SB Nation

John Crean | December 3, 2015

2015 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 13

Do Panthers Belong on Top?

After another two-week hiatus, everyone's favorite power rankings breakdown is back, with a belly full of turkey and sweet potatoes.

The Patriots lost their first game of the season, dashing everyone's hopes of an 18-0 v 18-0 Super Bowl. As such, this leaves the Carolina Panthers as  the sole undefeated team left in the league. Clearly, that means they're the best time, right? The pundits all seem to think so, as the Panthers are now the unanimous top team in the subjective rankings list.

Do they belong there? Are they the best team in the league? maybe not, depending on whom you ask. 538 sports points out that this is the worst 11-0 team the league has seen based on Elo Points. And some "objective" rankings have the Panthers as low as 8th. Does this make them the worst team in the league? Hardly. Just means they might not be the best this year.

But one thing worth pointing out, the "objective" rankings tend to be a little slow to react to recent trends. So the Panthers very well could be the best team in the league right now, they just haven't played like the best team this season.

Notable Quotes

Melvin Gordon has 170 touches, zero touchdowns. The rookie scores less than Poindexter in "Revenge of the Nerds."

The Chargers can win games this season only when they score 30. They're 3-0 when scoring 30 or more points and 0-8 when scoring fewer than 30.

The Chargers are so bad that beating the Jaguars is actually an upset.

Division Averages

Division Week 11 Average Week 13 Average Difference
NFC North 15.793 13.000 2.793
AFC East 10.293 13.283 -2.990
AFC West 15.696 13.685 2.011
NFC West 15.380 15.728 -0.348
AFC North 16.620 16.609 0.011
NFC South 16.022 16.957 -0.935
AFC South 23.641 21.087 2.554
NFC East 18.554 21.652 -3.098

Stock Rising

Team Week 11 Average Week 13 Average Difference
DET 28.348 20.530 7.818
HOU 20.742 13.307 7.435
KC 11.576 7.360 4.216
TB 24.875 21.068 3.807
CHI 19.557 15.807 3.750

Stock Falling

Team Week 11 Average Week 13 Average Difference
PHI 15.545 23.920 -8.375
ATL 12.087 17.841 -5.754
MIA 18.962 24.277 -5.315
STL 18.735 22.917 -4.182
NYG 13.595 17.750 -4.155

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit PFF AP Average Change in Value
Panthers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.917 Rising
Patriots 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 2.250 -1.167 Falling
Cardinals 4 3 3 4 4 5 3 4 5 2 4 3 3.667 -0.250 Falling
Broncos 3 5 5 3 5 2 5 3 2 5 5 4 3.917 3.000 Rising
Bengals 5 4 4 5 3 4 4 5 4 4 3 5 4.167 -0.250 Falling
Vikings 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 6 6.333 -1.583 Falling
Seahawks 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 13 7 8.083 4.750 Rising
Packers 8 10 7 6 12 7 6 8 10 8 7 9 8.167 -0.334 Falling
Chiefs 10 7 11 10 6 9 10 10 6 10 12 8 9.083 6.250 Rising
Steelers 9 11 9 9 9 10 9 11 9 9 11 10 9.667 -2.084 Falling
Texans 11 9 12 11 11 12 11 12 12 13 9 12 11.250 9.417 Rising
Colts 14 12 10 17 10 11 12 9 13 12 16 11 12.250 5.000 Rising
Jets 12 13 13 16 15 15 14 13 11 11 18 13 13.667 -1.334 Falling
Bills 19 17 19 14 13 14 13 16 15 14 15 16 15.417 -5.750 Falling
Bears 20 15 14 21 14 16 15 17 14 15 19 15 16.250 1.500 Rising
Redskins 13 14 15 12 16 17 19 19 17 18 24 14 16.500 2.667 Rising
Raiders 16 23 18 15 17 13 17 18 16 19 10 17 16.583 -2.250 Falling
Giants 18 16 17 13 19 18 16 15 18 17 25 18 17.500 -4.583 Falling
Falcons 15 19 16 19 23 19 21 14 21 16 8 19 17.500 -7.417 Falling
Buccaneers 17 18 20 18 18 20 18 20 19 20 26 20 19.500 3.250 Rising
Lions 21 20 21 20 21 21 20 22 20 21 28 21 21.333 7.000 Rising
Rams 26 22 23 25 20 23 30 26 23 23 22 23 23.833 -6.000 Falling
Dolphins 23 29 24 24 25 24 22 21 22 22 27 24 23.917 -5.084 Falling
Eagles 24 30 25 27 30 26 24 23 25 24 17 22 24.750 -5.750 Falling
Saints 22 32 26 28 24 27 23 27 24 25 20 27 25.417 -2.000 Falling
Ravens 25 27 30 31 28 22 25 25 28 27 14 25 25.583 2.000 Rising
Cowboys 29 21 22 30 22 30 26 28 26 28 21 26 25.750 1.750 Rising
Jaguars 28 28 28 23 27 25 29 24 30 26 23 29 26.667 -0.584 Falling
Chargers 27 25 27 22 26 28 27 29 29 29 32 28 27.417 1.333 Rising
49ers 31 24 29 29 29 29 28 30 27 30 31 30 28.917 -1.667 Falling
Titans 30 26 31 26 31 31 31 31 31 32 30 31 30.083 -0.583 Falling
Browns 32 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 31 29 32 31.583 -0.166 Falling

