SB Nation

John Crean | October 13, 2016

2016 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 6

A New Guard has arrived

The Vikings and Eagles are here, and they're for real.

Once again, it took me two weeks to get the rankings out. These take a lot of time for me to do and I had trouble getting them out last week. But, I was able to dedicate the time this week, so here they are!

Heading into this 2016 NFL season, the conventional wisdom was that the Panthers and Cardinals were favorites to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LI. My, how things change once games are being played. Understood that significant injuries to a team's quarterback will hamper even the best of teams, but both teams have been flawed deep beyond their second-string quarterback play.

With the Cardinals and Panthers hampered, the door has opened for new teams to take the torch, and we have a new guard in the NFC. Gone are the Panthers, Cardinals, Giants and Saints. In their place we have the likeliest candidates in the Vikings, Eagles, Falcons, and Cowboys; just like everyone predicted.

Notable Quotes

Sent this tweet out on Sunday and stand behind it fully. It absolutely boggles my mind that people can consider Joe Flacco or Eli Manning to be better than Philip Rivers simply because of a ring (or two). This is pro football, not effing Mordor. Rivers has been consistently outstanding for the bulk of his career, and while those other guys have displayed moments of brilliance, they've also been consistently mediocre. Rivers single-handedly keeps the Chargers afloat while everything around him crumbles. Would anyone have watched "The Hunt for Red October" if Sean Connery wasn't in it -- and it only featured Alec Baldwin with slicked-back hair working with the Jurassic Park guy in a big stolen sub? Rivers' hold on being an all-timer is a helluva lot firmer than his holder's -- tell you that right now. Alright, I'm done. Rant over.

The Chargers keep finding ways to lose under Mike McCoy, dropping 11 of their past 12 games, all of which were decided by a touchdown or less. McCoy's Chargers have allowed an NFL-worst 103 points in the second half/overtime this season (39 points in the first half).

Having a hard time moving the Chargers down in the rankings because they have a dynamic offense (No. 2 in points) and are extremely competitive each week. Also can’t move them up because their fourth-quarter performances come with all the composure of a stressed-out Nicolas Cage.

Division Averages

Division Week 4 Average Week 6 Average Difference
NFC East 15.250 13.011 2.239
AFC West 11.659 13.326 -1.667
NFC North 15.818 14.261 1.557
AFC North 15.750 16.598 -0.848
NFC West 15.841 16.772 -0.931
AFC East 15.284 17.337 -2.053
NFC South 19.568 18.435 1.133
AFC South 22.830 22.261 0.569

Stock Rising

Team Week 4 Average Week 6 Average Difference
ATL 16.545 6.110 10.435
BUF 17.955 10.182 7.773
WAS 23.864 16.428 7.436
DAL 14.500 8.920 5.580
OAK 15.773 10.580 5.193

Stock Falling

Team Week 4 Average Week 6 Average Difference
CAR 9.000 19.451 -10.451
KC 7.500 14.386 -6.886
NYJ 19.000 25.761 -6.761
MIA 22.455 29.201 -6.746
BAL 10.455 15.508 -5.053

Subjective Average

We'll start off with the Subjective Average. These rankings are the ones that has actual people ranking the teams based on their gut feelings. You'll see in a moment that some of these sites may even just throw darts at a board, or have a chicken pecking at numbers.

I then take all those rankings and average them together, then sort the table based on the average ranking. This method evens out the peaks and valleys and allows us to get a more reliable "big picture" view of the perception of where teams rank in the league.

