2015 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 3

Last week was "Jump to Conclusions" week, where just one game told the media everything they needed to know. This week, we have twice as many games in our sample size, so naturally it's time to over correct.

What did we learn last week? Not a whole lot if this week's rankings are any indication. Some teams looked impressive in Week 1, then stunk up the joint in Week 2. Which team is likely to show up for the rest of the season? Who knows?

What I do know this week: we have some pretty good notable quotes.

Notable Quotes

The most important number for San Diego in Week 2 was not the final score of its loss to Cincinnati (24-19), but rather Melvin Gordon's per-carry average—5.5. He was far more explosive with the ball in his hands than he had been a week earlier. Assuming he maintains his forward momentum, this is an offensive juggernaut in waiting.

The most accurate quarterback in the league has been Philip Rivers, with an accuracy percentage of 89.6; that’s over five percent more than the second-most accurate quarterback. He’s also a perfect 17-for-17 on his play-action passes.

San Diego hung around long enough to make a drive to try to win it on Sunday. Tough to tell whether Philip Rivers saw Vincent Rey dropping into the zone on that fateful interception toward the end. The key sequence in the game had to be the Andy Dalton fumble that was called an incomplete pass -- hello, Tuck Rule -- which preceded Mike McCoy deciding to let the final 50 seconds of the first half run without calling a defensive timeout to get Rivers the ball back. Give your Hall of Fame quarterback (there, I said it) a shot there, Mike.

Division Averages

Stock Rising

Stock Falling

All NFC teams ...

Subjective Average

	Subjective
	ESPN	Fox	CBS	USA	SI	PFT	NFL	SN	SBN	Reddit	PFF	AP		Average		Change in Value
Patriots	1	1	2	2	1	1	2	1	1	1	2	1		1.333		-0.060
Packers	2	2	1	1	2	2	1	2	2	2	1	2		1.667		0.060
Broncos	5	3	6	3	3	3	5	3	3	3	3	3		3.583		0.417
Cardinals	3	4	4	4	4	5	3	4	4	4	10	5		4.500		1.318
Bengals	6	6	5	5	5	6	4	6	8	5	4	4		5.333		3.213
Steelers	4	11	7	6	14	12	8	5	7	6	13	7		8.333		5.122
Cowboys	12	5	3	17	6	4	13	7	6	12	11	6		8.500		-2.954
Chiefs	10	12	9	10	11	8	6	14	5	8	7	12		9.333		-0.333
Seahawks	7	13	11	8	10	10	11	9	16	7	6	8		9.667		-4.121
Falcons	11	7	12	9	9	11	10	10	12	9	8	11		9.917		7.265
Jets	9	10	10	15	7	14	9	11	10	13	5	9		10.167		10.924
Bills	8	8	13	11	13	7	7	12	9	10	17	13		10.667		-2.031
Panthers	14	9	8	7	12	13	14	8	11	14	20	10		11.667		5.060
Chargers	13	14	16	13	8	17	12	15	14	11	14	14		13.417		-0.871
Vikings	16	15	14	12	16	19	16	17	13	20	22	16		16.333		7.122
Ravens	17	19	15	14	19	9	22	19	19	15	16	17		16.750		-5.386
Dolphins	15	18	23	18	15	15	19	13	22	17	12	18		17.083		-3.628
Colts	18	16	17	16	17	21	17	20	20	16	9	19		17.167		-6.985
Rams	19	17	27	20	18	16	15	18	15	18	19	15		18.083		-4.719
49ers	20	21	21	23	21	18	23	16	18	21	26	20		20.667		-2.121
Redskins	23	20	26	19	20	28	20	22	17	24	30	21		22.500		6.227
Eagles	22	22	20	22	24	30	28	21	21	22	15	24		22.583		-7.492
Lions	24	25	19	26	22	27	24	29	23	19	23	23		23.667		-4.031
Giants	26	24	18	25	25	26	27	28	26	23	18	27		24.417		-1.690
Browns	21	30	24	31	23	20	25	25	27	25	24	25		25.000		4.727
Raiders	28	23	28	21	26	25	21	24	28	27	29	26		25.500		4.864
Jaguars	31	26	22	24	28	24	18	23	29	28	27	28		25.667		3.697
Titans	27	27	25	27	29	23	26	26	32	26	25	22		26.250		-1.614
Texans	25	28	31	29	27	22	29	31	24	29	28	30		27.750		-3.023
Buccaneers	29	29	29	28	30	29	30	27	30	30	31	29		29.250		2.477
Saints	30	31	32	30	31	31	31	30	25	31	21	31		29.500		-6.318
Bears	32	32	30	32	32	32	32	32	31	32	32	32		31.750		-5.114