Observations:

  • Guess the pundits aren't too concerned about the Broncos' loss of Peyton Manning.
  • If the Panthers and Bengals meet in this years Super Bowl, will they bill it as the "Kitty Bowl" to compete with the "Puppy Bowl"?
  • I had been saying for weeks that people were sleeping on the Seahawks, and they were just waiting to breakout.
  • On the flipside, I had been saying people were sleeping on the Eagles. Way to prove me wrong, Chip!
  • Chargers the 4th-worst team in the league? Eh, I'll allow it.
  • AFC bookends the rankings, with the NFC mostly making up the middle.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit PFF AP STD DEV Change in Value
Panthers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 -0.276 Falling
Patriots 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 0.433 0.157 Rising
Vikings 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 6 0.471 -0.251 Falling
Bengals 5 4 4 5 3 4 4 5 4 4 3 5 0.687 -0.072 Falling
Cardinals 4 3 3 4 4 5 3 4 5 2 4 3 0.850 0.357 Rising
Steelers 9 11 9 9 9 10 9 11 9 9 11 10 0.850 -0.755 Falling
Browns 32 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 31 29 32 0.862 -0.253 Falling
Texans 11 9 12 11 11 12 11 12 12 13 9 12 1.164 -1.228 Falling
Broncos 3 5 5 3 5 2 5 3 2 5 5 4 1.187 0.149 Rising
Seahawks 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 13 7 1.552 -0.715 Falling
Packers 8 10 7 6 12 7 6 8 10 8 7 9 1.724 0.206 Rising
Chiefs 10 7 11 10 6 9 10 10 6 10 12 8 1.847 -2.097 Falling
49ers 31 24 29 29 29 29 28 30 27 30 31 30 1.847 -0.503 Falling
Titans 30 26 31 26 31 31 31 31 31 32 30 31 1.891 -0.088 Falling
Jets 12 13 13 16 15 15 14 13 11 11 18 13 1.972 0.272 Rising
Bills 19 17 19 14 13 14 13 16 15 14 15 16 1.977 0.431 Rising
Lions 21 20 21 20 21 21 20 22 20 21 28 21 2.095 0.209 Rising
Dolphins 23 29 24 24 25 24 22 21 22 22 27 24 2.178 -0.161 Falling
Buccaneers 17 18 20 18 18 20 18 20 19 20 26 20 2.217 0.171 Rising
Colts 14 12 10 17 10 11 12 9 13 12 16 11 2.314 -0.489 Falling
Jaguars 28 28 28 23 27 25 29 24 30 26 23 29 2.321 1.001 Rising
Bears 20 15 14 21 14 16 15 17 14 15 19 15 2.350 -0.171 Falling
Chargers 27 25 27 22 26 28 27 29 29 29 32 28 2.361 0.120 Rising
Rams 26 22 23 25 20 23 30 26 23 23 22 23 2.478 -0.653 Falling
Giants 18 16 17 13 19 18 16 15 18 17 25 18 2.754 -0.472 Falling
Saints 22 32 26 28 24 27 23 27 24 25 20 27 3.013 1.259 Rising
Raiders 16 23 18 15 17 13 17 18 16 19 10 17 3.040 0.202 Rising
Redskins 13 14 15 12 16 17 19 19 17 18 24 14 3.149 0.296 Rising
Cowboys 29 21 22 30 22 30 26 28 26 28 21 26 3.295 1.358 Rising
Eagles 24 30 25 27 30 26 24 23 25 24 17 22 3.345 0.054 Rising
Falcons 15 19 16 19 23 19 21 14 21 16 8 19 3.841 0.884 Rising
Ravens 25 27 30 31 28 22 25 25 28 27 14 25 4.212 -0.194 Falling

