SB Nation

John Crean | December 10, 2015

2015 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 14

The Haves and Have-Nots

A particular disparity has arisen in the league, with a clear distinction between the top 9 teams in the league, and everyone else.

Notable Quotes

The Chargers scored one field goal in each of their past two losses. Philip Rivers threw a pick-six in each game, meaning the offense generated more points for the opponent in each loss.

Tom Telesco should be very happy he got his extension before this season started.

The 2015 season ain't any lighter for the Chargers, who have the L.A. question, the future of their head coach and the speculation of whether the roster needs to be blown up hanging over their heads. Philip Rivers isn't getting any younger. Ditto Malcom Floyd, Antonio Gates and Eric Weddle. The offensive line isn't getting any better. With the talent in Denver, the talent in Kansas City and the (young) talent in Oakland, the future is not bright for the Bolts.

Division Averages

Division Week 13 Average Week 14 Average Difference
AFC East 13.283 12.435 0.848
NFC North 13.000 14.424 -1.424
AFC West 13.685 14.467 -0.782
NFC West 15.728 15.022 0.706
NFC South 16.957 16.413 0.544
AFC North 16.609 16.696 -0.087
NFC East 21.652 20.478 1.174
AFC South 21.087 22.065 -0.978

Stock Rising

Team Week 13 Average Week 14 Average Difference
PHI 23.920 18.818 5.102
TB 21.068 17.909 3.159
SF 28.640 25.614 3.026
DAL 25.875 22.977 2.898
BUF 13.799 11.500 2.299

Stock Falling

Team Week 13 Average Week 14 Average Difference
STL 22.917 26.201 -3.284
MIN 7.758 10.981 -3.223
IND 13.898 16.250 -2.352
BAL 21.746 23.739 -1.993
NE 2.307 4.295 -1.988

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit PFF AP Average Change in Value
Panthers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.000 No Change
Cardinals 2 2 2 2 4 4 2 3 4 2 4 2 2.750 0.917 Rising
Bengals 3 3 3 4 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 3.167 1.000 Rising
Broncos 4 5 4 5 3 2 4 2 2 4 5 3 3.583 0.334 Rising
Patriots 5 4 5 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 5 4.500 -2.250 Falling
Seahawks 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 8 6 6.417 1.666 Rising
Packers 7 9 6 8 10 6 8 7 10 7 6 9 7.750 0.417 Rising
Steelers 8 7 8 7 8 9 7 9 8 8 7 8 7.833 1.834 Rising
Chiefs 9 8 9 9 7 8 9 8 6 10 13 7 8.583 0.500 Rising
Vikings 11 11 10 10 12 11 10 10 11 9 10 10 10.417 -4.084 Falling
Jets 10 10 11 13 11 10 13 11 9 11 18 11 11.500 2.167 Rising
Bills 12 13 13 11 9 12 11 13 12 12 14 12 12.000 3.417 Rising
Texans 13 14 14 12 15 14 12 14 13 14 12 15 13.500 -2.250 Falling
Colts 16 16 12 16 14 13 14 12 15 13 20 13 14.500 -2.250 Falling
Buccaneers 14 12 15 17 13 15 15 15 14 15 21 14 15.000 4.500 Rising
Raiders 17 24 20 19 18 16 18 21 17 18 11 18 18.083 -1.500 Falling
Bears 21 21 16 22 16 17 16 20 16 16 19 20 18.333 -2.083 Falling
Redskins 18 15 17 14 17 19 19 22 19 20 24 17 18.417 -1.917 Falling
Eagles 19 17 23 21 19 18 22 17 21 19 16 16 19.000 5.750 Rising
Giants 20 18 18 15 23 20 17 18 22 17 27 19 19.500 -2.000 Falling
Falcons 15 20 19 18 27 21 25 16 23 21 9 21 19.583 -2.083 Falling
Dolphins 24 22 22 20 20 22 21 19 20 23 23 24 21.667 2.250 Rising
Lions 22 25 21 24 22 23 20 23 18 22 28 23 22.583 -1.250 Falling
Cowboys 23 23 24 28 21 25 26 25 24 24 17 22 23.500 2.250 Rising
49ers 26 19 26 29 25 24 24 26 26 25 31 25 25.500 3.417 Rising
Saints 25 30 27 27 24 29 23 24 25 26 22 26 25.667 -0.250 Falling
Rams 28 27 25 31 26 27 31 29 27 27 25 28 27.583 -3.750 Falling
Ravens 30 29 31 30 31 26 27 27 29 29 15 29 27.750 -2.167 Falling
Titans 27 26 28 26 29 30 28 31 28 30 29 27 28.250 1.833 Rising
Jaguars 29 31 30 25 30 28 30 28 31 28 26 30 28.833 -2.166 Falling
Chargers 31 28 29 23 28 31 29 30 30 31 32 31 29.417 -2.000 Falling
Browns 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 30 32 31.833 -0.250 Falling

