2015 NFL Power Rankings Consensus, Week 1

It's the first week of the season, and that means the Power Rankings Consensus is back! Time to plug all the rankings into our Rankotron 5000 and get a sense for how all 32 teams stack up.

First off, I'd like to start by apologizing for abandoning these rankings in the middle of last season. I'm pretty sure I explained already, but for those of you who missed it, I got a new job and moved from California to Colorado with my wife and daughter. With such a major life change and a new job, these rankings fell by the wayside.

With that out of the way, football is back! The NFL season opener is upon us, and I couldn't be more excited! It's that magical time of year where every fan feels their team still has a legitimate shot at a Super Bowl title. We're all so full of hope and anticipation and nothing short of a catastrophic loss by our team of choice will bring us from this euphoria.

Just like most teams in the NFL, it takes the rankers a few weeks to shake the rust off and get up to speed. Because of that, we don't have the full complement of rankers, especially those on the "Objective" side of things. Well, we don't have any objective rankers. That's fine, since they rely on the actual game stats to make their rankings.

Since it's the start of the season, I'll give everyone a quick primer about how this works.

I troll the web for various NFL power rankings, load them up into my computer and crunch the numbers. I then make observations based on what the numbers tell me. Don't worry, it's nothing too complicated, and I'll walk you through the various displays, explaining as we go along.

Notable Quotes

Admittedly, this is a lofty ranking for a team with one playoff appearance, one playoff win and zero 10-win seasons since 2010. But one leap of faith begets another: The Chargers will live up to this billing if Melvin Gordon shows his lethargic preseason to be a fluke.

The San Diego Chargers of Carson of Los Angeles get ready for a season of hearing about how the Chargers are going to move out of San Diego during the commentary of every game.

If there is a team that analysts, league observers and football fans don't talk about enough -- at least when it comes to their on-field outlook -- it might be these little Chargers. Enough already about the potential move to L.A. -- Philip Rivers and company have the opportunity to put this San Diego group into the postseason. Love the young nucleus coordinator John Pagano is leading on defense, starting with the linebackers.

Division Averages

Before we get to looking at where all the teams rank, let's take look at the bigger picture in the NFL. This table takes the average rankings for each team, then averages the rankings of each team in the division. It's used as a way of showing where the tougher and weaker divisions lie each week.

Subjective Average

We'll start off with the Subjective Average. These rankings are the ones that has actual people ranking the teams based on their gut feelings. You'll see in a moment that some of these sites may even just throw darts at a board, or have a chicken pecking at numbers.

I then take all those rankings and average them together, then sort the table based on the average ranking. This method evens out the peaks and valleys and allows us to get a more reliable "big picture" view of the perception of where teams rank in the league.

	Subjective
	ESPN	Fox	CBS	SI	PFT	NFL	SN	SBN	Reddit		Average		Change in Value
Patriots	2	3	2	1	1	4	1	3	2		2.111		-0.667
Seahawks	1	1	9	2	5	1	2	1	1		2.556		6.444
Packers	3	4	1	4	3	2	3	2	3		2.778		6.000
Colts	4	8	5	3	7	3	4	5	5		4.889		1.333
Broncos	5	2	8	7	4	8	6	4	4		5.333		-2.222
Cowboys	6	5	3	5	6	6	9	11	6		6.333		0.667
Ravens	8	6	7	6	2	14	7	7	8		7.222		8.000
Steelers	7	12	4	17	8	5	8	8	7		8.444		0.556
Cardinals	10	11	6	8	11	9	11	9	9		9.333		-7.777
Eagles	9	9	13	11	14	10	5	6	10		9.667		-5.445
Bengals	11	14	10	10	12	11	14	13	12		11.889		-0.667
Dolphins	15	7	15	13	16	15	10	16	13		13.333		-0.666
Lions	12	10	17	12	17	12	18	12	11		13.444		-7.333
Chiefs	14	16	18	15	10	7	17	10	14		13.444		-1.555
Chargers	13	17	16	9	18	13	16	15	15		14.667		2.000
Vikings	17	18	14	14	15	16	15	14	17		15.556		6.333
Bills	18	13	24	16	9	17	22	19	16		17.111		-1.555
Texans	20	15	20	18	13	20	19	18	18		17.889		2.889
Panthers	19	25	11	19	19	18	12	20	19		18.000		4.000
Saints	16	20	21	22	20	24	20	17	20		20.000		-4.111
Giants	21	21	12	23	23	22	13	24	22		20.111		3.222
Rams	22	19	19	21	21	19	24	23	23		21.222		1.889
Falcons	23	22	27	20	22	23	23	21	21		22.444		4.556
49ers	24	24	26	24	25	27	26	22	24		24.667		-8.000
Jets	26	23	28	26	27	21	21	26	25		24.778		5.444
Bears	25	29	22	25	29	25	25	25	27		25.778		-2.000
Raiders	28	28	29	28	26	26	29	28	28		27.778		4.222
Browns	27	32	30	27	24	31	28	27	26		28.000		-10.111
Jaguars	31	31	23	29	28	28	27	29	30		28.444		1.667
Buccaneers	29	26	31	30	31	29	31	31	29		29.667		-0.223
Titans	30	27	25	32	30	32	32	32	31		30.111		-2.000
Redskins	32	30	32	31	32	30	30	30	32		31.000		-4.889

