SB Nation

John Crean | October 29, 2015

2015 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 8

Here comes the NFC

Within a couple weeks at the start of the season, it looked like the NFC was the weaker conference; the AFC had all the power! Not so much anymore.

I toyed with the idea of titling this post, "Oh how the mighty have fallen" to point out that many powerhouse teams are no-longer in the upper half of the rankings. I'm going to save that for the rankings in two weeks to do a mid-season review of surprises and disappointments.

This week, let's focus on the rise of the NFC (or is it the fall of the AFC?)

It was just a few weeks ago that many pundits were asking, "are there any good teams left in the NFC?" And the consensus seemed to be "no." Apparently that's not the case anymore as all but 3 or 4 AFC teams have looked soft, and the NFC has looked to be the tougher conference again. Packers, Panthers, Falcons, Cardinals. Hell, even the Vikings have looked borderline great this year.

Patriots? Yeah they're good. Bengals? Looking good too. Jets? Fairly balanced. Broncos? Carried by their defense because Peyton can't throw more than 5 yards downfield and there's no run game to speak of. Aside from those four teams, what AFC team strikes fear into an opponents chest?

Notable Quotes

The Chargers drafted a running back in the first round this year. Despite that, Philip Rivers has dropped back to pass an average of 63.5 times the past two games.

The Major League strategy apparently is being employed in San Diego.

Blurb written using the same effort shown on the field Sunday.

Division Averages

Division Week 7 Average Week 8 Average Difference
AFC East 10.136 10.022 0.114
NFC West 15.080 14.435 0.645
NFC South 16.500 14.880 1.620
AFC North 14.170 15.565 -1.395
NFC East 15.830 16.620 -0.790
AFC West 17.727 16.783 0.944
NFC North 17.398 17.391 0.007
AFC South 25.159 26.304 -1.145

Stock Rising

Team Week 7 Average Week 8 Average Difference
MIA 19.545 14.811 4.734
NO 22.545 17.917 4.628
OAK 21.864 17.364 4.500
KC 24.955 20.973 3.982
STL 17.409 14.508 2.901

Stock Falling

Team Week 7 Average Week 8 Average Difference
SDG 17.864 22.542 -4.678
IND 15.046 19.462 -4.416
SF 23.409 26.788 -3.379
BUF 13.091 16.345 -3.254
HOU 25.636 28.591 -2.955

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit PFF AP Average Change in Value
Patriots 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.000 No Change
Packers 2 4 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 2.417 -0.053 Falling
Bengals 3 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 4 3 2.750 0.068 Rising
Panthers 5 3 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4.000 0.273 Rising
Broncos 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4.833 -0.015 Falling
Falcons 7 7 6 7 9 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 6.750 0.705 Rising
Cardinals 6 6 7 6 8 8 9 7 7 6 7 6 6.917 1.083 Rising
Jets 8 8 9 9 7 6 7 8 9 8 14 8 8.417 -1.599 Falling
Vikings 11 10 8 8 6 9 10 11 8 10 8 9 9.000 1.546 Rising
Steelers 10 16 17 10 12 10 8 9 10 9 9 10 10.833 -3.015 Falling
Seahawks 9 11 10 11 11 15 14 12 13 11 13 11 11.750 3.341 Rising
Giants 14 13 11 13 14 13 12 10 11 12 15 12 12.500 1.773 Rising
Rams 12 12 12 12 10 11 13 15 12 13 19 13 12.833 2.622 Rising
Dolphins 13 9 13 18 13 12 17 13 16 14 18 14 14.167 6.106 Rising
Raiders 16 14 14 17 15 14 15 14 18 17 10 16 15.000 5.727 Rising
Eagles 15 18 19 14 17 16 11 16 14 16 11 15 15.167 -3.894 Falling
Saints 17 15 16 15 18 17 19 18 17 20 12 18 16.833 5.531 Rising
Bills 19 20 21 21 21 20 16 17 15 15 17 19 18.417 -4.053 Falling
Colts 18 19 18 16 19 21 20 19 19 18 22 17 18.833 -6.287 Falling
Redskins 23 17 22 22 16 19 18 21 21 21 27 20 20.583 2.235 Rising
Cowboys 20 21 23 19 22 18 22 20 24 22 16 21 20.667 -2.394 Falling
Chargers 21 22 20 20 23 23 21 23 20 19 31 22 22.083 -4.992 Falling
Browns 24 25 27 25 20 22 23 26 22 23 21 24 23.500 -2.227 Falling
Bears 25 29 15 29 24 24 25 22 25 25 26 25 24.500 0.773 Rising
Chiefs 22 24 24 30 26 27 27 25 23 24 20 23 24.583 4.417 Rising
Buccaneers 28 28 26 23 28 26 26 24 28 26 28 27 26.500 0.046 Rising
49ers 27 27 25 26 25 28 24 27 26 27 32 26 26.667 -4.940 Falling
Jaguars 32 26 29 24 30 25 28 30 27 29 24 29 27.750 3.886 Rising
Ravens 26 31 32 27 27 30 29 28 30 28 23 28 28.250 0.023 Rising
Titans 30 23 31 31 31 31 30 31 31 30 25 32 29.667 0.515 Rising
Texans 29 32 28 32 29 29 32 29 29 32 29 30 30.000 -4.727 Falling
Lions 31 30 30 28 32 32 31 32 32 31 30 31 30.833 -2.469 Falling

