2015 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 9

As Bill Parcells would say, "you are what your record says you are." That seems to be how the pundits operate, but how far off are they when it comes to the stats?

I know quite a few people who have been saying, "the Raiders are getting better, they're just a few years off from being a good team." Some have even said it as recently as this year. Is this finally the year the Raiders return to respectability?

By all indications: yes, yes it is.

Notable Quotes

Who's to blame for the Chargers' 2-6 start? It's not Philip Rivers, who has completed nearly 70 percent of his passes in the six losses. Try the defense, the only unit to allow 24-plus points in every game this season.

The Chargers did their best not to injure themselves on the flight home, there were no survivors.

When you can’t run the football (30th in yards per carry) or stop the run (32nd in yards per carry allowed), it’s almost impossible to consistently win football games

Division Averages

Stock Rising

Stock Falling

Subjective Average

	Subjective
	ESPN	Fox	CBS	USA	SI	PFT	NFL	SN	SBN	Reddit	PFF	AP		Average		Change in Value
Patriots	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.000		0.000
Bengals	3	3	2	2	2	2	3	3	2	2	3	3		2.500		0.250
Broncos	2	2	3	3	3	3	2	2	3	3	4	2		2.667		2.166
Panthers	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	2	4		3.917		0.083
Packers	4	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	5	7	5		5.250		-2.833
Cardinals	6	5	6	6	8	6	6	6	5	6	5	6		5.917		1.000
Vikings	11	7	8	8	6	7	8	8	7	8	8	7		7.750		1.250
Falcons	7	10	7	10	12	11	7	7	8	7	6	9		8.417		-1.667
Seahawks	8	9	9	7	9	10	14	9	10	9	11	8		9.417		2.333
Rams	10	8	10	9	7	8	13	12	9	12	14	10		10.167		2.666
Raiders	9	12	11	13	10	9	10	11	11	13	9	11		10.750		4.250
Steelers	13	11	17	12	14	13	9	10	13	10	10	14		12.167		-1.334
Jets	12	14	12	11	11	12	11	14	12	11	18	12		12.500		-4.083
Saints	15	13	14	15	13	14	17	13	14	15	13	13		14.083		2.750
Giants	14	15	15	16	15	17	15	15	15	14	21	15		15.583		-3.083
Eagles	18	20	19	14	17	16	12	17	16	16	12	16		16.083		-0.916
Dolphins	17	16	13	23	18	15	18	16	19	18	20	17		17.500		-3.333
Bills	16	21	20	17	21	20	16	18	17	17	15	19		18.083		0.334
Colts	22	22	18	18	20	23	20	19	20	19	24	18		20.250		-1.417
Redskins	24	18	21	20	16	19	19	20	21	20	26	21		20.417		0.166
Chiefs	20	19	22	28	19	22	23	22	18	21	17	20		20.917		3.666
Buccaneers	21	23	26	21	25	21	21	21	22	22	23	23		22.417		4.083
Cowboys	26	17	24	25	23	18	22	23	28	23	19	22		22.500		-1.833
Ravens	27	26	27	19	22	24	27	24	26	25	16	24		23.917		4.333
Browns	23	24	29	26	24	28	24	28	23	27	25	27		25.667		-2.167
Chargers	19	28	23	24	28	29	28	26	24	24	30	25		25.667		-3.584
Bears	28	25	16	27	26	27	25	25	29	26	28	28		25.833		-1.333
Texans	25	27	25	29	27	25	30	27	25	28	22	26		26.333		3.667
Jaguars	29	30	30	22	29	26	29	29	27	29	27	29		28.000		-0.250
49ers	31	31	28	32	30	31	26	30	30	30	32	30		30.083		-3.416
Titans	32	29	32	30	31	30	31	31	31	31	29	32		30.750		-1.083
Lions	30	32	31	31	32	32	32	32	32	32	31	31		31.500		-0.667

Observations:

• Broncos made a statement by beating the Packers on Sunday, and the rankings reward them.
• Top 3 teams are AFC teams. The next 7 teams are all NFC teams.
• By this list, the Raiders are the 4th-best team in the AFC. And in fact, if the season ended today, the Raiders would be the 5th-seed in the AFC, playing at the 3-5 Colts.
• The bottom half of the league has a 10:6 split between AFC and NFC. So when the season started, it seemed the AFC would assert dominance again, but that has since faded.
• Poor Detroit, so much optimism to start the season.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
	ESPN	Fox	CBS	USA	SI	PFT	NFL	SN	SBN	Reddit	PFF	AP		STD DEV		Change in Value
Patriots	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		0.000		0.000
Bengals	3	3	2	2	2	2	3	3	2	2	3	3		0.500		-0.095
Broncos	2	2	3	3	3	3	2	2	3	3	4	2		0.624		0.251
Panthers	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	2	4		0.640		0.063
Lions	30	32	31	31	32	32	32	32	32	32	31	31		0.646		-0.497
Packers	4	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	5	7	5		0.722		0.082
Cardinals	6	5	6	6	8	6	6	6	5	6	5	6		0.759		-0.195
Titans	32	29	32	30	31	30	31	31	31	31	29	32		1.010		-1.615
Vikings	11	7	8	8	6	7	8	8	7	8	8	7		1.164		-0.250
Saints	15	13	14	15	13	14	17	13	14	15	13	13		1.187		-0.847
Raiders	9	12	11	13	10	9	10	11	11	13	9	11		1.362		-0.638
Buccaneers	21	23	26	21	25	21	21	21	22	22	23	23		1.605		-0.002
49ers	31	31	28	32	30	31	26	30	30	30	32	30		1.605		-0.324
Seahawks	8	9	9	7	9	10	14	9	10	9	11	8		1.706		0.067
Giants	14	15	15	16	15	17	15	15	15	14	21	15		1.801		0.417
Falcons	7	10	7	10	12	11	7	7	8	7	6	9		1.847		1.018
Jets	12	14	12	11	11	12	11	14	12	11	18	12		1.937		0.046
Colts	22	22	18	18	20	23	20	19	20	19	24	18		1.963		0.391
Bills	16	21	20	17	21	20	16	18	17	17	15	19		1.977		-0.239
Browns	23	24	29	26	24	28	24	28	23	27	25	27		2.014		0.035
Texans	25	27	25	29	27	25	30	27	25	28	22	26		2.055		0.583
Rams	10	8	10	9	7	8	13	12	9	12	14	10		2.075		-0.117
Jaguars	29	30	30	22	29	26	29	29	27	29	27	29		2.160		-0.294
Steelers	13	11	17	12	14	13	9	10	13	10	10	14		2.192		-0.511
Eagles	18	20	19	14	17	16	12	17	16	16	12	16		2.361		0.022
Dolphins	17	16	13	23	18	15	18	16	19	18	20	17		2.432		-0.112
Redskins	24	18	21	20	16	19	19	20	21	20	26	21		2.499		-0.313
Chiefs	20	19	22	28	19	22	23	22	18	21	17	20		2.753		0.221
Chargers	19	28	23	24	28	29	28	26	24	24	30	25		2.981		-0.004
Cowboys	26	17	24	25	23	18	22	23	28	23	19	22		3.096		0.962
Bears	28	25	16	27	26	27	25	25	29	26	28	28		3.236		-0.192
Ravens	27	26	27	19	22	24	27	24	26	25	16	24		3.278		0.964

Observations:

• 16 teams saw their deviation go down, 15 went up, 1 stayed the same.
• Ravens, Bears, Cowboys, Chargers and Chiefs are all difficult to for the pundits to pin down
• The NFC is pretty much settled with the top half of the league in consistency enjoying an 11:5 NFC:AFC split.

