2015 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 7

We started the 2015 NFL Season with what seemed like divisional parity. That has all but vanished.

This has been a rather interesting NFL season to me through the first 6 weeks. A lot of preconceived notions have been blown away. The Seahawks opened the season at number 1 on a couple rankings, and the Falcons were hovering around 23rd. Some pundits had the Chiefs in their top-10, and they've been anything but world-beaters (even before Jamaal Charles went down).

That's not to say everyone was wrong about every team, I just like to point this out because as many fans like to deride statistical analysis: this is why games are played on the field and not in spreadsheets.

Notable Quotes

The Chargers rank 29th in yards per rush (3.6) this season and last in yards per rush allowed (5.4). That's putting a lot on the shoulders of Philip Rivers.

If they're not going to win, it would at least be fun to see Philip Rivers become the league's first 5,500-yard passer.

The Chargers could be a playoff team. Yet, their approach -- specifically that of coach Mike McCoy -- puts the entire outcome on the shoulders of Philip Rivers. The franchise quarterback calls much of the offense from the line of scrimmage, and he carries the burden of having to play at an elite level all the time for San Diego to win. It should be noted that Rivers did have Danny Woodhead open in the flat on that second-and-goal incompletion to Antonio Gates in the closing moments of the loss to Green Bay. It should also be noted that, had the game seeped into overtime, Rivers (503 passing yards on 65 attempts) could have threatened one of the oldest records on the NFL's books: Norm Van Brocklin's 554 passing yards, set in 1951.

Division Averages

What did I say? It's an NFC sandwich, nestled between AFC bread. It's kind of interesting because to start the season there was a perfect AFC-NFC alternating order of the divisions.

Stock Rising

I mean, I know the Dolphins looked impressive against the Titans on Sunday, but jumping 8 spots? On the flip-side, I've been saying for weeks that the Eagles aren't as bad as people want to make them out to be.

Stock Falling

Subjective Average

We'll start off with the Subjective Average. These rankings are the ones that has actual people ranking the teams based on their gut feelings. You'll see in a moment that some of these sites may even just throw darts at a board, or have a chicken pecking at numbers.

I then take all those rankings and average them together, then sort the table based on the average ranking. This method evens out the peaks and valleys and allows us to get a more reliable "big picture" view of the perception of where teams rank in the league.

	Subjective
	ESPN	Fox	CBS	USA	SI	PFT	NFL	SN	SBN	Reddit	AP		Average		Change in Value
Patriots	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.000		0.091
Packers	2	3	3	2	2	3	2	2	3	2	2		2.364		-0.364
Bengals	5	2	2	3	3	2	3	3	2	3	3		2.818		0.273
Panthers	6	4	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4		4.273		2.727
Broncos	3	5	4	5	6	5	5	5	5	5	5		4.818		-0.272
Jets	8	6	6	9	5	6	7	7	7	8	6		6.818		1.637
Falcons	7	8	7	7	10	8	6	6	8	6	9		7.455		-2.364
Steelers	10	7	10	6	7	7	8	8	6	9	8		7.818		2.818
Cardinals	4	10	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	7	7		8.000		-2.545
Vikings	15	9	9	11	9	10	10	13	10	10	10		10.546		2.181
Eagles	9	12	12	12	11	12	11	10	11	12	12		11.273		6.363
Colts	11	13	11	10	12	19	13	12	13	13	11		12.546		0.363
Giants	14	17	17	14	15	14	14	11	14	14	13		14.273		-3.637
Bills	17	15	15	15	16	17	12	14	12	11	14		14.364		-2.818
Seahawks	12	19	14	13	13	16	16	15	18	15	15		15.091		-4.455
Rams	18	11	18	17	14	11	15	19	15	16	16		15.455		0.181
Chargers	13	20	13	16	18	21	17	20	16	17	17		17.091		-0.636
Cowboys	16	16	16	21	22	13	21	16	24	18	18		18.273		0.000
Dolphins	21	14	23	29	19	15	22	17	21	22	20		20.273		6.636
Raiders	23	24	24	19	23	18	18	18	22	20	19		20.727		-0.454
Browns	27	21	26	22	17	20	20	23	17	19	22		21.273		-0.818
49ers	19	18	22	20	21	26	23	24	20	23	23		21.727		5.455
Saints	20	22	21	18	26	23	27	25	19	24	21		22.364		5.454
Redskins	22	23	28	26	20	22	19	22	23	21	25		22.818		-3.636
Bears	25	30	19	30	24	24	24	26	25	25	26		25.273		-3.637
Texans	26	25	20	23	25	27	25	27	27	29	24		25.273		4.727
Buccaneers	31	27	25	27	27	25	26	21	28	28	27		26.546		-0.910
Ravens	28	31	31	24	28	28	28	28	29	26	30		28.273		-5.091
Lions	24	28	27	25	29	29	31	31	30	30	28		28.364		3.091
Chiefs	29	29	29	31	30	30	30	29	26	27	29		29.000		-4.727
Titans	30	26	30	32	31	31	29	30	31	31	31		30.182		-4.364
Jaguars	32	32	32	28	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		31.636		-1.272