Observations:

• The "Change in Value" column is comparing these rankings to Week 10's rankings last year. So they don't really have much weight other than to show who's changed since WEek 10 last year.
• Always amuses me when the defending Super Bowl champions aren't the consensus number-one pick. I know things change in the offseason, but these rankings were all done after Brady's suspension was lifted.
• Rankers putting the Colts ahead of the Broncos amuses me too. The Manning era is officially over?
• The top 12 is split 7-5 in favor of AFC teams.
• Chargers and Chiefs neck-and-neck. I don't really see it, I don't trust that offensive line in Kansas City and it's hard to trust Alex Smith. I could be proven wrong but that's my gut feeling
• Lions ranked just a bit ahead of the Chargers, Sunday's season opener seems like it'll be a close game (at least on paper).
• Why the Redskins aren't the consensus worst team right now is beyond me.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Put simply, Standard Deviation is a tool in statistics to measure how much variance there is in a set of numbers. To put more simply: I use it to look at who's ranked the most- and least-consistently. In Standard Deviation, the lower the number, the more consistent the values in the set.

For our purposes, this means the lower the Standard Deviation, the more consistent the rankings. The opposite is true too: the higher the number, the less consistent the rankings.

This table is sorted by most-consistently ranked to least-consistently ranked.

	Subjective
	ESPN	Fox	CBS	SI	PFT	NFL	SN	SBN	Reddit		STD DEV		Change in Value
Packers	3	4	1	4	3	2	3	2	3		0.916		-0.558
Redskins	32	30	32	31	32	30	30	30	32		0.943		0.629
Patriots	2	3	2	1	1	4	1	3	2		0.994		0.497
Raiders	28	28	29	28	26	26	29	28	28		1.030		1.030
49ers	24	24	26	24	25	27	26	22	24		1.414		-0.641
Vikings	17	18	14	14	15	16	15	14	17		1.423		0.137
Bengals	11	14	10	10	12	11	14	13	12		1.449		-0.169
Cardinals	10	11	6	8	11	9	11	9	9		1.564		1.067
Buccaneers	29	26	31	30	31	29	31	31	29		1.564		0.399
Colts	4	8	5	3	7	3	4	5	5		1.595		-0.090
Rams	22	19	19	21	21	19	24	23	23		1.812		0.149
Falcons	23	22	27	20	22	23	23	21	21		1.892		1.421
Broncos	5	2	8	7	4	8	6	4	4		1.944		1.630
Bears	25	29	22	25	29	25	25	25	27		2.096		0.699
Cowboys	6	5	3	5	6	6	9	11	6		2.211		0.720
Saints	16	20	21	22	20	24	20	17	20		2.261		0.469
Texans	20	15	20	18	13	20	19	18	18		2.283		0.968
Jaguars	31	31	23	29	28	28	27	29	30		2.315		1.440
Titans	30	27	25	32	30	32	32	32	31		2.378		2.064
Jets	26	23	28	26	27	21	21	26	25		2.393		1.764
Browns	27	32	30	27	24	31	28	27	26		2.404		0.880
Chargers	13	17	16	9	18	13	16	15	15		2.539		1.048
Seahawks	1	1	9	2	5	1	2	1	1		2.587		1.644
Eagles	9	9	13	11	14	10	5	6	10		2.749		2.120
Lions	12	10	17	12	17	12	18	12	11		2.833		1.041
Dolphins	15	7	15	13	16	15	10	16	13		2.867		0.923
Ravens	8	6	7	6	2	14	7	7	8		2.936		1.186
Chiefs	14	16	18	15	10	7	17	10	14		3.468		2.019
Steelers	7	12	4	17	8	5	8	8	7		3.685		1.060
Panthers	19	25	11	19	19	18	12	20	19		3.972		2.558
Giants	21	21	12	23	23	22	13	24	22		4.175		2.842
Bills	18	13	24	16	9	17	22	19	16		4.228		1.773

