SB Nation

John Crean | November 5, 2015

2015 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 9

Raiders are a Top-10 Team?

As Bill Parcells would say, "you are what your record says you are." That seems to be how the pundits operate, but how far off are they when it comes to the stats?

I know quite a few people who have been saying, "the Raiders are getting better, they're just a few years off from being a good team." Some have even said it as recently as this year. Is this finally the year the Raiders return to respectability?

By all indications: yes, yes it is.

Notable Quotes

Who's to blame for the Chargers' 2-6 start? It's not Philip Rivers, who has completed nearly 70 percent of his passes in the six losses. Try the defense, the only unit to allow 24-plus points in every game this season.

The Chargers did their best not to injure themselves on the flight home, there were no survivors.

When you can’t run the football (30th in yards per carry) or stop the run (32nd in yards per carry allowed), it’s almost impossible to consistently win football games

Division Averages

Division Week 8 Average Week 9 Average Difference
AFC East 10.022 12.239 -2.217
NFC West 14.435 13.773 0.662
NFC South 14.880 14.091 0.789
AFC West 16.783 14.227 2.556
AFC North 15.565 15.170 0.395
NFC North 17.391 18.034 -0.643
NFC East 16.620 18.239 -1.619
AFC South 26.304 26.227 0.077

Stock Rising

Team Week 8 Average Week 9 Average Difference
KC 20.973 16.308 4.665
OAK 17.364 13.275 4.089
TB 28.250 24.858 3.392
HOU 28.591 25.517 3.074
DEN 6.280 3.233 3.047

Stock Falling

Team Week 8 Average Week 9 Average Difference
MIA 14.811 19.450 -4.639
NYJ 7.663 11.250 -3.587
NYG 13.250 16.592 -3.342
SF 26.788 29.592 -2.804
ATL 8.330 10.708 -2.378

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit PFF AP Average Change in Value
Patriots 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.000 No Change
Bengals 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 2.500 0.250 Rising
Broncos 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 2 2.667 2.166 Rising
Panthers 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 3.917 0.083 Rising
Packers 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 7 5 5.250 -2.833 Falling
Cardinals 6 5 6 6 8 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 5.917 1.000 Rising
Vikings 11 7 8 8 6 7 8 8 7 8 8 7 7.750 1.250 Rising
Falcons 7 10 7 10 12 11 7 7 8 7 6 9 8.417 -1.667 Falling
Seahawks 8 9 9 7 9 10 14 9 10 9 11 8 9.417 2.333 Rising
Rams 10 8 10 9 7 8 13 12 9 12 14 10 10.167 2.666 Rising
Raiders 9 12 11 13 10 9 10 11 11 13 9 11 10.750 4.250 Rising
Steelers 13 11 17 12 14 13 9 10 13 10 10 14 12.167 -1.334 Falling
Jets 12 14 12 11 11 12 11 14 12 11 18 12 12.500 -4.083 Falling
Saints 15 13 14 15 13 14 17 13 14 15 13 13 14.083 2.750 Rising
Giants 14 15 15 16 15 17 15 15 15 14 21 15 15.583 -3.083 Falling
Eagles 18 20 19 14 17 16 12 17 16 16 12 16 16.083 -0.916 Falling
Dolphins 17 16 13 23 18 15 18 16 19 18 20 17 17.500 -3.333 Falling
Bills 16 21 20 17 21 20 16 18 17 17 15 19 18.083 0.334 Rising
Colts 22 22 18 18 20 23 20 19 20 19 24 18 20.250 -1.417 Falling
Redskins 24 18 21 20 16 19 19 20 21 20 26 21 20.417 0.166 Rising
Chiefs 20 19 22 28 19 22 23 22 18 21 17 20 20.917 3.666 Rising
Buccaneers 21 23 26 21 25 21 21 21 22 22 23 23 22.417 4.083 Rising
Cowboys 26 17 24 25 23 18 22 23 28 23 19 22 22.500 -1.833 Falling
Ravens 27 26 27 19 22 24 27 24 26 25 16 24 23.917 4.333 Rising
Browns 23 24 29 26 24 28 24 28 23 27 25 27 25.667 -2.167 Falling
Chargers 19 28 23 24 28 29 28 26 24 24 30 25 25.667 -3.584 Falling
Bears 28 25 16 27 26 27 25 25 29 26 28 28 25.833 -1.333 Falling
Texans 25 27 25 29 27 25 30 27 25 28 22 26 26.333 3.667 Rising
Jaguars 29 30 30 22 29 26 29 29 27 29 27 29 28.000 -0.250 Falling
49ers 31 31 28 32 30 31 26 30 30 30 32 30 30.083 -3.416 Falling
Titans 32 29 32 30 31 30 31 31 31 31 29 32 30.750 -1.083 Falling
Lions 30 32 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 31 31 31.500 -0.667 Falling

