2015 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 8

Within a couple weeks at the start of the season, it looked like the NFC was the weaker conference; the AFC had all the power! Not so much anymore.

I toyed with the idea of titling this post, "Oh how the mighty have fallen" to point out that many powerhouse teams are no-longer in the upper half of the rankings. I'm going to save that for the rankings in two weeks to do a mid-season review of surprises and disappointments.

This week, let's focus on the rise of the NFC (or is it the fall of the AFC?)

It was just a few weeks ago that many pundits were asking, "are there any good teams left in the NFC?" And the consensus seemed to be "no." Apparently that's not the case anymore as all but 3 or 4 AFC teams have looked soft, and the NFC has looked to be the tougher conference again. Packers, Panthers, Falcons, Cardinals. Hell, even the Vikings have looked borderline great this year.

Patriots? Yeah they're good. Bengals? Looking good too. Jets? Fairly balanced. Broncos? Carried by their defense because Peyton can't throw more than 5 yards downfield and there's no run game to speak of. Aside from those four teams, what AFC team strikes fear into an opponents chest?

Notable Quotes

The Chargers drafted a running back in the first round this year. Despite that, Philip Rivers has dropped back to pass an average of 63.5 times the past two games.

The Major League strategy apparently is being employed in San Diego.

Blurb written using the same effort shown on the field Sunday.

Division Averages

Stock Rising

Stock Falling

Subjective Average

	Subjective
	ESPN	Fox	CBS	USA	SI	PFT	NFL	SN	SBN	Reddit	PFF	AP		Average		Change in Value
Patriots	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.000		0.000
Packers	2	4	3	2	2	3	2	2	3	2	2	2		2.417		-0.053
Bengals	3	2	2	3	3	2	3	3	2	3	4	3		2.750		0.068
Panthers	5	3	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	4		4.000		0.273
Broncos	4	5	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5		4.833		-0.015
Falcons	7	7	6	7	9	7	6	6	6	7	6	7		6.750		0.705
Cardinals	6	6	7	6	8	8	9	7	7	6	7	6		6.917		1.083
Jets	8	8	9	9	7	6	7	8	9	8	14	8		8.417		-1.599
Vikings	11	10	8	8	6	9	10	11	8	10	8	9		9.000		1.546
Steelers	10	16	17	10	12	10	8	9	10	9	9	10		10.833		-3.015
Seahawks	9	11	10	11	11	15	14	12	13	11	13	11		11.750		3.341
Giants	14	13	11	13	14	13	12	10	11	12	15	12		12.500		1.773
Rams	12	12	12	12	10	11	13	15	12	13	19	13		12.833		2.622
Dolphins	13	9	13	18	13	12	17	13	16	14	18	14		14.167		6.106
Raiders	16	14	14	17	15	14	15	14	18	17	10	16		15.000		5.727
Eagles	15	18	19	14	17	16	11	16	14	16	11	15		15.167		-3.894
Saints	17	15	16	15	18	17	19	18	17	20	12	18		16.833		5.531
Bills	19	20	21	21	21	20	16	17	15	15	17	19		18.417		-4.053
Colts	18	19	18	16	19	21	20	19	19	18	22	17		18.833		-6.287
Redskins	23	17	22	22	16	19	18	21	21	21	27	20		20.583		2.235
Cowboys	20	21	23	19	22	18	22	20	24	22	16	21		20.667		-2.394
Chargers	21	22	20	20	23	23	21	23	20	19	31	22		22.083		-4.992
Browns	24	25	27	25	20	22	23	26	22	23	21	24		23.500		-2.227
Bears	25	29	15	29	24	24	25	22	25	25	26	25		24.500		0.773
Chiefs	22	24	24	30	26	27	27	25	23	24	20	23		24.583		4.417
Buccaneers	28	28	26	23	28	26	26	24	28	26	28	27		26.500		0.046
49ers	27	27	25	26	25	28	24	27	26	27	32	26		26.667		-4.940
Jaguars	32	26	29	24	30	25	28	30	27	29	24	29		27.750		3.886
Ravens	26	31	32	27	27	30	29	28	30	28	23	28		28.250		0.023
Titans	30	23	31	31	31	31	30	31	31	30	25	32		29.667		0.515
Texans	29	32	28	32	29	29	32	29	29	32	29	30		30.000		-4.727
Lions	31	30	30	28	32	32	31	32	32	31	30	31		30.833		-2.469

