2016 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 7

Stop me if you've heard this one before: the New England Patriots just may be the best team in the NFL this year.

There will come a time &emdash; whether it's in the next couple of years when Brady retires, or later &emdash; that the New England Patriots will no longer be that great and the will fade into mediocrity. What will the national sports media do at that point? For the last 15 years, the Patriots have been that safety blanket, the sure thing. For 15 years you could expect the New England Patriots to be good, and that expectation would prove correct each of those 15 years. There was even that year that Tom Brady's leg fell off and Matt Cassel still led the team to an 11-and-5 record (but thankfully we got a reprieve from the Patriots in the playoffs).

Thankfully they have already lost a game or else we'd be subject to "16-0 again?" talk for the rest of the season until somebody (maybe the Denver Broncos?) invariably does beat them. I get that they really are a great team, well-built and well-coached. But the AFC is boring year-in and year-out; the same perennial competitors: Patriots, Steelers, Broncos, Colts. Look at the NFC, a bunch of new up-and-coming rising teams: Atlanta! Minnesota! Dallas! Carolina had their shot at the limelight last year, and now it's time to return to the basement from whence they came.

We should be so lucky to have the Patriots get the same treatment.

Notable Quotes

Did you know this is AFC's highest-scoring team? If Bolts can split upcoming road games (Atlanta and Denver), they could go on hot streak.

Mike McCoy looked like he was about to vomit or pass out (or both at the same time, college dorm-style) after the Broncos scored and then immediately recovered an onside kick late in Thursday night’s game, but his team finally was able to finish out a game in the fourth quarter and win. While the Chargers may wind up 5–11 or 6–10, absolutely no one on their schedule will be itching to play them.​

Poor Mike McCoy's hair looked like it was turning Michael McDonald silver right before our eyes. The epic collapses so far this season made me forget that the Chargers were a winning team in both 2013 and '14. Alas, a safety, a hard hit on Demaryius Thomas and the ability to overcome severe Martyball (conservative late-game play-calling) delivered a W for the hard-luck Bolts. It sure makes it easier to ask for a mere $1.1 billion. Well I didn't want to ask ya, Clark, you know ... could ya maybe spare a little ... extra cash?

Division Averages

Stock Rising

Stock Falling

7 of the 10 teams most on the move are in the AFC. Maybe I'm wrong to call the AFC "predictable"?

Subjective Average

We'll start off with the Subjective Average. These rankings are the ones that has actual people ranking the teams based on their gut feelings. You'll see in a moment that some of these sites may even just throw darts at a board, or have a chicken pecking at numbers.

I then take all those rankings and average them together, then sort the table based on the average ranking. This method evens out the peaks and valleys and allows us to get a more reliable "big picture" view of the perception of where teams rank in the league.

