Change in Value
1 Steelers 2 4 2 2 1 6 10 5 1 3.667 -3.667 Falling
2 Packers 6 5 4 3 10 7 6 8 2 5.667 -5.667 Falling
3 Cardinals 3 2 6 6 12 10 8 7 3 6.333 -6.333 Falling
4 Seahawks 1 3 3 7 23 5 3 2 10 6.333 -6.333 Falling
5 Panthers 8 7 5 4 18 9 5 3 5 7.111 -7.111 Falling
6 Chiefs 4 6 10 16 17 2 4 4 8 7.889 -7.889 Falling
7 Patriots 5 1 1 27 25 3 2 6 4 8.222 -8.222 Falling
8 Bengals 10 8 7 19 11 4 7 9 9 9.333 -9.333 Falling
9 Broncos 12 9 9 29 24 1 1 1 6 10.222 -10.222 Falling
10 Vikings 14 10 8 25 8 8 9 10 7 11.000 -11.000 Falling
11 Texans 23 11 12 15 9 12 11 12 14 13.222 -13.222 Falling
12 Lions 9 19 23 13 7 11 12 11 21 14.000 -14.000 Falling
13 Ravens 7 14 11 22 13 14 14 16 16 14.111 -14.111 Falling
14 Raiders 18 13 13 9 16 13 18 21 12 14.778 -14.778 Falling
15 Bills 15 12 17 11 22 18 15 15 15 15.556 -15.556 Falling
16 Eagles 19 25 21 5 4 16 13 14 25 15.778 -15.778 Falling
17 Giants 21 20 18 12 6 17 23 17 13 16.333 -16.333 Falling
18 49ers 25 21 20 1 2 20 20 18 22 16.556 -16.556 Falling
19 Jets 22 15 14 14 28 15 16 13 17 17.111 -17.111 Falling
20 Colts 17 18 15 20 26 24 17 20 11 18.667 -18.667 Falling
21 Buccaneers 16 22 19 10 15 22 28 25 20 19.667 -19.667 Falling
22 Chargers 11 16 26 17 19 19 24 28 19 19.889 -19.889 Falling
23 Dolphins 31 17 22 26 14 23 25 27 18 22.556 -22.556 Falling
24 Cowboys 13 26 16 21 29 29 27 26 26 23.667 -23.667 Falling
25 Rams 24 29 27 32 5 26 19 24 31 24.111 -24.111 Falling
26 Redskins 30 30 30 31 3 25 22 19 29 24.333 -24.333 Falling
27 Saints 20 24 29 24 20 28 29 23 23 24.444 -24.444 Falling
28 Falcons 27 27 28 23 21 27 21 22 28 24.889 -24.889 Falling
29 Bears 29 28 25 18 30 21 26 29 27 25.889 -25.889 Falling
30 Jaguars 28 23 24 30 27 30 30 30 24 27.333 -27.333 Falling
31 Titans 26 31 31 8 31 32 32 32 30 28.111 -28.111 Falling
32 Browns 32 32 32 28 32 31 31 31 32 31.222 -31.222 Falling

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
FO TR SAG Aikman CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI STD DEV Change in Value
1 Browns 32 32 32 28 32 31 31 31 32 1.227 1.227 Rising
2 Packers 6 5 4 3 10 7 6 8 2 2.357 2.357 Rising
3 Jaguars 28 23 24 30 27 30 30 30 24 2.789 2.789 Rising
4 Steelers 2 4 2 2 1 6 10 5 1 2.789 2.789 Rising
5 Falcons 27 27 28 23 21 27 21 22 28 2.885 2.885 Rising
6 Bills 15 12 17 11 22 18 15 15 15 3.059 3.059 Rising
7 Cardinals 3 2 6 6 12 10 8 7 3 3.162 3.162 Rising
8 Saints 20 24 29 24 20 28 29 23 23 3.304 3.304 Rising
9 Raiders 18 13 13 9 16 13 18 21 12 3.521 3.521 Rising
10 Bears 29 28 25 18 30 21 26 29 27 3.784 3.784 Rising
11 Ravens 7 14 11 22 13 14 14 16 16 3.814 3.814 Rising
12 Texans 23 11 12 15 9 12 11 12 14 3.823 3.823 Rising
13 Bengals 10 8 7 19 11 4 7 9 9 3.916 3.916 Rising
14 Panthers 8 7 5 4 18 9 5 3 5 4.254 4.254 Rising
15 Colts 17 18 15 20 26 24 17 20 11 4.269 4.269 Rising
16 Jets 22 15 14 14 28 15 16 13 17 4.581 4.581 Rising
17 Giants 21 20 18 12 6 17 23 17 13 4.944 4.944 Rising
18 Chargers 11 16 26 17 19 19 24 28 19 4.999 4.999 Rising
19 Dolphins 31 17 22 26 14 23 25 27 18 5.101 5.101 Rising
20 Chiefs 4 6 10 16 17 2 4 4 8 5.130 5.130 Rising
21 Buccaneers 16 22 19 10 15 22 28 25 20 5.142 5.142 Rising
22 Lions 9 19 23 13 7 11 12 11 21 5.292 5.292 Rising
23 Vikings 14 10 8 25 8 8 9 10 7 5.313 5.313 Rising
24 Cowboys 13 26 16 21 29 29 27 26 26 5.416 5.416 Rising
25 Seahawks 1 3 3 7 23 5 3 2 10 6.446 6.446 Rising
26 Eagles 19 25 21 5 4 16 13 14 25 7.254 7.254 Rising
27 Titans 26 31 31 8 31 32 32 32 30 7.325 7.325 Rising
28 Rams 24 29 27 32 5 26 19 24 31 7.724 7.724 Rising
29 49ers 25 21 20 1 2 20 20 18 22 8.248 8.248 Rising
30 Redskins 30 30 30 31 3 25 22 19 29 8.511 8.511 Rising
31 Broncos 12 9 9 29 24 1 1 1 6 9.554 9.554 Rising
32 Patriots 5 1 1 27 25 3 2 6 4 9.647 9.647 Rising