Observations:

  • Broncos made a statement by beating the Packers on Sunday, and the rankings reward them.
  • Top 3 teams are AFC teams. The next 7 teams are all NFC teams.
  • By this list, the Raiders are the 4th-best team in the AFC. And in fact, if the season ended today, the Raiders would be the 5th-seed in the AFC, playing at the 3-5 Colts.
  • The bottom half of the league has a 10:6 split between AFC and NFC. So when the season started, it seemed the AFC would assert dominance again, but that has since faded.
  • Poor Detroit, so much optimism to start the season.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit PFF AP STD DEV Change in Value
Patriots 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 0.000 No Change
Bengals 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 0.500 -0.095 Falling
Broncos 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 2 0.624 0.251 Rising
Panthers 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 0.640 0.063 Rising
Lions 30 32 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 31 31 0.646 -0.497 Falling
Packers 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 7 5 0.722 0.082 Rising
Cardinals 6 5 6 6 8 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 0.759 -0.195 Falling
Titans 32 29 32 30 31 30 31 31 31 31 29 32 1.010 -1.615 Falling
Vikings 11 7 8 8 6 7 8 8 7 8 8 7 1.164 -0.250 Falling
Saints 15 13 14 15 13 14 17 13 14 15 13 13 1.187 -0.847 Falling
Raiders 9 12 11 13 10 9 10 11 11 13 9 11 1.362 -0.638 Falling
Buccaneers 21 23 26 21 25 21 21 21 22 22 23 23 1.605 -0.002 Falling
49ers 31 31 28 32 30 31 26 30 30 30 32 30 1.605 -0.324 Falling
Seahawks 8 9 9 7 9 10 14 9 10 9 11 8 1.706 0.067 Rising
Giants 14 15 15 16 15 17 15 15 15 14 21 15 1.801 0.417 Rising
Falcons 7 10 7 10 12 11 7 7 8 7 6 9 1.847 1.018 Rising
Jets 12 14 12 11 11 12 11 14 12 11 18 12 1.937 0.046 Rising
Colts 22 22 18 18 20 23 20 19 20 19 24 18 1.963 0.391 Rising
Bills 16 21 20 17 21 20 16 18 17 17 15 19 1.977 -0.239 Falling
Browns 23 24 29 26 24 28 24 28 23 27 25 27 2.014 0.035 Rising
Texans 25 27 25 29 27 25 30 27 25 28 22 26 2.055 0.583 Rising
Rams 10 8 10 9 7 8 13 12 9 12 14 10 2.075 -0.117 Falling
Jaguars 29 30 30 22 29 26 29 29 27 29 27 29 2.160 -0.294 Falling
Steelers 13 11 17 12 14 13 9 10 13 10 10 14 2.192 -0.511 Falling
Eagles 18 20 19 14 17 16 12 17 16 16 12 16 2.361 0.022 Rising
Dolphins 17 16 13 23 18 15 18 16 19 18 20 17 2.432 -0.112 Falling
Redskins 24 18 21 20 16 19 19 20 21 20 26 21 2.499 -0.313 Falling
Chiefs 20 19 22 28 19 22 23 22 18 21 17 20 2.753 0.221 Rising
Chargers 19 28 23 24 28 29 28 26 24 24 30 25 2.981 -0.004 Falling
Cowboys 26 17 24 25 23 18 22 23 28 23 19 22 3.096 0.962 Rising
Bears 28 25 16 27 26 27 25 25 29 26 28 28 3.236 -0.192 Falling
Ravens 27 26 27 19 22 24 27 24 26 25 16 24 3.278 0.964 Rising