		Subjective
		ESPN	Fox	CBS	USA	SI	PFT	NFL	SN	SBN	Reddit	PFF	AP		Average		Change in Value
1	Vikings	2	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	3	1		1.333		0.334
2	Patriots	1	2	2	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	2		1.750		0.417
3	Seahawks	3	4	3	3	4	3	4	3	3	3	5	3		3.417		2.333
4	Cowboys	4	3	4	5	3	4	3	4	5	4	2	4		3.750		4.000
5	Falcons	6	5	6	4	5	5	5	5	4	5	4	5		4.917		-0.334
6	Broncos	5	7	7	6	8	9	6	8	6	6	10	6		7.000		-1.917
7	Steelers	7	6	8	8	9	8	10	7	7	7	14	8		8.250		-3.500
8	Bills	8	8	11	9	6	10	7	11	10	8	6	7		8.417		4.583
9	Packers	10	9	5	7	13	7	9	6	13	10	7	11		8.917		-2.750
10	Redskins	9	12	10	10	10	6	12	12	9	12	8	9		9.917		4.666
11	Chiefs	11	11	9	11	7	12	11	10	8	13	19	10		11.000		3.500
12	Raiders	14	13	13	12	11	13	14	14	14	11	11	13		12.750		-3.500
13	Cardinals	13	10	16	15	12	14	8	15	12	14	13	14		13.000		1.667
14	Eagles	15	15	12	18	15	15	13	13	11	9	9	12		13.083		-4.416
15	Texans	17	14	14	16	17	11	15	9	17	15	21	15		15.083		0.667
16	Giants	12	16	15	17	21	17	18	16	16	16	18	16		16.500		3.500
17	Lions	21	18	19	13	14	18	16	18	19	18	20	17		17.583		3.500
18	Ravens	18	19	23	19	24	19	19	17	18	19	12	18		18.750		-4.917
19	Titans	22	17	20	20	18	16	22	20	20	24	15	21		19.583		2.834
20	Bengals	16	21	24	25	19	21	20	21	15	17	25	19		20.250		-6.000
21	Rams	26	22	22	14	23	22	17	19	23	20	16	20		20.333		-3.500
22	Chargers	19	20	17	22	16	26	24	26	21	22	17	22		21.000		5.250
23	Saints	20	23	18	21	20	23	23	23	22	23	22	23		21.750		2.167
24	Buccaneers	28	26	25	26	22	20	21	22	27	21	27	24		24.083		-1.166
25	Colts	24	24	21	24	29	28	27	25	29	25	24	27		25.583		-2.166
26	Jaguars	29	28	26	23	25	24	25	24	25	27	26	28		25.833		0.417
27	Dolphins	27	25	27	28	27	25	26	27	24	28	23	25		26.000		3.583
28	Panthers	23	27	29	27	26	27	29	28	26	26	28	26		26.833		-4.750
29	Jets	25	29	28	29	28	29	28	29	28	29	32	29		28.583		-2.333
30	Bears	30	30	30	30	30	31	31	30	30	30	29	30		30.083		-1.833
31	49ers	31	31	31	31	32	30	30	31	31	31	30	31		30.833		-0.250
32	Browns	32	32	32	32	31	32	32	32	32	32	31	32		31.833		-0.083

Observations:

• It always amuses me when teams move during their bye week. The Vikings just had their bye and moved even closer to a consensus top pick.
• Patriots top in the AFC ... yawn.
• With the Eagles fading fast, the Cowboys have risen to fill that void. The Cowboys head to Minnesota to take on the Vikings on December 1st; this is shaping up to be a fanstatic game.
• Bengals are fading fast.
• Colts fading too. What a train wreck the AFC South is.
• Chargers beat a formidable opponent in the Broncos, and are rightfully rewarded.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Put simply, Standard Deviation is a tool in statistics to measure how much variance there is in a set of numbers. To put more simply: I use it to look at who's ranked the most- and least-consistently. In Standard Deviation, the lower the number, the more consistent the values in the set.

For our purposes, this means the lower the Standard Deviation, the more consistent the rankings. The opposite is true too: the higher the number, the less consistent the rankings.

This table is sorted by most-consistently ranked to least-consistently ranked.

