SB Nation

John Crean | October 27, 2016

2016 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 8

The Best is Clearly in the West

All four teams in the AFC West won this week. With big statement wins by the San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos, many pundits are wondering: is the AFC West the best division in football?

My how things can change in just two weeks. Two weeks ago tonight, the San Diego Chargers surprised the nation by taking down the division-rival Denver Broncos. Then they headed into Atlanta, and when the team went into the locker room at halftime having just closed out the half in the most Chargers way. Then something crazy happened: the Chargers won the game. The rest of the country really began to notice that squad from San Diego.

With two big statement wins by the Chargers - the same Chargers that still are in the cellar of the AFC West - it has gotten a number of pundits to ask: is the AFC West the best division in the NFL this year? It sure seems that way so far, and the stats back up that assertion.

Notable Quotes

The Chargers' defense still has some problems, but pass rush is not one of them. Rookie defensive end Joey Bosa has recorded 4.0 total sacks in two of his three games and San Diego ranks in the top 10 in sacks and pressure percentage. They'll be chasing after the Broncos in Week 8.

To put the Chargers’ weekly fireworks show into context of the NFL season, imagine that you’re flipping through the dregs of Halloween movies all over TV right now (The Amityville Horror remake; The Omen 3; that two-hour virtual Xanax where Jon Bon Jovi plays a vampire hunter) ... and then you find The Shining. Despite only having three wins to show for it, San Diego is must-see television each week, amid a sea of unwatchable games.

Contrary to the standard of blowing the game in the 4th quarter this year, The Chargers tried to blow the game in the 2nd. Terrible special teams plays put the team in a precarious position. The defense looked good even though the secondary was gutted by injury and on routes by Julio Jones. Playing from behind in the 4th quarter should become part of the Chargers game plan from now on.

Division Averages

Division Week 7 Average Week 8 Average Difference
AFC West 13.033 10.402 2.631
NFC East 11.565 11.109 0.456
NFC North 14.989 14.348 0.641
AFC East 15.250 14.978 0.272
NFC West 16.337 17.478 -1.141
NFC South 19.304 19.783 -0.479
AFC North 19.337 20.489 -1.152
AFC South 22.185 23.413 -1.228

Stock Rising

Team Week 7 Average Week 8 Average Difference
PHI 11.360 7.231 4.129
DEN 8.000 4.527 3.473
MIA 24.455 21.121 3.334
SDG 19.227 16.152 3.075
IND 25.019 22.038 2.981

Stock Falling

Team Week 7 Average Week 8 Average Difference
BUF 5.936 10.367 -4.431
BAL 18.057 22.258 -4.201
STL 20.803 24.235 -3.432
HOU 16.723 19.845 -3.122
TEN 20.337 23.307 -2.970