Observations:

• Patriots are finally the unanimous top pick.
• Packers defense got burned by Philip Rivers on Sunday, better drop them down a spot or two.
• Bengals on the rise and threatening to overthrow the Packers.
• Take a look at the top 5. There are currently 5 undefeated teams in the NFL, all five of those teams are in the top 5 of this board. This should highlight that many pundits look at little else than current record.
• Amusing that the Cowboys didn't move at all this week, with every other team moving this week.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Put simply, Standard Deviation is a tool in statistics to measure how much variance there is in a set of numbers. To put more simply: I use it to look at who's ranked the most- and least-consistently. In Standard Deviation, the lower the number, the more consistent the values in the set.

For our purposes, this means the lower the Standard Deviation, the more consistent the rankings. The opposite is true too: the higher the number, the less consistent the rankings.

This table is sorted by most-consistently ranked to least-consistently ranked.

	Subjective
	ESPN	Fox	CBS	USA	SI	PFT	NFL	SN	SBN	Reddit	AP		STD DEV		Change in Value
Patriots	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		0.000		-0.288
Packers	2	3	3	2	2	3	2	2	3	2	2		0.481		0.055
Panthers	6	4	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4		0.617		-0.236
Broncos	3	5	4	5	6	5	5	5	5	5	5		0.716		-0.066
Bengals	5	2	2	3	3	2	3	3	2	3	3		0.833		0.165
Eagles	9	12	12	12	11	12	11	10	11	12	12		0.962		-1.460
Jets	8	6	6	9	5	6	7	7	7	8	6		1.113		-0.192
Jaguars	32	32	32	28	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		1.150		-0.461
Falcons	7	8	7	7	10	8	6	6	8	6	9		1.233		0.333
Steelers	10	7	10	6	7	7	8	8	6	9	8		1.336		-0.384
Chiefs	29	29	29	31	30	30	30	29	26	27	29		1.348		-1.385
Titans	30	26	30	32	31	31	29	30	31	31	31		1.527		-1.130
Cardinals	4	10	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	7	7		1.537		0.461
Giants	14	17	17	14	15	14	14	11	14	14	13		1.601		0.451
Vikings	15	9	9	11	9	10	10	13	10	10	10		1.777		-0.562
Bills	17	15	15	15	16	17	12	14	12	11	14		1.920		0.547
Ravens	28	31	31	24	28	28	28	28	29	26	30		1.958		-0.291
Seahawks	12	19	14	13	13	16	16	15	18	15	15		2.021		-0.286
Lions	24	28	27	25	29	29	31	31	30	30	28		2.186		1.530
49ers	19	18	22	20	21	26	23	24	20	23	23		2.260		0.564
Colts	11	13	11	10	12	19	13	12	13	13	11		2.271		0.541
Texans	26	25	20	23	25	27	25	27	27	29	24		2.300		1.346
Buccaneers	31	27	25	27	27	25	26	21	28	28	27		2.350		0.983
Raiders	23	24	24	19	23	18	18	18	22	20	19		2.378		0.374
Chargers	13	20	13	16	18	21	17	20	16	17	17		2.503		0.627
Redskins	22	23	28	26	20	22	19	22	23	21	25		2.516		0.875
Rams	18	11	18	17	14	11	15	19	15	16	16		2.536		0.764
Saints	20	22	21	18	26	23	27	25	19	24	21		2.772		0.735
Bears	25	30	19	30	24	24	24	26	25	25	26		2.863		0.806
Browns	27	21	26	22	17	20	20	23	17	19	22		3.078		1.107
Cowboys	16	16	16	21	22	13	21	16	24	18	18		3.165		0.399
Dolphins	21	14	23	29	19	15	22	17	21	22	20		3.933		0.786