Observations:

  • 16 teams saw their deviation go down, 15 went up, 1 stayed the same.
  • Ravens, Bears, Cowboys, Chargers and Chiefs are all difficult to for the pundits to pin down
  • The NFC is pretty much settled with the top half of the league in consistency enjoying an 11:5 NFC:AFC split.

Objective Average

Objective
FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey 538 FPI Average Change in Value
Patriots 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.200 0.164 Rising
Bengals 3 5 3 1 4 2 3 2 3 3 2.900 1.555 Rising
Broncos 6 2 2 2 5 4 6 3 2 6 3.800 3.927 Rising
Cardinals 2 6 5 9 3 3 2 6 7 2 4.500 0.773 Rising
Packers 4 3 4 4 7 7 5 5 4 5 4.800 -1.527 Falling
Panthers 7 10 7 6 6 8 7 4 6 10 7.100 -0.554 Falling
Steelers 10 7 8 5 8 5 11 9 8 7 7.800 0.109 Rising
Seahawks 9 4 6 10 12 10 9 7 5 8 8.000 0.909 Rising
Jets 5 12 11 21 2 6 4 10 20 9 10.000 -3.091 Falling
Eagles 12 9 9 14 14 9 16 14 10 4 11.100 -1.827 Falling
Chiefs 11 8 10 16 15 12 8 15 11 11 11.700 5.664 Rising
Rams 13 13 14 7 11 11 14 12 17 17 12.900 3.282 Rising
Falcons 17 19 13 8 9 14 13 11 12 14 13.000 -3.091 Falling
Vikings 27 11 12 12 13 17 15 8 9 19 14.300 -0.027 Falling
Raiders 8 23 18 17 10 13 10 13 22 24 15.800 3.927 Rising
Bills 14 17 17 19 17 16 12 18 19 13 16.200 -1.927 Falling
Giants 15 21 15 18 20 18 17 17 13 22 17.600 -3.600 Falling
Saints 19 22 21 11 19 19 18 16 15 20 18.000 1.000 Rising
Ravens 16 14 16 29 24 15 21 19 18 16 18.800 1.746 Rising
Cowboys 26 18 19 13 22 20 24 20 14 15 19.100 -0.009 Falling
Colts 21 15 22 22 27 25 28 21 16 12 20.900 -0.809 Falling
Dolphins 20 16 20 26 28 23 20 22 21 18 21.400 -5.945 Falling
Chargers 23 20 23 20 18 22 23 24 25 21 21.900 1.100 Rising
Redskins 18 27 24 28 16 21 22 23 28 25 23.200 -1.745 Falling
Texans 30 24 25 25 21 26 25 25 23 23 24.700 2.482 Rising
Bears 29 28 27 15 25 27 26 26 29 31 26.300 1.155 Rising
Browns 22 25 26 27 30 24 29 29 30 27 26.900 -0.900 Falling
Buccaneers 25 30 30 31 26 28 19 27 27 30 27.300 2.700 Rising
Lions 31 26 28 23 31 32 32 31 26 29 28.900 -1.264 Falling
Titans 28 31 32 30 23 29 27 32 32 26 29.000 -2.273 Falling
49ers 32 29 29 24 32 30 31 28 24 32 29.100 -2.191 Falling
Jaguars 24 32 31 32 29 31 30 30 31 28 29.800 0.291 Rising