Observations:

  • Panthers still undefeated, Panthers still at the top.
  • Patriots slipping to ~5th. I guess that'll happen when you lose two games in a row for the first time since 2012.
  • Nice cluster of NFC teams in the 18-27 block. The Dolphins are an AFC hot dog nestled in an NFC bun.
  • I'm just going to replace Pro Football Focus's header with this GIF:

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit PFF AP STD DEV Change in Value
Panthers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 0.000 No Change
Bengals 3 3 3 4 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 0.553 -0.134 Falling
Browns 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 30 32 0.553 -0.309 Falling
Seahawks 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 8 6 0.640 -0.912 Falling
Steelers 8 7 8 7 8 9 7 9 8 8 7 8 0.687 -0.163 Falling
Vikings 11 11 10 10 12 11 10 10 11 9 10 10 0.759 0.288 Rising
Cardinals 2 2 2 2 4 4 2 3 4 2 4 2 0.924 0.074 Rising
Patriots 5 4 5 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 5 0.957 0.524 Rising
Texans 13 14 14 12 15 14 12 14 13 14 12 15 1.041 -0.123 Falling
Broncos 4 5 4 5 3 2 4 2 2 4 5 3 1.115 -0.072 Falling
Bills 12 13 13 11 9 12 11 13 12 12 14 12 1.225 -0.752 Falling
Packers 7 9 6 8 10 6 8 7 10 7 6 9 1.422 -0.302 Falling
Titans 27 26 28 26 29 30 28 31 28 30 29 27 1.534 -0.357 Falling
Dolphins 24 22 22 20 20 22 21 19 20 23 23 24 1.599 -0.579 Falling
Chiefs 9 8 9 9 7 8 9 8 6 10 13 7 1.706 -0.141 Falling
Jaguars 29 31 30 25 30 28 30 28 31 28 26 30 1.818 -0.503 Falling
Rams 28 27 25 31 26 27 31 29 27 27 25 28 1.891 -0.587 Falling
Buccaneers 14 12 15 17 13 15 15 15 14 15 21 14 2.160 -0.057 Falling
Colts 16 16 12 16 14 13 14 12 15 13 20 13 2.179 -0.135 Falling
Eagles 19 17 23 21 19 18 22 17 21 19 16 16 2.236 -1.109 Falling
Saints 25 30 27 27 24 29 23 24 25 26 22 26 2.249 -0.764 Falling
Jets 10 10 11 13 11 10 13 11 9 11 18 11 2.255 0.283 Rising
Bears 21 21 16 22 16 17 16 20 16 16 19 20 2.285 -0.065 Falling
Chargers 31 28 29 23 28 31 29 30 30 31 32 31 2.290 -0.071 Falling
Lions 22 25 21 24 22 23 20 23 18 22 28 23 2.397 0.302 Rising
Cowboys 23 23 24 28 21 25 26 25 24 24 17 22 2.630 -0.665 Falling
Redskins 18 15 17 14 17 19 19 22 19 20 24 17 2.660 -0.489 Falling
49ers 26 19 26 29 25 24 24 26 26 25 31 25 2.754 0.907 Rising
Raiders 17 24 20 19 18 16 18 21 17 18 11 18 2.957 -0.083 Falling
Giants 20 18 18 15 23 20 17 18 22 17 27 19 3.096 0.342 Rising
Ravens 30 29 31 30 31 26 27 27 29 29 15 29 4.126 -0.086 Falling
Falcons 15 20 19 18 27 21 25 16 23 21 9 21 4.573 0.732 Rising

Observations:

  • A lot of consistency developing late in the season: only 8 teams saw their standard deviation increase this week. 23 teams saw theirs go down, and 1 stayed the same (Panthers, duh).
  • The 16 most consistenly-ranked teams are split 11-5 in favor of the AFC. The opposite is true of the bottom half. So clearly the AFC has pretty much been figured out by the pundits.