		Subjective
		ESPN	Fox	CBS	USA	SI	PFT	NFL	SN	SBN	Reddit	PFF	AP		STD DEV		Change in Value
1	Browns	32	32	32	32	31	32	32	32	32	32	31	32		0.373		-0.222
2	Patriots	1	2	2	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	2		0.433		-0.254
3	Bears	30	30	30	30	30	31	31	30	30	30	29	30		0.493		-3.296
4	49ers	31	31	31	31	32	30	30	31	31	31	30	31		0.553		-0.401
5	Vikings	2	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	3	1		0.624		-1.305
6	Seahawks	3	4	3	3	4	3	4	3	3	3	5	3		0.640		-1.525
7	Falcons	6	5	6	4	5	5	5	5	4	5	4	5		0.640		-1.114
8	Cowboys	4	3	4	5	3	4	3	4	5	4	2	4		0.829		-0.810
9	Raiders	14	13	13	12	11	13	14	14	14	11	11	13		1.164		-0.135
10	Broncos	5	7	7	6	8	9	6	8	6	6	10	6		1.414		0.460
11	Jets	25	29	28	29	28	29	28	29	28	29	32	29		1.498		-1.023
12	Dolphins	27	25	27	28	27	25	26	27	24	28	23	25		1.528		0.490
13	Panthers	23	27	29	27	26	27	29	28	26	26	28	26		1.572		-2.090
14	Saints	20	23	18	21	20	23	23	23	22	23	22	23		1.588		-0.702
15	Bills	8	8	11	9	6	10	7	11	10	8	6	7		1.706		-0.026
16	Jaguars	29	28	26	23	25	24	25	24	25	27	26	28		1.772		-0.013
17	Redskins	9	12	10	10	10	6	12	12	9	12	8	9		1.801		-1.128
18	Steelers	7	6	8	8	9	8	10	7	7	7	14	8		2.005		-0.273
19	Giants	12	16	15	17	21	17	18	16	16	16	18	16		2.021		-0.324
20	Cardinals	13	10	16	15	12	14	8	15	12	14	13	14		2.160		-0.232
21	Lions	21	18	19	13	14	18	16	18	19	18	20	17		2.216		0.510
22	Colts	24	24	21	24	29	28	27	25	29	25	24	27		2.326		0.110
23	Packers	10	9	5	7	13	7	9	6	13	10	7	11		2.499		0.345
24	Titans	22	17	20	20	18	16	22	20	20	24	15	21		2.532		-0.397
25	Eagles	15	15	12	18	15	15	13	13	11	9	9	12		2.564		0.391
26	Buccaneers	28	26	25	26	22	20	21	22	27	21	27	24		2.660		-0.031
27	Ravens	18	19	23	19	24	19	19	17	18	19	12	18		2.832		-0.430
28	Chiefs	11	11	9	11	7	12	11	10	8	13	19	10		2.887		0.866
29	Texans	17	14	14	16	17	11	15	9	17	15	21	15		2.929		-0.860
30	Bengals	16	21	24	25	19	21	20	21	15	17	25	19		3.166		0.000
31	Chargers	19	20	17	22	16	26	24	26	21	22	17	22		3.215		0.534
32	Rams	26	22	22	14	23	22	17	19	23	20	16	20		3.249		1.019

Observations:

• One step closer to the Browns being a unanimous #32.
• Patriots are more of a consensus #2-pick than the Vikings are a #1, thanks to PFF ranking the Vikings 3rd.
• Good consensus on the Raiders being ~13.
• Don't worry rankers, we all have trouble figuring the Chargers out.

Objective Average

I call these rankings the "Objective" rankings because unlike the rankings above, these are rankings based on statistical models of some sort. I use the term "Objective" loosely here because there is still some inherent bias in how the various models are constructed. Each ranking site has their own criteria in what they feel is success in the NFL.

All that said, these rankings are more objective as they remove perception and bias and produce rankings based on how well teams actually play, not how they're perceived to play.

		Objective
		FO	TR	SAG	BG	Aikman	PFR	CHFF	Massey	ARGH	538	FPI		Average		Change in Value
1	Vikings	2	6	2	1	6	3	1	1	1	1	2		2.364		0.272
2	Patriots	5	1	1	3	9	4	2	2	2	3	1		3.000		3.091
3	Bills	3	4	3	2	1	2	3	5	5	6	4		3.455		3.909
4	Seahawks	1	3	7	6	4	10	6	4	4	2	8		5.000		1.546
5	Cowboys	4	13	4	5	2	6	5	3	3	10	6		5.546		4.545
6	Cardinals	8	2	5	21	3	5	7	12	11	8	3		7.727		3.637
7	Steelers	11	5	6	8	8	7	13	9	6	7	7		7.909		-4.454
8	Broncos	10	8	8	23	10	9	9	6	7	4	5		9.000		-3.818
9	Falcons	6	10	12	7	17	8	8	7	8	9	11		9.364		-1.728
10	Eagles	7	14	9	20	5	1	4	13	9	12	12		9.636		-3.909
11	Chiefs	12	7	10	9	12	12	10	8	12	5	13		10.000		4.273
12	Packers	9	9	11	11	15	14	19	10	10	11	9		11.636		-4.545
13	Redskins	14	26	18	12	19	11	12	11	13	15	21		15.636		2.637
14	Raiders	18	16	17	10	11	17	16	15	15	24	18		16.091		-4.182
15	Ravens	15	17	14	17	14	16	15	23	17	20	23		17.364		-0.182
16	Chargers	13	15	16	22	22	13	11	22	22	22	14		17.455		2.545
17	Texans	30	18	19	4	21	25	27	14	14	14	16		18.364		1.636
18	Giants	17	23	20	13	26	15	22	16	16	21	17		18.727		0.364
19	Bengals	24	11	15	24	24	20	24	18	20	16	15		19.182		-3.182
20	Panthers	23	12	13	29	16	21	26	24	24	13	10		19.182		-2.364
21	Saints	20	24	25	15	13	24	17	20	23	25	19		20.455		1.454
22	Lions	26	22	23	16	23	18	18	19	18	17	26		20.546		0.272
23	Titans	16	30	29	14	7	22	14	26	21	31	22		21.091		0.091
24	Rams	22	19	21	18	25	23	23	17	19	18	29		21.273		0.454
25	Dolphins	21	20	24	19	27	19	20	27	25	26	24		22.909		5.909
26	Colts	27	21	22	30	18	26	28	28	26	23	20		24.455		-2.819
27	Jets	32	25	27	27	32	28	32	25	29	19	27		27.546		-2.273
28	Bears	19	29	31	32	20	31	21	31	31	29	30		27.636		-1.272
29	Jaguars	25	27	26	26	29	32	25	29	28	30	28		27.727		-0.181
30	Buccaneers	28	28	28	25	30	30	31	21	27	27	31		27.818		-0.182
31	49ers	29	31	30	31	28	27	29	30	30	28	25		28.909		-2.273
32	Browns	31	32	32	28	31	29	30	32	32	32	32		31.000		0.727

