The Vikings and Eagles are here, and they're for real.
Once again, it took me two weeks to get the rankings out. These take a lot of time for me to do and I had trouble getting them out last week. But, I was able to dedicate the time this week, so here they are!
Heading into this 2016 NFL season, the conventional wisdom was that the Panthers and Cardinals were favorites to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LI. My, how things change once games are being played. Understood that significant injuries to a team's quarterback will hamper even the best of teams, but both teams have been flawed deep beyond their second-string quarterback play.
With the Cardinals and Panthers hampered, the door has opened for new teams to take the torch, and we have a new guard in the NFC. Gone are the Panthers, Cardinals, Giants and Saints. In their place we have the likeliest candidates in the Vikings, Eagles, Falcons, and Cowboys; just like everyone predicted.
Sent this tweet out on Sunday and stand behind it fully. It absolutely boggles my mind that people can consider Joe Flacco or Eli Manning to be better than Philip Rivers simply because of a ring (or two). This is pro football, not effing Mordor. Rivers has been consistently outstanding for the bulk of his career, and while those other guys have displayed moments of brilliance, they've also been consistently mediocre. Rivers single-handedly keeps the Chargers afloat while everything around him crumbles. Would anyone have watched "The Hunt for Red October" if Sean Connery wasn't in it -- and it only featured Alec Baldwin with slicked-back hair working with the Jurassic Park guy in a big stolen sub? Rivers' hold on being an all-timer is a helluva lot firmer than his holder's -- tell you that right now. Alright, I'm done. Rant over.
The Chargers keep finding ways to lose under Mike McCoy, dropping 11 of their past 12 games, all of which were decided by a touchdown or less. McCoy's Chargers have allowed an NFL-worst 103 points in the second half/overtime this season (39 points in the first half).
Having a hard time moving the Chargers down in the rankings because they have a dynamic offense (No. 2 in points) and are extremely competitive each week. Also can’t move them up because their fourth-quarter performances come with all the composure of a stressed-out Nicolas Cage.
Division | Week 4 Average | Week 6 Average | Difference |
---|---|---|---|
NFC East | 15.250 | 13.011 | 2.239 |
AFC West | 11.659 | 13.326 | -1.667 |
NFC North | 15.818 | 14.261 | 1.557 |
AFC North | 15.750 | 16.598 | -0.848 |
NFC West | 15.841 | 16.772 | -0.931 |
AFC East | 15.284 | 17.337 | -2.053 |
NFC South | 19.568 | 18.435 | 1.133 |
AFC South | 22.830 | 22.261 | 0.569 |
Team | Week 4 Average | Week 6 Average | Difference |
---|---|---|---|
ATL | 16.545 | 6.110 | 10.435 |
BUF | 17.955 | 10.182 | 7.773 |
WAS | 23.864 | 16.428 | 7.436 |
DAL | 14.500 | 8.920 | 5.580 |
OAK | 15.773 | 10.580 | 5.193 |
Team | Week 4 Average | Week 6 Average | Difference |
---|---|---|---|
CAR | 9.000 | 19.451 | -10.451 |
KC | 7.500 | 14.386 | -6.886 |
NYJ | 19.000 | 25.761 | -6.761 |
MIA | 22.455 | 29.201 | -6.746 |
BAL | 10.455 | 15.508 | -5.053 |
We'll start off with the Subjective Average. These rankings are the ones that has actual people ranking the teams based on their gut feelings. You'll see in a moment that some of these sites may even just throw darts at a board, or have a chicken pecking at numbers.
I then take all those rankings and average them together, then sort the table based on the average ranking. This method evens out the peaks and valleys and allows us to get a more reliable "big picture" view of the perception of where teams rank in the league.