Observations:

  • Without BeatGraphs, the Patriots would be a consensus #1.
  • Aikman for the last few weeks had the Jets at the top of the list, that finally ends this week.
  • DVOA quite likes the Raiders, FPI doesn't.
  • 538 quite likes the Vikings, DVOA does not.
  • Chargers lost, but their overall objective rating goes up? Ravens went up slightly more, so apparently both teams played well.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey 538 FPI STD DEV Change in Value
Patriots 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.600 -0.171 Falling
Bengals 3 5 3 1 4 2 3 2 3 3 1.044 -0.515 Falling
Packers 4 3 4 4 7 7 5 5 4 5 1.249 -0.614 Falling
Broncos 6 2 2 2 5 4 6 3 2 6 1.721 -2.733 Falling
Panthers 7 10 7 6 6 8 7 4 6 10 1.758 -0.513 Falling
Steelers 10 7 8 5 8 5 11 9 8 7 1.833 0.328 Rising
Chargers 23 20 23 20 18 22 23 24 25 21 2.022 -0.428 Falling
Texans 30 24 25 25 21 26 25 25 23 23 2.238 -0.384 Falling
Jaguars 24 32 31 32 29 31 30 30 31 28 2.272 0.651 Rising
Bills 14 17 17 19 17 16 12 18 19 13 2.315 -1.330 Falling
Cardinals 2 6 5 9 3 3 2 6 7 2 2.335 -1.528 Falling
Seahawks 9 4 6 10 12 10 9 7 5 8 2.366 -1.482 Falling
Browns 22 25 26 27 30 24 29 29 30 27 2.548 -0.149 Falling
Chiefs 11 8 10 16 15 12 8 15 11 11 2.685 -1.669 Falling
Giants 15 21 15 18 20 18 17 17 13 22 2.691 -1.443 Falling
Rams 13 13 14 7 11 11 14 12 17 17 2.809 -0.319 Falling
Titans 28 31 32 30 23 29 27 32 32 26 2.864 -1.886 Falling
49ers 32 29 29 24 32 30 31 28 24 32 2.879 -0.776 Falling
Lions 31 26 28 23 31 32 32 31 26 29 2.914 0.242 Rising
Saints 19 22 21 11 19 19 18 16 15 20 3.066 1.066 Rising
Falcons 17 19 13 8 9 14 13 11 12 14 3.162 -1.196 Falling
Buccaneers 25 30 30 31 26 28 19 27 27 30 3.348 1.092 Rising
Dolphins 20 16 20 26 28 23 20 22 21 18 3.382 0.124 Rising
Eagles 12 9 9 14 14 9 16 14 10 4 3.390 0.342 Rising
Redskins 18 27 24 28 16 21 22 23 28 25 3.868 -1.166 Falling
Cowboys 26 18 19 13 22 20 24 20 14 15 4.036 1.258 Rising
Bears 29 28 27 15 25 27 26 26 29 31 4.124 1.553 Rising
Ravens 16 14 16 29 24 15 21 19 18 16 4.445 -0.272 Falling
Colts 21 15 22 22 27 25 28 21 16 12 4.949 0.005 Rising
Vikings 27 11 12 12 13 17 15 8 9 19 5.311 0.087 Rising
Raiders 8 23 18 17 10 13 10 13 22 24 5.546 0.168 Rising
Jets 5 12 11 21 2 6 4 10 20 9 6.066 2.487 Rising

Observations:

  • Wow that's quite a discrepancy for among the ratings for the Jets, Raiders, and Vikings.
  • 19 of 32 teams saw their consistency improve this week.
  • So on the subjective list, 11 of the top 16 most consistently-ranked teams were in the NFC. On the objective list, 10 of the top 16 most consistently-ranked teams are AFC teams. So while the pundits can't pin down the AFC, the stats aren't having many issues.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Average Change in Value
Patriots 1.000 1.200 1.100 0.082 Rising
Bengals 2.500 2.900 2.700 0.902 Rising
Broncos 2.667 3.800 3.233 3.047 Rising
Packers 5.250 4.800 5.025 -2.180 Falling
Cardinals 5.917 4.500 5.208 0.887 Rising
Panthers 3.917 7.100 5.508 -0.235 Falling
Seahawks 9.417 8.000 8.708 1.622 Rising
Steelers 12.167 7.800 9.983 -0.612 Falling
Falcons 8.417 13.000 10.708 -2.378 Falling
Vikings 7.750 14.300 11.025 0.611 Rising
Jets 12.500 10.000 11.250 -3.587 Falling
Rams 10.167 12.900 11.533 2.975 Rising
Raiders 10.750 15.800 13.275 4.089 Rising
Eagles 16.083 11.100 13.592 -1.372 Falling
Saints 14.083 18.000 16.042 1.875 Rising
Chiefs 20.917 11.700 16.308 4.665 Rising
Giants 15.583 17.600 16.592 -3.342 Falling
Bills 18.083 16.200 17.142 -0.797 Falling
Dolphins 17.500 21.400 19.450 -4.639 Falling
Colts 20.250 20.900 20.575 -1.113 Falling
Cowboys 22.500 19.100 20.800 -0.921 Falling
Ravens 23.917 18.800 21.358 3.040 Rising
Redskins 20.417 23.200 21.808 -0.789 Falling
Chargers 25.667 21.900 23.783 -1.241 Falling
Buccaneers 22.417 27.300 24.858 3.392 Rising
Texans 26.333 24.700 25.517 3.074 Rising
Bears 25.833 26.300 26.067 -0.090 Falling
Browns 25.667 26.900 26.283 -1.533 Falling
Jaguars 28.000 29.800 28.900 0.020 Rising
49ers 30.083 29.100 29.592 -2.804 Falling
Titans 30.750 29.000 29.875 -1.678 Falling
Lions 31.500 28.900 30.200 -0.965 Falling

Observations:

  • Patriots playing well (duh)
  • 3 of the top 12 teams come from the NFC West.
  • The Dolphins surge has come to a halt.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg STD DEV Change in Value
Patriots 1.000 1.200 0.417 -0.147 Falling
Bengals 2.500 2.900 0.819 -0.620 Falling
Packers 5.250 4.800 1.022 -0.412 Falling
Broncos 2.667 3.800 1.370 -2.043 Falling
Cardinals 5.917 4.500 1.814 -1.065 Falling
Panthers 3.917 7.100 2.035 -0.028 Falling
Seahawks 9.417 8.000 2.152 -1.088 Falling
Titans 30.750 29.000 2.246 -1.821 Falling
Texans 26.333 24.700 2.290 -0.240 Falling
49ers 30.083 29.100 2.327 -0.562 Falling
Bills 18.083 16.200 2.334 -1.300 Falling
Browns 25.667 26.900 2.354 -0.307 Falling
Jaguars 28.000 29.800 2.386 -0.015 Falling
Lions 31.500 28.900 2.401 -0.177 Falling
Giants 15.583 17.600 2.463 -0.657 Falling
Rams 10.167 12.900 2.791 -0.369 Falling
Saints 14.083 18.000 2.974 0.684 Rising
Steelers 12.167 7.800 2.979 0.328 Rising
Chargers 25.667 21.900 3.198 0.418 Rising
Falcons 8.417 13.000 3.408 -0.046 Falling
Redskins 20.417 23.200 3.482 -0.572 Falling
Dolphins 17.500 21.400 3.493 0.515 Rising
Buccaneers 22.417 27.300 3.523 0.908 Rising
Colts 20.250 20.900 3.652 -0.005 Falling
Bears 25.833 26.300 3.674 0.287 Rising
Eagles 16.083 11.100 3.798 -0.198 Falling
Cowboys 22.500 19.100 3.937 1.351 Rising
Jets 12.500 10.000 4.508 1.582 Rising
Raiders 10.750 15.800 4.617 -0.020 Falling
Ravens 23.917 18.800 4.619 -0.696 Falling
Vikings 7.750 14.300 4.919 0.333 Rising
Chiefs 20.917 11.700 5.336 0.294 Rising

