:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/50837997/usa-today-9536056.0.jpg)
By any statistical measure, the loss last Sunday was the worst blown opportunity of Mike McCoy's Head Coaching career with the San Diego Chargers. Since we're all more than familiar with the cause of the loss, and the thinking (or lack thereof) which lead to it, let's ask ourselves a question.
Was this loss truly indicative of McCoy's coaching career in San Diego?
Let's get some answers below...
Show Me The Numbers
First of all, click to see the full article and graph, but Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Analytics modeled win probability based on lead and time remaining.
It's not a perfect lead-in to the data in the tables below, especially considering the data below isn't filtered to remove situations where the team leads and does not have possession.
That said, when you look at the graph in the article, one point stands out. The team which has even a 1 point lead with possession at the start of the 4th quarter has no worse than 55% expectation of winning. That jumps to 75% with a 3 point lead and the ball, and jumps to 85% with a 7 point lead and the ball.
Just for reference, the Chargers led 27-10 with possession and less than 12 minutes to play. Statistically speaking, the final result was nearly impossible (see image below from Pro Football Reference).
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7097267/Screen_Shot_2016-09-13_at_9.13.33_PM.0.png)
In any case, I decided to take a look at the instances the Chargers have held a 4th quarter lead throughout McCoy's tenure as Head Coach. Refer to Table 1 below:
| Year | Wk | Opp | 4th/OT Lead | Score | Time Left | Blown | Final Score | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 1 | HOU | 14 | 28-14 | 15:00 | 1 | 28-31 | 0 | 1 |
| 2013 | 2 | at PHI | 3 | 23-20 | 10:47 | 1 | 33-30 | 1 | 0 |
| 2013 | 3 | at TEN | 7 | 17-10 | 15:00 | 1 | 17-20 | 0 | 1 |
| 2013 | 4 | DAL | 2 | 23-21 | 14:46 | 0 | 30-21 | 1 | 0 |
| 2013 | 6 | IND | 7 | 13-6 | 15:00 | 0 | 19-10 | 1 | 0 |
| 2013 | 12 | at KC | 3 | 34-31 | 7:50 | 1 | 41-38 | 1 | 0 |
| 2013 | 14 | NYG | 24 | 31-7 | 15:00 | 0 | 37-14 | 1 | 0 |
| 2013 | 15 | at DEN | 14 | 24-10 | 15:00 | 0 | 27-20 | 1 | 0 |
| 2013 | 16 | OAK | 10 | 20-10 | 15:00 | 0 | 26-13 | 1 | 0 |
| 2013 | 17 | KC | 3 | 27-24 | 5:07 | 0 | 27-24 OT | 1 | 0 |
| 2013 | Totals | 4 | 8 | 2 | |||||
| 2014 | 1 | at ARZ | 11 | 17-6 | 15:00 | 1 | 18-17 | 0 | 1 |
| 2014 | 2 | SEA | 6 | 27-21 | 15:00 | 0 | 30-21 | 1 | 0 |
| 2014 | 3 | at BUF | 10 | 20-10 | 15:00 | 0 | 22-10 | 1 | 0 |
| 2014 | 4 | JAX | 13 | 27-14 | 15:00 | 0 | 33-14 | 1 | 0 |
| 2014 | 5 | NYJ | 28 | 28-0 | 15:00 | 0 | 31-0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2014 | 6 | at OAK | 3 | 31-28 | 1:56 | 0 | 31-28 | 1 | 0 |
| 2014 | 7 | KC | 1 | 14-13 | 15:00 | 1 | 20-23 | 0 | 1 |
| 2014 | 11 | OAK | 10 | 13-3 | 15:00 | 0 | 13-6 | 1 | 0 |
| 2014 | 12 | STL | 3 | 20-17 | 15:00 | 0 | 27-24 | 1 | 0 |
| 2014 | 13 | at BAL | 1 | 34-33 | 0:38 | 0 | 34-33 | 1 | 0 |
| 2014 | 14 | NE | 1 | 14-13 | 15:00 | 1 | 14-23 | 0 | 1 |
| 2014 | 16 | at SF | 3 | 38-35 | 10:06 | 0 | 38-35 OT | 1 | 0 |
| 2014 | Totals | 3 | 9 | 3 | |||||
| 2015 | 1 | DET | 1 | 26-21 | 11:49 | 0 | 33-28 | 1 | 0 |
| 2015 | 4 | CLE | 4 | 20-16 | 7:26 | 1 | 30-27 | 1 | 0 |
| 2015 | 5 | PIT | 7 | 17-10 | 8:02 | 1 | 20-24 | 0 | 1 |
| 2015 | 8 | at BAL | 4 | 23-19 | 15:00 | 1 | 26-29 | 0 | 1 |
| 2015 | 9 | CHI | 9 | 16-7 | 15:00 | 1 | 19-22 | 0 | 1 |
| 2015 | 11 | at JAX | 12 | 24-12 | 15:00 | 0 | 31-25 | 1 | 0 |
| 2015 | 15 | MIA | 16 | 23-7 | 15:00 | 0 | 30-14 | 1 | 0 |
| 2015 | 16 | at OAK | 5 | 17-12 | 15:00 | 1 | 20-23 OT | 0 | 1 |
| 2015 | 17 | at DEN | 3 | 20-17 | 12:58 | 1 | 20-27 | 0 | 1 |
| 2015 | Totals | 6 | 4 | 5 | |||||
| 2016 | 1 | at KC | 14 | 24-10 | 15:00 | 1 | 27-33 OT | 0 | 1 |
| 2016 | Totals | 1 | 0 | 1 | |||||
| Total | 32 games | 14 | 21 | 11 |
Table notes
- The 4th/OT lead indicates the 1st point at which the Chargers held a 4th quarter for overtime (OT) lead.