Subjective | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ESPN | Fox | CBS | USA | SI | PFT | NFL | SN | SBN | PFF | AP | Average | Change in Value | |||||
1 | Vikings | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 1.667 | 1.424 ![]() |
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2 | Patriots | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2.167 | -0.894 ![]() |
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3 | Falcons | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 4.583 | 10.872 ![]() |
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4 | Steelers | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 4.750 | 2.432 ![]() |
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5 | Broncos | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5.083 | -3.356 ![]() |
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6 | Seahawks | 5 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 5.750 | 0.432 ![]() |
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7 | Packers | 9 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 6.167 | -0.803 ![]() |
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8 | Cowboys | 7 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 7.750 | 5.159 ![]() |
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9 | Eagles | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 8.667 | -3.394 ![]() |
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10 | Raiders | 12 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 9.250 | 5.023 ![]() |
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11 | Bills | 16 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 13.000 | 9.364 ![]() |
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12 | Ravens | 14 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 19 | 13 | 18 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 6 | 13 | 13.833 | -5.287 ![]() |
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13 | Bengals | 8 | 13 | 18 | 19 | 13 | 16 | 14 | 18 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 14.250 | -0.795 ![]() |
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14 | Chiefs | 15 | 15 | 12 | 17 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 12 | 14.500 | -4.864 ![]() |
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15 | Redskins | 22 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 14.583 | 6.781 ![]() |
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16 | Cardinals | 10 | 12 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 18 | 13 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 17 | 14.667 | -2.576 ![]() |
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17 | Texans | 18 | 16 | 11 | 16 | 17 | 12 | 16 | 12 | 17 | 13 | 26 | 15 | 15.750 | -2.568 ![]() |
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18 | Rams | 19 | 18 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 12 | 16 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 18 | 16.833 | 3.076 ![]() |
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19 | Giants | 17 | 21 | 19 | 18 | 26 | 22 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 22 | 19 | 20.000 | -5.636 ![]() |
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20 | Lions | 20 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 18 | 23 | 19 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 24 | 20 | 21.083 | 2.372 ![]() |
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21 | Panthers | 13 | 25 | 27 | 25 | 24 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 21 | 22.083 | -12.719 ![]() |
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22 | Titans | 26 | 20 | 26 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 26 | 23 | 20 | 26 | 17 | 23 | 22.417 | 2.947 ![]() |
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23 | Buccaneers | 23 | 24 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 19 | 22 | 20 | 27 | 22 | 29 | 24 | 22.917 | 0.992 ![]() |
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24 | Colts | 21 | 19 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 24 | 25 | 22 | 28 | 23 | 25 | 22 | 23.417 | -1.599 ![]() |
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25 | Saints | 25 | 26 | 20 | 26 | 20 | 25 | 27 | 24 | 23 | 25 | 21 | 25 | 23.917 | 4.810 ![]() |
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26 | Jets | 27 | 28 | 24 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 21 | 27 | 24 | 24 | 31 | 26 | 26.250 | -7.250 ![]() |
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27 | Jaguars | 30 | 27 | 25 | 23 | 27 | 26 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 26.250 | 3.568 ![]() |
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28 | Chargers | 24 | 22 | 28 | 27 | 23 | 31 | 28 | 29 | 25 | 28 | 23 | 27 | 26.250 | -2.704 ![]() |
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29 | Bears | 28 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 28 | 30 | 31 | 16 | 30 | 28.250 | 3.205 ![]() |
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30 | Dolphins | 29 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 30 | 28 | 31 | 31 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 29 | 29.583 | -4.856 ![]() |
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31 | 49ers | 31 | 31 | 31 | 30 | 32 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 30 | 32 | 31 | 30.583 | -2.674 ![]() |
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32 | Browns | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 30 | 32 | 31.750 | -0.477 ![]() |
Put simply, Standard Deviation is a tool in statistics to measure how much variance there is in a set of numbers. To put more simply: I use it to look at who's ranked the most- and least-consistently. In Standard Deviation, the lower the number, the more consistent the values in the set.
For our purposes, this means the lower the Standard Deviation, the more consistent the rankings. The opposite is true too: the higher the number, the less consistent the rankings.
This table is sorted by most-consistently ranked to least-consistently ranked.