Observations:

• Pretty good consensus early on that the Packers are about the 3rd-best team in the league.
• Pete Prisco at CBS hates the Seahawks and it's painfully obvious.
• This chart is fun to see just which team is hard to pin down. The Bills are ranked anywhere from 9th to 24th. Giants 13th to 24th. Panthers right behind
• Take out SI's 9th-place rank for the Chargers, the Chargers are actually a pretty consistent middle of the pack.

Objective Average

I call these rankings the "Objective" rankings because unlike the rankings above, these are rankings based on statistical models of some sort. I use the term "Objective" loosely here because there is still some inherent bias in how the various models are constructed. Each ranking site has their own criteria in what they feel is success in the NFL.

All that said, these rankings are more objective as they remove perception and bias and produce rankings based on how well teams actually play, not how they're perceived to play.

	Objective
	TR	SAG	Massey	ARGH		Average		Change in Value
Seahawks	1	1	2	1		1.250		6.750
Patriots	2	4	1	2		2.250		3.150
Broncos	3	3	3	3		3.000		-2.000
Packers	4	2	4	5		3.750		4.750
Colts	5	5	6	10		6.500		-1.800
Eagles	6	8	9	6		7.250		2.150
Chiefs	7	11	8	4		7.500		0.000
Ravens	9	6	5	16		9.000		0.700
Cowboys	10	7	7	14		9.500		3.700
Bengals	11	14	13	9		11.750		1.350
Cardinals	15	12	15	7		12.250		-3.850
Dolphins	8	9	16	17		12.500		-5.000
Lions	18	13	12	8		12.750		-1.750
Steelers	13	10	11	18		13.000		0.700
Chargers	12	15	14	12		13.250		3.550
Bills	17	16	10	13		14.000		0.800
Vikings	14	17	21	19		17.750		5.650
Panthers	19	23	19	15		19.000		4.900
Texans	21	19	17	20		19.250		-0.550
49ers	24	25	18	11		19.500		-5.800
Saints	23	20	20	21		21.000		-8.200
Rams	16	21	23	24		21.000		6.100
Giants	22	18	22	23		21.250		-0.050
Jets	20	24	24	26		23.500		5.700
Falcons	25	22	25	25		24.250		0.650
Bears	27	26	27	22		25.500		-3.400
Browns	26	27	26	27		26.500		-8.100
Raiders	28	29	28	29		28.500		2.200
Redskins	30	28	30	28		29.000		-6.900
Buccaneers	29	30	29	31		29.750		0.950
Titans	31	32	32	30		31.250		-5.050
Jaguars	32	31	31	32		31.500		-1.300

Observations:

• This is just a small preview of the objective rankings. Very few of the objective models release predictive ratings, but we at least have some!
• Seahawks top the charts here. Patriots a solid second.
• Broncos unanimous third, neat.
• Chargers again setting up shop in the middle of the pack.
• Sharp delineation between the Bills and Vikings.
• 10 of the bottom 16 teams are NFC teams, including former powerhouses such as the 49ers, Saints, and Giants.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
	TR	SAG	Massey	ARGH		STD DEV		Change in Value
Broncos	3	3	3	3		0.000		0.000
Seahawks	1	1	2	1		0.433		-2.567
Jaguars	32	31	31	32		0.500		-1.333
Browns	26	27	26	27		0.500		-2.731
Raiders	28	29	28	29		0.500		-0.987
Titans	31	32	32	30		0.829		-1.771
Buccaneers	29	30	29	31		0.829		-0.176
Redskins	30	28	30	28		1.000		-4.941
Packers	4	2	4	5		1.090		-2.966
Patriots	2	4	1	2		1.090		-2.465
Saints	23	20	20	21		1.225		-3.060
Falcons	25	22	25	25		1.299		-2.061
Chargers	12	15	14	12		1.299		-4.477
Eagles	6	8	9	6		1.299		-4.721
Texans	21	19	17	20		1.479		-1.421
Bengals	11	14	13	9		1.920		-1.350
Giants	22	18	22	23		1.920		0.384
Bears	27	26	27	22		2.062		-0.486
Colts	5	5	6	10		2.062		0.110
Jets	20	24	24	26		2.179		1.102
Chiefs	7	11	8	4		2.500		-3.537
Vikings	14	17	21	19		2.586		-1.025
Bills	17	16	10	13		2.739		-1.180
Panthers	19	23	19	15		2.828		0.203
Cowboys	10	7	7	14		2.872		-0.187
Steelers	13	10	11	18		3.082		-0.553
Rams	16	21	23	24		3.082		0.534
Cardinals	15	12	15	7		3.269		-3.246
Lions	18	13	12	8		3.562		1.773
Dolphins	8	9	16	17		4.031		-1.284
Ravens	9	6	5	16		4.301		-0.217
49ers	24	25	18	11		5.590		0.075

