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2016 NFL Over/Under win totals: Chargers projected to finish last

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Where does Las Vegas project the Chargers finishing next season?

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

To give you an idea of what Vegas thinks will happen in the AFC, they place an over/under number on wins and losses. Sticking with the AFC West because that's really all that matters for us, Vegas expects:

  • Kansas City-9.5 wins
  • Denver-9 wins
  • Oakland-8 wins
  • San Diego-7 wins
Of course, there will be a lot of things that change between today and Week 1, whether it's injuries, suspensions, or players roles with their respective teams. I would say a lot has to go right for both the Chargers and the Broncos to hit their over. Denver is still loaded on defense and I don't believe they'll miss a beat. Still, their quarterback and offensive line will be a major question and they're bound to have issues early on in the season figuring out how to score points. I would not invest in a team with questions at both positions.

Later today we'll get into what the Chargers have to do to hit their over but I will say that there's a reason that they're listed last.

The Raiders turned a weakness into a strength by addressing their secondary with Sean Smith, Reggie Nelson and 1st round pick Karl Joseph. They now have 1 of the best offensive lines in the NFL to go with their up and coming QB. They also have 1 of the top 5 defensive players in the NFL. Whether we want to admit it or not, they have a very good team. I would take the over with the Raiders.

If Justin Houston doesn't play for the Chiefs, this changes quite a bit. There is no replacing him. He is worth 1-2 wins alone. I imagine the reason Kansas City is so high is because their schedule. Andy Reid will keep the team over 7 wins based on the talent alone, but will it be 8 or 9 wins? I would bet the under either way.

Who is the cream of the crop in the AFC West? Do you think it's fair for the Chargers to be listed last? Are the Raiders actually good?