Subjective | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ESPN | Fox | CBS | USA | SI | PFT | NFL | SN | SBN | PFF | AP | STD DEV | Change in Value | |||||
1 | Browns | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 30 | 32 | 0.595 | -0.267 ![]() |
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2 | Patriots | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.687 | 0.242 ![]() |
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3 | Broncos | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0.954 | 0.509 ![]() |
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4 | 49ers | 31 | 31 | 31 | 30 | 32 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 30 | 32 | 31 | 0.954 | -0.551 ![]() |
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5 | Dolphins | 29 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 30 | 28 | 31 | 31 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 29 | 1.038 | -1.378 ![]() |
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6 | Raiders | 12 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 1.299 | -0.244 ![]() |
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7 | Cowboys | 7 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 1.639 | -1.420 ![]() |
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8 | Lions | 20 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 18 | 23 | 19 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 24 | 20 | 1.706 | -1.871 ![]() |
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9 | Bills | 16 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 1.732 | -0.764 ![]() |
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10 | Falcons | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 1.754 | -0.517 ![]() |
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11 | Jaguars | 30 | 27 | 25 | 23 | 27 | 26 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 1.785 | 0.952 ![]() |
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12 | Vikings | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 1.929 | 1.641 ![]() |
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13 | Chiefs | 15 | 15 | 12 | 17 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 12 | 2.021 | -0.286 ![]() |
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14 | Packers | 9 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2.154 | 0.722 ![]() |
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15 | Seahawks | 5 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 2.165 | 0.524 ![]() |
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16 | Eagles | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 2.173 | 0.887 ![]() |
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17 | Colts | 21 | 19 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 24 | 25 | 22 | 28 | 23 | 25 | 22 | 2.216 | 0.467 ![]() |
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18 | Rams | 19 | 18 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 12 | 16 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 18 | 2.230 | 0.121 ![]() |
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19 | Steelers | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 2.278 | 0.241 ![]() |
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20 | Saints | 25 | 26 | 20 | 26 | 20 | 25 | 27 | 24 | 23 | 25 | 21 | 25 | 2.290 | 1.540 ![]() |
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21 | Giants | 17 | 21 | 19 | 18 | 26 | 22 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 22 | 19 | 2.345 | 0.288 ![]() |
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22 | Cardinals | 10 | 12 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 18 | 13 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 17 | 2.392 | -0.576 ![]() |
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23 | Jets | 27 | 28 | 24 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 21 | 27 | 24 | 24 | 31 | 26 | 2.521 | 0.225 ![]() |
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24 | Chargers | 24 | 22 | 28 | 27 | 23 | 31 | 28 | 29 | 25 | 28 | 23 | 27 | 2.681 | 0.410 ![]() |
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25 | Buccaneers | 23 | 24 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 19 | 22 | 20 | 27 | 22 | 29 | 24 | 2.691 | 0.498 ![]() |
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26 | Redskins | 22 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 2.929 | 1.157 ![]() |
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27 | Titans | 26 | 20 | 26 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 26 | 23 | 20 | 26 | 17 | 23 | 2.929 | 0.662 ![]() |
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28 | Bengals | 8 | 13 | 18 | 19 | 13 | 16 | 14 | 18 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 3.166 | 0.740 ![]() |
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29 | Ravens | 14 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 19 | 13 | 18 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 6 | 13 | 3.262 | 1.703 ![]() |
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30 | Panthers | 13 | 25 | 27 | 25 | 24 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 21 | 3.662 | 1.277 ![]() |
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31 | Bears | 28 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 28 | 30 | 31 | 16 | 30 | 3.789 | 3.133 ![]() |
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32 | Texans | 18 | 16 | 11 | 16 | 17 | 12 | 16 | 12 | 17 | 13 | 26 | 15 | 3.789 | 1.132 ![]() |
I call these rankings the "Objective" rankings because unlike the rankings above, these are rankings based on statistical models of some sort. I use the term "Objective" loosely here because there is still some inherent bias in how the various models are constructed. Each ranking site has their own criteria in what they feel is success in the NFL.
All that said, these rankings are more objective as they remove perception and bias and produce rankings based on how well teams actually play, not how they're perceived to play.