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit PFF AP Average Change in Value
1 Vikings 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 1 1.667 1.424 Rising
2 Patriots 2 4 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2.167 -0.894 Falling
3 Falcons 6 6 4 3 3 6 4 6 3 6 1 7 4.583 10.872 Rising
4 Steelers 3 2 6 4 4 5 6 4 6 3 11 3 4.750 2.432 Rising
5 Broncos 4 5 5 5 5 7 5 7 4 4 5 5 5.083 -3.356 Falling
6 Seahawks 5 9 7 7 7 4 3 3 5 5 10 4 5.750 0.432 Rising
7 Packers 9 3 3 6 8 3 7 5 8 7 9 6 6.167 -0.803 Falling
8 Cowboys 7 7 8 10 6 10 8 8 7 9 4 9 7.750 5.159 Rising
9 Eagles 11 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 8 2 8 8.667 -3.394 Falling
10 Raiders 12 8 10 8 9 8 10 10 9 10 7 10 9.250 5.023 Rising
11 Bills 16 11 14 13 11 14 11 15 15 12 13 11 13.000 9.364 Rising
12 Ravens 14 14 16 12 19 13 18 11 14 16 6 13 13.833 -5.287 Falling
13 Bengals 8 13 18 19 13 16 14 18 11 11 14 16 14.250 -0.795 Falling
14 Chiefs 15 15 12 17 12 15 17 13 13 15 18 12 14.500 -4.864 Falling
15 Redskins 22 17 13 11 14 11 15 14 12 17 15 14 14.583 6.781 Rising
16 Cardinals 10 12 17 15 15 18 13 17 16 14 12 17 14.667 -2.576 Falling
17 Texans 18 16 11 16 17 12 16 12 17 13 26 15 15.750 -2.568 Falling
18 Rams 19 18 15 14 16 17 12 16 19 18 20 18 16.833 3.076 Rising
19 Giants 17 21 19 18 26 22 20 19 18 19 22 19 20.000 -5.636 Falling
20 Lions 20 23 22 21 18 23 19 21 22 20 24 20 21.083 2.372 Rising
21 Panthers 13 25 27 25 24 20 23 26 21 21 19 21 22.083 -12.719 Falling
22 Titans 26 20 26 20 21 21 26 23 20 26 17 23 22.417 2.947 Rising
23 Buccaneers 23 24 21 22 22 19 22 20 27 22 29 24 22.917 0.992 Rising
24 Colts 21 19 23 24 25 24 25 22 28 23 25 22 23.417 -1.599 Falling
25 Saints 25 26 20 26 20 25 27 24 23 25 21 25 23.917 4.810 Rising
26 Jets 27 28 24 28 28 27 21 27 24 24 31 26 26.250 -7.250 Falling
27 Jaguars 30 27 25 23 27 26 24 25 26 27 27 28 26.250 3.568 Rising
28 Chargers 24 22 28 27 23 31 28 29 25 28 23 27 26.250 -2.704 Falling
29 Bears 28 29 29 29 29 30 30 28 30 31 16 30 28.250 3.205 Rising
30 Dolphins 29 30 30 31 30 28 31 31 29 29 28 29 29.583 -4.856 Falling
31 49ers 31 31 31 30 32 29 29 30 31 30 32 31 30.583 -2.674 Falling
32 Browns 32 32 32 32 31 32 32 32 32 32 30 32 31.750 -0.477 Falling

Observations:

  • Making a return this week for the first time this season: Pro Football Focus. (Related: messing up every team's deviation: Pro Football Focus). It should be noted that PFF's rankings are actually subjective, selected by the writers of the site.
  • It feels like it's been forever since the Vikings have been this good, so live it up Minnesota, you've earned.
  • While I agree that the Falcons caught the Broncos at a good time with Paxton Lynch getting his first NFL start; the Broncos were completely out-played the whole game, so why some pundits still have the Broncos ahead of the Falcons is beyond me. Maybe too many people hanging on to last year's 5-0 start?
  • Pretty sad state of afairs when the Chargers have a +10 point differential, one of the best-performing offenses in the league, and are considered to be the 5th-worst team in the league. (Mike Florio at PFT even thinks they're the second-worst team.)

Subjective Standard Deviation

Put simply, Standard Deviation is a tool in statistics to measure how much variance there is in a set of numbers. To put more simply: I use it to look at who's ranked the most- and least-consistently. In Standard Deviation, the lower the number, the more consistent the values in the set.

For our purposes, this means the lower the Standard Deviation, the more consistent the rankings. The opposite is true too: the higher the number, the less consistent the rankings.

This table is sorted by most-consistently ranked to least-consistently ranked.

