2016 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 14

With just four games left in the season, the Dallas Cowboys are cruising right along, riding an 11-game winning streak. Are they an elite team this year? Or just beneficiaries of a soft schedule and no other dominant teams in the league this year?

I'm not sure how many of you are aware, but there aren't any far-and-away elite teams this year. Meaning teams that are dominant on 2-to-3 phases of the game. Cowboys? Great offense, poor defense. Patriots? Same story. Raiders? Yup.

Here's Football Outsiders just to give us some perspective:

The Year of No Great Teams has reached another pinnacle... or is it more appropriate to say nadir? New England has 19.9% DVOA and Dallas has 19.7% DVOA, making this the first time in the history of the DVOA ratings that the No. 1 team has been below 20%.

For a while it looked like the Eagles would be that great team this year, and then the offense fell apart. That leaves us with the Patriots, Cowboys, and (surprising) Raiders as the teams garnering the national attention for their success this year. In a year with no great teams, it's all relative, but in the end one team is going to win the Super Bowl and nobody is going to care just how good the rest of the league was that year.

Notable Quotes

Philip Rivers has had three interceptions returned for touchdowns this season. All three gave the Chargers' opponents the lead. Those mistakes represent only a few of San Diego's league-leading 25 giveaways (tied with the Jaguars) this season, but they might be the biggest. The Chargers head to Carolina this week.

The Chargers’ defense has forced 24 turnovers this season, paced by NFL interceptions leader Casey Hayward. Annnnnd that’s almost been enough to offset the mess created by San Diego’s offense, which has coughed it up 25 times, third-most in the league.

Bet you didn't know they've scored more points than any other AFC team. But more is needed for team with two more trips to Eastern time zone.

Division Averages

AFC West back on top with the rest of the NFC East fading a bit. AFC South somehow got worse. Crazy to think where the Chargers would be if they played in the AFC South this year.

Stock Rising

Stock Falling

Subjective Average

		Subjective
		ESPN	Fox	CBS	USA	SI	NFL	SN	SBN	Reddit	PFF	AP		Average		Change in Value
1	Cowboys	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.000		0.000
2	Patriots	2	2	2	3	3	2	2	3	2	2	2		2.273		0.560
3	Raiders	3	3	3	5	2	3	3	2	3	3	3		3.000		1.500
4	Seahawks	4	4	6	2	5	4	5	4	5	4	5		4.364		-1.614
5	Chiefs	7	5	4	6	4	5	4	5	4	5	4		4.818		-0.401
6	Broncos	9	7	5	10	7	6	6	7	6	7	6		6.909		-0.742
7	Lions	8	6	7	7	6	7	7	8	7	11	7		7.364		4.303
8	Falcons	10	8	10	4	8	12	12	6	8	6	9		8.455		-1.205
9	Steelers	5	9	11	13	11	9	10	9	10	9	8		9.455		7.878
10	Ravens	6	14	9	12	10	8	9	10	11	8	10		9.727		5.023
11	Giants	14	11	8	8	12	10	8	11	9	12	11		10.364		-1.281
12	Buccaneers	12	10	12	14	9	13	11	13	12	14	12		12.000		12.917
13	Redskins	13	12	14	9	15	11	14	12	13	10	13		12.364		-1.947
14	Dolphins	16	16	13	11	13	15	13	14	14	16	15		14.182		-0.432
15	Packers	11	13	21	22	14	14	15	17	16	18	14		15.909		3.091
16	Bills	18	15	20	23	18	16	18	15	17	15	20		17.727		1.856
17	Vikings	15	17	17	18	24	18	16	22	15	21	16		18.091		-2.174
18	Colts	25	18	18	20	16	17	19	24	22	22	17		19.818		3.349
19	Titans	19	19	19	21	21	23	20	23	19	17	18		19.909		-2.492
20	Chargers	21	22	15	16	20	20	23	19	21	20	22		19.909		1.424
21	Cardinals	17	21	25	26	19	19	21	20	20	13	21		20.182		-3.015
22	Texans	22	20	16	19	22	22	17	25	18	24	19		20.364		-8.447
23	Saints	26	25	22	15	17	21	22	18	24	27	23		21.818		-2.985
24	Eagles	20	24	23	17	26	25	24	21	23	19	24		22.364		-11.197
25	Bengals	24	23	24	27	23	24	25	16	25	23	25		23.546		-1.546
26	Panthers	23	26	26	24	25	26	26	26	26	25	26		25.364		-1.114
27	Rams	27	28	28	25	29	27	27	28	27	28	27		27.364		-1.864
28	Bears	28	27	29	30	27	28	29	27	28	26	28		27.909		1.174
29	Jets	29	30	27	28	30	29	28	29	29	30	29		28.909		-0.742
30	Jaguars	30	31	30	31	28	30	30	30	30	29	30		29.909		-0.076
31	49ers	31	29	31	29	32	31	31	31	31	32	31		30.818		0.099
32	Browns	32	32	32	32	31	32	32	32	32	31	32		31.818		0.099