Observations:

• ESPN a little bit of an outlier on the Eagles.
• Dolphins all over the board (14th to 29th).
• PFT doesn't like the Colts compared to everyone else.
• Consensus on the Chargers is getting worse

Objective Average

I call these rankings the "Objective" rankings because unlike the rankings above, these are rankings based on statistical models of some sort. I use the term "Objective" loosely here because there is still some inherent bias in how the various models are constructed. Each ranking site has their own criteria in what they feel is success in the NFL.

All that said, these rankings are more objective as they remove perception and bias and produce rankings based on how well teams actually play, not how they're perceived to play.

	Objective
	FO	TR	SAG	BG	Aikman	PFR	CHFF	Massey	ARGH	538	FPI		Average		Change in Value
Patriots	1	1	1	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.182		0.182
Packers	3	2	2	6	5	8	2	2	2	2	4		3.455		-0.728
Bengals	4	5	4	8	4	6	4	3	3	4	7		4.727		0.546
Cardinals	2	6	5	16	3	2	3	9	5	8	2		5.546		-1.000
Steelers	6	7	6	7	7	4	6	6	7	6	5		6.091		0.909
Jets	5	9	9	5	1	3	7	7	9	14	6		6.818		1.909
Broncos	10	3	3	12	8	11	14	4	4	3	12		7.636		-0.909
Eagles	7	8	8	4	10	5	11	10	10	9	3		7.727		4.182
Panthers	11	10	11	15	6	14	5	5	6	7	13		9.364		1.909
Falcons	15	18	10	1	9	7	9	8	8	11	9		9.546		-2.182
Seahawks	8	4	7	18	17	12	12	11	12	5	8		10.364		-1.455
Bills	9	16	12	10	14	10	8	13	13	15	10		11.818		-1.454
Giants	12	21	14	9	13	9	13	16	14	17	20		14.364		-2.637
Vikings	25	11	13	19	12	17	10	12	11	13	19		14.727		1.455
Cowboys	23	19	15	3	25	16	15	14	15	12	15		15.636		0.637
Colts	17	12	17	20	23	23	27	15	18	10	11		17.546		-0.637
Chargers	19	17	19	21	16	19	22	18	16	20	18		18.636		0.455
Ravens	13	13	16	32	19	18	23	20	22	16	14		18.727		-2.000
Dolphins	22	15	18	11	22	20	19	22	19	23	16		18.818		8.182
Rams	14	20	21	14	20	15	29	17	17	24	22		19.364		-1.546
Chiefs	16	14	20	25	29	25	20	25	20	19	17		20.909		-0.636
Redskins	20	27	23	13	15	13	26	28	25	29	26		22.273		-3.727
Saints	24	23	22	31	24	21	21	21	21	21	21		22.727		2.909
Raiders	18	28	26	24	11	24	18	24	24	27	29		23.000		-0.454
Browns	21	25	25	26	27	22	16	23	26	26	23		23.636		0.182
49ers	32	26	27	17	32	26	28	19	23	18	28		25.091		1.364
Texans	30	24	28	27	21	29	25	27	28	22	25		26.000		1.273
Lions	27	22	24	22	28	28	32	29	29	25	24		26.364		0.363
Titans	26	30	30	29	18	27	17	31	31	31	27		27.000		-4.091
Bears	31	29	29	23	26	30	30	26	27	28	30		28.091		-1.727
Buccaneers	29	31	31	28	30	32	24	30	30	30	32		29.727		0.000
Jaguars	28	32	32	30	31	31	31	32	32	32	31		31.091		-1.273