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit PFF AP STD DEV Change in Value
1 Browns 32 32 32 32 31 32 32 32 32 32 30 32 0.595 -0.267 Falling
2 Patriots 2 4 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 0.687 0.242 Rising
3 Broncos 4 5 5 5 5 7 5 7 4 4 5 5 0.954 0.509 Rising
4 49ers 31 31 31 30 32 29 29 30 31 30 32 31 0.954 -0.551 Falling
5 Dolphins 29 30 30 31 30 28 31 31 29 29 28 29 1.038 -1.378 Falling
6 Raiders 12 8 10 8 9 8 10 10 9 10 7 10 1.299 -0.244 Falling
7 Cowboys 7 7 8 10 6 10 8 8 7 9 4 9 1.639 -1.420 Falling
8 Lions 20 23 22 21 18 23 19 21 22 20 24 20 1.706 -1.871 Falling
9 Bills 16 11 14 13 11 14 11 15 15 12 13 11 1.732 -0.764 Falling
10 Falcons 6 6 4 3 3 6 4 6 3 6 1 7 1.754 -0.517 Falling
11 Jaguars 30 27 25 23 27 26 24 25 26 27 27 28 1.785 0.952 Rising
12 Vikings 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 1 1.929 1.641 Rising
13 Chiefs 15 15 12 17 12 15 17 13 13 15 18 12 2.021 -0.286 Falling
14 Packers 9 3 3 6 8 3 7 5 8 7 9 6 2.154 0.722 Rising
15 Seahawks 5 9 7 7 7 4 3 3 5 5 10 4 2.165 0.524 Rising
16 Eagles 11 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 8 2 8 2.173 0.887 Rising
17 Colts 21 19 23 24 25 24 25 22 28 23 25 22 2.216 0.467 Rising
18 Rams 19 18 15 14 16 17 12 16 19 18 20 18 2.230 0.121 Rising
19 Steelers 3 2 6 4 4 5 6 4 6 3 11 3 2.278 0.241 Rising
20 Saints 25 26 20 26 20 25 27 24 23 25 21 25 2.290 1.540 Rising
21 Giants 17 21 19 18 26 22 20 19 18 19 22 19 2.345 0.288 Rising
22 Cardinals 10 12 17 15 15 18 13 17 16 14 12 17 2.392 -0.576 Falling
23 Jets 27 28 24 28 28 27 21 27 24 24 31 26 2.521 0.225 Rising
24 Chargers 24 22 28 27 23 31 28 29 25 28 23 27 2.681 0.410 Rising
25 Buccaneers 23 24 21 22 22 19 22 20 27 22 29 24 2.691 0.498 Rising
26 Redskins 22 17 13 11 14 11 15 14 12 17 15 14 2.929 1.157 Rising
27 Titans 26 20 26 20 21 21 26 23 20 26 17 23 2.929 0.662 Rising
28 Bengals 8 13 18 19 13 16 14 18 11 11 14 16 3.166 0.740 Rising
29 Ravens 14 14 16 12 19 13 18 11 14 16 6 13 3.262 1.703 Rising
30 Panthers 13 25 27 25 24 20 23 26 21 21 19 21 3.662 1.277 Rising
31 Bears 28 29 29 29 29 30 30 28 30 31 16 30 3.789 3.133 Rising
32 Texans 18 16 11 16 17 12 16 12 17 13 26 15 3.789 1.132 Rising

Observations:

  • Agreement about the Browns being worst, though it's not unanimous ... yet. Give it another week or two, we'll get there.
  • PFF seems to be irrationaly high on the Bears and Ravens, and irrationaly down on the Texans.

Objective Average

I call these rankings the "Objective" rankings because unlike the rankings above, these are rankings based on statistical models of some sort. I use the term "Objective" loosely here because there is still some inherent bias in how the various models are constructed. Each ranking site has their own criteria in what they feel is success in the NFL.

All that said, these rankings are more objective as they remove perception and bias and produce rankings based on how well teams actually play, not how they're perceived to play.