Observations:

  • Packers dropped a little in their bye week, likely to make room for the Bengals.
  • Panthers a consensus 4th-seed.
  • Broncos are being held in the 5th position by their record because no self-respecting pundit is going to rank a 6-0 team anything lower than 5th. When the Broncos lose to the Packers on Sunday, I expect to see quite a collective exhale when the pundits are free to lower the Broncos.
  • Normally Pete Prisco at CBS gets the ire of fans for having wacky rankings, but he's spared the pitchforks this week as PFF has made its triumphant return. Amazing how pundits working for a stats-based website can seem so far off the mark.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit PFF AP STD DEV Change in Value
Patriots 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 0.000 No Change
Broncos 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 0.373 -0.343 Falling
Panthers 5 3 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 0.577 -0.040 Falling
Bengals 3 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 4 3 0.595 -0.238 Falling
Packers 2 4 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 0.640 0.159 Rising
Falcons 7 7 6 7 9 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 0.829 -0.404 Falling
Cardinals 6 6 7 6 8 8 9 7 7 6 7 6 0.954 -0.583 Falling
Lions 31 30 30 28 32 32 31 32 32 31 30 31 1.143 -1.043 Falling
Giants 14 13 11 13 14 13 12 10 11 12 15 12 1.384 -0.217 Falling
Vikings 11 10 8 8 6 9 10 11 8 10 8 9 1.414 -0.363 Falling
Texans 29 32 28 32 29 29 32 29 29 32 29 30 1.472 -0.828 Falling
Colts 18 19 18 16 19 21 20 19 19 18 22 17 1.572 -0.699 Falling
Buccaneers 28 28 26 23 28 26 26 24 28 26 28 27 1.607 -0.743 Falling
Seahawks 9 11 10 11 11 15 14 12 13 11 13 11 1.639 -0.382 Falling
Jets 8 8 9 9 7 6 7 8 9 8 14 8 1.891 0.778 Rising
49ers 27 27 25 26 25 28 24 27 26 27 32 26 1.929 -0.331 Falling
Browns 24 25 27 25 20 22 23 26 22 23 21 24 1.979 -1.099 Falling
Raiders 16 14 14 17 15 14 15 14 18 17 10 16 2.000 -0.378 Falling
Saints 17 15 16 15 18 17 19 18 17 20 12 18 2.034 -0.738 Falling
Cowboys 20 21 23 19 22 18 22 20 24 22 16 21 2.134 -1.031 Falling
Rams 12 12 12 12 10 11 13 15 12 13 19 13 2.192 -0.344 Falling
Bills 19 20 21 21 21 20 16 17 15 15 17 19 2.216 0.296 Rising
Ravens 26 31 32 27 27 30 29 28 30 28 23 28 2.314 0.356 Rising
Eagles 15 18 19 14 17 16 11 16 14 16 11 15 2.339 1.377 Rising
Jaguars 32 26 29 24 30 25 28 30 27 29 24 29 2.454 1.304 Rising
Chiefs 22 24 24 30 26 27 27 25 23 24 20 23 2.532 1.184 Rising
Dolphins 13 9 13 18 13 12 17 13 16 14 18 14 2.544 -1.389 Falling
Titans 30 23 31 31 31 31 30 31 31 30 25 32 2.625 1.098 Rising
Steelers 10 16 17 10 12 10 8 9 10 9 9 10 2.703 1.367 Rising
Redskins 23 17 22 22 16 19 18 21 21 21 27 20 2.812 0.296 Rising
Chargers 21 22 20 20 23 23 21 23 20 19 31 22 2.985 0.482 Rising
Bears 25 29 15 29 24 24 25 22 25 25 26 25 3.428 0.565 Rising