Observations:

• The 2016 Buffalo Bills: the best team you're not watching.
• My rant above against the Patriots was not at all to suggest they aren't one of the best teams in the NFL; the stats back up that assertion. I'm just tired of the Patriots.
• Many had written the Cowboys off after Romo went down. Now they could be shopping Romo to other teams once he's healthy.
• A lot of ratings have the Chargers ranked #22; in fact almost half of the ratings have them at #22.

Objective Standard Deviation

		Objective
		FO	TR	SAG	BG	Aikman	PFR	CHFF	Massey	ARGH	538	FPI		STD DEV		Change in Value
1	Browns	31	32	32	28	31	29	30	32	32	32	32		1.348		0.903
2	Bills	3	4	3	2	1	2	3	5	5	6	4		1.437		-0.283
3	49ers	29	31	30	31	28	27	29	30	30	28	25		1.730		-1.689
4	Vikings	2	6	2	1	6	3	1	1	1	1	2		1.823		-0.321
5	Jaguars	25	27	26	26	29	32	25	29	28	30	28		2.093		-0.582
6	Steelers	11	5	6	8	8	7	13	9	6	7	7		2.234		0.929
7	Patriots	5	1	1	3	9	4	2	2	2	3	1		2.256		-2.463
8	Chiefs	12	7	10	9	12	12	10	8	12	5	13		2.412		-1.959
9	Seahawks	1	3	7	6	4	10	6	4	4	2	8		2.558		-1.405
10	Buccaneers	28	28	28	25	30	30	31	21	27	27	31		2.790		-0.493
11	Falcons	6	10	12	7	17	8	8	7	8	9	11		2.963		-0.951
12	Packers	9	9	11	11	15	14	19	10	10	11	9		2.993		0.087
13	Dolphins	21	20	24	19	27	19	20	27	25	26	24		3.029		0.701
14	Ravens	15	17	14	17	14	16	15	23	17	20	23		3.112		-1.148
15	Cowboys	4	13	4	5	2	6	5	3	3	10	6		3.115		-0.032
16	Lions	26	22	23	16	23	18	18	19	18	17	26		3.421		-0.483
17	Rams	22	19	21	18	25	23	23	17	19	18	29		3.440		-1.516
18	Raiders	18	16	17	10	11	17	16	15	15	24	18		3.528		-0.297
19	Jets	32	25	27	27	32	28	32	25	29	19	27		3.677		0.317
20	Colts	27	21	22	30	18	26	28	28	26	23	20		3.677		-0.485
21	Giants	17	23	20	13	26	15	22	16	16	21	17		3.768		0.769
22	Saints	20	24	25	15	13	24	17	20	23	25	19		3.963		0.259
23	Chargers	13	15	16	22	22	13	11	22	22	22	14		4.314		-1.671
24	Bengals	24	11	15	24	24	20	24	18	20	16	15		4.345		1.042
25	Redskins	14	26	18	12	19	11	12	11	13	15	21		4.598		-0.712
26	Bears	19	29	31	32	20	31	21	31	31	29	30		4.773		1.381
27	Broncos	10	8	8	23	10	9	9	6	7	4	5		4.805		1.795
28	Eagles	7	14	9	20	5	1	4	13	9	12	12		5.086		1.176
29	Cardinals	8	2	5	21	3	5	7	12	11	8	3		5.207		0.492
30	Panthers	23	12	13	29	16	21	26	24	24	13	10		6.250		0.612
31	Texans	30	18	19	4	21	25	27	14	14	14	16		6.945		0.915
32	Titans	16	30	29	14	7	22	14	26	21	31	22		7.329		0.671