Objective
FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI Average Change in Value
1 Vikings 2 7 1 3 7 2 2 1 1 2 1 2.636 3.637 Rising
2 Steelers 3 3 2 4 2 3 7 3 3 4 4 3.455 6.818 Rising
3 Broncos 7 5 4 9 10 5 9 2 2 1 3 5.182 -0.636 Falling
4 Eagles 4 12 8 2 1 1 1 8 8 11 7 5.727 -0.363 Falling
5 Patriots 10 1 3 10 18 7 3 4 4 5 2 6.091 -3.909 Falling
6 Seahawks 1 2 6 14 4 13 8 7 6 3 8 6.546 0.727 Rising
7 Packers 5 6 5 13 6 8 13 6 5 6 5 7.091 0.182 Rising
8 Bills 8 8 7 8 3 6 6 9 9 8 9 7.364 6.182 Rising
9 Falcons 6 13 11 1 14 4 4 5 7 9 10 7.636 10.000 Rising
10 Cowboys 9 16 10 11 5 9 5 10 10 14 12 10.091 6.000 Rising
11 Cardinals 11 4 9 23 15 10 12 13 12 10 6 11.364 -2.818 Falling
12 Raiders 13 14 12 5 8 11 10 12 11 21 14 11.909 5.364 Rising
13 Chiefs 12 9 13 19 16 22 19 11 13 7 16 14.273 -8.909 Falling
14 Bengals 17 10 15 16 21 19 21 14 17 13 13 16.000 -1.636 Falling
15 Panthers 20 11 14 30 11 17 22 18 19 12 11 16.818 -8.182 Falling
16 Ravens 15 17 16 7 17 21 16 21 15 20 24 17.182 -4.818 Falling
17 Redskins 16 26 20 6 24 18 17 17 16 16 25 18.273 8.091 Rising
18 Giants 18 23 18 17 23 14 15 19 21 23 19 19.091 1.182 Rising
19 Texans 31 18 17 12 25 23 29 15 14 15 21 20.000 -3.545 Falling
20 Chargers 14 15 22 28 20 15 11 27 27 26 15 20.000 -3.091 Falling
21 Lions 22 21 23 20 26 12 18 22 20 18 27 20.818 -0.182 Falling
22 Titans 19 30 28 18 9 16 14 26 22 31 20 21.182 5.091 Rising
23 Colts 26 20 19 24 12 24 27 24 23 22 17 21.636 -0.909 Falling
24 Rams 24 19 21 15 27 26 25 16 18 17 31 21.727 -0.091 Falling
25 Saints 21 25 26 21 13 20 23 25 25 24 18 21.909 4.182 Rising
26 Jets 30 22 24 25 29 27 30 23 26 19 23 25.273 -6.273 Falling
27 Bears 23 31 30 27 22 25 20 28 30 28 26 26.364 2.636 Rising
28 49ers 28 29 25 32 19 28 26 29 28 27 22 26.636 -3.454 Falling
29 Jaguars 25 27 29 22 28 31 24 30 29 30 28 27.546 1.454 Rising
30 Buccaneers 29 28 27 29 30 30 32 20 24 25 30 27.636 -0.909 Falling
31 Dolphins 27 24 31 26 32 29 28 31 31 29 29 28.818 -8.636 Falling
32 Browns 32 32 32 31 31 32 31 32 32 32 32 31.727 -3.181 Falling

Observations:

  • Near-unanimous consensus about the Vikings being the best team in the NFL. The various stats-based rankings don't necessarily agree.
  • I use DAVE/Weighted DVOA as my source for the Football Outsiders rankings. The Vikings are #2 in DAVE, but for the first time in the 27-year history of DVOA, they are #1 in non-weighted DVOA.
  • Just at a cursory glance, Aikman appears to be the most out of line with the consensus.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI STD DEV Change in Value
1 Browns 32 32 32 31 31 32 31 32 32 32 32 0.445 -4.836 Falling
2 Steelers 3 3 2 4 2 3 7 3 3 4 4 1.305 -3.919 Falling
3 Bills 8 8 7 8 3 6 6 9 9 8 9 1.720 -0.251 Falling
4 Vikings 2 7 1 3 7 2 2 1 1 2 1 2.144 -3.149 Falling
5 Dolphins 27 24 31 26 32 29 28 31 31 29 29 2.328 -3.029 Falling
6 Jaguars 25 27 29 22 28 31 24 30 29 30 28 2.675 0.189 Rising
7 Packers 5 6 5 13 6 8 13 6 5 6 5 2.906 -0.399 Falling
8 Giants 18 23 18 17 23 14 15 19 21 23 19 2.999 -2.155 Falling
9 Broncos 7 5 4 9 10 5 9 2 2 1 3 3.010 -1.346 Falling
10 Cowboys 9 16 10 11 5 9 5 10 10 14 12 3.147 -3.227 Falling
11 Buccaneers 29 28 27 29 30 30 32 20 24 25 30 3.283 0.793 Rising
12 Bengals 17 10 15 16 21 19 21 14 17 13 13 3.303 -2.548 Falling
13 Jets 30 22 24 25 29 27 30 23 26 19 23 3.360 -1.739 Falling
14 Bears 23 31 30 27 22 25 20 28 30 28 26 3.392 0.834 Rising
15 49ers 28 29 25 32 19 28 26 29 28 27 22 3.419 -1.049 Falling
16 Saints 21 25 26 21 13 20 23 25 25 24 18 3.704 -1.053 Falling
17 Raiders 13 14 12 5 8 11 10 12 11 21 14 3.825 -2.207 Falling
18 Lions 22 21 23 20 26 12 18 22 20 18 27 3.904 -0.408 Falling
19 Eagles 4 12 8 2 1 1 1 8 8 11 7 3.910 0.310 Rising
20 Falcons 6 13 11 1 14 4 4 5 7 9 10 3.914 -0.137 Falling
21 Seahawks 1 2 6 14 4 13 8 7 6 3 8 3.963 0.171 Rising
22 Colts 26 20 19 24 12 24 27 24 23 22 17 4.162 -1.062 Falling
23 Ravens 15 17 16 7 17 21 16 21 15 20 24 4.260 -0.115 Falling
24 Chiefs 12 9 13 19 16 22 19 11 13 7 16 4.371 2.064 Rising
25 Cardinals 11 4 9 23 15 10 12 13 12 10 6 4.715 0.595 Rising
26 Patriots 10 1 3 10 18 7 3 4 4 5 2 4.719 2.773 Rising
27 Rams 24 19 21 15 27 26 25 16 18 17 31 4.956 -0.941 Falling
28 Redskins 16 26 20 6 24 18 17 17 16 16 25 5.310 1.891 Rising
29 Panthers 20 11 14 30 11 17 22 18 19 12 11 5.638 1.542 Rising
30 Chargers 14 15 22 28 20 15 11 27 27 26 15 5.985 -0.586 Falling
31 Texans 31 18 17 12 25 23 29 15 14 15 21 6.030 -0.512 Falling
32 Titans 19 30 28 18 9 16 14 26 22 31 20 6.658 2.350 Rising

Observations:

  • Agreement about the Browns being worst, though it's not unanimous ... yet. Give it another week or two, we'll get there.
  • I know it's hard to believe, but the Bills may actually be good this year!
  • Another year, another disappointing season for the Jaguars which saw many people at the start of the season trumpeting, "this will be their year!"

Overall Average

Now let's compare the two sets of data. We'll start with the "Overall Average" chart. This takes the Subjective Average and the Objective Average, and then averages those two numbers. This way it gives equal weight to both averages so that even though Subjective Average has a larger sample size, it doesn't drown out the Objective Average.

