SB Nation

John Crean | September 16, 2015

2015 NFL Power Rankings Consensus, Week 2

Jump to Conclusions Week

Monday night kicked off the official National Jump To Conclusions week. Everything we need to know we learned in week 1. So how do the rankings shake out?

All the teams that won are going 16-0, all the teams that lost are going 0-16. Or so it seems based on the way the pundits are talking

Okay, maybe it's not really that bad, but it seems that way sometimes. Like clockwork, there are a couple teams we're all ready to anoint, and a couple teams that are already vying for the top pick in the 2016 NFL Draft.

And of course, there have been a few surprises this week, and that's reflected in this week's rankings. A lot of teams are on the move, while a few stand pat.

Notable Quotes

After falling behind 21-3, the Chargers rattled off 30 unanswered points in a span of about 32 minutes Sunday. Detroit would have needed a tarp to cover Keenan Allen during that run. He finally looked like his dynamic, rookie-year self again.

Their offense looked diverse and super-charged as the version that got them into the playoffs a couple seasons ago, storming back with their lightning-quick receivers. Fire on, Philip Rivers.

Philip Rivers looks primed for a bounce-back season after adding Stevie Johnson to his arsenal. The Chargers’ defensive line is finally showing signs of improvement, but the offensive line is still a major concern, especially after losing top lineman D.J. Fluker to a high ankle sprain.

Division Averages

Division Week 1 Average Week 2 Average Difference
AFC East 13.942 10.600 3.342
NFC West 14.218 10.949 3.269
AFC West 14.615 13.825 0.790
AFC North 14.250 16.075 -1.825
NFC North 14.558 17.825 -3.267
NFC East 16.769 17.950 -1.181
AFC South 20.885 21.838 -0.953
NFC South 22.827 22.425 0.402

Stock Rising

Team Week 1 Average Week 2 Average Difference
TEN 30.681 21.485 9.196
NYJ 24.139 16.768 7.371
STL 21.111 14.369 6.742
BUF 15.556 8.985 6.571
SF 22.083 15.828 6.255

Stock Falling

Team Week 1 Average Week 2 Average Difference
IND 5.694 13.535 -7.841
MIN 16.653 23.616 -6.963
PHI 8.458 13.879 -5.421
DET 13.097 18.263 -5.166
HOU 18.569 23.475 -4.906

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit AP Average Change in Value
Patriots 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1.273 0.838 Rising
Packers 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 1.727 1.051 Rising
Broncos 4 3 6 3 3 3 9 3 3 4 3 4.000 1.333 Rising
Cowboys 5 4 3 11 6 4 8 4 7 5 4 5.546 0.787 Rising
Seahawks 3 6 10 4 5 9 3 5 8 3 5 5.546 -2.990 Falling
Cardinals 6 5 4 10 4 8 5 6 4 6 6 5.818 3.515 Rising
Bengals 8 12 5 7 7 10 7 13 11 7 7 8.546 3.343 Rising
Bills 9 7 12 8 10 5 6 14 6 10 8 8.636 8.475 Rising
Chiefs 7 11 7 16 9 7 4 16 5 8 9 9.000 4.444 Rising
Colts 11 10 13 6 11 11 10 7 10 9 14 10.182 -5.293 Falling
Ravens 12 14 9 5 13 6 17 12 13 12 12 11.364 -4.142 Falling
Chargers 10 13 16 15 8 15 11 15 14 11 10 12.546 2.121 Rising
Rams 14 9 15 9 14 13 12 18 15 17 11 13.364 7.858 Rising
Steelers 13 19 8 14 20 14 13 9 12 13 13 13.455 -5.011 Falling
Dolphins 16 8 14 13 12 12 14 10 18 16 15 13.455 -0.122 Falling
Eagles 15 17 20 12 16 19 19 8 9 14 17 15.091 -5.424 Falling
Panthers 18 22 11 17 17 18 15 11 20 19 16 16.727 1.273 Rising
Falcons 17 16 17 20 15 16 18 17 17 18 18 17.182 5.262 Rising
49ers 19 15 21 18 19 17 21 19 16 20 19 18.546 6.121 Rising
Lions 20 18 22 23 18 22 16 23 19 15 20 19.636 -6.192 Falling
Jets 21 20 18 19 21 26 20 20 25 21 21 21.091 3.687 Rising
Giants 24 23 19 25 24 24 22 21 24 22 22 22.727 -2.616 Falling
Saints 22 24 26 22 23 23 23 24 21 23 24 23.182 -3.182 Falling
Vikings 25 26 24 21 22 20 24 22 22 27 25 23.455 -7.899 Falling
Titans 23 21 23 26 27 25 26 25 27 25 23 24.636 5.475 Rising
Texans 26 25 27 24 25 21 25 26 23 24 26 24.727 -6.838 Falling
Bears 27 27 25 27 26 28 27 27 26 26 27 26.636 -0.858 Falling
Redskins 29 28 30 28 29 30 29 28 28 29 28 28.727 2.273 Rising
Jaguars 30 31 28 29 30 27 28 29 31 31 29 29.364 -0.920 Falling
Browns 28 32 29 32 28 29 31 30 29 28 31 29.727 -1.727 Falling
Raiders 31 29 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 30 30 30.364 -2.586 Falling
Buccaneers 32 30 32 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 31.727 -2.060 Falling