Overall Average

Now let's compare the two sets of data. We'll start with the "Overall Average" chart. This takes the Subjective Average and the Objective Average, and then averages those two numbers. This way it gives equal weight to both averages so that even though Subjective Average has a larger sample size, it doesn't drown out the Objective Average.

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Average Change in Value
1 Steelers 4.182 3.667 3.924 1.976 Rising
2 Patriots 1.182 8.222 4.702 -1.402 Falling
3 Packers 3.909 5.667 4.788 0.112 Rising
4 Seahawks 4.636 6.333 5.485 -2.285 Falling
5 Panthers 5.455 7.111 6.283 -3.483 Falling
6 Broncos 3.364 10.222 6.793 -0.293 Falling
7 Cardinals 7.636 6.333 6.985 -4.285 Falling
8 Bengals 6.364 9.333 7.848 -0.648 Falling
9 Chiefs 10.000 7.889 8.944 0.356 Rising
10 Vikings 10.909 11.000 10.955 -0.255 Falling
11 Texans 11.000 13.222 12.111 0.689 Rising
12 Raiders 10.909 14.778 12.843 -1.043 Falling
13 Ravens 14.091 14.111 14.101 2.699 Rising
14 Giants 13.818 16.333 15.076 2.124 Rising
15 Lions 18.273 14.000 16.136 6.464 Rising
16 Jets 16.727 17.111 16.919 -1.819 Falling
17 Buccaneers 16.091 19.667 17.879 3.821 Rising
18 Eagles 21.182 15.778 18.480 9.120 Rising
19 Bills 24.182 15.556 19.869 -0.369 Falling
20 Colts 21.636 18.667 20.152 -2.052 Falling
21 49ers 26.000 16.556 21.278 9.622 Rising
22 Cowboys 19.182 23.667 21.424 -3.724 Falling
23 Redskins 18.909 24.333 21.621 -8.121 Falling
24 Dolphins 22.091 22.556 22.323 0.577 Rising
25 Jaguars 18.727 27.333 23.030 -5.430 Falling
26 Chargers 27.455 19.889 23.672 3.728 Rising
27 Saints 24.273 24.444 24.359 -0.459 Falling
28 Falcons 26.000 24.889 25.444 -3.144 Falling
29 Bears 28.546 25.889 27.217 -0.617 Falling
30 Rams 31.182 24.111 27.646 -0.946 Falling
31 Titans 28.364 28.111 28.237 -1.037 Falling
32 Browns 31.727 31.222 31.475 0.125 Rising

Overall Standard Deviation

The Overall Standard Deviation does not average anything out, it just takes the Standard Deviation across all the rankings. Yes this will even things out slightly, but it goes to show which teams have consensus across the board.