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Average Change in Value
1 Vikings 1.667 2.636 2.152 2.530 Rising
2 Steelers 4.750 3.455 4.102 4.625 Rising
3 Patriots 2.167 6.091 4.129 -2.402 Falling
4 Broncos 5.083 5.182 5.133 -1.997 Falling
5 Falcons 4.583 7.636 6.110 10.435 Rising
6 Seahawks 5.750 6.546 6.148 0.579 Rising
7 Packers 6.167 7.091 6.629 -0.311 Falling
8 Eagles 8.667 5.727 7.197 -1.879 Falling
9 Cowboys 7.750 10.091 8.920 5.580 Rising
10 Bills 13.000 7.364 10.182 7.773 Rising
11 Raiders 9.250 11.909 10.580 5.193 Rising
12 Cardinals 14.667 11.364 13.015 -2.697 Falling
13 Chiefs 14.500 14.273 14.386 -6.886 Falling
14 Bengals 14.250 16.000 15.125 -1.216 Falling
15 Ravens 13.833 17.182 15.508 -5.053 Falling
16 Redskins 14.583 18.273 16.428 7.436 Rising
17 Texans 15.750 20.000 17.875 -3.057 Falling
18 Rams 16.833 21.727 19.280 1.493 Rising
19 Panthers 22.083 16.818 19.451 -10.451 Falling
20 Giants 20.000 19.091 19.545 -2.227 Falling
21 Lions 21.083 20.818 20.951 1.094 Rising
22 Titans 22.417 21.182 21.799 4.019 Rising
23 Colts 23.417 21.636 22.527 -1.254 Falling
24 Saints 23.917 21.909 22.913 4.496 Rising
25 Chargers 26.250 20.000 23.125 -2.898 Falling
26 Buccaneers 22.917 27.636 25.277 0.041 Rising
27 Jets 26.250 25.273 25.761 -6.761 Falling
28 Jaguars 26.250 27.546 26.898 2.511 Rising
29 Bears 28.250 26.364 27.307 2.920 Rising
30 49ers 30.583 26.636 28.610 -3.065 Falling
31 Dolphins 29.583 28.818 29.201 -6.746 Falling
32 Browns 31.750 31.727 31.739 -1.830 Falling

Observations:

  • Steelers, Patriots, Broncos all the class of the AFC much like was predicted. The next best AFC teams are the Bills and Raiders, also like everyone predicted?
  • Solid cluster of similar rankings around the Falcons, Seahawks, and Packers.
  • I seem to remember some talk of Miami finally being able to put it together this year. Whoops.

Overall Standard Deviation

The Overall Standard Deviation does not average anything out, it just takes the Standard Deviation across all the rankings. Yes this will even things out slightly, but it goes to show which teams have consensus across the board.

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg STD DEV Change in Value
1 Browns 31.750 31.727 0.529 -3.493 Falling
2 Dolphins 29.583 28.818 1.817 -2.919 Falling
3 Steelers 4.750 3.455 1.985 -2.270 Falling
4 Vikings 1.667 2.636 2.092 -1.980 Falling
5 Broncos 5.083 5.182 2.193 -1.209 Falling
6 Jaguars 26.250 27.546 2.346 0.447 Rising
7 Packers 6.167 7.091 2.583 -0.137 Falling
8 Giants 20.000 19.091 2.716 -2.196 Falling
9 Cowboys 7.750 10.091 2.740 -2.506 Falling
10 Lions 21.083 20.818 2.971 -1.234 Falling
11 Jets 26.250 25.273 2.992 -0.962 Falling
12 Raiders 9.250 11.909 3.105 -1.546 Falling
13 49ers 30.583 26.636 3.155 -0.932 Falling
14 Seahawks 5.750 6.546 3.180 0.208 Rising
15 Saints 23.917 21.909 3.210 -0.441 Falling
16 Bills 13.000 7.364 3.303 -1.647 Falling
17 Bengals 14.250 16.000 3.348 -1.154 Falling
18 Falcons 4.583 7.636 3.355 -0.106 Falling
19 Chiefs 14.500 14.273 3.359 0.215 Rising
20 Colts 23.417 21.636 3.411 -0.522 Falling
21 Eagles 8.667 5.727 3.454 0.751 Rising
22 Bears 28.250 26.364 3.726 1.491 Rising
23 Buccaneers 22.917 27.636 3.807 1.070 Rising
24 Patriots 2.167 6.091 3.839 2.356 Rising
25 Cardinals 14.667 11.364 4.042 0.038 Rising
26 Ravens 13.833 17.182 4.127 0.328 Rising
27 Rams 16.833 21.727 4.508 -0.004 Falling
28 Redskins 14.583 18.273 4.621 0.925 Rising
29 Titans 22.417 21.182 5.105 1.633 Rising
30 Panthers 22.083 16.818 5.396 2.025 Rising
31 Texans 15.750 20.000 5.421 0.167 Rising
32 Chargers 26.250 20.000 5.534 -0.397 Falling

Observations:

  • Chargers just edging out the Texans as the least consistently-ranked team in the NFL overall.
  • 13 teams saw their rankings become less consistent, but 19 saw theirs become more consistent. As the season goes on, teams settle in.
  • Overall, the Browns have the strongest consensus and it isn't even close.