Observations:

  • The top 6 is pretty well set, excepting the Broncos.
  • 6 of the 9 most consistently-ranked teams are AFC. 8 of the 11 least consistently-ranked teams are NFC.
  • PFF, yet again, woof. The Falcons 8th? Honestly?  Raiders 10th? Ravens 14th? Okay that last one I can almost believe.

Objective Average

Objective
FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI Average Change in Value
Patriots 5 1 1 9 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 2.364 -1.364 Falling
Panthers 3 8 5 2 1 5 4 1 2 2 3 3.273 0.909 Rising
Bengals 2 3 2 6 4 2 2 4 3 6 4 3.455 -0.182 Falling
Cardinals 6 7 3 3 5 3 3 5 5 3 2 4.091 0.182 Rising
Broncos 7 2 4 1 8 6 8 3 4 4 9 5.091 2.182 Rising
Chiefs 1 5 6 10 7 4 5 6 6 7 5 5.636 2.182 Rising
Seahawks 4 4 8 7 6 9 7 9 9 5 6 6.727 2.546 Rising
Packers 9 6 7 4 10 7 10 8 7 8 8 7.636 0.000 No Change
Vikings 11 10 10 5 9 10 9 7 8 9 13 9.182 1.545 Rising
Steelers 8 9 9 12 11 8 13 10 10 10 7 9.727 -1.909 Falling
Jets 10 13 13 16 2 12 6 16 13 17 10 11.636 -1.636 Falling
Bills 13 12 11 11 14 11 11 15 12 13 11 12.182 -1.909 Falling
Bears 14 23 15 8 21 13 17 11 11 19 17 15.364 6.000 Rising
Texans 20 17 14 22 12 15 16 12 15 12 14 15.364 5.454 Rising
Colts 19 11 12 18 23 16 22 13 14 11 12 15.546 2.363 Rising
Raiders 12 25 20 14 15 14 14 17 17 24 21 17.546 2.545 Rising
Ravens 17 14 17 20 22 17 20 20 20 14 16 17.909 3.273 Rising
Giants 21 15 16 15 20 18 18 21 19 15 20 18.000 -3.727 Falling
Falcons 25 20 19 19 13 20 12 18 16 20 18 18.182 -4.091 Falling
Lions 18 22 18 13 27 21 28 14 18 16 22 19.727 8.637 Rising
Redskins 15 26 23 25 17 22 19 23 22 22 26 21.818 -2.727 Falling
Rams 22 18 21 26 19 19 21 19 21 26 30 22.000 -2.364 Falling
Buccaneers 16 28 27 27 16 25 15 22 23 25 25 22.636 4.364 Rising
Eagles 24 16 22 29 28 24 23 27 25 21 15 23.091 -11.000 Falling
Chargers 27 24 26 21 18 23 26 24 24 27 24 24.000 0.818 Rising
Dolphins 23 19 25 24 29 26 25 26 27 28 19 24.636 -5.545 Falling
Cowboys 29 21 24 32 24 28 27 30 30 18 23 26.000 -2.000 Falling
Jaguars 26 31 30 23 30 27 30 25 26 31 28 27.909 -0.182 Falling
49ers 32 29 29 17 32 30 31 28 29 23 32 28.364 0.182 Rising
Saints 31 27 28 31 26 32 24 29 28 29 29 28.546 -3.273 Falling
Titans 28 32 32 30 25 31 29 32 32 32 27 30.000 -0.727 Falling
Browns 30 30 31 28 31 29 32 31 31 30 31 30.364 -0.546 Falling