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit PFF AP Average Change in Value
1 Patriots 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.750 Rising
2 Cowboys 4 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 5 3 2 2 2.667 1.083 Rising
3 Vikings 5 5 3 5 3 3 2 3 2 2 6 5 3.667 -2.334 Falling
4 Seahawks 2 3 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3.667 -0.250 Falling
5 Broncos 3 4 6 2 4 6 5 5 4 5 5 4 4.417 2.583 Rising
6 Packers 6 6 4 6 11 5 6 6 14 8 9 8 7.417 1.500 Rising
7 Chiefs 9 8 7 10 6 9 9 7 7 11 10 7 8.333 2.667 Rising
8 Falcons 10 7 8 7 13 7 10 12 6 7 8 10 8.750 -3.833 Falling
9 Eagles 12 12 10 12 8 13 7 9 8 6 4 6 8.917 4.166 Rising
10 Raiders 11 10 9 11 7 10 11 8 10 10 7 9 9.417 3.333 Rising
11 Steelers 8 9 14 8 14 8 12 10 9 9 17 11 10.750 -2.500 Falling
12 Cardinals 7 11 12 14 15 17 8 11 11 12 18 12 12.333 0.667 Rising
13 Lions 15 15 13 9 12 11 14 15 16 14 14 14 13.500 4.083 Rising
14 Bills 16 14 20 13 9 15 13 14 12 13 13 15 13.917 -5.500 Falling
15 Redskins 19 16 17 16 16 12 15 16 13 16 11 13 15.000 -5.083 Falling
16 Giants 18 13 15 17 20 14 16 17 17 17 16 16 16.333 0.167 Rising
17 Chargers 14 17 11 20 10 21 17 22 18 19 12 19 16.667 4.333 Rising
18 Bengals 13 19 18 15 17 19 19 18 15 15 20 18 17.167 3.083 Rising
19 Texans 17 18 22 18 21 16 18 13 21 18 22 17 18.417 -3.334 Falling
20 Buccaneers 20 24 21 25 18 18 21 19 24 20 23 22 21.250 2.833 Rising
21 Dolphins 26 22 19 23 19 20 22 23 20 23 19 20 21.333 4.667 Rising
22 Colts 24 20 16 19 23 22 24 21 26 24 26 21 22.167 3.416 Rising
23 Titans 23 23 24 22 24 23 25 25 23 27 15 25 23.250 -3.667 Falling
24 Ravens 21 21 27 27 29 24 23 20 19 21 24 24 23.333 -4.583 Falling
25 Rams 27 26 25 21 27 25 20 24 25 22 21 23 23.833 -3.500 Falling
26 Saints 25 27 23 24 22 26 26 26 22 25 25 26 24.750 -3.000 Falling
27 Panthers 22 28 29 28 25 27 28 29 28 26 27 27 27.000 -0.167 Falling
28 Jets 28 25 26 26 26 29 27 28 27 28 29 28 27.250 1.333 Rising
29 Jaguars 29 29 28 29 28 28 29 27 29 29 28 29 28.500 -2.667 Falling
30 Bears 30 30 30 30 30 31 31 30 30 30 30 30 30.167 -0.084 Falling
31 49ers 31 31 31 31 32 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 30.917 -0.084 Falling
32 Browns 32 32 32 32 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 31.917 -0.084 Falling

Observations:

  • The top 16 teams are split 10-to-6 in favor of NFC.
  • The Chargers just miss out in being one of those 6 teams. Though that means 3 of the 6 AFC teams in the top half of the league are in the AFC West.
  • The AFC South has no representatives in the top half of the rankings here. 3 AFC West, 2 AFC East, and 1 AFC North Team. In fact, the entire AFC West is ranked above the top AFC South team.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit PFF AP STD DEV Change in Value
1 Patriots 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 -0.433 Falling
2 Browns 32 32 32 32 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.276 -0.097 Falling
3 Bears 30 30 30 30 30 31 31 30 30 30 30 30 0.373 -0.120 Falling
4 49ers 31 31 31 31 32 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 0.493 -0.060 Falling
5 Jaguars 29 29 28 29 28 28 29 27 29 29 28 29 0.646 -1.126 Falling
6 Seahawks 2 3 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 0.850 0.210 Rising
7 Cowboys 4 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 5 3 2 2 0.943 0.114 Rising
8 Broncos 3 4 6 2 4 6 5 5 4 5 5 4 1.115 -0.299 Falling
9 Jets 28 25 26 26 26 29 27 28 27 28 29 28 1.233 -0.265 Falling
10 Vikings 5 5 3 5 3 3 2 3 2 2 6 5 1.374 0.750 Rising
11 Raiders 11 10 9 11 7 10 11 8 10 10 7 9 1.382 0.218 Rising
12 Chiefs 9 8 7 10 6 9 9 7 7 11 10 7 1.491 -1.396 Falling
13 Saints 25 27 23 24 22 26 26 26 22 25 25 26 1.588 0.000 No Change
14 Giants 18 13 15 17 20 14 16 17 17 17 16 16 1.748 -0.273 Falling
15 Panthers 22 28 29 28 25 27 28 29 28 26 27 27 1.871 0.299 Rising
16 Lions 15 15 13 9 12 11 14 15 16 14 14 14 1.893 -0.323 Falling
17 Bengals 13 19 18 15 17 19 19 18 15 15 20 18 2.075 -1.091 Falling
18 Dolphins 26 22 19 23 19 20 22 23 20 23 19 20 2.095 0.567 Rising
19 Falcons 10 7 8 7 13 7 10 12 6 7 8 10 2.126 1.486 Rising
20 Redskins 19 16 17 16 16 12 15 16 13 16 11 13 2.199 0.398 Rising
21 Buccaneers 20 24 21 25 18 18 21 19 24 20 23 22 2.278 -0.382 Falling
22 Rams 27 26 25 21 27 25 20 24 25 22 21 23 2.303 -0.946 Falling
23 Bills 16 14 20 13 9 15 13 14 12 13 13 15 2.499 0.793 Rising
24 Texans 17 18 22 18 21 16 18 13 21 18 22 17 2.564 -0.365 Falling
25 Packers 6 6 4 6 11 5 6 6 14 8 9 8 2.691 0.192 Rising
26 Eagles 12 12 10 12 8 13 7 9 8 6 4 6 2.783 0.219 Rising
27 Titans 23 23 24 22 24 23 25 25 23 27 15 25 2.803 0.271 Rising
28 Steelers 8 9 14 8 14 8 12 10 9 9 17 11 2.803 0.798 Rising
29 Colts 24 20 16 19 23 22 24 21 26 24 26 21 2.824 0.498 Rising
30 Ravens 21 21 27 27 29 24 23 20 19 21 24 24 2.981 0.149 Rising
31 Cardinals 7 11 12 14 15 17 8 11 11 12 18 12 3.118 0.958 Rising
32 Chargers 14 17 11 20 10 21 17 22 18 19 12 19 3.837 0.622 Rising