Observations:

• I know it's been 3 weeks between times I compiled the rankings, but the Cowboys remain the unanimous top pick. For the most part, pundits just go off win-loss records. Heck, even PFT says outright, "we always start with last year's Super Bowl winner at #1 until they lose."
• Pretty consistent top 5. In fact, over 2 spots on average separate the Chiefs from the Broncos.
• Half of the top 6 teams come from the AFC West. In fact, the Patriots are the only team in the AFC ranked above 75% of the AFC West. That means based on this list, the other 3 division winners in the conference would maybe be underdogs at home in the playoffs
• Even though they have yet to win a game this year, some pundits aren't convinced about the Browns being the worst team in the NFL anymore, instead giving the nod to the 49ers.

Subjective Standard Deviation

		Subjective
		ESPN	Fox	CBS	USA	SI	NFL	SN	SBN	Reddit	PFF	AP		STD DEV		Change in Value
1	Cowboys	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		0.000		0.000
2	Browns	32	32	32	32	31	32	32	32	32	31	32		0.386		0.110
3	Patriots	2	2	2	3	3	2	2	3	2	2	2		0.445		-0.242
4	Raiders	3	3	3	5	2	3	3	2	3	3	3		0.739		-0.379
5	Jaguars	30	31	30	31	28	30	30	30	30	29	30		0.793		0.240
6	Jets	29	30	27	28	30	29	28	29	29	30	29		0.900		0.213
7	Chiefs	7	5	4	6	4	5	4	5	4	5	4		0.936		-0.102
8	49ers	31	29	31	29	32	31	31	31	31	32	31		0.936		0.443
9	Seahawks	4	4	6	2	5	4	5	4	5	4	5		0.979		-0.185
10	Rams	27	28	28	25	29	27	27	28	27	28	27		0.979		-1.200
11	Panthers	23	26	26	24	25	26	26	26	26	25	26		0.979		-1.441
12	Bears	28	27	29	30	27	28	29	27	28	26	28		1.083		0.324
13	Lions	8	6	7	7	6	7	7	8	7	11	7		1.298		-3.162
14	Broncos	9	7	5	10	7	6	6	7	6	7	6		1.379		0.312
15	Buccaneers	12	10	12	14	9	13	11	13	12	14	12		1.477		-0.583
16	Dolphins	16	16	13	11	13	15	13	14	14	16	15		1.527		-1.818
17	Redskins	13	12	14	9	15	11	14	12	13	10	13		1.720		0.464
18	Titans	19	19	19	21	21	23	20	23	19	17	18		1.832		-0.951
19	Giants	14	11	8	8	12	10	8	11	9	12	11		1.872		-0.692
20	Steelers	5	9	11	13	11	9	10	9	10	9	8		1.924		-1.712
21	Ravens	6	14	9	12	10	8	9	10	11	8	10		2.049		-0.265
22	Chargers	21	22	15	16	20	20	23	19	21	20	22		2.353		-0.711
23	Falcons	10	8	10	4	8	12	12	6	8	6	9		2.388		0.909
24	Bills	18	15	20	23	18	16	18	15	17	15	20		2.416		-0.541
25	Eagles	20	24	23	17	26	25	24	21	23	19	24		2.638		-0.329
26	Bengals	24	23	24	27	23	24	25	16	25	23	25		2.641		-1.056
27	Texans	22	20	16	19	22	22	17	25	18	24	19		2.739		-0.356
28	Vikings	15	17	17	18	24	18	16	22	15	21	16		2.843		-0.252
29	Colts	25	18	18	20	16	17	19	24	22	22	17		2.886		0.062
30	Packers	11	13	21	22	14	14	15	17	16	18	14		3.204		-0.493
31	Cardinals	17	21	25	26	19	19	21	20	20	13	21		3.353		-1.543
32	Saints	26	25	22	15	17	21	22	18	24	27	23		3.639		0.815