Observations:

• Broncos with a unanimous #3 ranking, giving them a standard deviation of 0. What's interesting is their deviation didn't change from Week 10 last year, because then they had a unanimous #1 ranking.
• There's greater consensus about which team is bad than which is good.

Overall Average

Now let's compare the two sets of data. We'll start with the "Overall Average" chart. This takes the Subjective Average and the Objective Average, and then averages those two numbers. This way it gives equal weight to both averages so that even though Subjective Average has a larger sample size, it doesn't drown out the Objective Average.

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		Average		Change in Value
Seahawks	2.556	1.250		1.903		6.597
Patriots	2.111	2.250		2.181		1.241
Packers	2.778	3.750		3.264		5.375
Broncos	5.333	3.000		4.167		-2.111
Colts	4.889	6.500		5.694		-0.233
Cowboys	6.333	9.500		7.917		2.183
Ravens	7.222	9.000		8.111		4.350
Eagles	9.667	7.250		8.458		-1.647
Chiefs	13.444	7.500		10.472		-0.778
Steelers	8.444	13.000		10.722		0.628
Cardinals	9.333	12.250		10.792		-5.814
Bengals	11.889	11.750		11.819		0.342
Dolphins	13.333	12.500		12.917		-2.834
Lions	13.444	12.750		13.097		-4.541
Chargers	14.667	13.250		13.958		2.775
Bills	17.111	14.000		15.556		-0.378
Vikings	15.556	17.750		16.653		5.991
Panthers	18.000	19.000		18.500		4.450
Texans	17.889	19.250		18.569		1.170
Saints	20.000	21.000		20.500		-6.156
Giants	20.111	21.250		20.681		1.586
Rams	21.222	21.000		21.111		3.995
49ers	24.667	19.500		22.083		-6.900
Falcons	22.444	24.250		23.347		2.603
Jets	24.778	23.500		24.139		5.572
Bears	25.778	25.500		25.639		-2.700
Browns	28.000	26.500		27.250		-9.106
Raiders	27.778	28.500		28.139		3.211
Buccaneers	29.667	29.750		29.708		0.364
Jaguars	28.444	31.500		29.972		0.184
Redskins	31.000	29.000		30.000		-5.894
Titans	30.111	31.250		30.681		-3.525

Observations:

• Seahawks take the top spot from the Patriots
• Chargers just holding on in the "good teams" group, with the Bills falling in to the "average" group.
• Chargers and Lions remain pretty evenly-matched.
• Chiefs a top-10 team?

Overall Standard Deviation

The Overall Standard Deviation does not average anything out, it just takes the Standard Deviation across all the rankings. Yes this will even things out slightly, but it goes to show which teams have consensus across the board.