Observations:

  • Patriots and Packers duking it out at the top, with the Patriots successfully defending their throne this week. Both teams face big tests this week, with the Patriots heading to Buffalo and the Packers hosting the Seahawks.
  • Broncos actually jumped 1.333 spots this week, despite the less-than-convincing win on Sunday.
  • Rams and Bills made statements, and pundits noticed.
  • Seahawks, Ravens, and Eagles all dropping out of the sky. Cardinals and Falcons climbing quickly.
  • Steelers and Colts also dropping considerably. And the Vikings ... woof.
  • Chargers impressed a bit, cracking into the top-12.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit AP STD DEV Change in Value
Packers 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 0.445 -0.471 Falling
Patriots 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0.445 -0.549 Falling
Buccaneers 32 30 32 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.617 -0.947 Falling
Raiders 31 29 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 30 30 0.643 -0.387 Falling
Redskins 29 28 30 28 29 30 29 28 28 29 28 0.750 -0.193 Falling
Bears 27 27 25 27 26 28 27 27 26 26 27 0.771 -1.325 Falling
Saints 22 24 26 22 23 23 23 24 21 23 24 1.266 -0.995 Falling
Falcons 17 16 17 20 15 16 18 17 17 18 18 1.266 -0.626 Falling
Jaguars 30 31 28 29 30 27 28 29 31 31 29 1.298 -1.017 Falling
Browns 28 32 29 32 28 29 31 30 29 28 31 1.483 -0.921 Falling
Texans 26 25 27 24 25 21 25 26 23 24 26 1.601 -0.682 Falling
Giants 24 23 19 25 24 24 22 21 24 22 22 1.656 -2.519 Falling
Cardinals 6 5 4 10 4 8 5 6 4 6 6 1.749 0.185 Rising
Broncos 4 3 6 3 3 3 9 3 3 4 3 1.809 -0.135 Falling
Titans 23 21 23 26 27 25 26 25 27 25 23 1.823 -0.555 Falling
49ers 19 15 21 18 19 17 21 19 16 20 19 1.827 0.413 Rising
Vikings 25 26 24 21 22 20 24 22 22 27 25 2.105 0.682 Rising
Colts 11 10 13 6 11 11 10 7 10 9 14 2.208 0.613 Rising
Cowboys 5 4 3 11 6 4 8 4 7 5 4 2.231 0.020 Rising
Jets 21 20 18 19 21 26 20 20 25 21 21 2.275 -0.118 Falling
Seahawks 3 6 10 4 5 9 3 5 8 3 5 2.350 -0.237 Falling
Bengals 8 12 5 7 7 10 7 13 11 7 7 2.426 0.977 Rising
Chargers 10 13 16 15 8 15 11 15 14 11 10 2.536 -0.003 Falling
Lions 20 18 22 23 18 22 16 23 19 15 20 2.603 -0.230 Falling
Bills 9 7 12 8 10 5 6 14 6 10 8 2.603 -1.625 Falling
Dolphins 16 8 14 13 12 12 14 10 18 16 15 2.742 -0.125 Falling
Rams 14 9 15 9 14 13 12 18 15 17 11 2.805 0.993 Rising
Panthers 18 22 11 17 17 18 15 11 20 19 16 3.250 -0.722 Falling
Ravens 12 14 9 5 13 6 17 12 13 12 12 3.310 0.374 Rising
Steelers 13 19 8 14 20 14 13 9 12 13 13 3.394 -0.291 Falling
Chiefs 7 11 7 16 9 7 4 16 5 8 9 3.766 0.298 Rising
Eagles 15 17 20 12 16 19 19 8 9 14 17 3.825 1.076 Rising