Observations:

• Cowboys remain unanimous, we knew that.
• Pretty good confidence at the top and bottom of the rankings.
• Packers, Cardinals, and Saints, three powerhouse teams that many thought would make it far in the playoffs this year are having down years. Some pundits are having a hard time reconciling that.
• And really, who knows just what is going on in Indianapolis this year?

Objective Average

		Objective
		FO	TR	SAG	BG	Aikman	PFR	CHFF	Massey	ARGH	538	FPI		Average		Change in Value
1	Patriots	1	1	1	2	2	2	1	4	2	1	1		1.636		0.546
2	Cowboys	2	3	2	3	1	1	3	1	1	4	6		2.455		0.545
3	Seahawks	3	2	3	1	9	5	2	7	5	3	2		3.818		-0.182
4	Steelers	7	5	5	4	5	6	7	9	8	7	4		6.091		5.727
5	Broncos	11	4	4	8	12	4	9	5	6	5	3		6.455		0.181
6	Raiders	6	8	8	7	6	7	8	2	3	6	10		6.455		2.545
7	Falcons	4	7	7	6	13	3	6	6	7	9	5		6.636		1.364
8	Chiefs	8	6	6	5	19	8	10	3	4	2	13		7.636		0.364
9	Bills	16	10	9	23	10	13	13	13	15	11	8		12.818		-2.727
10	Vikings	14	11	11	15	23	10	4	19	13	13	9		12.909		-1.545
11	Ravens	9	12	10	19	7	14	11	15	9	16	21		13.000		5.182
12	Redskins	10	19	14	11	24	12	14	12	12	15	17		14.546		0.636
13	Lions	26	18	15	10	14	16	17	10	10	8	24		15.273		4.000
14	Eagles	5	15	12	25	11	9	15	21	16	22	19		15.455		-8.546
15	Cardinals	22	9	13	28	8	18	12	26	19	10	7		15.636		-3.727
16	Giants	13	21	18	17	17	17	19	11	11	17	18		16.273		-0.091
17	Saints	15	17	21	21	4	15	16	20	20	24	11		16.727		-1.181
18	Packers	12	16	16	14	22	20	24	16	18	14	12		16.727		2.091
19	Chargers	17	13	17	22	15	11	18	14	17	25	16		16.818		1.546
20	Buccaneers	20	22	20	16	21	19	22	8	14	18	23		18.455		7.181
21	Titans	18	25	24	13	3	23	5	23	23	27	20		18.546		1.272
22	Bengals	21	14	19	24	20	21	21	24	22	19	14		19.909		-1.454
23	Colts	25	23	22	12	18	22	25	17	21	20	22		20.636		2.000
24	Panthers	24	20	23	18	16	24	26	25	26	12	15		20.818		-4.363
25	Dolphins	19	24	25	20	25	26	20	18	24	21	25		22.455		-5.364
26	Texans	30	26	26	9	27	25	27	22	25	23	26		24.182		-4.182
27	Bears	23	30	28	29	26	27	23	28	28	29	29		27.273		1.182
28	Rams	28	27	27	26	30	29	28	27	27	26	31		27.818		-1.818
29	Jaguars	27	28	29	27	28	28	29	30	30	30	27		28.455		0.818
30	Jets	31	29	30	30	29	30	30	29	29	28	28		29.364		-1.637
31	49ers	29	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	30		30.727		-0.091
32	Browns	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		32.000		-0.273