Observations:

  • Despite the loss, Patriots remain on the top of the list.
  • Panthers in second, but only 2 votes for 1st place.
  • Chiefs at the top of the Weighted DVOA list this week.
  • Aikman's formula is still in love with the Jets.
  • Lions and Texans and Bears, oh my. All three teams are surging, jumping 8.6, 6, and 5.4 spots the last two weeks, respectively.
  • Eagles dropping 11 spots in the last two weeks, making me look foolish.
  • Top half of the league is split 10-6 in favor of the AFC. The opposite is true in the bottom half.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI STD DEV Change in Value
Browns 30 30 31 28 31 29 32 31 31 30 31 1.068 -0.924 Falling
Bills 13 12 11 11 14 11 11 15 12 13 11 1.336 -0.668 Falling
Bengals 2 3 2 6 4 2 2 4 3 6 4 1.437 0.385 Rising
Cardinals 6 7 3 3 5 3 3 5 5 3 2 1.505 -3.207 Falling
Packers 9 6 7 4 10 7 10 8 7 8 8 1.666 -0.478 Falling
Steelers 8 9 9 12 11 8 13 10 10 10 7 1.710 -0.039 Falling
Seahawks 4 4 8 7 6 9 7 9 9 5 6 1.814 -2.557 Falling
Vikings 11 10 10 5 9 10 9 7 8 9 13 1.992 -1.368 Falling
Panthers 3 8 5 2 1 5 4 1 2 2 3 2.004 0.255 Rising
Chiefs 1 5 6 10 7 4 5 6 6 7 5 2.101 0.301 Rising
Saints 31 27 28 31 26 32 24 29 28 29 29 2.231 -0.222 Falling
Giants 21 15 16 15 20 18 18 21 19 15 20 2.296 -1.037 Falling
Titans 28 32 32 30 25 31 29 32 32 32 27 2.336 0.036 Rising
Patriots 5 1 1 9 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 2.422 2.422 Rising
Ravens 17 14 17 20 22 17 20 20 20 14 16 2.539 -2.187 Falling
Broncos 7 2 4 1 8 6 8 3 4 4 9 2.539 -1.253 Falling
Chargers 27 24 26 21 18 23 26 24 24 27 24 2.558 -0.541 Falling
Jaguars 26 31 30 23 30 27 30 25 26 31 28 2.575 0.617 Rising
Dolphins 23 19 25 24 29 26 25 26 27 28 19 3.112 -0.713 Falling
Texans 20 17 14 22 12 15 16 12 15 12 14 3.112 -0.268 Falling
Redskins 15 26 23 25 17 22 19 23 22 22 26 3.380 -0.999 Falling
Falcons 25 20 19 19 13 20 12 18 16 20 18 3.406 0.469 Rising
Rams 22 18 21 26 19 19 21 19 21 26 30 3.593 -0.180 Falling
Cowboys 29 21 24 32 24 28 27 30 30 18 23 4.134 -1.018 Falling
Raiders 12 25 20 14 15 14 14 17 17 24 21 4.164 0.560 Rising
Colts 19 11 12 18 23 16 22 13 14 11 12 4.164 0.339 Rising
Eagles 24 16 22 29 28 24 23 27 25 21 15 4.274 1.275 Rising
Jets 10 13 13 16 2 12 6 16 13 17 10 4.291 0.091 Rising
Bears 14 23 15 8 21 13 17 11 11 19 17 4.354 2.482 Rising
49ers 32 29 29 17 32 30 31 28 29 23 32 4.354 0.777 Rising
Buccaneers 16 28 27 27 16 25 15 22 23 25 25 4.578 1.036 Rising
Lions 18 22 18 13 27 21 28 14 18 16 22 4.614 1.976 Rising