Objective | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO | TR | SAG | BG | Aikman | PFR | CHFF | Massey | ARGH | 538 | FPI | Average | Change in Value | ||||
1 | Vikings | 2 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2.636 | 3.637 ![]() |
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2 | Steelers | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3.455 | 6.818 ![]() |
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3 | Broncos | 7 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5.182 | -0.636 ![]() |
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4 | Eagles | 4 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 5.727 | -0.363 ![]() |
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5 | Patriots | 10 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6.091 | -3.909 ![]() |
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6 | Seahawks | 1 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 6.546 | 0.727 ![]() |
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7 | Packers | 5 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7.091 | 0.182 ![]() |
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8 | Bills | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7.364 | 6.182 ![]() |
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9 | Falcons | 6 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 7.636 | 10.000 ![]() |
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10 | Cowboys | 9 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 10.091 | 6.000 ![]() |
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11 | Cardinals | 11 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 11.364 | -2.818 ![]() |
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12 | Raiders | 13 | 14 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 21 | 14 | 11.909 | 5.364 ![]() |
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13 | Chiefs | 12 | 9 | 13 | 19 | 16 | 22 | 19 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 16 | 14.273 | -8.909 ![]() |
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14 | Bengals | 17 | 10 | 15 | 16 | 21 | 19 | 21 | 14 | 17 | 13 | 13 | 16.000 | -1.636 ![]() |
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15 | Panthers | 20 | 11 | 14 | 30 | 11 | 17 | 22 | 18 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 16.818 | -8.182 ![]() |
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16 | Ravens | 15 | 17 | 16 | 7 | 17 | 21 | 16 | 21 | 15 | 20 | 24 | 17.182 | -4.818 ![]() |
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17 | Redskins | 16 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 25 | 18.273 | 8.091 ![]() |
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18 | Giants | 18 | 23 | 18 | 17 | 23 | 14 | 15 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 19 | 19.091 | 1.182 ![]() |
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19 | Texans | 31 | 18 | 17 | 12 | 25 | 23 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 21 | 20.000 | -3.545 ![]() |
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20 | Chargers | 14 | 15 | 22 | 28 | 20 | 15 | 11 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 15 | 20.000 | -3.091 ![]() |
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21 | Lions | 22 | 21 | 23 | 20 | 26 | 12 | 18 | 22 | 20 | 18 | 27 | 20.818 | -0.182 ![]() |
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22 | Titans | 19 | 30 | 28 | 18 | 9 | 16 | 14 | 26 | 22 | 31 | 20 | 21.182 | 5.091 ![]() |
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23 | Colts | 26 | 20 | 19 | 24 | 12 | 24 | 27 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 17 | 21.636 | -0.909 ![]() |
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24 | Rams | 24 | 19 | 21 | 15 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 31 | 21.727 | -0.091 ![]() |
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25 | Saints | 21 | 25 | 26 | 21 | 13 | 20 | 23 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 18 | 21.909 | 4.182 ![]() |
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26 | Jets | 30 | 22 | 24 | 25 | 29 | 27 | 30 | 23 | 26 | 19 | 23 | 25.273 | -6.273 ![]() |
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27 | Bears | 23 | 31 | 30 | 27 | 22 | 25 | 20 | 28 | 30 | 28 | 26 | 26.364 | 2.636 ![]() |
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28 | 49ers | 28 | 29 | 25 | 32 | 19 | 28 | 26 | 29 | 28 | 27 | 22 | 26.636 | -3.454 ![]() |
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29 | Jaguars | 25 | 27 | 29 | 22 | 28 | 31 | 24 | 30 | 29 | 30 | 28 | 27.546 | 1.454 ![]() |
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30 | Buccaneers | 29 | 28 | 27 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 32 | 20 | 24 | 25 | 30 | 27.636 | -0.909 ![]() |
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31 | Dolphins | 27 | 24 | 31 | 26 | 32 | 29 | 28 | 31 | 31 | 29 | 29 | 28.818 | -8.636 ![]() |
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32 | Browns | 32 | 32 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 31.727 | -3.181 ![]() |
Objective | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO | TR | SAG | BG | Aikman | PFR | CHFF | Massey | ARGH | 538 | FPI | STD DEV | Change in Value | ||||
1 | Browns | 32 | 32 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 0.445 | -4.836 ![]() |
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2 | Steelers | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1.305 | -3.919 ![]() |
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3 | Bills | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 1.720 | -0.251 ![]() |
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4 | Vikings | 2 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2.144 | -3.149 ![]() |
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5 | Dolphins | 27 | 24 | 31 | 26 | 32 | 29 | 28 | 31 | 31 | 29 | 29 | 2.328 | -3.029 ![]() |
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6 | Jaguars | 25 | 27 | 29 | 22 | 28 | 31 | 24 | 30 | 29 | 30 | 28 | 2.675 | 0.189 ![]() |