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg STD DEV Change in Value
1 Browns 31.727 31.222 0.922 0.432 Rising
2 Steelers 4.182 3.667 2.085 0.507 Rising
3 Packers 3.909 5.667 2.326 0.160 Rising
4 Saints 24.273 24.444 2.455 0.483 Rising
5 Cardinals 7.636 6.333 2.459 1.041 Rising
6 Falcons 26.000 24.889 2.693 -0.471 Falling
7 Ravens 14.091 14.111 2.809 0.819 Rising
8 Bears 28.546 25.889 3.103 -0.826 Falling
9 Panthers 5.455 7.111 3.140 1.362 Rising
10 Raiders 10.909 14.778 3.182 1.782 Rising
11 Texans 11.000 13.222 3.194 1.361 Rising
12 Bengals 6.364 9.333 3.333 2.084 Rising
13 Chiefs 10.000 7.889 3.681 2.494 Rising
14 Jets 16.727 17.111 3.754 -0.307 Falling
15 Vikings 10.909 11.000 3.993 2.377 Rising
16 Giants 13.818 16.333 4.105 -0.473 Falling
17 Colts 21.636 18.667 4.185 0.595 Rising
18 Dolphins 22.091 22.556 4.256 1.788 Rising
19 Lions 18.273 14.000 4.542 2.210 Rising
20 Seahawks 4.636 6.333 4.609 3.360 Rising
21 Buccaneers 16.091 19.667 4.649 0.598 Rising
22 Cowboys 19.182 23.667 4.936 0.485 Rising
23 Jaguars 18.727 27.333 5.044 2.037 Rising
24 Titans 28.364 28.111 5.078 1.678 Rising
25 Chargers 27.455 19.889 5.210 2.446 Rising
26 Bills 24.182 15.556 5.377 1.549 Rising
27 Eagles 21.182 15.778 5.847 3.788 Rising
28 Rams 31.182 24.111 6.277 3.908 Rising
29 Redskins 18.909 24.333 6.733 3.861 Rising
30 Patriots 1.182 8.222 7.364 6.095 Rising
31 Broncos 3.364 10.222 7.419 4.879 Rising
32 49ers 26.000 16.556 7.529 6.393 Rising

Difference in Averages

This compares the Subjective average ranking with the Objective average ranking. This tells us just how far off people are from the formulas. A positive number means people think they will be or are better than the stats indicate, a negative number means the math thinks they're better than what people think. The closer to 0 this number is, the more in agreement the Subjective and Objective rankings are.

Generally speaking, the Subjective Rankings tend to be more reactionary to a team's performance than the mathematical models are. You'll often end up with major peaks and valleys for a team in the Subjective rankings, where the Objective rankings are more steady.

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Diff. in Avg Change in Value
1 Jaguars 18.727 27.333 8.606 26.206 Rising
2 Patriots 1.182 8.222 7.040 10.340 Rising
3 Broncos 3.364 10.222 6.859 13.359 Rising
4 Redskins 18.909 24.333 5.424 18.924 Rising
5 Cowboys 19.182 23.667 4.485 22.185 Rising
6 Raiders 10.909 14.778 3.869 15.669 Rising
7 Buccaneers 16.091 19.667 3.576 25.276 Rising
8 Bengals 6.364 9.333 2.970 10.170 Rising
9 Giants 13.818 16.333 2.515 19.715 Rising
10 Texans 11.000 13.222 2.222 15.022 Rising
11 Packers 3.909 5.667 1.758 6.658 Rising
12 Seahawks 4.636 6.333 1.697 4.897 Rising
13 Panthers 5.455 7.111 1.657 4.457 Rising
14 Dolphins 22.091 22.556 0.465 23.365 Rising
15 Jets 16.727 17.111 0.384 15.484 Rising
16 Saints 24.273 24.444 0.172 24.072 Rising
17 Vikings 10.909 11.000 0.091 10.791 Rising
18 Ravens 14.091 14.111 0.020 16.820 Rising
19 Titans 28.364 28.111 -0.253 26.947 Rising
20 Browns 31.727 31.222 -0.505 31.095 Rising
21 Steelers 4.182 3.667 -0.515 5.385 Rising
22 Falcons 26.000 24.889 -1.111 21.189 Rising
23 Cardinals 7.636 6.333 -1.303 1.397 Rising
24 Chiefs 10.000 7.889 -2.111 7.189 Rising
25 Bears 28.546 25.889 -2.657 23.943 Rising
26 Colts 21.636 18.667 -2.970 15.130 Rising
27 Lions 18.273 14.000 -4.273 18.327 Rising
28 Eagles 21.182 15.778 -5.404 22.196 Rising
29 Rams 31.182 24.111 -7.071 19.629 Rising
30 Chargers 27.455 19.889 -7.566 19.834 Rising
31 Bills 24.182 15.556 -8.626 10.874 Rising
32 49ers 26.000 16.556 -9.444 21.456 Rising

Sources

Subjective Objective
ESPN Football Outsiders
Fox Team Rankings
CBS Sagarin
USA Today Aikman Efficiency
Sports Illustrated Cold Hard Football Facts
ProFootballTalk Massey
NFL.com ARGH
SportingNews Five Thirty Eight
SB Nation Football Power Index
Reddit
Associated Press

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