Observations:

  • Funny how there's greater consensus of the Bills ~12th than the Patriots or Panthers.
  • For consistency, it seems the Objective list is the opposite of the Subjective list with the NFC teams bookmarking the rankings and the AFC teams filling out the middle.
  • 17 teams saw consistency improve, 15 got worse.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Average Change in Value
Panthers 1.000 3.273 2.136 0.913 Rising
Patriots 2.250 2.364 2.307 -1.265 Falling
Bengals 4.167 3.455 3.811 -0.216 Falling
Cardinals 3.667 4.091 3.879 -0.034 Falling
Broncos 3.917 5.091 4.504 2.591 Rising
Chiefs 9.083 5.636 7.360 4.216 Rising
Seahawks 8.083 6.727 7.405 3.648 Rising
Vikings 6.333 9.182 7.758 -0.019 Falling
Packers 8.167 7.636 7.902 -0.167 Falling
Steelers 9.667 9.727 9.697 -1.996 Falling
Jets 13.667 11.636 12.652 -1.485 Falling
Texans 11.250 15.364 13.307 7.435 Rising
Bills 15.417 12.182 13.799 -3.829 Falling
Colts 12.250 15.546 13.898 3.682 Rising
Bears 16.250 15.364 15.807 3.750 Rising
Raiders 16.583 17.546 17.064 0.148 Rising
Giants 17.500 18.000 17.750 -4.155 Falling
Falcons 17.500 18.182 17.841 -5.754 Falling
Redskins 16.500 21.818 19.159 -0.030 Falling
Lions 21.333 19.727 20.530 7.818 Rising
Buccaneers 19.500 22.636 21.068 3.807 Rising
Ravens 25.583 17.909 21.746 2.637 Rising
Rams 23.833 22.000 22.917 -4.182 Falling
Eagles 24.750 23.091 23.920 -8.375 Falling
Dolphins 23.917 24.636 24.277 -5.315 Falling
Chargers 27.417 24.000 25.708 1.076 Rising
Cowboys 25.750 26.000 25.875 -0.125 Falling
Saints 25.417 28.546 26.981 -2.636 Falling
Jaguars 26.667 27.909 27.288 -0.383 Falling
49ers 28.917 28.364 28.640 -0.742 Falling
Titans 30.083 30.000 30.042 -0.656 Falling
Browns 31.583 30.364 30.973 -0.356 Falling

Observations:

  • Panthers just edge out the Patriots for the top spot overall, but it's close.
  • Interesting groupings: Panthers, Patriots; followed by Bengals, Cardinals; then Broncos. Then the next 4 teams.
  • The Chiefs are doing so well now, was Jamaal Charles holding them back? Was he their crutch and now they've had to find new ways to win?
  • All that early season hope in St. Louis seems to have faded.
  • So odd to see the Cowboys, Saints, and 49ers as the 3 worst teams in the NFC.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg STD DEV Change in Value
Browns 31.583 30.364 1.142 -0.642 Falling
Bengals 4.167 3.455 1.167 0.201 Rising
Cardinals 3.667 4.091 1.227 -2.079 Falling
Steelers 9.667 9.727 1.333 -0.346 Falling
Patriots 2.250 2.364 1.705 1.501 Rising
Packers 8.167 7.636 1.717 -0.130 Falling
Panthers 1.000 3.273 1.792 0.124 Rising
Seahawks 8.083 6.727 1.814 -2.057 Falling
Vikings 6.333 9.182 2.009 -1.810 Falling
Broncos 3.917 5.091 2.040 -0.693 Falling
Titans 30.083 30.000 2.116 -0.026 Falling
Bills 15.417 12.182 2.346 0.541 Rising
Jaguars 26.667 27.909 2.523 0.674 Rising
Giants 17.500 18.000 2.558 -0.789 Falling
Chiefs 9.083 5.636 2.618 -2.256 Falling
Dolphins 23.917 24.636 2.690 -0.451 Falling
Chargers 27.417 24.000 2.992 -0.335 Falling
Texans 11.250 15.364 3.092 0.184 Rising
Saints 25.417 28.546 3.092 0.781 Rising
Rams 23.833 22.000 3.196 -0.372 Falling
49ers 28.917 28.364 3.305 0.236 Rising
Jets 13.667 11.636 3.444 0.082 Rising
Bears 16.250 15.364 3.485 0.613 Rising
Lions 21.333 19.727 3.622 1.345 Rising
Raiders 16.583 17.546 3.653 -0.670 Falling
Falcons 17.500 18.182 3.655 0.092 Rising
Colts 12.250 15.546 3.714 0.367 Rising
Cowboys 25.750 26.000 3.722 -0.486 Falling
Buccaneers 19.500 22.636 3.879 0.316 Rising
Eagles 24.750 23.091 3.906 -0.770 Falling
Redskins 16.500 21.818 4.206 0.543 Rising
Ravens 25.583 17.909 5.200 -0.371 Falling


Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Diff. in Avg Change in Value
Redskins 16.500 21.818 5.318 5.394 Rising
Texans 11.250 15.364 4.114 3.962 Rising
Colts 12.250 15.546 3.296 2.637 Rising
Buccaneers 19.500 22.636 3.136 -1.114 Rising
Saints 25.417 28.546 3.129 1.273 Rising
Vikings 6.333 9.182 2.849 -3.128 Rising
Panthers 1.000 3.273 2.273 0.008 Rising
Jaguars 26.667 27.909 1.242 -0.402 Rising
Broncos 3.917 5.091 1.174 0.818 Rising
Raiders 16.583 17.546 0.962 -4.796 Rising
Dolphins 23.917 24.636 0.720 0.462 Rising
Falcons 17.500 18.182 0.682 -3.326 Rising
Giants 17.500 18.000 0.500 -0.856 Rising
Cardinals 3.667 4.091 0.424 -0.432 Rising
Cowboys 25.750 26.000 0.250 3.750 Rising
Patriots 2.250 2.364 0.114 0.197 Rising
Steelers 9.667 9.727 0.061 -0.174 Rising
Titans 30.083 30.000 -0.083 0.144 Rising
Packers 8.167 7.636 -0.530 -0.333 Rising
49ers 28.917 28.364 -0.553 -1.849 Rising
Bengals 4.167 3.455 -0.712 -0.068 Rising
Bears 16.250 15.364 -0.886 -4.500 Rising
Browns 31.583 30.364 -1.220 0.379 Rising
Seahawks 8.083 6.727 -1.356 2.205 Rising
Lions 21.333 19.727 -1.606 -1.636 Rising
Eagles 24.750 23.091 -1.659 5.250 Rising
Rams 23.833 22.000 -1.833 -3.636 Rising
Jets 13.667 11.636 -2.030 0.303 Rising
Bills 15.417 12.182 -3.235 -3.841 Rising
Chargers 27.417 24.000 -3.417 0.515 Rising
Chiefs 9.083 5.636 -3.447 4.068 Rising
Ravens 25.583 17.909 -7.674 -1.272 Rising

Observations:

  • Ravens continue to be at the bottom of this list, when will the pundits figure out that this is merely a mediocre team and not a bad one?
  • Chiefs continue to be under-ranked, but it's gotten significantly better. A couple more divisional wins and people might believe again.
  • Chargers seem to be under-ranked a bit as well, but then again I'd probably put them in the bottom-5 of the league myself.
  • The 5 most under-ranked teams are in the AFC, is this a case of higher expectations? Or are pundits trying to keep things even?

Sources

Subjective Objective
ESPN Football Outsiders
Fox Team Rankings
CBS Sagarin
USA Today BeatGraphs
Sports Illustrated Aikman Efficiency
ProFootballTalk Pro Football Reference
NFL.com Cold Hard Football Facts
SportingNews Massey
SB Nation ARGH
Reddit Five Thirty Eight
ProFootballFocus Football Power Index
Associated Press

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