Observations:

  • Even with PFF throwing a wrench in everything, 19 of 32 teams saw their deviation fall this week, and 1 (Patriots) stayed the same.
  • Consensus is developing around the Dolphins, Cowboys, and Browns.
  • In general, the more consistently-ranked teams are in the NFC and the less consistently-ranked teams are in the AFC.

Objective Average

Objective
FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI Average Change in Value
Patriots 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.364 -0.182 Falling
Packers 3 2 2 8 5 5 2 2 2 2 3 3.273 0.182 Rising
Bengals 4 5 4 7 4 4 3 3 3 4 8 4.455 0.272 Rising
Cardinals 2 6 5 16 2 2 4 6 6 7 2 5.273 0.273 Rising
Panthers 7 10 8 2 6 8 5 5 5 6 10 6.546 2.818 Rising
Jets 5 9 9 6 1 3 8 8 8 15 4 6.909 -0.091 Falling
Broncos 10 3 3 13 7 11 16 4 4 3 11 7.727 -0.091 Falling
Steelers 9 7 7 9 9 6 6 10 10 8 6 7.909 -1.818 Falling
Seahawks 6 4 6 18 12 10 12 9 9 5 7 8.909 1.455 Rising
Eagles 8 8 10 4 13 7 14 12 11 10 5 9.273 -1.546 Falling
Falcons 17 17 11 1 8 9 9 7 7 11 12 9.909 -0.363 Falling
Giants 12 21 13 5 17 13 15 13 13 12 20 14.000 0.364 Rising
Bills 11 18 16 10 15 14 7 19 15 19 13 14.273 -2.455 Falling
Vikings 26 11 12 22 10 15 11 11 12 9 18 14.273 0.454 Rising
Dolphins 16 13 15 11 21 16 10 18 16 20 14 15.455 3.363 Rising
Rams 13 16 17 14 16 12 22 14 14 21 19 16.182 3.182 Rising
Chiefs 14 12 14 26 25 19 18 16 17 13 17 17.364 3.545 Rising
Saints 20 22 21 19 19 20 17 15 18 17 21 19.000 3.727 Rising
Cowboys 24 19 19 17 22 21 21 17 20 14 16 19.091 -3.455 Falling
Raiders 15 25 23 15 11 22 13 20 19 26 28 19.727 3.273 Rising
Colts 21 15 20 20 27 24 26 21 22 16 9 20.091 -2.545 Falling
Ravens 18 14 18 30 24 17 25 23 24 18 15 20.546 -1.819 Falling
Redskins 19 27 24 12 14 18 23 25 21 29 24 21.455 0.818 Rising
Chargers 25 20 22 24 18 23 27 26 23 23 22 23.000 -4.364 Falling
Browns 23 26 27 25 31 25 20 27 27 28 27 26.000 -2.364 Falling
Titans 22 30 30 28 20 26 19 32 32 32 23 26.727 0.273 Rising
49ers 32 28 28 21 32 27 29 22 26 22 29 26.909 -1.818 Falling
Texans 31 24 26 29 23 30 30 28 28 24 26 27.182 -1.182 Falling
Bears 29 29 29 23 26 28 31 24 25 27 31 27.455 0.636 Rising
Lions 30 23 25 27 30 29 32 29 29 25 25 27.636 -1.272 Falling
Buccaneers 28 31 32 31 29 32 24 30 31 30 32 30.000 -0.273 Falling
Jaguars 27 32 31 32 28 31 28 31 30 31 30 30.091 1.000 Rising