Observations:

  • Didn't take long to reach consensus at either end of the board, it seems.
  • Overall, standard deviation went down this week for each team, so there is consensus starting to form already.
  • What to make of the Eagles?

Objective Average

Objective
FO TR SAG BG Aikman CHFF Massey ARGH FPI Average Change in Value
Packers 4 3 1 8 8 4 5 5 1 4.333 -0.583 Falling
Patriots 1 1 4 11 10 8 1 1 2 4.333 -2.083 Falling
Broncos 3 4 2 12 5 13 2 3 6 5.556 -2.556 Falling
Bengals 5 7 5 3 6 3 11 7 7 6.000 5.750 Rising
Seahawks 2 2 3 19 18 4 2 3 6.625 -5.375 Falling
Chiefs 7 6 9 9 11 6 3 4 11 7.333 0.167 Rising
Cardinals 15 15 10 6 3 7 10 6 12 9.333 2.917 Rising
Bills 17 14 11 5 7 1 6 9 14 9.333 4.667 Rising
Jets 9 17 18 2 1 5 19 25 16 12.444 11.056 Rising
Cowboys 18 13 8 16 14 16 7 14 8 12.667 -3.167 Falling
Chargers 8 11 15 13 16 14 9 11 17 12.667 0.583 Rising
Eagles 12 9 12 18 12 18 18 10 5 12.667 -5.417 Falling
49ers 16 22 21 4 4 9 13 8 21 13.111 6.389 Rising
Dolphins 21 8 7 10 24 11 14 16 13 13.778 -1.278 Falling
Ravens 11 10 6 21 28 20 8 17 9 14.444 -5.444 Falling
Panthers 20 18 20 7 13 10 17 12 15 14.667 4.333 Rising
Rams 6 16 17 14 15 15 21 19 15.375 5.625 Rising
Steelers 10 12 14 23 23 22 16 18 10 16.444 -3.444 Falling
Lions 14 20 16 20 17 12 20 13 20 16.889 -4.139 Falling
Colts 19 5 13 28 26 30 12 15 4 16.889 -10.389 Falling
Titans 25 26 27 1 2 2 28 29 25 18.333 12.917 Rising
Falcons 13 25 22 15 21 15 21 23 23 19.778 4.472 Rising
Giants 23 21 19 17 19 17 23 24 24 20.778 0.472 Rising
Texans 27 23 23 22 22 24 22 19 18 22.222 -2.972 Falling
Vikings 22 19 25 29 29 19 25 20 26 23.778 -6.028 Falling
Saints 24 24 24 27 30 26 24 22 22 24.778 -3.778 Falling
Redskins 31 29 28 24 9 21 30 28 28 25.333 3.667 Rising
Bears 26 27 26 25 25 27 26 26 27 26.111 -0.611 Falling
Jaguars 30 31 31 26 20 23 31 31 29 28.000 3.500 Rising
Browns 28 28 29 31 32 28 27 27 30 28.889 -2.389 Falling
Raiders 29 30 30 30 27 25 29 30 31 29.000 -0.500 Falling
Buccaneers 32 32 32 32 31 29 32 32 32 31.556 -1.806 Falling