Difference in Averages

This compares the Subjective average ranking with the Objective average ranking. This tells us just how far off people are from the formulas. A positive number means people think they will be or are better than the stats indicate, a negative number means the math thinks they're better than what people think. The closer to 0 this number is, the more in agreement the Subjective and Objective rankings are.

Generally speaking, the Subjective Rankings tend to be more reactionary to a team's performance than the mathematical models are. You'll often end up with major peaks and valleys for a team in the Subjective rankings, where the Objective rankings are more steady.

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Diff. in Avg Change in Value
1 Rams 16.833 21.727 4.894 3.167 Rising
2 Buccaneers 22.917 27.636 4.720 1.902 Rising
3 Texans 15.750 20.000 4.250 0.977 Rising
4 Patriots 2.167 6.091 3.924 3.015 Rising
5 Redskins 14.583 18.273 3.689 -1.311 Rising
6 Ravens 13.833 17.182 3.349 -0.469 Rising
7 Falcons 4.583 7.636 3.053 0.871 Rising
8 Raiders 9.250 11.909 2.659 -0.341 Rising
9 Cowboys 7.750 10.091 2.341 -0.841 Rising
10 Bengals 14.250 16.000 1.750 0.841 Rising
11 Jaguars 26.250 27.546 1.296 2.114 Rising
12 Vikings 1.667 2.636 0.970 -2.212 Rising
13 Packers 6.167 7.091 0.924 -0.985 Rising
14 Seahawks 5.750 6.546 0.796 -0.295 Rising
15 Broncos 5.083 5.182 0.099 -2.719 Rising
16 Browns 31.750 31.727 -0.023 2.704 Rising
17 Chiefs 14.500 14.273 -0.227 4.046 Rising
18 Lions 21.083 20.818 -0.265 2.553 Rising
19 Dolphins 29.583 28.818 -0.765 3.781 Rising
20 Giants 20.000 19.091 -0.909 -6.818 Rising
21 Jets 26.250 25.273 -0.977 -0.977 Rising
22 Titans 22.417 21.182 -1.235 -2.144 Rising
23 Steelers 4.750 3.455 -1.296 -4.387 Rising
24 Colts 23.417 21.636 -1.780 -0.689 Rising
25 Bears 28.250 26.364 -1.886 0.569 Rising
26 Saints 23.917 21.909 -2.008 0.628 Rising
27 Eagles 8.667 5.727 -2.939 -3.030 Rising
28 Cardinals 14.667 11.364 -3.303 0.242 Rising
29 49ers 30.583 26.636 -3.947 0.780 Rising
30 Panthers 22.083 16.818 -5.265 -4.538 Rising
31 Bills 13.000 7.364 -5.636 3.182 Rising
32 Chargers 26.250 20.000 -6.250 0.386 Rising

Observations:

  • Oh no, is the irrational love for the Rams just delayed this year?
  • Bucs over-ranked too. Has Jameis Winston just stolen too many hearts?
  • It's not often we see the Patriots overranked, and yet, here we are. Will be interesting to see if the objective rankings come up to match now that Brady is back.
  • Chargers are the most under-ranked team. I mean, I know it's easy to be down on a 1-4 team that has blown so many games late. But you can't discount they've played quite well in the other 58 minutes of each of their games.
  • Buffalo sorely under-ranked too. Maybe pundits afraid to believe in them.

Sources

Subjective Objective
ESPN Football Outsiders
Fox Team Rankings
CBS Sagarin
USA Today BeatGraphs
Sports Illustrated Aikman Efficiency
ProFootballTalk Pro Football Reference
NFL.com Cold Hard Football Facts
SportingNews Massey
SB Nation ARGH
Reddit Five Thirty Eight
ProFootballFocus Football Power Index
Associated Press

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