Observations:

  • Sharp delineation from the Falcons to the Giants
  • Wow, Football Outsiders and Beat Graphs really don't think highly of the Vikings.
  • Better watch out, here come the Jaguars!

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI STD DEV Change in Value
Patriots 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.771 0.385 Rising
Steelers 9 7 7 9 9 6 6 10 10 8 6 1.505 0.605 Rising
Bengals 4 5 4 7 4 4 3 3 3 4 8 1.559 0.016 Rising
Jaguars 27 32 31 32 28 31 28 31 30 31 30 1.621 0.457 Rising
Packers 3 2 2 8 5 5 2 2 2 2 3 1.863 -0.108 Falling
Saints 20 22 21 19 19 20 17 15 18 17 21 2.000 -0.863 Falling
Buccaneers 28 31 32 31 29 32 24 30 31 30 32 2.256 0.120 Rising
Panthers 7 10 8 2 6 8 5 5 5 6 10 2.271 -1.278 Falling
Chargers 25 20 22 24 18 23 27 26 23 23 22 2.450 0.627 Rising
Bears 29 29 29 23 26 28 31 24 25 27 31 2.571 0.296 Rising
Texans 31 24 26 29 23 30 30 28 28 24 26 2.622 -0.108 Falling
Lions 30 23 25 27 30 29 32 29 29 25 25 2.672 -0.381 Falling
Browns 23 26 27 25 31 25 20 27 27 28 27 2.697 -0.326 Falling
Cowboys 24 19 19 17 22 21 21 17 20 14 16 2.778 -2.704 Falling
Eagles 8 8 10 4 13 7 14 12 11 10 5 3.048 0.486 Rising
Rams 13 16 17 14 16 12 22 14 14 21 19 3.128 -1.268 Falling
Dolphins 16 13 15 11 21 16 10 18 16 20 14 3.258 -0.228 Falling
Jets 5 9 9 6 1 3 8 8 8 15 4 3.579 0.254 Rising
Bills 11 18 16 10 15 14 7 19 15 19 13 3.645 1.165 Rising
49ers 32 28 28 21 32 27 29 22 26 22 29 3.655 -1.344 Falling
Seahawks 6 4 6 18 12 10 12 9 9 5 7 3.848 -0.443 Falling
Cardinals 2 6 5 16 2 2 4 6 6 7 2 3.863 -0.168 Falling
Giants 12 21 13 5 17 13 15 13 13 12 20 4.134 0.410 Rising
Chiefs 14 12 14 26 25 19 18 16 17 13 17 4.354 -0.004 Falling
Falcons 17 17 11 1 8 9 9 7 7 11 12 4.358 0.216 Rising
Broncos 10 3 3 13 7 11 16 4 4 3 11 4.454 0.336 Rising
Ravens 18 14 18 30 24 17 25 23 24 18 15 4.717 -0.593 Falling
Titans 22 30 30 28 20 26 19 32 32 32 23 4.750 -0.036 Falling
Colts 21 15 20 20 27 24 26 21 22 16 9 4.944 -0.215 Falling
Redskins 19 27 24 12 14 18 23 25 21 29 24 5.034 -0.736 Falling
Vikings 26 11 12 22 10 15 11 11 12 9 18 5.224 0.770 Rising
Raiders 15 25 23 15 11 22 13 20 19 26 28 5.378 0.297 Rising