Observations:

  • I've added a new source: ESPN's Football Power Index.
  • You'll notice CHFF is missing rankings for the Seahawks and Rams. For some reason this week, they only listed 30 teams.
  • These objective ratings should be taken with a grain of salt overall. Some individual rankings can be reliable, for the most part our sample size is just too small to put a lot of stock in these rankings.
  • BeatGraphs was neat this week. You'll notice the opponents who played each other this week are on opposing ends of the spectrum. Titans 1st, Buccaneers 32nd. Jets 2nd, Browns 31st. Chargers 13th, Lions 20th and so on.
  • Packers and Patriots neck-and-neck this week. This is likely to change.
  • Football Outsiders' ranking is based on DAVE this week.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
FO TR SAG BG Aikman CHFF Massey ARGH FPI STD DEV Change in Value
Bears 26 27 26 25 25 27 26 26 27 0.737 -1.325 Falling
Buccaneers 32 32 32 32 31 29 32 32 32 0.956 0.127 Rising
Browns 28 28 29 31 32 28 27 27 30 1.663 1.163 Rising
Raiders 29 30 30 30 27 25 29 30 31 1.764 1.264 Rising
Bengals 5 7 5 3 6 3 11 7 7 2.309 0.389 Rising
Saints 24 24 24 27 30 26 24 22 22 2.393 1.168 Rising
Packers 4 3 1 8 8 4 5 5 1 2.404 1.314 Rising
Texans 27 23 23 22 22 24 22 19 18 2.485 1.006 Rising
Giants 23 21 19 17 19 17 23 24 24 2.699 0.779 Rising
Chiefs 7 6 9 9 11 6 3 4 11 2.708 0.208 Rising
Chargers 8 11 15 13 16 14 9 11 17 2.944 1.645 Rising
Lions 14 20 16 20 17 12 20 13 20 3.107 -0.455 Falling
Vikings 22 19 25 29 29 19 25 20 26 3.735 1.149 Rising
Cowboys 18 13 8 16 14 16 7 14 8 3.801 0.929 Rising
Jaguars 30 31 31 26 20 23 31 31 29 3.859 3.359 Rising
Broncos 3 4 2 12 5 13 2 3 6 3.919 3.919 Rising
Cardinals 15 15 10 6 3 7 10 6 12 3.944 0.675 Rising
Patriots 1 1 4 11 10 8 1 1 2 3.944 2.854 Rising
Falcons 13 25 22 15 21 15 21 23 23 4.049 2.750 Rising
Rams 6 16 17 14 15 15 21 19 4.151 1.069 Rising
Panthers 20 18 20 7 13 10 17 12 15 4.269 1.441 Rising
Eagles 12 9 12 18 12 18 18 10 5 4.295 2.996 Rising
Bills 17 14 11 5 7 1 6 9 14 4.831 2.092 Rising
Steelers 10 12 14 23 23 22 16 18 10 5.036 1.954 Rising
Dolphins 21 8 7 10 24 11 14 16 13 5.412 1.381 Rising
Redskins 31 29 28 24 9 21 30 28 28 6.464 5.464 Rising
49ers 16 22 21 4 4 9 13 8 21 6.839 1.249 Rising
Seahawks 2 2 3 19 18 4 2 3 6.891 6.458 Rising
Ravens 11 10 6 21 28 20 8 17 9 6.978 2.677 Rising
Jets 9 17 18 2 1 5 19 25 16 7.974 5.795 Rising
Colts 19 5 13 28 26 30 12 15 4 9.024 6.962 Rising
Titans 25 26 27 1 2 2 28 29 25 11.851 11.022 Rising

Observations:

  • Surprisingly good consensus of the Bears at ~26th, and Buccaneers as the bottom team.
  • Bengals have pretty good consensus around ~6th (can you say statement game for the Chargers in week 2?)
  • Titans with a standard deviation of almost 12. That's to be expected when your rankings run anywhere from 1st to 29th.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Average Change in Value
Patriots 1.273 4.333 2.803 -0.622 Falling
Packers 1.727 4.333 3.030 0.234 Rising
Broncos 4.000 5.556 4.778 -0.611 Falling
Seahawks 5.546 6.625 6.085 -4.182 Falling
Bengals 8.546 6.000 7.273 4.546 Rising
Cardinals 5.818 9.333 7.576 3.216 Rising
Chiefs 9.000 7.333 8.167 2.305 Rising
Bills 8.636 9.333 8.985 6.571 Rising
Cowboys 5.546 12.667 9.106 -1.189 Falling
Chargers 12.546 12.667 12.606 1.352 Rising
Ravens 11.364 14.444 12.904 -4.793 Falling
Colts 10.182 16.889 13.535 -7.841 Falling
Dolphins 13.455 13.778 13.616 -0.699 Falling
Eagles 15.091 12.667 13.879 -5.421 Falling
Rams 13.364 15.375 14.369 6.742 Rising
Steelers 13.455 16.444 14.949 -4.227 Falling
Panthers 16.727 14.667 15.697 2.803 Rising
49ers 18.546 13.111 15.828 6.255 Rising
Jets 21.091 12.444 16.768 7.371 Rising
Lions 19.636 16.889 18.263 -5.166 Falling
Falcons 17.182 19.778 18.480 4.867 Rising
Titans 24.636 18.333 21.485 9.196 Rising
Giants 22.727 20.778 21.753 -1.072 Falling
Texans 24.727 22.222 23.475 -4.906 Falling
Vikings 23.455 23.778 23.616 -6.963 Falling
Saints 23.182 24.778 23.980 -3.480 Falling
Bears 26.636 26.111 26.374 -0.735 Falling
Redskins 28.727 25.333 27.030 2.970 Rising
Jaguars 29.364 28.000 28.682 1.290 Rising
Browns 29.727 28.889 29.308 -2.058 Falling
Raiders 30.364 29.000 29.682 -1.543 Falling
Buccaneers 31.727 31.556 31.641 -1.933 Falling

Observations:

  • Patriots take the overall crown, but just barely, remaining only .167 spots ahead of the Packers.
  • Sharp delineation between the Cowboys and Chargers, and Falcons and Titans.
  • 9 of the top 13 teams are AFC teams. 8 of the bottom 13 teams are NFC teams.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg STD DEV Change in Value
Buccaneers 31.727 31.556 0.792 -0.588 Falling
Bears 26.636 26.111 0.800 -1.290 Falling
Raiders 30.364 29.000 1.445 0.484 Rising
Browns 29.727 28.889 1.621 -0.514 Falling
Saints 23.182 24.778 2.022 -0.031 Falling
Packers 1.727 4.333 2.095 1.024 Rising
Giants 22.727 20.778 2.393 -1.278 Falling
Texans 24.727 22.222 2.396 0.234 Rising
Bengals 8.546 6.000 2.691 1.081 Rising
Chargers 12.546 12.667 2.728 0.402 Rising
Jaguars 29.364 28.000 2.844 0.441 Rising
Vikings 23.455 23.778 2.956 0.838 Rising
Broncos 4.000 5.556 3.051 1.108 Rising
Patriots 1.273 4.333 3.070 2.044 Rising
Falcons 17.182 19.778 3.151 1.229 Rising
Lions 19.636 16.889 3.153 0.061 Rising
Cardinals 5.818 9.333 3.426 0.820 Rising
Chiefs 9.000 7.333 3.433 -0.783 Falling
Rams 13.364 15.375 3.577 1.295 Rising
Bills 8.636 9.333 3.788 -0.304 Falling
Panthers 16.727 14.667 3.881 0.193 Rising
Dolphins 13.455 13.778 4.164 0.871 Rising
Eagles 15.091 12.667 4.219 1.574 Rising
Steelers 13.455 16.444 4.468 0.376 Rising
Cowboys 5.546 12.667 4.668 1.829 Rising
Redskins 28.727 25.333 4.686 3.354 Rising
Seahawks 5.546 6.625 4.845 2.597 Rising
49ers 18.546 13.111 5.495 1.410 Rising
Ravens 11.364 14.444 5.503 1.991 Rising
Jets 21.091 12.444 7.068 4.665 Rising
Colts 10.182 16.889 7.104 5.201 Rising
Titans 24.636 18.333 8.652 6.554 Rising