Observations:

• So the formulas and models mostly agree about the Browns being bad.
• And just about as much consenus about the Bills being good.
• Wow, the Titans are all over the map. Anywhere from 7th down to 31st.
• Texans with an even bigger spread of 4th to 30th.

Overall Average

Now let's compare the two sets of data. We'll start with the "Overall Average" chart. This takes the Subjective Average and the Objective Average, and then averages those two numbers. This way it gives equal weight to both averages so that even though Subjective Average has a larger sample size, it doesn't drown out the Objective Average.

		Subj vs Obj
		Subj Avg	Obj Avg		Average		Change in Value
1	Vikings	1.333	2.364		1.848		0.304
2	Patriots	1.750	3.000		2.375		1.754
3	Seahawks	3.417	5.000		4.208		1.940
4	Cowboys	3.750	5.546		4.648		4.272
5	Bills	8.417	3.455		5.936		4.246
6	Falcons	4.917	9.364		7.140		-1.030
7	Broncos	7.000	9.000		8.000		-2.867
8	Steelers	8.250	7.909		8.080		-3.978
9	Packers	8.917	11.636		10.277		-3.648
10	Cardinals	13.000	7.727		10.364		2.651
11	Chiefs	11.000	10.000		10.500		3.886
12	Eagles	13.083	9.636		11.360		-4.163
13	Redskins	9.917	15.636		12.777		3.651
14	Raiders	12.750	16.091		14.420		-3.840
15	Texans	15.083	18.364		16.723		1.152
16	Giants	16.500	18.727		17.614		1.931
17	Ravens	18.750	17.364		18.057		-2.549
18	Lions	17.583	20.546		19.064		1.887
19	Chargers	21.000	17.455		19.227		3.898
20	Bengals	20.250	19.182		19.716		-4.591
21	Titans	19.583	21.091		20.337		1.462
22	Rams	20.333	21.273		20.803		-1.523
23	Saints	21.750	20.455		21.102		1.811
24	Panthers	26.833	19.182		23.008		-3.557
25	Dolphins	26.000	22.909		24.455		4.746
26	Colts	25.583	24.455		25.019		-2.492
27	Buccaneers	24.083	27.818		25.951		-0.674
28	Jaguars	25.833	27.727		26.780		0.118
29	Jets	28.583	27.546		28.064		-2.303
30	Bears	30.083	27.636		28.860		-1.553
31	49ers	30.833	28.909		29.871		-1.261
32	Browns	31.833	31.000		31.417		0.322

Observations:

• Between the two participants in Super Bowl 50, did anyone really expect the Panthers to be the team to appear in the bottom-third of the league this season?
• I want to make some crack about, "Vikings-Patriots Super Bowl: Book it!" But there are 10 games left in the regular season so we'll see how things shake out.
• Chargers rising more than the Broncos falling.

Overall Standard Deviation

The Overall Standard Deviation does not average anything out, it just takes the Standard Deviation across all the rankings. Yes this will even things out slightly, but it goes to show which teams have consensus across the board.