Observations:

• Patriots and Packers are your consensus 1-2 teams. No other teams got a first- or second-place vote (which is why if you add their average rankings together, it's an even 3.000).
• Packers rose as much as Pats dropped. So that tells you the Packers stole a vote from the Patriots.
• Pretty good consensus of the Broncos being the #3 seed. Though, 3 of the 12 subjective rankings have them elsewhere.
• Chris Burke over at SI holding on to his belief that the Chargers are a top-8 team. Maybe he's to thank for keeping the Chargers elevated above the rest of the league with the sharp delineation between the Chargers' and Vikings' average rankings.
• Oh how the mighty have fallen. Saints and Bears as the bottom two teams? Woof.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
	ESPN	Fox	CBS	USA	SI	PFT	NFL	SN	SBN	Reddit	PFF	AP		STD DEV		Change in Value
Packers	2	2	1	1	2	2	1	2	2	2	1	2		0.471		0.026
Patriots	1	1	2	2	1	1	2	1	1	1	2	1		0.471		0.026
Bears	32	32	30	32	32	32	32	32	31	32	32	32		0.595		-0.176
Buccaneers	29	29	29	28	30	29	30	27	30	30	31	29		1.010		0.393
Broncos	5	3	6	3	3	3	5	3	3	3	3	3		1.038		-0.771
Bengals	6	6	5	5	5	6	4	6	8	5	4	4		1.106		-1.320
Falcons	11	7	12	9	9	11	10	10	12	9	8	11		1.498		0.232
Cardinals	3	4	4	4	4	5	3	4	4	4	10	5		1.756		0.007
Chargers	13	14	16	13	8	17	12	15	14	11	14	14		2.253		-0.283
Titans	27	27	25	27	29	23	26	26	32	26	25	22		2.488		0.665
49ers	20	21	21	23	21	18	23	16	18	21	26	20		2.528		0.701
Chiefs	10	12	9	10	11	8	6	14	5	8	7	12		2.560		-1.206
Raiders	28	23	28	21	26	25	21	24	28	27	29	26		2.630		1.987
Texans	25	28	31	29	27	22	29	31	24	29	28	30		2.681		1.080
Jets	9	10	10	15	7	14	9	11	10	13	5	9		2.703		0.428
Seahawks	7	13	11	8	10	10	11	9	16	7	6	8		2.718		0.368
Vikings	16	15	14	12	16	19	16	17	13	20	22	16		2.749		0.644
Lions	24	25	19	26	22	27	24	29	23	19	23	23		2.809		0.206
Bills	8	8	13	11	13	7	7	12	9	10	17	13		2.925		0.322
Colts	18	16	17	16	17	21	17	20	20	16	9	19		2.967		0.759
Browns	21	30	24	31	23	20	25	25	27	25	24	25		3.055		1.572
Saints	30	31	32	30	31	31	31	30	25	31	21	31		3.069		1.803
Giants	26	24	18	25	25	26	27	28	26	23	18	27		3.148		1.492
Rams	19	17	27	20	18	16	15	18	15	18	19	15		3.148		0.343
Steelers	4	11	7	6	14	12	8	5	7	6	13	7		3.171		-0.223
Dolphins	15	18	23	18	15	15	19	13	22	17	12	18		3.174		0.432
Ravens	17	19	15	14	19	9	22	19	19	15	16	17		3.192		-0.118
Jaguars	31	26	22	24	28	24	18	23	29	28	27	28		3.448		2.150
Panthers	14	9	8	7	12	13	14	8	11	14	20	10		3.496		0.246
Eagles	22	22	20	22	24	30	28	21	21	22	15	24		3.639		-0.186
Redskins	23	20	26	19	20	28	20	22	17	24	30	21		3.708		2.958
Cowboys	12	5	3	17	6	4	13	7	6	12	11	6		4.153		1.922

Observations:

• So like I said above, it's time to over correct, right? 2/3rds of the teams this week saw their subjective Standard Deviation rise. That means consensus among the rankers has gone down, and our rankings are less consistent.
• Like I pointed out: the Packers and Patriots are pretty interchangeable at 1-2.
• Bears were two votes shy of being the unanimous 32 team. Maybe dreams will come true for fans in Chicago and the Bears make it unanimous next week.
• 7 of the 11 least consistently-ranked teams are NFC teams.