Observations:

• Packers dropped a little in their bye week, likely to make room for the Bengals.
• Panthers a consensus 4th-seed.
• Broncos are being held in the 5th position by their record because no self-respecting pundit is going to rank a 6-0 team anything lower than 5th. When the Broncos lose to the Packers on Sunday, I expect to see quite a collective exhale when the pundits are free to lower the Broncos.
• Normally Pete Prisco at CBS gets the ire of fans for having wacky rankings, but he's spared the pitchforks this week as PFF has made its triumphant return. Amazing how pundits working for a stats-based website can seem so far off the mark.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
	ESPN	Fox	CBS	USA	SI	PFT	NFL	SN	SBN	Reddit	PFF	AP		STD DEV		Change in Value
Patriots	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		0.000		0.000
Broncos	4	5	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5		0.373		-0.343
Panthers	5	3	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	4		0.577		-0.040
Bengals	3	2	2	3	3	2	3	3	2	3	4	3		0.595		-0.238
Packers	2	4	3	2	2	3	2	2	3	2	2	2		0.640		0.159
Falcons	7	7	6	7	9	7	6	6	6	7	6	7		0.829		-0.404
Cardinals	6	6	7	6	8	8	9	7	7	6	7	6		0.954		-0.583
Lions	31	30	30	28	32	32	31	32	32	31	30	31		1.143		-1.043
Giants	14	13	11	13	14	13	12	10	11	12	15	12		1.384		-0.217
Vikings	11	10	8	8	6	9	10	11	8	10	8	9		1.414		-0.363
Texans	29	32	28	32	29	29	32	29	29	32	29	30		1.472		-0.828
Colts	18	19	18	16	19	21	20	19	19	18	22	17		1.572		-0.699
Buccaneers	28	28	26	23	28	26	26	24	28	26	28	27		1.607		-0.743
Seahawks	9	11	10	11	11	15	14	12	13	11	13	11		1.639		-0.382
Jets	8	8	9	9	7	6	7	8	9	8	14	8		1.891		0.778
49ers	27	27	25	26	25	28	24	27	26	27	32	26		1.929		-0.331
Browns	24	25	27	25	20	22	23	26	22	23	21	24		1.979		-1.099
Raiders	16	14	14	17	15	14	15	14	18	17	10	16		2.000		-0.378
Saints	17	15	16	15	18	17	19	18	17	20	12	18		2.034		-0.738
Cowboys	20	21	23	19	22	18	22	20	24	22	16	21		2.134		-1.031
Rams	12	12	12	12	10	11	13	15	12	13	19	13		2.192		-0.344
Bills	19	20	21	21	21	20	16	17	15	15	17	19		2.216		0.296
Ravens	26	31	32	27	27	30	29	28	30	28	23	28		2.314		0.356
Eagles	15	18	19	14	17	16	11	16	14	16	11	15		2.339		1.377
Jaguars	32	26	29	24	30	25	28	30	27	29	24	29		2.454		1.304
Chiefs	22	24	24	30	26	27	27	25	23	24	20	23		2.532		1.184
Dolphins	13	9	13	18	13	12	17	13	16	14	18	14		2.544		-1.389
Titans	30	23	31	31	31	31	30	31	31	30	25	32		2.625		1.098
Steelers	10	16	17	10	12	10	8	9	10	9	9	10		2.703		1.367
Redskins	23	17	22	22	16	19	18	21	21	21	27	20		2.812		0.296
Chargers	21	22	20	20	23	23	21	23	20	19	31	22		2.985		0.482
Bears	25	29	15	29	24	24	25	22	25	25	26	25		3.428		0.565

Observations:

• Even with PFF throwing a wrench in everything, 19 of 32 teams saw their deviation fall this week, and 1 (Patriots) stayed the same.
• Consensus is developing around the Dolphins, Cowboys, and Browns.
• In general, the more consistently-ranked teams are in the NFC and the less consistently-ranked teams are in the AFC.