Observations:

  • No surprise to see the Chargers at the bottom of this list. Some pundits just aren't convinced about them, while others see them as a top-10 team, ranging anywhere from 10 to 22 (and everywhere in between).
  • Patriots a unanimous top pick (yawn).
  • Browns are one spot away from being the unanimous bottom pick for like the 30th year in a row.

Objective Average

Objective
FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI Average Change in Value
1 Patriots 7 1 1 3 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 2.182 0.818 Rising
2 Vikings 1 8 2 2 11 3 2 2 2 4 3 3.636 -1.272 Falling
3 Broncos 9 4 3 5 7 5 7 3 3 3 2 4.636 4.364 Rising
4 Eagles 4 11 8 1 4 1 3 7 4 9 9 5.546 4.090 Rising
5 Seahawks 2 3 7 9 6 11 6 5 5 2 7 5.727 -0.727 Falling
6 Cowboys 5 14 5 4 2 6 5 4 6 10 12 6.636 -1.090 Falling
7 Bills 3 5 6 20 1 4 4 10 10 7 5 6.818 -3.363 Falling
8 Cardinals 10 2 4 23 3 8 8 13 11 6 4 8.364 -0.637 Falling
9 Packers 8 9 11 6 10 13 13 9 8 8 6 9.182 2.454 Rising
10 Chiefs 14 7 10 10 13 12 10 6 7 5 14 9.818 0.182 Rising
11 Steelers 12 6 9 7 15 9 18 11 9 11 11 10.727 -2.818 Falling
12 Falcons 6 13 12 12 17 7 9 8 12 12 10 10.727 -1.363 Falling
13 Raiders 18 16 13 14 9 15 14 12 13 20 16 14.546 1.545 Rising
14 Chargers 13 15 14 21 20 10 11 16 18 21 13 15.636 1.819 Rising
15 Redskins 11 26 18 13 19 14 12 15 15 17 21 16.455 -0.819 Falling
16 Bengals 25 10 15 16 21 18 20 18 19 14 15 17.364 1.818 Rising
17 Giants 17 20 17 15 25 16 19 14 14 18 17 17.455 1.272 Rising
18 Panthers 24 12 16 29 14 21 25 25 26 13 8 19.364 -0.182 Falling
19 Lions 26 23 23 11 22 19 17 19 16 15 27 19.818 0.728 Rising
20 Dolphins 20 17 22 28 23 17 15 22 20 26 20 20.909 2.000 Rising
21 Ravens 15 18 20 19 16 22 23 27 24 25 24 21.182 -3.818 Falling
22 Saints 21 24 26 18 12 20 21 21 25 27 19 21.273 -0.818 Falling
23 Texans 30 21 21 8 27 26 29 17 17 16 22 21.273 -2.909 Falling
24 Colts 28 19 19 25 18 23 22 26 21 22 18 21.909 2.546 Rising
25 Titans 16 30 28 27 8 24 16 28 27 30 23 23.364 -2.273 Falling
26 Rams 22 22 25 22 28 27 26 23 22 23 31 24.636 -3.363 Falling
27 Buccaneers 29 27 24 26 24 25 27 20 23 24 25 24.909 2.909 Rising
28 Jets 32 25 27 17 30 28 31 24 28 19 26 26.091 1.455 Rising
29 Bears 19 29 30 30 26 30 24 30 30 28 28 27.636 0.000 No Change
30 Jaguars 23 28 29 24 31 32 28 29 29 31 30 28.546 -0.819 Falling
31 49ers 27 31 31 32 29 31 32 31 31 29 29 30.273 -1.364 Falling
32 Browns 31 32 32 31 32 29 30 32 32 32 32 31.364 -0.364 Falling