Objective Average

	Objective
	FO	TR	SAG	BG	Aikman	PFR	CHFF	Massey	538	FPI		Average		Change in Value
Patriots	1	1	1	3	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.200		0.164
Bengals	3	5	3	1	4	2	3	2	3	3		2.900		1.555
Broncos	6	2	2	2	5	4	6	3	2	6		3.800		3.927
Cardinals	2	6	5	9	3	3	2	6	7	2		4.500		0.773
Packers	4	3	4	4	7	7	5	5	4	5		4.800		-1.527
Panthers	7	10	7	6	6	8	7	4	6	10		7.100		-0.554
Steelers	10	7	8	5	8	5	11	9	8	7		7.800		0.109
Seahawks	9	4	6	10	12	10	9	7	5	8		8.000		0.909
Jets	5	12	11	21	2	6	4	10	20	9		10.000		-3.091
Eagles	12	9	9	14	14	9	16	14	10	4		11.100		-1.827
Chiefs	11	8	10	16	15	12	8	15	11	11		11.700		5.664
Rams	13	13	14	7	11	11	14	12	17	17		12.900		3.282
Falcons	17	19	13	8	9	14	13	11	12	14		13.000		-3.091
Vikings	27	11	12	12	13	17	15	8	9	19		14.300		-0.027
Raiders	8	23	18	17	10	13	10	13	22	24		15.800		3.927
Bills	14	17	17	19	17	16	12	18	19	13		16.200		-1.927
Giants	15	21	15	18	20	18	17	17	13	22		17.600		-3.600
Saints	19	22	21	11	19	19	18	16	15	20		18.000		1.000
Ravens	16	14	16	29	24	15	21	19	18	16		18.800		1.746
Cowboys	26	18	19	13	22	20	24	20	14	15		19.100		-0.009
Colts	21	15	22	22	27	25	28	21	16	12		20.900		-0.809
Dolphins	20	16	20	26	28	23	20	22	21	18		21.400		-5.945
Chargers	23	20	23	20	18	22	23	24	25	21		21.900		1.100
Redskins	18	27	24	28	16	21	22	23	28	25		23.200		-1.745
Texans	30	24	25	25	21	26	25	25	23	23		24.700		2.482
Bears	29	28	27	15	25	27	26	26	29	31		26.300		1.155
Browns	22	25	26	27	30	24	29	29	30	27		26.900		-0.900
Buccaneers	25	30	30	31	26	28	19	27	27	30		27.300		2.700
Lions	31	26	28	23	31	32	32	31	26	29		28.900		-1.264
Titans	28	31	32	30	23	29	27	32	32	26		29.000		-2.273
49ers	32	29	29	24	32	30	31	28	24	32		29.100		-2.191
Jaguars	24	32	31	32	29	31	30	30	31	28		29.800		0.291

Observations:

• Without BeatGraphs, the Patriots would be a consensus #1.
• Aikman for the last few weeks had the Jets at the top of the list, that finally ends this week.
• DVOA quite likes the Raiders, FPI doesn't.
• 538 quite likes the Vikings, DVOA does not.
• Chargers lost, but their overall objective rating goes up? Ravens went up slightly more, so apparently both teams played well.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
	FO	TR	SAG	BG	Aikman	PFR	CHFF	Massey	538	FPI		STD DEV		Change in Value
Patriots	1	1	1	3	1	1	1	1	1	1		0.600		-0.171
Bengals	3	5	3	1	4	2	3	2	3	3		1.044		-0.515
Packers	4	3	4	4	7	7	5	5	4	5		1.249		-0.614
Broncos	6	2	2	2	5	4	6	3	2	6		1.721		-2.733
Panthers	7	10	7	6	6	8	7	4	6	10		1.758		-0.513
Steelers	10	7	8	5	8	5	11	9	8	7		1.833		0.328
Chargers	23	20	23	20	18	22	23	24	25	21		2.022		-0.428
Texans	30	24	25	25	21	26	25	25	23	23		2.238		-0.384
Jaguars	24	32	31	32	29	31	30	30	31	28		2.272		0.651
Bills	14	17	17	19	17	16	12	18	19	13		2.315		-1.330
Cardinals	2	6	5	9	3	3	2	6	7	2		2.335		-1.528
Seahawks	9	4	6	10	12	10	9	7	5	8		2.366		-1.482
Browns	22	25	26	27	30	24	29	29	30	27		2.548		-0.149
Chiefs	11	8	10	16	15	12	8	15	11	11		2.685		-1.669
Giants	15	21	15	18	20	18	17	17	13	22		2.691		-1.443
Rams	13	13	14	7	11	11	14	12	17	17		2.809		-0.319
Titans	28	31	32	30	23	29	27	32	32	26		2.864		-1.886
49ers	32	29	29	24	32	30	31	28	24	32		2.879		-0.776
Lions	31	26	28	23	31	32	32	31	26	29		2.914		0.242
Saints	19	22	21	11	19	19	18	16	15	20		3.066		1.066
Falcons	17	19	13	8	9	14	13	11	12	14		3.162		-1.196
Buccaneers	25	30	30	31	26	28	19	27	27	30		3.348		1.092
Dolphins	20	16	20	26	28	23	20	22	21	18		3.382		0.124
Eagles	12	9	9	14	14	9	16	14	10	4		3.390		0.342
Redskins	18	27	24	28	16	21	22	23	28	25		3.868		-1.166
Cowboys	26	18	19	13	22	20	24	20	14	15		4.036		1.258
Bears	29	28	27	15	25	27	26	26	29	31		4.124		1.553
Ravens	16	14	16	29	24	15	21	19	18	16		4.445		-0.272
Colts	21	15	22	22	27	25	28	21	16	12		4.949		0.005
Vikings	27	11	12	12	13	17	15	8	9	19		5.311		0.087
Raiders	8	23	18	17	10	13	10	13	22	24		5.546		0.168
Jets	5	12	11	21	2	6	4	10	20	9		6.066		2.487

