Author's Note: The post has been updated to accommodate information which was not known to the author at the time of posting, and /or made assumptions based on unsubstantiated information. This was a research failure on the part of the author, and areas of the post will be marked with an asterisk (*) to indicate where changes have been made.
Let's assume for the moment that the Carson Stadium project is selected by the NFL at the end of 2015. I'll be the 1st one to say that the project (financially speaking) should be financially viable with both the Chargers and Raiders sharing the facility from the beginning.
However, if I was the Chargers, I wouldn't feel too confident about Mark Davis as a potential partner.
So, the real question behind Carson is whether or not the Chargers can afford Carson on their own.
What do the Chargers take into Carson right now?
*Changes in the NFL Loan Program
Personal Seat Licenses.
Sponsorship Deals and Miscellaneous Revenue.
*Total Revenues against Stadium Cost
|Carson Stadium Project||$$$ in millions|
*The Other Costs of Moving to Los Angeles
- High End: $2.41 billion.
- Middle: $2.285 billion.
- Low End: $2.16 billion.
|Carson Stadium project||$$$ (in millions)|
|Total Relocation Cost|
|Revenues||High ($2,410)||Middle ($2,285)||Low ($2,160)|
Based on all the information above, I think the Carson deal works if the costs are shared by two franchises.
On the other hand, if the Chargers attempt to make this move on their own, there's not a ton of room for error. There's not enough money coming in to cover the total relocation costs for the Chargers unless they reach the high end of revenue projections, and the Spanos family doesn't have the financial backstop to make it work if things don't go perfectly, without potentially giving up a significant part of the franchise. If the Spanos family wanted to do that, they'd have made the Farmers' Field deal years ago.
Until the Chargers produce their financing plan, and they have hard commitments for potential revenue, we can't accept their plan to move to Carson is a much of a slam-dunk as it might otherwise seem.