		Subj vs Obj
		Subj Avg	Obj Avg		STD DEV		Change in Value
1	Browns	31.833	31.000		1.056		0.527
2	Vikings	1.333	2.364		1.434		-0.658
3	49ers	30.833	28.909		1.586		-1.569
4	Patriots	1.750	3.000		1.710		-2.129
5	Seahawks	3.417	5.000		1.992		-1.188
6	Steelers	8.250	7.909		2.125		0.140
7	Jaguars	25.833	27.727		2.151		-0.195
8	Cowboys	3.750	5.546		2.409		-0.331
9	Chiefs	11.000	10.000		2.717		-0.642
10	Jets	28.583	27.546		2.812		-0.180
11	Dolphins	26.000	22.909		2.826		1.009
12	Bills	8.417	3.455		2.941		-0.362
13	Saints	21.750	20.455		3.040		-0.170
14	Ravens	18.750	17.364		3.049		-1.078
15	Falcons	4.917	9.364		3.057		-0.298
16	Packers	8.917	11.636		3.064		0.481
17	Raiders	12.750	16.091		3.073		-0.032
18	Colts	25.583	24.455		3.100		-0.311
19	Giants	16.500	18.727		3.187		0.471
20	Lions	17.583	20.546		3.217		0.246
21	Buccaneers	24.083	27.818		3.301		-0.506
22	Rams	20.333	21.273		3.375		-1.133
23	Bears	30.083	27.636		3.538		-0.188
24	Broncos	7.000	9.000		3.617		1.424
25	Bengals	20.250	19.182		3.813		0.465
26	Chargers	21.000	17.455		4.175		-1.359
27	Eagles	13.083	9.636		4.332		0.878
28	Redskins	9.917	15.636		4.468		-0.153
29	Cardinals	13.000	7.727		4.726		0.684
30	Titans	19.583	21.091		5.441		0.336
31	Texans	15.083	18.364		5.498		0.077
32	Panthers	26.833	19.182		5.880		0.484

Difference in Averages

This compares the Subjective average ranking with the Objective average ranking. This tells us just how far off people are from the formulas. A positive number means people think they will be or are better than the stats indicate, a negative number means the math thinks they're better than what people think. The closer to 0 this number is, the more in agreement the Subjective and Objective rankings are.

Generally speaking, the Subjective Rankings tend to be more reactionary to a team's performance than the mathematical models are. You'll often end up with major peaks and valleys for a team in the Subjective rankings, where the Objective rankings are more steady.

		Subj vs Obj
		Subj Avg	Obj Avg		Diff. in Avg		Change in Value
1	Redskins	9.917	15.636		5.720		2.031
2	Falcons	4.917	9.364		4.447		1.394
3	Buccaneers	24.083	27.818		3.735		-0.985
4	Raiders	12.750	16.091		3.341		0.682
5	Texans	15.083	18.364		3.280		-0.970
6	Lions	17.583	20.546		2.962		3.227
7	Packers	8.917	11.636		2.720		1.796
8	Giants	16.500	18.727		2.227		3.136
9	Broncos	7.000	9.000		2.000		1.901
10	Jaguars	25.833	27.727		1.894		0.598
11	Cowboys	3.750	5.546		1.796		-0.545
12	Seahawks	3.417	5.000		1.583		0.787
13	Titans	19.583	21.091		1.508		2.743
14	Patriots	1.750	3.000		1.250		-2.674
15	Vikings	1.333	2.364		1.030		0.060
16	Rams	20.333	21.273		0.939		-3.955
17	Steelers	8.250	7.909		-0.341		0.955
18	Browns	31.833	31.000		-0.833		-0.810
19	Chiefs	11.000	10.000		-1.000		-0.773
20	Jets	28.583	27.546		-1.038		-0.061
21	Bengals	20.250	19.182		-1.068		-2.818
22	Colts	25.583	24.455		-1.129		0.651
23	Saints	21.750	20.455		-1.296		0.712
24	Ravens	18.750	17.364		-1.386		-4.735
25	49ers	30.833	28.909		-1.924		2.023
26	Bears	30.083	27.636		-2.447		-0.561
27	Dolphins	26.000	22.909		-3.091		-2.326
28	Eagles	13.083	9.636		-3.447		-0.508
29	Chargers	21.000	17.455		-3.546		2.704
30	Bills	8.417	3.455		-4.962		0.674
31	Cardinals	13.000	7.727		-5.273		-1.970
32	Panthers	26.833	19.182		-7.652		-2.387

Observations:

• NFC Teams bookending this list.
• A lot of excitement surrounding Washington; is it warranted or will they fade out?
• People underestimating how good the Bills have been.
• Also, Panthers and Cardinals unfairly being punished this year; expectations too high?

Sources

About the Author

Follow @creanium