Objective Average

	Objective
	FO	TR	SAG	BG	Aikman	PFR	Massey	ARGH	FPI		Average		Change in Value
Patriots	1	1	3	2	12	1	1	1	2		2.667		1.666
Broncos	3	3	2	8	2	11	2	2	7		4.444		1.112
Steelers	4	6	8	4	6	3	9	12	4		6.222		10.222
Bengals	6	5	7	6	7	9	5	4	9		6.444		-0.444
Packers	5	2	1	9	10	29	3	3	1		7.000		-2.667
Cardinals	2	8	6	5	3	24	6	5	5		7.111		2.222
Jets	8	12	11	1	1	2	7	14	12		7.556		4.888
Cowboys	21	9	5	11	8	13	4	9	17		10.778		1.889
Panthers	12	17	15	3	9	15	12	8	15		11.778		2.889
Bills	19	16	14	14	11	4	8	10	11		11.889		-2.556
Chiefs	10	7	9	15	25	18	10	6	13		12.556		-5.223
Seahawks	7	4	4	29	18	31	11	7	3		12.667		-6.042
Chargers	13	14	13	16	14	12	13	11	16		13.556		-0.889
Dolphins	17	10	10	12	17	25	18	17	14		15.556		-1.778
Falcons	11	23	18	13	13	16	14	15	18		15.667		4.111
Eagles	18	15	16	21	15	17	20	16	6		16.000		-3.333
Ravens	14	13	12	24	28	23	15	20	10		17.667		-3.223
Colts	22	11	17	27	32	5	17	21	8		17.778		-0.889
49ers	25	24	22	20	23	7	16	13	25		19.444		-6.333
Vikings	16	18	21	28	19	14	19	19	24		19.778		4.000
Lions	15	20	19	31	22	19	22	18	20		20.667		-3.778
Giants	20	21	20	19	27	10	25	24	23		21.000		-0.222
Titans	23	27	30	17	5	8	31	30	21		21.333		-3.000
Rams	9	19	23	25	21	30	21	23	22		21.444		-6.069
Browns	24	26	26	7	30	6	24	26	29		22.000		6.889
Texans	26	22	24	23	26	20	23	22	19		22.778		-0.556
Redskins	29	28	25	18	4	26	27	25	27		23.222		2.111
Raiders	27	30	28	22	16	22	26	29	30		25.556		3.444
Jaguars	30	31	31	10	20	21	29	31	28		25.667		2.333
Saints	28	25	27	32	24	28	28	28	26		27.333		-2.555
Bears	32	29	29	26	29	32	32	27	31		29.667		-3.556
Buccaneers	31	32	32	30	31	27	30	32	32		30.778		0.778

Observations:

• Huh. When it comes to the objective list, the Patriots and Packers aren't so neck-and-neck. The Packers are hurt by their #29 ranking on Pro Football Reference, with the weak schedule being the key factor.
• A number of media outlets have been proclaiming: don't panic about the Seahawks just yet. And for the most part, the objective rankings support this. Beatgraphs ranking the Seahawks at 29 is expected considering they haven't beat anyone yet. PFR have the Seahawks with negative ratings in all columns.
• PFR doesn't like the Cardinals much either because of a weak schedule early on. Football Outsiders addressed this topic in this week's DVOA ratings post.
• Wow, Chargers have pretty good consensus around 13th.
• As bad as the Bears have looked, the Buccaneers have still looked worse.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
	FO	TR	SAG	BG	Aikman	PFR	Massey	ARGH	FPI		STD DEV		Change in Value
Buccaneers	31	32	32	30	31	27	30	32	32		1.548		0.592
Chargers	13	14	13	16	14	12	13	11	16		1.571		-1.373
Bengals	6	5	7	6	7	9	5	4	9		1.641		-0.668
Bears	32	29	29	26	29	32	32	27	31		2.108		1.371
Saints	28	25	27	32	24	28	28	28	26		2.160		-0.233
Texans	26	22	24	23	26	20	23	22	19		2.250		-0.235
Steelers	4	6	8	4	6	3	9	12	4		2.780		-2.256
Broncos	3	3	2	8	2	11	2	2	7		3.166		-0.753
Patriots	1	1	3	2	12	1	1	1	2		3.367		-0.577
Falcons	11	23	18	13	13	16	14	15	18		3.399		-0.650
Vikings	16	18	21	28	19	14	19	19	24		3.938		0.203
Eagles	18	15	16	21	15	17	20	16	6		4.055		-0.240
Lions	15	20	19	31	22	19	22	18	20		4.163		1.056
Panthers	12	17	15	3	9	15	12	8	15		4.184		-0.085
Bills	19	16	14	14	11	4	8	10	11		4.202		-0.629
Raiders	27	30	28	22	16	22	26	29	30		4.425		2.661
Dolphins	17	10	10	12	17	25	18	17	14		4.450		-0.962
Giants	20	21	20	19	27	10	25	24	23		4.619		1.920
Jets	8	12	11	1	1	2	7	14	12		4.833		-3.141
Cowboys	21	9	5	11	8	13	4	9	17		5.181		1.380
Rams	9	19	23	25	21	30	21	23	22		5.294		1.143
Chiefs	10	7	9	15	25	18	10	6	13		5.679		2.971
49ers	25	24	22	20	23	7	16	13	25		5.871		-0.968
Ravens	14	13	12	24	28	23	15	20	10		5.907		-1.071
Cardinals	2	8	6	5	3	24	6	5	5		6.190		2.246
Jaguars	30	31	31	10	20	21	29	31	28		6.831		2.972
Redskins	29	28	25	18	4	26	27	25	27		7.420		0.956
Colts	22	11	17	27	32	5	17	21	8		8.310		-0.714
Packers	5	2	1	9	10	29	3	3	1		8.367		5.963
Browns	24	26	26	7	30	6	24	26	29		8.498		6.835
Titans	23	27	30	17	5	8	31	30	21		9.080		-2.771
Seahawks	7	4	4	29	18	31	11	7	3		10.231		3.340

Observations:

• Chargers are the second most-consistently ranked team on the objective board. In a very close third: their opponent from this past week, the Bengals. The Chargers just lost to the better team it seems.
• The Seahawks are all over the board, but that will happen when your ranking runs the gamut from 3rd down to 31st. As more games are played, these rankings should come into greater agreement. Honorable mention: Titans, Browns, Packers, and Colts.
• Speaking of Colts, what's wrong with Andrew Luck's cavalry? Pundits have plenty of theories, and apparently so do the algorithms.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		Average		Change in Value
Patriots	1.333	2.667		2.000		0.803
Broncos	3.583	4.444		4.014		0.764
Packers	1.667	7.000		4.333		-1.303
Cardinals	4.500	7.111		5.806		1.770
Bengals	5.333	6.444		5.889		1.384
Steelers	8.333	6.222		7.278		7.671
Jets	10.167	7.556		8.861		7.907
Cowboys	8.500	10.778		9.639		-0.533
Chiefs	9.333	12.556		10.944		-2.777
Seahawks	9.667	12.667		11.167		-5.082
Bills	10.667	11.889		11.278		-2.293
Panthers	11.667	11.778		11.722		3.975
Falcons	9.917	15.667		12.792		5.688
Chargers	13.417	13.556		13.486		-0.880
Dolphins	17.083	15.556		16.319		-2.703
Ravens	16.750	17.667		17.208		-4.304
Colts	17.167	17.778		17.472		-3.937
Vikings	16.333	19.778		18.056		5.560
Eagles	22.583	16.000		19.292		-5.413
Rams	18.083	21.444		19.764		-5.395
49ers	20.667	19.444		20.056		-4.228
Lions	23.667	20.667		22.167		-3.904
Giants	24.417	21.000		22.708		-0.955
Redskins	22.500	23.222		22.861		4.169
Browns	25.000	22.000		23.500		5.808
Titans	26.250	21.333		23.792		-2.307
Texans	27.750	22.778		25.264		-1.789
Raiders	25.500	25.556		25.528		4.154
Jaguars	25.667	25.667		25.667		3.015
Saints	29.500	27.333		28.417		-4.437
Buccaneers	29.250	30.778		30.014		1.627
Bears	31.750	29.667		30.708		-4.334

Observations:

• In the overall rankings this week, the Broncos sneak past the Packers for the second spot on the board.
• The Patriots solidified their position at the top.
• The Eagles continue their free fall. But that's completely understandable given how they've played.
• 10 of the bottom 16 teams are NFC teams.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		STD DEV		Change in Value
Bengals	5.333	6.444		1.468		-1.223
Buccaneers	29.250	30.778		1.477		0.685
Bears	31.750	29.667		1.781		0.981
Chargers	13.417	13.556		1.991		-0.737
Broncos	3.583	4.444		2.257		-0.794
Patriots	1.333	2.667		2.328		-0.742
Saints	29.500	27.333		2.921		0.899
Steelers	8.333	6.222		3.186		-1.282
Texans	27.750	22.778		3.512		1.116
Raiders	25.500	25.556		3.514		2.069
Bills	10.667	11.889		3.581		-0.207
Vikings	16.333	19.778		3.724		0.768
Lions	23.667	20.667		3.760		0.607
Falcons	9.917	15.667		3.786		0.635
Panthers	11.667	11.778		3.807		-0.074
Dolphins	17.083	15.556		3.849		-0.315
Jets	10.167	7.556		3.982		-3.086
Giants	24.417	21.000		4.203		1.810
49ers	20.667	19.444		4.335		-1.160
Cardinals	4.500	7.111		4.456		1.030
Chiefs	9.333	12.556		4.484		1.051
Rams	18.083	21.444		4.521		0.944
Ravens	16.750	17.667		4.580		-0.923
Cowboys	8.500	10.778		4.757		0.089
Eagles	22.583	16.000		5.023		0.804
Jaguars	25.667	25.667		5.176		2.332
Redskins	22.500	23.222		5.620		0.934
Colts	17.167	17.778		5.893		-1.211
Packers	1.667	7.000		6.090		3.995
Browns	25.000	22.000		6.204		4.583
Titans	26.250	21.333		6.693		-1.959
Seahawks	9.667	12.667		7.161		2.316

Observations:

• Huh, the Bengals are the most consistently-ranked team overall. Not who I would have guessed.
• It's fun when a team in the middle-rankings (10 > and < 20) is toward the top of this list. This week, the Chargers get that honor, with a solid consensus around the 13th-14th pick.
• The Jets are climbing the board quickly, and doing so with consensus. Who would have thought?
• Interestingly, just 0.6 spots separate the Colts' subjective and objective rankings, yet they're one of the least consistently-ranked teams.

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		Diff. in Avg		Change in Value
Falcons	9.917	15.667		5.750		3.154
Packers	1.667	7.000		5.333		2.727
Vikings	16.333	19.778		3.445		3.122
Rams	18.083	21.444		3.361		1.350
Chiefs	9.333	12.556		3.222		4.889
Seahawks	9.667	12.667		3.000		1.920
Cardinals	4.500	7.111		2.611		-0.904
Cowboys	8.500	10.778		2.278		-4.843
Buccaneers	29.250	30.778		1.528		1.700
Patriots	1.333	2.667		1.333		-1.728
Bills	10.667	11.889		1.222		0.525
Bengals	5.333	6.444		1.111		3.657
Ravens	16.750	17.667		0.917		-2.164
Broncos	3.583	4.444		0.861		-0.695
Redskins	22.500	23.222		0.722		4.116
Colts	17.167	17.778		0.611		-6.096
Chargers	13.417	13.556		0.139		0.018
Panthers	11.667	11.778		0.111		2.172
Raiders	25.500	25.556		0.056		1.420
Jaguars	25.667	25.667		0.000		1.364
49ers	20.667	19.444		-1.222		4.212
Dolphins	17.083	15.556		-1.528		-1.851
Bears	31.750	29.667		-2.083		-1.558
Steelers	8.333	6.222		-2.111		-5.101
Saints	29.500	27.333		-2.167		-3.763
Jets	10.167	7.556		-2.611		6.036
Browns	25.000	22.000		-3.000		-2.162
Lions	23.667	20.667		-3.000		-0.252
Giants	24.417	21.000		-3.417		-1.467
Titans	26.250	21.333		-4.917		1.386
Texans	27.750	22.778		-4.972		-2.467
Eagles	22.583	16.000		-6.583		-4.159

Observations:

• Yo, pundits, slow your roll on the Falcons.
• I'm not ready to call the Packers overrated, but their weak opponents are causing pause on the objective list.
• 8 of the 9 teams whose subjective ranking is most above the objective rankings are NFC teams. (Yeah, sorry if you have to read that sentence a few times to get it)
• On the other end of the spectrum: the Eagles. (That's funny that we have birds on either end of this list). While they have looked less than impressive these first two games, is it really the dumpster fire that's been portrayed?
• The Jets are actually under-ranked a bit? That's scary.

Sources

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