- Score indicates the score at the time they 1st held a 4th quarter or OT lead, not the biggest margin in the 4th quarter or OT.
- Time Left indicates the time remaining in the 4th quarter or OT.
- Blown indicates whether the opposing team tied or took the lead after the Chargers 1st held the 4th quarter our OT lead.
- Final Score indicates the final game score.
- Win and Loss indicates if the team went on to win or lose the game (i.e. it;s possible to both blow a 4th quarter lead, then retake the lead and win the game).
Before we move on to the observations, let's take a look at some other coaches. For this comparison, I'm choosing to look at the three remaining coaches who were hired in 2013 at about the same time as Mike McCoy, and who are still employed by the same team. Those three coaches are Bruce Arians, Gus Bradley, and Andy Reid. I've included McCoy's summary statistics in Table 2 for easier comparison:
| Bruce Arians | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Games wlead | Blown | W | L | Win Pct | Blown Pct |
| 2013 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 90.9% | 9.1% |
| 2014 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 2015 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 100.0% | 23.1% |
| 2016 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Total | 5 | 34 | 2 | 94.4% | 13.9% | |
| Gus Bradley | ||||||
| Year | Games wlead | Blown | W | L | Win Pct | Blown Pct |
| 2013 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 80.0% | 40.0% |
| 2014 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| 2015 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 62.5% | 62.5% |
| 2016 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| Total | 9 | 12 | 6 | 66.7% | 50.0% | |
| Andy Reid | ||||||
| Year | Games wlead | Blown | W | L | Win Pct | Blown Pct |
| 2013 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 84.6% | 23.1% |
| 2014 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 81.8% | 27.3% |
| 2015 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 84.6% | 15.4% |
| 2016 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Total | 8 | 32 | 6 | 84.2% | 21.1% | |
| Mike McCoy | ||||||
| Year | Games wlead | Blown | W | L | Win Pct | Blown Pct |
| 2013 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 80.0% | 40.0% |
| 2014 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| 2015 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 44.4% | 66.7% |
| 2016 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Total | 14 | 21 | 11 | 65.6% | 43.8% |
Observations
- The Arizona Cardinals are 34-2 under Arians in games where they have a 4th quarter lead. Under Arians, the have only 5 blown 4th quarter leads. That is absolutely astounding (and again I apologize to everyone 4 years ago for not including him on my list of preferred candidates due to his age). How did Tom Telesco not lobby hard for Arians when he was hired in San Diego?
- McCoy is not the guy you want with leads in a season opener. In terms of Win Probability, his three worst losses were (in order) 2014 at Arizona, 2013 vs. Houston, and Sunday at Kansas City.
- With a comparable number of 4th quarter leads to both Arians and Reid, and arguably the best QB of all three teams in Philip Rivers, the fact that McCoy's win percentage in games while holding a 4th quarter lead is worse than both coaches underscores how poorly the team has performed in crucial situations.
- McCoy is trending down in Win Percentage over his career as Head Coach. A similar result to 2015, or a continuing downward trend in 2016 will all but seal his fate as a head coach.
- McCoy was at least comparable to Reid in his 1st 2 seasons as Head Coach. 2015 however was a nightmare for everyone involved with the organization. 2015 may be an aberration; a lost year (and given everything going on with the franchise 1 year ago, that's not an unreasonable position). Obviously, we'll have to see how it plays out. If 2015 had produced similar results to 2013 or 2014, the Chargers finish the 2015 season with about a 7-9 record.
- We see here the effect of taking over an empty cupboard in the case of Jacksonville's Gus Bradley.He has about half as many 4th quarter leads as Reid, Arians, and McCoy. Further, his team performs about as well in overall Win Percentage as the Chargers do in these situations - due to the Chargers horrendous 2015 results.
Summary
The real question here with McCoy is whether he can get back to the same level of 4th quarter success he demonstrated in 2013 and 2014. In those years, McCoy slightly under performed compared to some more accomplished coaches, but wasn't so bad that it merited a change on its own.
2015, on the other hand, was a disaster of appalling proportions that McCoy was lucky to survive. It really begs the question of which set of data is the outlier (i.e. was McCoy really lucky in 2013 and 2014, or really unlucky in 2015)?
And while it's a small sample size, there is one conclusion I'm comfortable with drawing in regards to McCoy.
Don't ever give him a double-digit 4th quarter lead in a season opener ever again.