Observations:

  • I mean, I know the Broncos completely trounced the Texans, but to jump over 4 spots this week? Wow.
  • Chargers jumped almost 2 spots this week which is cool.
  • The top 16 of the league is an even 8-and-8 split between AFC and NFC teams.
  • Unlike the subjective list, all 4 AFC West teams are in the top half of the league on the objective list.
  • The Texans are the highest-ranked AFC South team ... at #23.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI STD DEV Change in Value
1 Browns 31 32 32 31 32 29 30 32 32 32 32 0.979 -0.369 Falling
2 49ers 27 31 31 32 29 31 32 31 31 29 29 1.483 -0.247 Falling
3 Patriots 7 1 1 3 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 1.946 -0.310 Falling
4 Broncos 9 4 3 5 7 5 7 3 3 3 2 2.101 -2.704 Falling
5 Buccaneers 29 27 24 26 24 25 27 20 23 24 25 2.275 -0.515 Falling
6 Packers 8 9 11 6 10 13 13 9 8 8 6 2.289 -0.704 Falling
7 Seahawks 2 3 7 9 6 11 6 5 5 2 7 2.666 0.108 Rising
8 Jaguars 23 28 29 24 31 32 28 29 29 31 30 2.675 0.582 Rising
9 Raiders 18 16 13 14 9 15 14 12 13 20 16 2.840 -0.688 Falling
10 Rams 22 22 25 22 28 27 26 23 22 23 31 2.901 -0.539 Falling
11 Vikings 1 8 2 2 11 3 2 2 2 4 3 2.932 1.109 Rising
12 Falcons 6 13 12 12 17 7 9 8 12 12 10 2.988 0.025 Rising
13 Giants 17 20 17 15 25 16 19 14 14 18 17 2.996 -0.772 Falling
14 Chiefs 14 7 10 10 13 12 10 6 7 5 14 3.069 0.657 Rising
15 Colts 28 19 19 25 18 23 22 26 21 22 18 3.204 -0.473 Falling
16 Eagles 4 11 8 1 4 1 3 7 4 9 9 3.258 -1.828 Falling
17 Steelers 12 6 9 7 15 9 18 11 9 11 11 3.278 1.044 Rising
18 Bears 19 29 30 30 26 30 24 30 30 28 28 3.310 -1.463 Falling
19 Cowboys 5 14 5 4 2 6 5 4 6 10 12 3.549 0.434 Rising
20 Ravens 15 18 20 19 16 22 23 27 24 25 24 3.688 0.576 Rising
21 Dolphins 20 17 22 28 23 17 15 22 20 26 20 3.704 0.675 Rising
22 Chargers 13 15 14 21 20 10 11 16 18 21 13 3.724 -0.590 Falling
23 Bengals 25 10 15 16 21 18 20 18 19 14 15 3.820 -0.525 Falling
24 Saints 21 24 26 18 12 20 21 21 25 27 19 4.047 0.084 Rising
25 Redskins 11 26 18 13 19 14 12 15 15 17 21 4.186 -0.412 Falling
26 Jets 32 25 27 17 30 28 31 24 28 19 26 4.481 0.804 Rising
27 Lions 26 23 23 11 22 19 17 19 16 15 27 4.668 1.247 Rising
28 Bills 3 5 6 20 1 4 4 10 10 7 5 4.914 3.477 Rising
29 Cardinals 10 2 4 23 3 8 8 13 11 6 4 5.709 0.502 Rising
30 Texans 30 21 21 8 27 26 29 17 17 16 22 6.268 -0.677 Falling
31 Panthers 24 12 16 29 14 21 25 25 26 13 8 6.664 0.414 Rising
32 Titans 16 30 28 27 8 24 16 28 27 30 23 6.759 -0.570 Falling