Observations:

  • The consistency is pretty evenly split among the conferences.
  • 15 of 32 teams saw their deviation go up this week.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Average Change in Value
Patriots 1.000 1.364 1.182 -0.091 Falling
Packers 2.417 3.273 2.845 0.064 Rising
Bengals 2.750 4.455 3.602 0.171 Rising
Panthers 4.000 6.546 5.273 1.545 Rising
Cardinals 6.917 5.273 6.095 0.678 Rising
Broncos 4.833 7.727 6.280 -0.053 Falling
Jets 8.417 6.909 7.663 -0.845 Falling
Falcons 6.750 9.909 8.330 0.170 Rising
Steelers 10.833 7.909 9.371 -2.416 Falling
Seahawks 11.750 8.909 10.330 2.397 Rising
Vikings 9.000 14.273 11.636 1.000 Rising
Eagles 15.167 9.273 12.220 -2.720 Falling
Giants 12.500 14.000 13.250 1.068 Rising
Rams 12.833 16.182 14.508 2.901 Rising
Dolphins 14.167 15.455 14.811 4.734 Rising
Bills 18.417 14.273 16.345 -3.254 Falling
Raiders 15.000 19.727 17.364 4.500 Rising
Saints 16.833 19.000 17.917 4.628 Rising
Colts 18.833 20.091 19.462 -4.416 Falling
Cowboys 20.667 19.091 19.879 -2.924 Falling
Chiefs 24.583 17.364 20.973 3.982 Rising
Redskins 20.583 21.455 21.019 1.526 Rising
Chargers 22.083 23.000 22.542 -4.678 Falling
Ravens 28.250 20.546 24.398 -0.898 Falling
Browns 23.500 26.000 24.750 -2.295 Falling
Bears 24.500 27.455 25.977 0.705 Rising
49ers 26.667 26.909 26.788 -3.379 Falling
Titans 29.667 26.727 28.197 0.394 Rising
Buccaneers 26.500 30.000 28.250 -0.114 Falling
Texans 30.000 27.182 28.591 -2.955 Falling
Jaguars 27.750 30.091 28.920 2.444 Rising
Lions 30.833 27.636 29.235 -1.871 Falling

Observations:

  • Patriots slipping a little?
  • 6 of the bottom 10 teams in the AFC.
  • 3 AFC South teams make up the bottom 5.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg STD DEV Change in Value
Patriots 1.000 1.364 0.564 0.276 Rising
Packers 2.417 3.273 1.434 -0.101 Falling
Bengals 2.750 4.455 1.439 -0.126 Falling
Panthers 4.000 6.546 2.063 -1.538 Falling
Saints 16.833 19.000 2.290 -0.534 Falling
Jaguars 27.750 30.091 2.401 1.212 Rising
Texans 30.000 27.182 2.530 -0.020 Falling
Lions 30.833 27.636 2.578 -0.259 Falling
Cowboys 20.667 19.091 2.586 -2.080 Falling
Buccaneers 26.500 30.000 2.615 -0.137 Falling
Steelers 10.833 7.909 2.651 1.221 Rising
Browns 23.500 26.000 2.661 -0.611 Falling
Chargers 22.083 23.000 2.780 0.458 Rising
Cardinals 6.917 5.273 2.879 -0.409 Falling
49ers 26.667 26.909 2.889 -1.339 Falling
Jets 8.417 6.909 2.926 0.446 Rising
Dolphins 14.167 15.455 2.978 -0.809 Falling
Giants 12.500 14.000 3.120 0.253 Rising
Rams 12.833 16.182 3.160 -0.926 Falling
Seahawks 11.750 8.909 3.240 -0.863 Falling
Bears 24.500 27.455 3.387 0.442 Rising
Broncos 4.833 7.727 3.413 0.139 Rising
Falcons 6.750 9.909 3.454 0.224 Rising
Bills 18.417 14.273 3.634 1.077 Rising
Colts 18.833 20.091 3.657 -1.048 Falling
Eagles 15.167 9.273 3.996 1.372 Rising
Redskins 20.583 21.455 4.054 -0.405 Falling
Titans 29.667 26.727 4.067 0.175 Rising
Vikings 9.000 14.273 4.586 0.603 Rising
Raiders 15.000 19.727 4.637 0.511 Rising
Chiefs 24.583 17.364 5.042 -0.132 Falling
Ravens 28.250 20.546 5.315 -0.914 Falling