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Diff. in Avg Change in Value
Vikings 7.750 14.300 6.550 1.277 Rising
Raiders 10.750 15.800 5.050 0.323 Rising
Buccaneers 22.417 27.300 4.883 1.383 Rising
Falcons 8.417 13.000 4.583 1.424 Rising
Saints 14.083 18.000 3.917 1.750 Rising
Dolphins 17.500 21.400 3.900 2.612 Rising
Panthers 3.917 7.100 3.183 0.637 Rising
Redskins 20.417 23.200 2.783 1.912 Rising
Rams 10.167 12.900 2.733 -0.616 Rising
Giants 15.583 17.600 2.017 0.517 Rising
Jaguars 28.000 29.800 1.800 -0.541 Rising
Browns 25.667 26.900 1.233 -1.267 Rising
Broncos 2.667 3.800 1.133 -1.761 Rising
Colts 20.250 20.900 0.650 -0.608 Rising
Bears 25.833 26.300 0.467 -2.488 Rising
Bengals 2.500 2.900 0.400 -1.305 Rising
Patriots 1.000 1.200 0.200 -0.164 Rising
Packers 5.250 4.800 -0.450 -1.306 Rising
49ers 30.083 29.100 -0.983 -1.225 Rising
Seahawks 9.417 8.000 -1.417 1.424 Rising
Cardinals 5.917 4.500 -1.417 0.227 Rising
Texans 26.333 24.700 -1.633 1.185 Rising
Titans 30.750 29.000 -1.750 1.189 Rising
Bills 18.083 16.200 -1.883 2.261 Rising
Jets 12.500 10.000 -2.500 -0.992 Rising
Lions 31.500 28.900 -2.600 0.597 Rising
Cowboys 22.500 19.100 -3.400 -1.824 Rising
Chargers 25.667 21.900 -3.767 -4.684 Rising
Steelers 12.167 7.800 -4.367 -1.443 Rising
Eagles 16.083 11.100 -4.983 0.911 Rising
Ravens 23.917 18.800 -5.117 2.588 Rising
Chiefs 20.917 11.700 -9.217 -1.997 Rising

Observations:

  • So yeah, how about those Vikings. They seem impressive, don't they? Ehhh maybe they've just been beating up on lesser opponents?
  • The subjective rankers seem to like the Raiders more than the stats back them up. Is it a case of low expectations to start the season holding them up because they have a winning record now and so that's better than most expected?
  • As I was saying above about the subjective rankings keying in on the NFC? 8 of the 10 most "over-ranked" teams are NFC teams. Conversely, 8 of the 11 most "under-ranked" teams are AFC teams.
  • Whether pundits just don't believe in the Chiefs without Jamaal Charles, or they're playing more impressively than anyone realizes, the Chiefs are way better than they're getting credit for.
  • I was pointing out last week that the Ravens were much better than their record indicated and that anyone wanted to give them credit. So the loss in Baltimore was no big surprise to me.

Sources

Subjective Objective
ESPN Football Outsiders
Fox Team Rankings
CBS Sagarin
USA Today BeatGraphs
Sports Illustrated Aikman Efficiency
ProFootballTalk Pro Football Reference
NFL.com Cold Hard Football Facts
SportingNews Massey
SB Nation Five Thirty Eight
Reddit Football Power Index
ProFootballFocus
Associated Press

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