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		STD DEV		Change in Value
Raiders	27.778	28.500		0.961		-0.298
Patriots	2.111	2.250		1.026		-2.241
Packers	2.778	3.750		1.071		-2.045
Redskins	31.000	29.000		1.332		-3.425
Buccaneers	29.667	29.750		1.380		0.128
Bengals	11.889	11.750		1.610		-1.173
Colts	4.889	6.500		1.903		-0.079
Falcons	22.444	24.250		1.922		-0.751
Broncos	5.333	3.000		1.943		0.867
Saints	20.000	21.000		2.053		-1.630
Bears	25.778	25.500		2.090		-0.155
Titans	30.111	31.250		2.098		-0.027
Vikings	15.556	17.750		2.118		-0.748
Browns	28.000	26.500		2.135		-0.446
Texans	17.889	19.250		2.162		-0.352
Seahawks	2.556	1.250		2.248		-0.077
Rams	21.222	21.000		2.282		-0.666
Chargers	14.667	13.250		2.326		-1.989
Jets	24.778	23.500		2.403		1.374
Jaguars	28.444	31.500		2.403		0.942
Cardinals	9.333	12.250		2.606		-3.236
Eagles	9.667	7.250		2.645		-2.449
Cowboys	6.333	9.500		2.839		-1.106
Lions	13.444	12.750		3.092		0.065
Dolphins	13.333	12.500		3.293		-1.535
Ravens	7.222	9.000		3.512		-0.937
Giants	20.111	21.250		3.671		1.877
Panthers	18.000	19.000		3.688		1.348
49ers	24.667	19.500		4.085		-0.409
Bills	17.111	14.000		4.092		0.763
Steelers	8.444	13.000		4.092		0.127
Chiefs	13.444	7.500		4.216		-0.782

Observations:

• Raiders continuing their trend of being consistently bad.
• Patriots and Packers consistently good.
• 5 of the 8 least consistently ranked teams are AFC teams.
• Chiefs holding the crown of least consistent

Difference in Averages

This compares the Subjective average ranking with the Objective average ranking. This tells us just how far off people are from the formulas. A positive number means people think they will be or are better than the stats indicate, a negative number means the math thinks they're better than what people think. The closer to 0 this number is, the more in agreement the Subjective and Objective rankings are.

Generally speaking, the Subjective Rankings tend to be more reactionary to a team's performance than the mathematical models are. You'll often end up with major peaks and valleys for a team in the Subjective rankings, where the Objective rankings are more steady.

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		Diff. in Avg		Change in Value
Steelers	8.444	13.000		4.556		-0.144
Cowboys	6.333	9.500		3.167		-3.033
Jaguars	28.444	31.500		3.056		2.967
Cardinals	9.333	12.250		2.917		-3.927
Vikings	15.556	17.750		2.194		0.683
Falcons	22.444	24.250		1.806		3.906
Ravens	7.222	9.000		1.778		7.300
Colts	4.889	6.500		1.611		3.133
Texans	17.889	19.250		1.361		3.439
Giants	20.111	21.250		1.139		3.272
Titans	30.111	31.250		1.139		3.050
Saints	20.000	21.000		1.000		4.089
Panthers	18.000	19.000		1.000		-0.900
Packers	2.778	3.750		0.972		1.250
Raiders	27.778	28.500		0.722		2.022
Patriots	2.111	2.250		0.139		-3.817
Buccaneers	29.667	29.750		0.083		-1.173
Bengals	11.889	11.750		-0.139		-2.017
Rams	21.222	21.000		-0.222		-4.211
Bears	25.778	25.500		-0.278		1.400
Lions	13.444	12.750		-0.694		-5.583
Dolphins	13.333	12.500		-0.833		4.334
Jets	24.778	23.500		-1.278		-0.256
Seahawks	2.556	1.250		-1.306		-0.306
Chargers	14.667	13.250		-1.417		-1.550
Browns	28.000	26.500		-1.500		-2.011
Redskins	31.000	29.000		-2.000		2.011
Broncos	5.333	3.000		-2.333		-0.222
Eagles	9.667	7.250		-2.417		-7.595
Bills	17.111	14.000		-3.111		-2.355
49ers	24.667	19.500		-5.167		-2.200
Chiefs	13.444	7.500		-5.944		-1.555

Observations:

• This can be a fun chart to look at as the year goes on. It's been pretty good at predicting which teams will have preseason success, and who will flame out. But, this early in the season it's just fun to look at.
• Generally, when a team has a much higher subjective average than objective average, I would call them "Overrated." So in this instance, the Steelers and Cowboys would be "overrated." I'm not ready to slap that label there yet.
• Same story on the opposite end, the 49ers and Chiefs would generally be called "Underrated." Not yet.
• As the season progresses, generally the subjective rankings will be quicker to react to something changing on a team. For instance, a key player gets injured? Drop them a few positions. A lot of times though, the subjective rankings care more about record than anything else.

Sources

About the Author

Follow @creanium