Objective Average

Objective
FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI Average Change in Value
Cardinals 5 4 1 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 1 2.546 1.545 Rising
Bengals 3 3 3 5 4 1 1 3 2 6 4 3.182 0.273 Rising
Panthers 4 8 5 1 2 7 6 1 1 2 5 3.818 -0.545 Falling
Patriots 6 1 4 11 5 3 3 5 4 1 2 4.091 -1.727 Falling
Seahawks 1 2 6 6 6 5 4 7 7 4 3 4.636 2.091 Rising
Broncos 8 5 2 3 8 8 9 4 5 5 9 6.000 -0.909 Falling
Chiefs 2 6 7 10 9 4 5 6 6 7 7 6.273 -0.637 Falling
Steelers 7 9 9 12 7 6 8 10 9 9 6 8.364 1.363 Rising
Packers 13 7 8 4 10 9 11 8 8 8 8 8.546 -0.910 Falling
Jets 9 12 12 16 1 11 7 14 12 15 10 10.818 0.818 Rising
Bills 11 10 10 13 12 10 10 12 11 11 11 11.000 1.182 Rising
Vikings 14 11 11 8 14 12 13 9 10 10 15 11.546 -2.364 Falling
Texans 16 17 14 20 11 15 16 13 13 14 13 14.727 0.637 Rising
Bears 18 23 18 9 18 13 20 11 14 22 19 16.818 -1.454 Falling
Colts 22 14 13 17 30 21 27 15 15 12 12 18.000 -2.454 Falling
Raiders 10 25 23 15 15 14 14 17 18 26 24 18.273 -0.727 Falling
Falcons 23 20 21 18 13 19 12 23 17 20 18 18.546 -0.364 Falling
Eagles 21 13 15 23 27 22 19 18 20 13 14 18.636 4.455 Rising
Lions 15 21 17 14 26 18 28 16 16 19 22 19.273 0.454 Rising
Giants 20 16 16 29 21 16 18 22 19 18 20 19.546 -1.546 Falling
Ravens 19 15 19 27 20 17 21 24 23 16 16 19.727 -1.818 Falling
Buccaneers 12 28 25 21 16 26 15 19 21 23 23 20.818 1.818 Rising
Cowboys 25 18 20 22 22 25 24 26 27 17 21 22.455 3.545 Rising
Redskins 17 26 24 28 17 23 17 27 22 25 26 22.909 -1.091 Falling
Dolphins 24 19 22 26 28 28 25 25 25 24 17 23.909 0.727 Rising
Rams 26 22 27 30 24 20 22 21 24 27 30 24.818 -2.818 Falling
Chargers 29 24 28 19 19 24 26 28 29 28 25 25.364 -1.364 Falling
49ers 32 29 26 7 32 27 31 20 26 21 32 25.727 2.637 Rising
Saints 28 27 29 25 25 30 23 29 28 29 27 27.273 1.273 Rising
Jaguars 27 30 30 24 29 29 30 30 30 30 28 28.818 -0.909 Falling
Titans 31 31 32 32 23 31 29 31 31 32 29 30.182 -0.182 Falling
Browns 30 32 31 31 31 32 32 32 32 31 31 31.364 -1.000 Falling

Observations:

  • Panthers third on the "Objective" list. And they actually went down slightly. Even though they beat the Saints on Sunday, it wasn't the cleanest of wins.
  • Would you consider the Cardinals to be the best team in the league?
  • 7 of the top 11 teams are AFC teams.
  • Aikman's formula is back to being in love with the Jets.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI STD DEV Change in Value
Browns 30 32 31 31 31 32 32 32 32 31 31 0.643 -0.425 Falling
Bills 11 10 10 13 12 10 10 12 11 11 11 0.954 -0.382 Falling
Cardinals 5 4 1 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 1 1.157 -0.348 Falling
Bengals 3 3 3 5 4 1 1 3 2 6 4 1.466 0.029 Rising
Steelers 7 9 9 12 7 6 8 10 9 9 6 1.720 0.010 Rising
Jaguars 27 30 30 24 29 29 30 30 30 30 28 1.800 -0.775 Falling
Seahawks 1 2 6 6 6 5 4 7 7 4 3 1.920 0.106 Rising
Saints 28 27 29 25 25 30 23 29 28 29 27 2.049 -0.182 Falling
Chiefs 2 6 7 10 9 4 5 6 6 7 7 2.093 -0.008 Falling
Vikings 14 11 11 8 14 12 13 9 10 10 15 2.148 0.156 Rising
Packers 13 7 8 4 10 9 11 8 8 8 8 2.189 0.523 Rising
Texans 16 17 14 20 11 15 16 13 13 14 13 2.339 -0.773 Falling
Broncos 8 5 2 3 8 8 9 4 5 5 9 2.374 -0.165 Falling
Panthers 4 8 5 1 2 7 6 1 1 2 5 2.443 0.439 Rising
Titans 31 31 32 32 23 31 29 31 31 32 29 2.480 0.144 Rising
Patriots 6 1 4 11 5 3 3 5 4 1 2 2.678 0.256 Rising
Cowboys 25 18 20 22 22 25 24 26 27 17 21 3.115 -1.019 Falling
Dolphins 24 19 22 26 28 28 25 25 25 24 17 3.260 0.148 Rising
Rams 26 22 27 30 24 20 22 21 24 27 30 3.298 -0.295 Falling
Falcons 23 20 21 18 13 19 12 23 17 20 18 3.394 -0.012 Falling
Chargers 29 24 28 19 19 24 26 28 29 28 25 3.471 0.913 Rising
Giants 20 16 16 29 21 16 18 22 19 18 20 3.577 1.281 Rising
Ravens 19 15 19 27 20 17 21 24 23 16 16 3.595 1.056 Rising
Redskins 17 26 24 28 17 23 17 27 22 25 26 3.965 0.585 Rising
Jets 9 12 12 16 1 11 7 14 12 15 10 3.973 -0.318 Falling
Bears 18 23 18 9 18 13 20 11 14 22 19 4.281 -0.073 Falling
Lions 15 21 17 14 26 18 28 16 16 19 22 4.329 -0.285 Falling
Eagles 21 13 15 23 27 22 19 18 20 13 14 4.333 0.059 Rising
Buccaneers 12 28 25 21 16 26 15 19 21 23 23 4.706 0.128 Rising
Raiders 10 25 23 15 15 14 14 17 18 26 24 5.118 0.954 Rising
Colts 22 14 13 17 30 21 27 15 15 12 12 5.893 1.729 Rising
49ers 32 29 26 7 32 27 31 20 26 21 32 7.162 2.808 Rising

Observations:

  • Huh, more teams saw their deviation get worse this week.
  • Oye, those Colts. They're good, they're bad, they're good again. This is like Ross and Rachel all over again.
  • A little more even distribution between the conferences.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Average Change in Value
Panthers 1.000 3.818 2.409 -0.273 Falling
Cardinals 2.750 2.546 2.648 1.231 Rising
Bengals 3.167 3.182 3.174 0.637 Rising
Patriots 4.500 4.091 4.295 -1.988 Falling
Broncos 3.583 6.000 4.792 -0.288 Falling
Seahawks 6.417 4.636 5.527 1.878 Rising
Chiefs 8.583 6.273 7.428 -0.068 Falling
Steelers 7.833 8.364 8.098 1.599 Rising
Packers 7.750 8.546 8.148 -0.246 Falling
Vikings 10.417 11.546 10.981 -3.223 Falling
Jets 11.500 10.818 11.159 1.493 Rising
Bills 12.000 11.000 11.500 2.299 Rising
Texans 13.500 14.727 14.114 -0.807 Falling
Colts 14.500 18.000 16.250 -2.352 Falling
Bears 18.333 16.818 17.576 -1.769 Falling
Buccaneers 15.000 20.818 17.909 3.159 Rising
Raiders 18.083 18.273 18.178 -1.114 Falling
Eagles 19.000 18.636 18.818 5.102 Rising
Falcons 19.583 18.546 19.064 -1.223 Falling
Giants 19.500 19.546 19.523 -1.773 Falling
Redskins 18.417 22.909 20.663 -1.504 Falling
Lions 22.583 19.273 20.928 -0.398 Falling
Dolphins 21.667 23.909 22.788 1.489 Rising
Cowboys 23.500 22.455 22.977 2.898 Rising
Ravens 27.750 19.727 23.739 -1.993 Falling
49ers 25.500 25.727 25.614 3.026 Rising
Rams 27.583 24.818 26.201 -3.284 Falling
Saints 25.667 27.273 26.470 0.511 Rising
Chargers 29.417 25.364 27.390 -1.682 Falling
Jaguars 28.833 28.818 28.826 -1.538 Falling
Titans 28.250 30.182 29.216 0.826 Rising
Browns 31.833 31.364 31.598 -0.625 Falling

Observations:

  • Panthers keep the top spot overall again, but Cardinals are hot on their heels.
  • The highest representative from the NFC East is ranked nearly 19th.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg STD DEV Change in Value
Browns 31.833 31.364 0.642 -0.500 Falling
Cardinals 2.750 2.546 1.047 -0.180 Falling
Bengals 3.167 3.182 1.090 -0.077 Falling
Bills 12.000 11.000 1.211 -1.135 Falling
Steelers 7.833 8.364 1.316 -0.017 Falling
Seahawks 6.417 4.636 1.664 -0.150 Falling
Vikings 10.417 11.546 1.681 -0.328 Falling
Jaguars 28.833 28.818 1.809 -0.714 Falling
Packers 7.750 8.546 1.872 0.155 Rising
Texans 13.500 14.727 1.886 -1.206 Falling
Patriots 4.500 4.091 1.988 0.283 Rising
Broncos 3.583 6.000 2.191 0.151 Rising
Panthers 1.000 3.818 2.199 0.407 Rising
Chiefs 8.583 6.273 2.224 -0.394 Falling
Titans 28.250 30.182 2.258 0.142 Rising
Saints 25.667 27.273 2.300 -0.792 Falling
Dolphins 21.667 23.909 2.770 0.080 Rising
Cowboys 23.500 22.455 2.919 -0.803 Falling
Rams 27.583 24.818 2.996 -0.200 Falling
Jets 11.500 10.818 3.212 -0.232 Falling
Giants 19.500 19.546 3.335 0.777 Rising
Eagles 19.000 18.636 3.409 -0.497 Falling
Bears 18.333 16.818 3.473 -0.012 Falling
Chargers 29.417 25.364 3.549 0.557 Rising
Lions 22.583 19.273 3.834 0.212 Rising
Redskins 18.417 22.909 4.031 -0.175 Falling
Falcons 19.583 18.546 4.085 0.430 Rising
Raiders 18.083 18.273 4.135 0.482 Rising
Buccaneers 15.000 20.818 4.634 0.755 Rising
Colts 14.500 18.000 4.706 0.992 Rising
49ers 25.500 25.727 5.339 2.034 Rising
Ravens 27.750 19.727 5.579 0.379 Rising

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Diff. in Avg Change in Value
Buccaneers 15.000 20.818 5.818 2.682 Rising
Redskins 18.417 22.909 4.492 -0.826 Rising
Colts 14.500 18.000 3.500 0.204 Rising
Panthers 1.000 3.818 2.818 0.545 Rising
Broncos 3.583 6.000 2.417 1.243 Rising
Dolphins 21.667 23.909 2.242 1.522 Rising
Titans 28.250 30.182 1.932 2.015 Rising
Saints 25.667 27.273 1.606 -1.523 Rising
Texans 13.500 14.727 1.227 -2.887 Rising
Vikings 10.417 11.546 1.129 -1.720 Rising
Packers 7.750 8.546 0.796 1.326 Rising
Steelers 7.833 8.364 0.530 0.469 Rising
49ers 25.500 25.727 0.227 0.780 Rising
Raiders 18.083 18.273 0.189 -0.773 Rising
Giants 19.500 19.546 0.046 -0.454 Rising
Bengals 3.167 3.182 0.015 0.727 Rising
Jaguars 28.833 28.818 -0.015 -1.257 Rising
Cardinals 2.750 2.546 -0.205 -0.629 Rising
Eagles 19.000 18.636 -0.364 1.295 Rising
Patriots 4.500 4.091 -0.409 -0.523 Rising
Browns 31.833 31.364 -0.470 0.750 Rising
Jets 11.500 10.818 -0.682 1.348 Rising
Bills 12.000 11.000 -1.000 2.235 Rising
Falcons 19.583 18.546 -1.038 -1.720 Rising
Cowboys 23.500 22.455 -1.046 -1.296 Rising
Bears 18.333 16.818 -1.515 -0.629 Rising
Seahawks 6.417 4.636 -1.780 -0.424 Rising
Chiefs 8.583 6.273 -2.311 1.136 Rising
Rams 27.583 24.818 -2.765 -0.932 Rising
Lions 22.583 19.273 -3.311 -1.705 Rising
Chargers 29.417 25.364 -4.053 -0.636 Rising
Ravens 27.750 19.727 -8.023 -0.349 Rising

Observations:

  • The most "inflated" team this week is: the Buccaneers?
  • Poor Ravens have yet to catch a break this year, both on the field, and with the pundits.
  • Chiefs still slightly underranked. Hard to believe in a team that started the year 1-5?
  • Chargers under-ranked as well, but that's okay, the difference between 29 and 25 is negligible and I'm not sure I'd put them above 31st myself.

Sources

Subjective Objective
ESPN Football Outsiders
Fox Team Rankings
CBS Sagarin
USA Today BeatGraphs
Sports Illustrated Aikman Efficiency
ProFootballTalk Pro Football Reference
NFL.com Cold Hard Football Facts
SportingNews Massey
SB Nation ARGH
Reddit Five Thirty Eight
ProFootballFocus Football Power Index
Associated Press

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