Observations:

• Patriots with more first place rankings (6) than the Cowboys (4) in the objective rankings.
• Broncos and Raiders are actually tied in this list, but Raiders are climbing fast.
• Aikman and FPI fairly down on the Chiefs, relatively speaking. Merely outliers or do they see something the others are missing? With 3 divisional games at home to close the season, I still like their chances for the playoffs or to win the division.
• Pundits may not agree on Browns being worst, but the models are in full agreement.

Objective Standard Deviation

		Objective
		FO	TR	SAG	BG	Aikman	PFR	CHFF	Massey	ARGH	538	FPI		STD DEV		Change in Value
1	Browns	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		0.000		-0.862
2	49ers	29	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	30		0.617		-0.264
3	Jets	31	29	30	30	29	30	30	29	29	28	28		0.881		-0.720
4	Patriots	1	1	1	2	2	2	1	4	2	1	1		0.881		-0.815
5	Jaguars	27	28	29	27	28	28	29	30	30	30	27		1.157		0.195
6	Cowboys	2	3	2	3	1	1	3	1	1	4	6		1.499		-0.455
7	Rams	28	27	27	26	30	29	28	27	27	26	31		1.527		-0.231
8	Steelers	7	5	5	4	5	6	7	9	8	7	4		1.564		-2.269
9	Raiders	6	8	8	7	6	7	8	2	3	6	10		2.189		-1.249
10	Bears	23	30	28	29	26	27	23	28	28	29	29		2.260		-0.311
11	Seahawks	3	2	3	1	9	5	2	7	5	3	2		2.328		-0.094
12	Falcons	4	7	7	6	13	3	6	6	7	9	5		2.532		-0.572
13	Dolphins	19	24	25	20	25	26	20	18	24	21	25		2.742		-1.739
14	Broncos	11	4	4	8	12	4	9	5	6	5	3		2.935		-0.403
15	Giants	13	21	18	17	17	17	19	11	11	17	18		3.078		-0.802
16	Bengals	21	14	19	24	20	21	21	24	22	19	14		3.204		1.015
17	Colts	25	23	22	12	18	22	25	17	21	20	22		3.625		0.102
18	Packers	12	16	16	14	22	20	24	16	18	14	12		3.744		-0.642
19	Chargers	17	13	17	22	15	11	18	14	17	25	16		3.762		-0.152
20	Redskins	10	19	14	11	24	12	14	12	12	15	17		3.917		-2.215
21	Bills	16	10	9	23	10	13	13	13	15	11	8		3.996		-0.506
22	Buccaneers	20	22	20	16	21	19	22	8	14	18	23		4.186		2.219
23	Ravens	9	12	10	19	7	14	11	15	9	16	21		4.221		1.064
24	Panthers	24	20	23	18	16	24	26	25	26	12	15		4.668		-1.261
25	Chiefs	8	6	6	5	19	8	10	3	4	2	13		4.696		0.390
26	Vikings	14	11	11	15	23	10	4	19	13	13	9		4.814		1.114
27	Texans	30	26	26	9	27	25	27	22	25	23	26		5.202		-2.556
28	Saints	15	17	21	21	4	15	16	20	20	24	11		5.327		0.366
29	Lions	26	18	15	10	14	16	17	10	10	8	24		5.561		-0.193
30	Eagles	5	15	12	25	11	9	15	21	16	22	19		5.727		1.926
31	Cardinals	22	9	13	28	8	18	12	26	19	10	7		7.049		0.024
32	Titans	18	25	24	13	3	23	5	23	23	27	20		7.750		-0.483

Observations:

• Again, good consensus on top and bottom of the rankings.
• Titans all over the board.
• 5 of the 7 least-consistently-ranked teams are NFC teams.
• Packers were in the bottom 3 in the subjective list, but they're right in the middle of this Objective list.
• Cardinals and Saints are in the bottom 5 here again. So really, who knows?