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7 | Packers | 5 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2.906 | -0.399 ![]() |
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8 | Giants | 18 | 23 | 18 | 17 | 23 | 14 | 15 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 19 | 2.999 | -2.155 ![]() |
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9 | Broncos | 7 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3.010 | -1.346 ![]() |
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10 | Cowboys | 9 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 3.147 | -3.227 ![]() |
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11 | Buccaneers | 29 | 28 | 27 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 32 | 20 | 24 | 25 | 30 | 3.283 | 0.793 ![]() |
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12 | Bengals | 17 | 10 | 15 | 16 | 21 | 19 | 21 | 14 | 17 | 13 | 13 | 3.303 | -2.548 ![]() |
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13 | Jets | 30 | 22 | 24 | 25 | 29 | 27 | 30 | 23 | 26 | 19 | 23 | 3.360 | -1.739 ![]() |
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14 | Bears | 23 | 31 | 30 | 27 | 22 | 25 | 20 | 28 | 30 | 28 | 26 | 3.392 | 0.834 ![]() |
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15 | 49ers | 28 | 29 | 25 | 32 | 19 | 28 | 26 | 29 | 28 | 27 | 22 | 3.419 | -1.049 ![]() |
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16 | Saints | 21 | 25 | 26 | 21 | 13 | 20 | 23 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 18 | 3.704 | -1.053 ![]() |
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17 | Raiders | 13 | 14 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 21 | 14 | 3.825 | -2.207 ![]() |
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18 | Lions | 22 | 21 | 23 | 20 | 26 | 12 | 18 | 22 | 20 | 18 | 27 | 3.904 | -0.408 ![]() |
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19 | Eagles | 4 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3.910 | 0.310 ![]() |
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20 | Falcons | 6 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 3.914 | -0.137 ![]() |
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21 | Seahawks | 1 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 3.963 | 0.171 ![]() |
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22 | Colts | 26 | 20 | 19 | 24 | 12 | 24 | 27 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 17 | 4.162 | -1.062 ![]() |
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23 | Ravens | 15 | 17 | 16 | 7 | 17 | 21 | 16 | 21 | 15 | 20 | 24 | 4.260 | -0.115 ![]() |
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24 | Chiefs | 12 | 9 | 13 | 19 | 16 | 22 | 19 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 16 | 4.371 | 2.064 ![]() |
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25 | Cardinals | 11 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 4.715 | 0.595 ![]() |
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26 | Patriots | 10 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4.719 | 2.773 ![]() |
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27 | Rams | 24 | 19 | 21 | 15 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 31 | 4.956 | -0.941 ![]() |
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28 | Redskins | 16 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 25 | 5.310 | 1.891 ![]() |
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29 | Panthers | 20 | 11 | 14 | 30 | 11 | 17 | 22 | 18 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 5.638 | 1.542 ![]() |
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30 | Chargers | 14 | 15 | 22 | 28 | 20 | 15 | 11 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 15 | 5.985 | -0.586 ![]() |
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31 | Texans | 31 | 18 | 17 | 12 | 25 | 23 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 21 | 6.030 | -0.512 ![]() |
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32 | Titans | 19 | 30 | 28 | 18 | 9 | 16 | 14 | 26 | 22 | 31 | 20 | 6.658 | 2.350 ![]() |
Now let's compare the two sets of data. We'll start with the "Overall Average" chart. This takes the Subjective Average and the Objective Average, and then averages those two numbers. This way it gives equal weight to both averages so that even though Subjective Average has a larger sample size, it doesn't drown out the Objective Average.
Subj vs Obj | |||||||
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Subj Avg | Obj Avg | Average | Change in Value | ||||
1 | Vikings | 1.667 | 2.636 | 2.152 | 2.530 ![]() |
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2 | Steelers | 4.750 | 3.455 | 4.102 | 4.625 ![]() |
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3 | Patriots | 2.167 | 6.091 | 4.129 | -2.402 ![]() |
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4 | Broncos | 5.083 | 5.182 | 5.133 | -1.997 ![]() |
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5 | Falcons | 4.583 | 7.636 | 6.110 | 10.435 ![]() |
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6 | Seahawks | 5.750 | 6.546 | 6.148 | 0.579 ![]() |
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7 | Packers | 6.167 | 7.091 | 6.629 | -0.311 ![]() |
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8 | Eagles | 8.667 | 5.727 | 7.197 | -1.879 ![]() |
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9 | Cowboys | 7.750 | 10.091 | 8.920 | 5.580 ![]() |
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10 | Bills | 13.000 | 7.364 | 10.182 | 7.773 ![]() |
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11 | Raiders | 9.250 | 11.909 | 10.580 | 5.193 ![]() |
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12 | Cardinals | 14.667 | 11.364 | 13.015 | -2.697 ![]() |
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13 | Chiefs | 14.500 | 14.273 | 14.386 | -6.886 ![]() |
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14 | Bengals | 14.250 | 16.000 | 15.125 | -1.216 ![]() |