Observations:

  • Yes! The Chargers are the most consistently-ranked of the AFC West teams. Oh.
  • Ravens have actually seen their consensus improve overall.
  • Cowboys definitely settling in to their less-than-stellar ranking.
  • Colts too.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Diff. in Avg Change in Value
Vikings 9.000 14.273 5.273 1.091 Rising
Raiders 15.000 19.727 4.727 2.454 Rising
Buccaneers 26.500 30.000 3.500 0.318 Rising
Rams 12.833 16.182 3.349 -0.560 Rising
Falcons 6.750 9.909 3.159 1.068 Rising
Bears 24.500 27.455 2.955 0.137 Rising
Broncos 4.833 7.727 2.894 0.076 Rising
Panthers 4.000 6.546 2.546 -2.545 Rising
Browns 23.500 26.000 2.500 0.136 Rising
Jaguars 27.750 30.091 2.341 2.887 Rising
Saints 16.833 19.000 2.167 1.803 Rising
Bengals 2.750 4.455 1.705 -0.204 Rising
Giants 12.500 14.000 1.500 1.409 Rising
Dolphins 14.167 15.455 1.288 2.743 Rising
Colts 18.833 20.091 1.258 -3.742 Rising
Chargers 22.083 23.000 0.917 -0.629 Rising
Redskins 20.583 21.455 0.871 1.417 Rising
Packers 2.417 3.273 0.856 -0.235 Rising
Patriots 1.000 1.364 0.364 0.182 Rising
49ers 26.667 26.909 0.242 -3.122 Rising
Jets 8.417 6.909 -1.508 -1.508 Rising
Cowboys 20.667 19.091 -1.576 1.060 Rising
Cardinals 6.917 5.273 -1.644 0.811 Rising
Texans 30.000 27.182 -2.818 -3.545 Rising
Seahawks 11.750 8.909 -2.841 1.886 Rising
Steelers 10.833 7.909 -2.924 -1.197 Rising
Titans 29.667 26.727 -2.939 0.243 Rising
Lions 30.833 27.636 -3.197 -1.197 Rising
Bills 18.417 14.273 -4.144 -1.599 Rising
Eagles 15.167 9.273 -5.894 -2.349 Rising
Chiefs 24.583 17.364 -7.220 0.871 Rising
Ravens 28.250 20.546 -7.705 1.840 Rising

Observations:

  • Yeah, maybe slow down a bit on the Vikings? And I know the Raiders looked phenomenal on Sunday, but they're still flawed.
  • Pundits still sleeping on the Eagles.
  • Chiefs may actually be better than even I want to give them credit.
  • Ravens are playing better than their 1-6 record indicates.

Sources

Subjective Objective
ESPN Football Outsiders
Fox Team Rankings
CBS Sagarin
USA Today BeatGraphs
Sports Illustrated Aikman Efficiency
ProFootballTalk Pro Football Reference
NFL.com Cold Hard Football Facts
SportingNews Massey
SB Nation ARGH
Reddit Five Thirty Eight
ProFootballFocus Football Power Index
Associated Press

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