Overall Average

		Subj vs Obj
		Subj Avg	Obj Avg		Average		Change in Value
1	Cowboys	1.000	2.455		1.727		0.273
2	Patriots	2.273	1.636		1.955		0.553
3	Seahawks	4.364	3.818		4.091		-0.898
4	Raiders	3.000	6.455		4.727		2.023
5	Chiefs	4.818	7.636		6.227		-0.019
6	Broncos	6.909	6.455		6.682		-0.280
7	Falcons	8.455	6.636		7.545		0.080
8	Steelers	9.455	6.091		7.773		6.803
9	Lions	7.364	15.273		11.318		4.152
10	Ravens	9.727	13.000		11.364		5.102
11	Giants	10.364	16.273		13.318		-0.685
12	Redskins	12.364	14.546		13.455		-0.656
13	Buccaneers	12.000	18.455		15.227		10.050
14	Bills	17.727	12.818		15.273		-0.436
15	Vikings	18.091	12.909		15.500		-1.860
16	Packers	15.909	16.727		16.318		2.591
17	Cardinals	20.182	15.636		17.909		-3.371
18	Dolphins	14.182	22.455		18.318		-2.898
19	Chargers	19.909	16.818		18.364		1.484
20	Eagles	22.364	15.455		18.909		-9.871
21	Titans	19.909	18.546		19.227		-0.610
22	Saints	21.818	16.727		19.273		-2.084
23	Colts	19.818	20.636		20.227		2.675
24	Bengals	23.546	19.909		21.727		-1.500
25	Texans	20.364	24.182		22.273		-6.315
26	Panthers	25.364	20.818		23.091		-2.739
27	Bears	27.909	27.273		27.591		1.178
28	Rams	27.364	27.818		27.591		-1.841
29	Jets	28.909	29.364		29.136		-1.189
30	Jaguars	29.909	28.455		29.182		0.371
31	49ers	30.818	30.727		30.773		0.004
32	Browns	31.818	32.000		31.909		-0.087

Observations:

• Cowboys keep the top spot overall, but the Patriots are getting close.
• Interesting, teams are paired up all the way down the list with like-rankings. Cowboys-Patriots. Seahawks-Raiders. Chiefs-Broncos. Falcons-Steelers.
• Sharp drop-off from the Steelers to the Lions with almost 4 spots separating them.
• A larger drop-off from the Panthers to the Bears with exactly 4.5 spots separating them.

Overall Standard Deviation

		Subj vs Obj
		Subj Avg	Obj Avg		STD DEV		Change in Value
1	Browns	31.818	32.000		0.288		-0.348
2	Patriots	2.273	1.636		0.767		-0.548
3	49ers	30.818	30.727		0.794		0.074
4	Jets	28.909	29.364		0.919		-0.314
5	Jaguars	29.909	28.455		1.230		0.405
6	Cowboys	1.000	2.455		1.286		-0.395
7	Rams	27.364	27.818		1.302		-0.703
8	Bears	27.909	27.273		1.801		-0.086
9	Seahawks	4.364	3.818		1.807		-0.119
10	Broncos	6.909	6.455		2.304		-0.141
11	Raiders	3.000	6.455		2.378		-0.992
12	Steelers	9.455	6.091		2.430		-2.209
13	Falcons	8.455	6.636		2.624		0.197
14	Redskins	12.364	14.546		3.215		-1.732
15	Colts	19.818	20.636		3.302		0.113
16	Bengals	23.546	19.909		3.453		-0.091
17	Chargers	19.909	16.818		3.497		-0.301
18	Packers	15.909	16.727		3.508		-0.534
19	Chiefs	4.818	7.636		3.667		0.112
20	Ravens	9.727	13.000		3.700		0.460
21	Giants	10.364	16.273		3.901		-0.916
22	Panthers	25.364	20.818		4.067		-1.852
23	Bills	17.727	12.818		4.114		-1.947
24	Buccaneers	12.000	18.455		4.502		2.454
25	Texans	20.364	24.182		4.575		-2.502
26	Dolphins	14.182	22.455		4.694		0.425
27	Vikings	18.091	12.909		4.727		0.639
28	Saints	21.818	16.727		5.224		0.908
29	Eagles	22.364	15.455		5.640		1.637
30	Lions	7.364	15.273		5.652		-0.724
31	Titans	19.909	18.546		5.672		-0.484
32	Cardinals	20.182	15.636		5.969		-0.589