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15 | Ravens | 13.833 | 17.182 | 15.508 | -5.053 ![]() |
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16 | Redskins | 14.583 | 18.273 | 16.428 | 7.436 ![]() |
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17 | Texans | 15.750 | 20.000 | 17.875 | -3.057 ![]() |
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18 | Rams | 16.833 | 21.727 | 19.280 | 1.493 ![]() |
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19 | Panthers | 22.083 | 16.818 | 19.451 | -10.451 ![]() |
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20 | Giants | 20.000 | 19.091 | 19.545 | -2.227 ![]() |
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21 | Lions | 21.083 | 20.818 | 20.951 | 1.094 ![]() |
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22 | Titans | 22.417 | 21.182 | 21.799 | 4.019 ![]() |
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23 | Colts | 23.417 | 21.636 | 22.527 | -1.254 ![]() |
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24 | Saints | 23.917 | 21.909 | 22.913 | 4.496 ![]() |
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25 | Chargers | 26.250 | 20.000 | 23.125 | -2.898 ![]() |
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26 | Buccaneers | 22.917 | 27.636 | 25.277 | 0.041 ![]() |
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27 | Jets | 26.250 | 25.273 | 25.761 | -6.761 ![]() |
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28 | Jaguars | 26.250 | 27.546 | 26.898 | 2.511 ![]() |
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29 | Bears | 28.250 | 26.364 | 27.307 | 2.920 ![]() |
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30 | 49ers | 30.583 | 26.636 | 28.610 | -3.065 ![]() |
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31 | Dolphins | 29.583 | 28.818 | 29.201 | -6.746 ![]() |
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32 | Browns | 31.750 | 31.727 | 31.739 | -1.830 ![]() |
The Overall Standard Deviation does not average anything out, it just takes the Standard Deviation across all the rankings. Yes this will even things out slightly, but it goes to show which teams have consensus across the board.
Subj vs Obj | |||||||
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Subj Avg | Obj Avg | STD DEV | Change in Value | ||||
1 | Browns | 31.750 | 31.727 | 0.529 | -3.493 ![]() |
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2 | Dolphins | 29.583 | 28.818 | 1.817 | -2.919 ![]() |
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3 | Steelers | 4.750 | 3.455 | 1.985 | -2.270 ![]() |
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4 | Vikings | 1.667 | 2.636 | 2.092 | -1.980 ![]() |
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5 | Broncos | 5.083 | 5.182 | 2.193 | -1.209 ![]() |
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6 | Jaguars | 26.250 | 27.546 | 2.346 | 0.447 ![]() |
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7 | Packers | 6.167 | 7.091 | 2.583 | -0.137 ![]() |
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8 | Giants | 20.000 | 19.091 | 2.716 | -2.196 ![]() |
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9 | Cowboys | 7.750 | 10.091 | 2.740 | -2.506 ![]() |
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10 | Lions | 21.083 | 20.818 | 2.971 | -1.234 ![]() |
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11 | Jets | 26.250 | 25.273 | 2.992 | -0.962 ![]() |
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12 | Raiders | 9.250 | 11.909 | 3.105 | -1.546 ![]() |
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13 | 49ers | 30.583 | 26.636 | 3.155 | -0.932 ![]() |
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14 | Seahawks | 5.750 | 6.546 | 3.180 | 0.208 ![]() |
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15 | Saints | 23.917 | 21.909 | 3.210 | -0.441 ![]() |
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16 | Bills | 13.000 | 7.364 | 3.303 | -1.647 ![]() |
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17 | Bengals | 14.250 | 16.000 | 3.348 | -1.154 ![]() |
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18 | Falcons | 4.583 | 7.636 | 3.355 | -0.106 ![]() |
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19 | Chiefs | 14.500 | 14.273 | 3.359 | 0.215 ![]() |
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20 | Colts | 23.417 | 21.636 | 3.411 | -0.522 ![]() |
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21 | Eagles | 8.667 | 5.727 | 3.454 | 0.751 ![]() |
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22 | Bears | 28.250 | 26.364 | 3.726 | 1.491 ![]() |
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23 | Buccaneers | 22.917 | 27.636 | 3.807 | 1.070 ![]() |
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24 | Patriots | 2.167 | 6.091 | 3.839 | 2.356 ![]() |
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25 | Cardinals | 14.667 | 11.364 | 4.042 | 0.038 ![]() |
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26 | Ravens | 13.833 | 17.182 | 4.127 | 0.328 ![]() |
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27 | Rams | 16.833 | 21.727 | 4.508 | -0.004 ![]() |
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28 | Redskins | 14.583 | 18.273 | 4.621 | 0.925 ![]() |
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29 | Titans | 22.417 | 21.182 | 5.105 | 1.633 ![]() |
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30 | Panthers | 22.083 | 16.818 | 5.396 | 2.025 ![]() |
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31 | Texans | 15.750 | 20.000 | 5.421 | 0.167 ![]() |
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32 | Chargers | 26.250 | 20.000 | 5.534 | -0.397 ![]() |
This compares the Subjective average ranking with the Objective average ranking. This tells us just how far off people are from the formulas. A positive number means people think they will be or are better than the stats indicate, a negative number means the math thinks they're better than what people think. The closer to 0 this number is, the more in agreement the Subjective and Objective rankings are.