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Average Change in Value
1 Patriots 1.000 2.182 1.591 0.784 Rising
2 Vikings 3.667 3.636 3.652 -1.804 Falling
3 Broncos 4.417 4.636 4.527 3.473 Rising
4 Cowboys 2.667 6.636 4.652 -0.004 Falling
5 Seahawks 3.667 5.727 4.697 -0.489 Falling
6 Eagles 8.917 5.546 7.231 4.129 Rising
7 Packers 7.417 9.182 8.299 1.978 Rising
8 Chiefs 8.333 9.818 9.076 1.424 Rising
9 Falcons 8.750 10.727 9.739 -2.599 Falling
10 Cardinals 12.333 8.364 10.348 0.016 Rising
11 Bills 13.917 6.818 10.367 -4.431 Falling
12 Steelers 10.750 10.727 10.739 -2.659 Falling
13 Raiders 9.417 14.546 11.981 2.439 Rising
14 Redskins 15.000 16.455 15.727 -2.950 Falling
15 Chargers 16.667 15.636 16.152 3.075 Rising
16 Lions 13.500 19.818 16.659 2.405 Rising
17 Giants 16.333 17.455 16.894 0.720 Rising
18 Bengals 17.167 17.364 17.265 2.451 Rising
19 Texans 18.417 21.273 19.845 -3.122 Falling
20 Dolphins 21.333 20.909 21.121 3.334 Rising
21 Colts 22.167 21.909 22.038 2.981 Rising
22 Ravens 23.333 21.182 22.258 -4.201 Falling
23 Saints 24.750 21.273 23.011 -1.909 Falling
24 Buccaneers 21.250 24.909 23.080 2.871 Rising
25 Panthers 27.000 19.364 23.182 -0.174 Falling
26 Titans 23.250 23.364 23.307 -2.970 Falling
27 Rams 23.833 24.636 24.235 -3.432 Falling
28 Jets 27.250 26.091 26.670 1.394 Rising
29 Jaguars 28.500 28.546 28.523 -1.743 Falling
30 Bears 30.167 27.636 28.902 -0.042 Falling
31 49ers 30.917 30.273 30.595 -0.724 Falling
32 Browns 31.917 31.364 31.640 -0.223 Falling