Objective Average

	Objective
	FO	TR	SAG	BG	Aikman	PFR	CHFF	Massey	ARGH	538	FPI		Average		Change in Value
Patriots	1	1	1	3	3	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.364		-0.182
Packers	3	2	2	8	5	5	2	2	2	2	3		3.273		0.182
Bengals	4	5	4	7	4	4	3	3	3	4	8		4.455		0.272
Cardinals	2	6	5	16	2	2	4	6	6	7	2		5.273		0.273
Panthers	7	10	8	2	6	8	5	5	5	6	10		6.546		2.818
Jets	5	9	9	6	1	3	8	8	8	15	4		6.909		-0.091
Broncos	10	3	3	13	7	11	16	4	4	3	11		7.727		-0.091
Steelers	9	7	7	9	9	6	6	10	10	8	6		7.909		-1.818
Seahawks	6	4	6	18	12	10	12	9	9	5	7		8.909		1.455
Eagles	8	8	10	4	13	7	14	12	11	10	5		9.273		-1.546
Falcons	17	17	11	1	8	9	9	7	7	11	12		9.909		-0.363
Giants	12	21	13	5	17	13	15	13	13	12	20		14.000		0.364
Bills	11	18	16	10	15	14	7	19	15	19	13		14.273		-2.455
Vikings	26	11	12	22	10	15	11	11	12	9	18		14.273		0.454
Dolphins	16	13	15	11	21	16	10	18	16	20	14		15.455		3.363
Rams	13	16	17	14	16	12	22	14	14	21	19		16.182		3.182
Chiefs	14	12	14	26	25	19	18	16	17	13	17		17.364		3.545
Saints	20	22	21	19	19	20	17	15	18	17	21		19.000		3.727
Cowboys	24	19	19	17	22	21	21	17	20	14	16		19.091		-3.455
Raiders	15	25	23	15	11	22	13	20	19	26	28		19.727		3.273
Colts	21	15	20	20	27	24	26	21	22	16	9		20.091		-2.545
Ravens	18	14	18	30	24	17	25	23	24	18	15		20.546		-1.819
Redskins	19	27	24	12	14	18	23	25	21	29	24		21.455		0.818
Chargers	25	20	22	24	18	23	27	26	23	23	22		23.000		-4.364
Browns	23	26	27	25	31	25	20	27	27	28	27		26.000		-2.364
Titans	22	30	30	28	20	26	19	32	32	32	23		26.727		0.273
49ers	32	28	28	21	32	27	29	22	26	22	29		26.909		-1.818
Texans	31	24	26	29	23	30	30	28	28	24	26		27.182		-1.182
Bears	29	29	29	23	26	28	31	24	25	27	31		27.455		0.636
Lions	30	23	25	27	30	29	32	29	29	25	25		27.636		-1.272
Buccaneers	28	31	32	31	29	32	24	30	31	30	32		30.000		-0.273
Jaguars	27	32	31	32	28	31	28	31	30	31	30		30.091		1.000

Observations:

• Sharp delineation from the Falcons to the Giants
• Wow, Football Outsiders and Beat Graphs really don't think highly of the Vikings.
• Better watch out, here come the Jaguars!