Observations:

• Not much new to add here other than to point out that even with only 1.4 spots separating the Titans' objective and subjective rankings, they're still the second-least consistently-ranked team.

Difference in Averages

		Subj vs Obj
		Subj Avg	Obj Avg		Diff. in Avg		Change in Value
1	Dolphins	14.182	22.455		8.273		4.932
2	Lions	7.364	15.273		7.909		0.303
3	Buccaneers	12.000	18.455		6.455		5.735
4	Giants	10.364	16.273		5.909		-1.190
5	Texans	20.364	24.182		3.818		-4.265
6	Raiders	3.000	6.455		3.455		-1.045
7	Ravens	9.727	13.000		3.273		-0.159
8	Chiefs	4.818	7.636		2.818		-0.765
9	Redskins	12.364	14.546		2.182		-2.583
10	Cowboys	1.000	2.455		1.455		-0.545
11	Packers	15.909	16.727		0.818		1.000
12	Colts	19.818	20.636		0.818		1.348
13	Jets	28.909	29.364		0.455		0.894
14	Rams	27.364	27.818		0.455		-0.045
15	Browns	31.818	32.000		0.182		0.371
16	49ers	30.818	30.727		-0.091		0.189
17	Broncos	6.909	6.455		-0.455		-0.925
18	Seahawks	4.364	3.818		-0.545		-1.431
19	Bears	27.909	27.273		-0.636		-0.007
20	Patriots	2.273	1.636		-0.636		0.016
21	Titans	19.909	18.546		-1.364		-3.766
22	Jaguars	29.909	28.455		-1.455		-0.894
23	Falcons	8.455	6.636		-1.818		-2.568
24	Chargers	19.909	16.818		-3.091		-0.121
25	Steelers	9.455	6.091		-3.364		2.151
26	Bengals	23.546	19.909		-3.636		-0.090
27	Cardinals	20.182	15.636		-4.545		0.713
28	Panthers	25.364	20.818		-4.545		3.251
29	Bills	17.727	12.818		-4.909		4.583
30	Saints	21.818	16.727		-5.091		-1.803
31	Vikings	18.091	12.909		-5.182		-0.629
32	Eagles	22.364	15.455		-6.909		-2.651

Observations:

• I'm trying to remember a time when I remember seeing the Dolphins not only overrated, but overrated by this much. Sure, they're exceeding expectations, but let's not get carried away, people.
• I will admit that the Lions, Buccaneers, and Giants have been playing well lately. But again, has it been that dominant?
• Texans are slowly coming back down to Earth (they're really not good).
• Raiders appear to be over-ranked by almost 3.5 spots. Are they for real and the models have yet to catch up? Or are they not quite that good? (I know we're talking about the difference between 6th and 3rd, still).
• If there's any consolation for Chargers fans, they may not be as bad as you may think.
• Sure, the Eagles lose 6 of their last 8 games and now they're a bottom-third team? Does it make a difference that they've had the toughest schedule of any team in that span?

Sources

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