Observations:

• Wow that's quite a discrepancy for among the ratings for the Jets, Raiders, and Vikings.
• 19 of 32 teams saw their consistency improve this week.
• So on the subjective list, 11 of the top 16 most consistently-ranked teams were in the NFC. On the objective list, 10 of the top 16 most consistently-ranked teams are AFC teams. So while the pundits can't pin down the AFC, the stats aren't having many issues.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		Average		Change in Value
Patriots	1.000	1.200		1.100		0.082
Bengals	2.500	2.900		2.700		0.902
Broncos	2.667	3.800		3.233		3.047
Packers	5.250	4.800		5.025		-2.180
Cardinals	5.917	4.500		5.208		0.887
Panthers	3.917	7.100		5.508		-0.235
Seahawks	9.417	8.000		8.708		1.622
Steelers	12.167	7.800		9.983		-0.612
Falcons	8.417	13.000		10.708		-2.378
Vikings	7.750	14.300		11.025		0.611
Jets	12.500	10.000		11.250		-3.587
Rams	10.167	12.900		11.533		2.975
Raiders	10.750	15.800		13.275		4.089
Eagles	16.083	11.100		13.592		-1.372
Saints	14.083	18.000		16.042		1.875
Chiefs	20.917	11.700		16.308		4.665
Giants	15.583	17.600		16.592		-3.342
Bills	18.083	16.200		17.142		-0.797
Dolphins	17.500	21.400		19.450		-4.639
Colts	20.250	20.900		20.575		-1.113
Cowboys	22.500	19.100		20.800		-0.921
Ravens	23.917	18.800		21.358		3.040
Redskins	20.417	23.200		21.808		-0.789
Chargers	25.667	21.900		23.783		-1.241
Buccaneers	22.417	27.300		24.858		3.392
Texans	26.333	24.700		25.517		3.074
Bears	25.833	26.300		26.067		-0.090
Browns	25.667	26.900		26.283		-1.533
Jaguars	28.000	29.800		28.900		0.020
49ers	30.083	29.100		29.592		-2.804
Titans	30.750	29.000		29.875		-1.678
Lions	31.500	28.900		30.200		-0.965

Observations:

• Patriots playing well (duh)
• 3 of the top 12 teams come from the NFC West.
• The Dolphins surge has come to a halt.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		STD DEV		Change in Value
Patriots	1.000	1.200		0.417		-0.147
Bengals	2.500	2.900		0.819		-0.620
Packers	5.250	4.800		1.022		-0.412
Broncos	2.667	3.800		1.370		-2.043
Cardinals	5.917	4.500		1.814		-1.065
Panthers	3.917	7.100		2.035		-0.028
Seahawks	9.417	8.000		2.152		-1.088
Titans	30.750	29.000		2.246		-1.821
Texans	26.333	24.700		2.290		-0.240
49ers	30.083	29.100		2.327		-0.562
Bills	18.083	16.200		2.334		-1.300
Browns	25.667	26.900		2.354		-0.307
Jaguars	28.000	29.800		2.386		-0.015
Lions	31.500	28.900		2.401		-0.177
Giants	15.583	17.600		2.463		-0.657
Rams	10.167	12.900		2.791		-0.369
Saints	14.083	18.000		2.974		0.684
Steelers	12.167	7.800		2.979		0.328
Chargers	25.667	21.900		3.198		0.418
Falcons	8.417	13.000		3.408		-0.046
Redskins	20.417	23.200		3.482		-0.572
Dolphins	17.500	21.400		3.493		0.515
Buccaneers	22.417	27.300		3.523		0.908
Colts	20.250	20.900		3.652		-0.005
Bears	25.833	26.300		3.674		0.287
Eagles	16.083	11.100		3.798		-0.198
Cowboys	22.500	19.100		3.937		1.351
Jets	12.500	10.000		4.508		1.582
Raiders	10.750	15.800		4.617		-0.020
Ravens	23.917	18.800		4.619		-0.696
Vikings	7.750	14.300		4.919		0.333
Chiefs	20.917	11.700		5.336		0.294

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		Diff. in Avg		Change in Value
Vikings	7.750	14.300		6.550		1.277
Raiders	10.750	15.800		5.050		0.323
Buccaneers	22.417	27.300		4.883		1.383
Falcons	8.417	13.000		4.583		1.424
Saints	14.083	18.000		3.917		1.750
Dolphins	17.500	21.400		3.900		2.612
Panthers	3.917	7.100		3.183		0.637
Redskins	20.417	23.200		2.783		1.912
Rams	10.167	12.900		2.733		-0.616
Giants	15.583	17.600		2.017		0.517
Jaguars	28.000	29.800		1.800		-0.541
Browns	25.667	26.900		1.233		-1.267
Broncos	2.667	3.800		1.133		-1.761
Colts	20.250	20.900		0.650		-0.608
Bears	25.833	26.300		0.467		-2.488
Bengals	2.500	2.900		0.400		-1.305
Patriots	1.000	1.200		0.200		-0.164
Packers	5.250	4.800		-0.450		-1.306
49ers	30.083	29.100		-0.983		-1.225
Seahawks	9.417	8.000		-1.417		1.424
Cardinals	5.917	4.500		-1.417		0.227
Texans	26.333	24.700		-1.633		1.185
Titans	30.750	29.000		-1.750		1.189
Bills	18.083	16.200		-1.883		2.261
Jets	12.500	10.000		-2.500		-0.992
Lions	31.500	28.900		-2.600		0.597
Cowboys	22.500	19.100		-3.400		-1.824
Chargers	25.667	21.900		-3.767		-4.684
Steelers	12.167	7.800		-4.367		-1.443
Eagles	16.083	11.100		-4.983		0.911
Ravens	23.917	18.800		-5.117		2.588
Chiefs	20.917	11.700		-9.217		-1.997

Observations:

• So yeah, how about those Vikings. They seem impressive, don't they? Ehhh maybe they've just been beating up on lesser opponents?
• The subjective rankers seem to like the Raiders more than the stats back them up. Is it a case of low expectations to start the season holding them up because they have a winning record now and so that's better than most expected?
• As I was saying above about the subjective rankings keying in on the NFC? 8 of the 10 most "over-ranked" teams are NFC teams. Conversely, 8 of the 11 most "under-ranked" teams are AFC teams.
• Whether pundits just don't believe in the Chiefs without Jamaal Charles, or they're playing more impressively than anyone realizes, the Chiefs are way better than they're getting credit for.
• I was pointing out last week that the Ravens were much better than their record indicated and that anyone wanted to give them credit. So the loss in Baltimore was no big surprise to me.

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