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
	FO	TR	SAG	BG	Aikman	PFR	CHFF	Massey	ARGH	538	FPI		STD DEV		Change in Value
Patriots	1	1	1	3	3	1	1	1	1	1	1		0.771		0.385
Steelers	9	7	7	9	9	6	6	10	10	8	6		1.505		0.605
Bengals	4	5	4	7	4	4	3	3	3	4	8		1.559		0.016
Jaguars	27	32	31	32	28	31	28	31	30	31	30		1.621		0.457
Packers	3	2	2	8	5	5	2	2	2	2	3		1.863		-0.108
Saints	20	22	21	19	19	20	17	15	18	17	21		2.000		-0.863
Buccaneers	28	31	32	31	29	32	24	30	31	30	32		2.256		0.120
Panthers	7	10	8	2	6	8	5	5	5	6	10		2.271		-1.278
Chargers	25	20	22	24	18	23	27	26	23	23	22		2.450		0.627
Bears	29	29	29	23	26	28	31	24	25	27	31		2.571		0.296
Texans	31	24	26	29	23	30	30	28	28	24	26		2.622		-0.108
Lions	30	23	25	27	30	29	32	29	29	25	25		2.672		-0.381
Browns	23	26	27	25	31	25	20	27	27	28	27		2.697		-0.326
Cowboys	24	19	19	17	22	21	21	17	20	14	16		2.778		-2.704
Eagles	8	8	10	4	13	7	14	12	11	10	5		3.048		0.486
Rams	13	16	17	14	16	12	22	14	14	21	19		3.128		-1.268
Dolphins	16	13	15	11	21	16	10	18	16	20	14		3.258		-0.228
Jets	5	9	9	6	1	3	8	8	8	15	4		3.579		0.254
Bills	11	18	16	10	15	14	7	19	15	19	13		3.645		1.165
49ers	32	28	28	21	32	27	29	22	26	22	29		3.655		-1.344
Seahawks	6	4	6	18	12	10	12	9	9	5	7		3.848		-0.443
Cardinals	2	6	5	16	2	2	4	6	6	7	2		3.863		-0.168
Giants	12	21	13	5	17	13	15	13	13	12	20		4.134		0.410
Chiefs	14	12	14	26	25	19	18	16	17	13	17		4.354		-0.004
Falcons	17	17	11	1	8	9	9	7	7	11	12		4.358		0.216
Broncos	10	3	3	13	7	11	16	4	4	3	11		4.454		0.336
Ravens	18	14	18	30	24	17	25	23	24	18	15		4.717		-0.593
Titans	22	30	30	28	20	26	19	32	32	32	23		4.750		-0.036
Colts	21	15	20	20	27	24	26	21	22	16	9		4.944		-0.215
Redskins	19	27	24	12	14	18	23	25	21	29	24		5.034		-0.736
Vikings	26	11	12	22	10	15	11	11	12	9	18		5.224		0.770
Raiders	15	25	23	15	11	22	13	20	19	26	28		5.378		0.297

Observations:

• The consistency is pretty evenly split among the conferences.
• 15 of 32 teams saw their deviation go up this week.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		Average		Change in Value
Patriots	1.000	1.364		1.182		-0.091
Packers	2.417	3.273		2.845		0.064
Bengals	2.750	4.455		3.602		0.171
Panthers	4.000	6.546		5.273		1.545
Cardinals	6.917	5.273		6.095		0.678
Broncos	4.833	7.727		6.280		-0.053
Jets	8.417	6.909		7.663		-0.845
Falcons	6.750	9.909		8.330		0.170
Steelers	10.833	7.909		9.371		-2.416
Seahawks	11.750	8.909		10.330		2.397
Vikings	9.000	14.273		11.636		1.000
Eagles	15.167	9.273		12.220		-2.720
Giants	12.500	14.000		13.250		1.068
Rams	12.833	16.182		14.508		2.901
Dolphins	14.167	15.455		14.811		4.734
Bills	18.417	14.273		16.345		-3.254
Raiders	15.000	19.727		17.364		4.500
Saints	16.833	19.000		17.917		4.628
Colts	18.833	20.091		19.462		-4.416
Cowboys	20.667	19.091		19.879		-2.924
Chiefs	24.583	17.364		20.973		3.982
Redskins	20.583	21.455		21.019		1.526
Chargers	22.083	23.000		22.542		-4.678
Ravens	28.250	20.546		24.398		-0.898
Browns	23.500	26.000		24.750		-2.295
Bears	24.500	27.455		25.977		0.705
49ers	26.667	26.909		26.788		-3.379
Titans	29.667	26.727		28.197		0.394
Buccaneers	26.500	30.000		28.250		-0.114
Texans	30.000	27.182		28.591		-2.955
Jaguars	27.750	30.091		28.920		2.444
Lions	30.833	27.636		29.235		-1.871

Observations:

• Patriots slipping a little?
• 6 of the bottom 10 teams in the AFC.
• 3 AFC South teams make up the bottom 5.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		STD DEV		Change in Value
Patriots	1.000	1.364		0.564		0.276
Packers	2.417	3.273		1.434		-0.101
Bengals	2.750	4.455		1.439		-0.126
Panthers	4.000	6.546		2.063		-1.538
Saints	16.833	19.000		2.290		-0.534
Jaguars	27.750	30.091		2.401		1.212
Texans	30.000	27.182		2.530		-0.020
Lions	30.833	27.636		2.578		-0.259
Cowboys	20.667	19.091		2.586		-2.080
Buccaneers	26.500	30.000		2.615		-0.137
Steelers	10.833	7.909		2.651		1.221
Browns	23.500	26.000		2.661		-0.611
Chargers	22.083	23.000		2.780		0.458
Cardinals	6.917	5.273		2.879		-0.409
49ers	26.667	26.909		2.889		-1.339
Jets	8.417	6.909		2.926		0.446
Dolphins	14.167	15.455		2.978		-0.809
Giants	12.500	14.000		3.120		0.253
Rams	12.833	16.182		3.160		-0.926
Seahawks	11.750	8.909		3.240		-0.863
Bears	24.500	27.455		3.387		0.442
Broncos	4.833	7.727		3.413		0.139
Falcons	6.750	9.909		3.454		0.224
Bills	18.417	14.273		3.634		1.077
Colts	18.833	20.091		3.657		-1.048
Eagles	15.167	9.273		3.996		1.372
Redskins	20.583	21.455		4.054		-0.405
Titans	29.667	26.727		4.067		0.175
Vikings	9.000	14.273		4.586		0.603
Raiders	15.000	19.727		4.637		0.511
Chiefs	24.583	17.364		5.042		-0.132
Ravens	28.250	20.546		5.315		-0.914

Observations:

• Yes! The Chargers are the most consistently-ranked of the AFC West teams. Oh.
• Ravens have actually seen their consensus improve overall.
• Cowboys definitely settling in to their less-than-stellar ranking.
• Colts too.

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		Diff. in Avg		Change in Value
Vikings	9.000	14.273		5.273		1.091
Raiders	15.000	19.727		4.727		2.454
Buccaneers	26.500	30.000		3.500		0.318
Rams	12.833	16.182		3.349		-0.560
Falcons	6.750	9.909		3.159		1.068
Bears	24.500	27.455		2.955		0.137
Broncos	4.833	7.727		2.894		0.076
Panthers	4.000	6.546		2.546		-2.545
Browns	23.500	26.000		2.500		0.136
Jaguars	27.750	30.091		2.341		2.887
Saints	16.833	19.000		2.167		1.803
Bengals	2.750	4.455		1.705		-0.204
Giants	12.500	14.000		1.500		1.409
Dolphins	14.167	15.455		1.288		2.743
Colts	18.833	20.091		1.258		-3.742
Chargers	22.083	23.000		0.917		-0.629
Redskins	20.583	21.455		0.871		1.417
Packers	2.417	3.273		0.856		-0.235
Patriots	1.000	1.364		0.364		0.182
49ers	26.667	26.909		0.242		-3.122
Jets	8.417	6.909		-1.508		-1.508
Cowboys	20.667	19.091		-1.576		1.060
Cardinals	6.917	5.273		-1.644		0.811
Texans	30.000	27.182		-2.818		-3.545
Seahawks	11.750	8.909		-2.841		1.886
Steelers	10.833	7.909		-2.924		-1.197
Titans	29.667	26.727		-2.939		0.243
Lions	30.833	27.636		-3.197		-1.197
Bills	18.417	14.273		-4.144		-1.599
Eagles	15.167	9.273		-5.894		-2.349
Chiefs	24.583	17.364		-7.220		0.871
Ravens	28.250	20.546		-7.705		1.840

Observations:

• Yeah, maybe slow down a bit on the Vikings? And I know the Raiders looked phenomenal on Sunday, but they're still flawed.
• Pundits still sleeping on the Eagles.
• Chiefs may actually be better than even I want to give them credit.
• Ravens are playing better than their 1-6 record indicates.

Sources

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