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg STD DEV Change in Value
1 Browns 31.917 31.364 0.758 -0.298 Falling
2 49ers 30.917 30.273 1.132 -0.454 Falling
3 Patriots 1.000 2.182 1.469 -0.241 Falling
4 Broncos 4.417 4.636 1.665 -1.952 Falling
5 Jaguars 28.500 28.546 1.908 -0.243 Falling
6 Seahawks 3.667 5.727 2.199 0.207 Rising
7 Vikings 3.667 3.636 2.258 0.824 Rising
8 Giants 16.333 17.455 2.490 -0.697 Falling
9 Chiefs 8.333 9.818 2.493 -0.224 Falling
10 Bears 30.167 27.636 2.629 -0.909 Falling
11 Rams 23.833 24.636 2.637 -0.738 Falling
12 Packers 7.417 9.182 2.658 -0.406 Falling
13 Falcons 8.750 10.727 2.757 -0.300 Falling
14 Buccaneers 21.250 24.909 2.919 -0.382 Falling
15 Dolphins 21.333 20.909 2.983 0.157 Rising
16 Colts 22.167 21.909 3.014 -0.086 Falling
17 Bengals 17.167 17.364 3.039 -0.774 Falling
18 Steelers 10.750 10.727 3.039 0.914 Rising
19 Cowboys 2.667 6.636 3.228 0.819 Rising
20 Jets 27.250 26.091 3.276 0.464 Rising
21 Raiders 9.417 14.546 3.379 0.306 Rising
22 Redskins 15.000 16.455 3.381 -1.087 Falling
23 Eagles 8.917 5.546 3.457 -0.875 Falling
24 Saints 24.750 21.273 3.488 0.448 Rising
25 Ravens 23.333 21.182 3.507 0.458 Rising
26 Chargers 16.667 15.636 3.818 -0.357 Falling
27 Lions 13.500 19.818 4.717 1.500 Rising
28 Texans 18.417 21.273 4.925 -0.573 Falling
29 Cardinals 12.333 8.364 4.959 0.233 Rising
30 Titans 23.250 23.364 5.094 -0.347 Falling
31 Bills 13.917 6.818 5.233 2.292 Rising
32 Panthers 27.000 19.364 6.133 0.253 Rising

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Diff. in Avg Change in Value
1 Lions 13.500 19.818 6.318 3.356 Rising
2 Raiders 9.417 14.546 5.129 1.788 Rising
3 Cowboys 2.667 6.636 3.970 2.174 Rising
4 Buccaneers 21.250 24.909 3.659 -0.076 Rising
5 Texans 18.417 21.273 2.856 -0.424 Rising
6 Seahawks 3.667 5.727 2.061 0.478 Rising
7 Falcons 8.750 10.727 1.977 -2.470 Rising
8 Packers 7.417 9.182 1.765 -0.955 Rising
9 Chiefs 8.333 9.818 1.485 2.485 Rising
10 Redskins 15.000 16.455 1.455 -4.265 Rising
11 Patriots 1.000 2.182 1.182 -0.068 Rising
12 Giants 16.333 17.455 1.121 -1.106 Rising
13 Rams 23.833 24.636 0.803 -0.136 Rising
14 Broncos 4.417 4.636 0.220 -1.780 Rising
15 Bengals 17.167 17.364 0.197 1.265 Rising
16 Titans 23.250 23.364 0.114 -1.394 Rising
17 Jaguars 28.500 28.546 0.046 -1.848 Rising
18 Steelers 10.750 10.727 -0.023 0.318 Rising
19 Vikings 3.667 3.636 -0.030 -1.060 Rising
20 Colts 22.167 21.909 -0.258 0.871 Rising
21 Dolphins 21.333 20.909 -0.424 2.667 Rising
22 Browns 31.917 31.364 -0.553 0.280 Rising
23 49ers 30.917 30.273 -0.644 1.280 Rising
24 Chargers 16.667 15.636 -1.030 2.516 Rising
25 Jets 27.250 26.091 -1.159 -0.121 Rising
26 Ravens 23.333 21.182 -2.152 -0.766 Rising
27 Bears 30.167 27.636 -2.530 -0.083 Rising
28 Eagles 8.917 5.546 -3.371 0.076 Rising
29 Saints 24.750 21.273 -3.477 -2.181 Rising
30 Cardinals 12.333 8.364 -3.970 1.303 Rising
31 Bills 13.917 6.818 -7.099 -2.137 Rising
32 Panthers 27.000 19.364 -7.636 0.016 Rising

Sources

Subjective Objective
ESPN Football Outsiders
Fox Team Rankings
CBS Sagarin
USA Today BeatGraphs
Sports Illustrated Aikman Efficiency
ProFootballTalk Pro Football Reference
NFL.com Cold Hard Football Facts
SportingNews Massey
SB Nation ARGH
Reddit Five Thirty Eight
ProFootballFocus Football Power Index
Associated Press

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