Observations:

  • Overall Standard Deviation grew this week, but that's because we have a lot more objective rankings this week, and they're more prone to individual swings at this point.
  • Buccaneers: your Week 1 disappointment.
  • Much more consensus on who's bad than who's good. 9 of the 12 most consistently-ranked teams are in the bottom 22 of the league.
  • Titans, Colts, and Jets are all over the board.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Diff. in Avg Change in Value
Cowboys 5.546 12.667 7.121 3.954 Rising
Colts 10.182 16.889 6.707 5.096 Rising
Cardinals 5.818 9.333 3.515 0.598 Rising
Ravens 11.364 14.444 3.081 1.303 Rising
Patriots 1.273 4.333 3.061 2.922 Rising
Steelers 13.455 16.444 2.990 -1.566 Rising
Packers 1.727 4.333 2.606 1.634 Rising
Falcons 17.182 19.778 2.596 0.790 Rising
Rams 13.364 15.375 2.011 2.233 Rising
Saints 23.182 24.778 1.596 0.596 Rising
Broncos 4.000 5.556 1.556 3.889 Rising
Seahawks 5.546 6.625 1.080 2.386 Rising
Bills 8.636 9.333 0.697 3.808 Rising
Vikings 23.455 23.778 0.323 -1.871 Rising
Dolphins 13.455 13.778 0.323 1.156 Rising
Chargers 12.546 12.667 0.121 1.538 Rising
Buccaneers 31.727 31.556 -0.172 -0.255 Rising
Bears 26.636 26.111 -0.525 -0.247 Rising
Browns 29.727 28.889 -0.838 0.662 Rising
Jaguars 29.364 28.000 -1.364 -4.420 Rising
Raiders 30.364 29.000 -1.364 -2.086 Rising
Chiefs 9.000 7.333 -1.667 4.277 Rising
Giants 22.727 20.778 -1.950 -3.089 Rising
Panthers 16.727 14.667 -2.061 -3.061 Rising
Eagles 15.091 12.667 -2.424 -0.007 Rising
Texans 24.727 22.222 -2.505 -3.866 Rising
Bengals 8.546 6.000 -2.546 -2.407 Rising
Lions 19.636 16.889 -2.748 -2.054 Rising
Redskins 28.727 25.333 -3.394 -1.394 Rising
49ers 18.546 13.111 -5.434 -0.267 Rising
Titans 24.636 18.333 -6.303 -7.442 Rising
Jets 21.091 12.444 -8.647 -7.369 Rising

Observations:

  • Cowboys and Colts were not too impressive in their first game as far as the stat-heads are concerned.
  • Titans, Jets, and 49ers may surprise a lot of people. Teams that have been easy to discount and dismiss this year seemingly played better in week 1 than people want to give them credit.
  • Chargers are right where they should be, with only 0.121 spots separating the Subjective from the Objective.

Sources

Subjective Objective
ESPN Football Outsiders
Fox Team Rankings
CBS Sagarin
USA Today BeatGraphs
Sports Illustrated Aikman Efficiency
ProFootballTalk Cold Hard Football Facts
NFL.com Massey
SportingNews ARGH
SB Nation Football Power Index
Reddit
Associated Press

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