Generally speaking, the Subjective Rankings tend to be more reactionary to a team's performance than the mathematical models are. You'll often end up with major peaks and valleys for a team in the Subjective rankings, where the Objective rankings are more steady.
Subj vs Obj | |||||||
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Subj Avg | Obj Avg | Diff. in Avg | Change in Value | ||||
1 | Rams | 16.833 | 21.727 | 4.894 | 3.167 ![]() |
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2 | Buccaneers | 22.917 | 27.636 | 4.720 | 1.902 ![]() |
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3 | Texans | 15.750 | 20.000 | 4.250 | 0.977 ![]() |
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4 | Patriots | 2.167 | 6.091 | 3.924 | 3.015 ![]() |
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5 | Redskins | 14.583 | 18.273 | 3.689 | -1.311 ![]() |
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6 | Ravens | 13.833 | 17.182 | 3.349 | -0.469 ![]() |
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7 | Falcons | 4.583 | 7.636 | 3.053 | 0.871 ![]() |
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8 | Raiders | 9.250 | 11.909 | 2.659 | -0.341 ![]() |
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9 | Cowboys | 7.750 | 10.091 | 2.341 | -0.841 ![]() |
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10 | Bengals | 14.250 | 16.000 | 1.750 | 0.841 ![]() |
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11 | Jaguars | 26.250 | 27.546 | 1.296 | 2.114 ![]() |
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12 | Vikings | 1.667 | 2.636 | 0.970 | -2.212 ![]() |
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13 | Packers | 6.167 | 7.091 | 0.924 | -0.985 ![]() |
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14 | Seahawks | 5.750 | 6.546 | 0.796 | -0.295 ![]() |
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15 | Broncos | 5.083 | 5.182 | 0.099 | -2.719 ![]() |
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16 | Browns | 31.750 | 31.727 | -0.023 | 2.704 ![]() |
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17 | Chiefs | 14.500 | 14.273 | -0.227 | 4.046 ![]() |
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18 | Lions | 21.083 | 20.818 | -0.265 | 2.553 ![]() |
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19 | Dolphins | 29.583 | 28.818 | -0.765 | 3.781 ![]() |
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20 | Giants | 20.000 | 19.091 | -0.909 | -6.818 ![]() |
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21 | Jets | 26.250 | 25.273 | -0.977 | -0.977 ![]() |
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22 | Titans | 22.417 | 21.182 | -1.235 | -2.144 ![]() |
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23 | Steelers | 4.750 | 3.455 | -1.296 | -4.387 ![]() |
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24 | Colts | 23.417 | 21.636 | -1.780 | -0.689 ![]() |
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25 | Bears | 28.250 | 26.364 | -1.886 | 0.569 ![]() |
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26 | Saints | 23.917 | 21.909 | -2.008 | 0.628 ![]() |
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27 | Eagles | 8.667 | 5.727 | -2.939 | -3.030 ![]() |
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28 | Cardinals | 14.667 | 11.364 | -3.303 | 0.242 ![]() |
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29 | 49ers | 30.583 | 26.636 | -3.947 | 0.780 ![]() |
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30 | Panthers | 22.083 | 16.818 | -5.265 | -4.538 ![]() |
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31 | Bills | 13.000 | 7.364 | -5.636 | 3.182 ![]() |
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32 | Chargers | 26.250 | 20.000 | -6.250 | 0.386 ![]() |