Observations:

• Patriots on top of the Objective board, though it's not unanimous.
• Football Outsiders has the Broncos at 10th. Per DVOA, the Broncos has have the best Defense in the league, but the worst (!) offense. Their Defense is better than their Offense is bad, and they have a decent Special Teams, so it all adds up to a top-10 team still.
• Chargers, despite the loss, still rose a little in the rankings.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
	FO	TR	SAG	BG	Aikman	PFR	CHFF	Massey	ARGH	538	FPI		STD DEV		Change in Value
Patriots	1	1	1	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1		0.386		-0.095
Steelers	6	7	6	7	7	4	6	6	7	6	5		0.900		-0.145
Jaguars	28	32	32	30	31	31	31	32	32	32	31		1.164		-1.458
Bengals	4	5	4	8	4	6	4	3	3	4	7		1.543		0.123
Chargers	19	17	19	21	16	19	22	18	16	20	18		1.823		0.444
Packers	3	2	2	6	5	8	2	2	2	2	4		1.971		0.919
Buccaneers	29	31	31	28	30	32	24	30	30	30	32		2.136		-0.461
Bears	31	29	29	23	26	30	30	26	27	28	30		2.275		-1.821
Bills	9	16	12	10	14	10	8	13	13	15	10		2.480		0.986
Eagles	7	8	8	4	10	5	11	10	10	9	3		2.562		-1.017
Texans	30	24	28	27	21	29	25	27	28	22	25		2.730		0.240
Saints	24	23	22	31	24	21	21	21	21	21	21		2.863		0.556
Browns	21	25	25	26	27	22	16	23	26	26	23		3.023		0.899
Lions	27	22	24	22	28	28	32	29	29	25	24		3.053		-0.054
Jets	5	9	9	5	1	3	7	7	9	14	6		3.325		-0.562
Dolphins	22	15	18	11	22	20	19	22	19	23	16		3.486		-0.056
Panthers	11	10	11	15	6	14	5	5	6	7	13		3.549		-0.543
Giants	12	21	14	9	13	9	13	16	14	17	20		3.724		0.337
Cardinals	2	6	5	16	3	2	3	9	5	8	2		4.031		0.557
Broncos	10	3	3	12	8	11	14	4	4	3	12		4.118		0.678
Falcons	15	18	10	1	9	7	9	8	8	11	9		4.142		0.369
Seahawks	8	4	7	18	17	12	12	11	12	5	8		4.291		-0.291
Chiefs	16	14	20	25	29	25	20	25	20	19	17		4.358		0.135
Rams	14	20	21	14	20	15	29	17	17	24	22		4.396		0.808
Vikings	25	11	13	19	12	17	10	12	11	13	19		4.454		1.902
Titans	26	30	30	29	18	27	17	31	31	31	27		4.786		-1.545
49ers	32	26	27	17	32	26	28	19	23	18	28		4.999		0.770
Raiders	18	28	26	24	11	24	18	24	24	27	29		5.081		0.501
Colts	17	12	17	20	23	23	27	15	18	10	11		5.159		-0.359
Ravens	13	13	16	32	19	18	23	20	22	16	14		5.310		1.843
Cowboys	23	19	15	3	25	16	15	14	15	12	15		5.482		0.526
Redskins	20	27	23	13	15	13	26	28	25	29	26		5.770		-1.084

Observations:

• Good luck trying to figure out Washington or Dallas. What's wrong with the Ravens this year? Nobody knows!
  
• Aikman's ratings sure does like the Raiders.

Overall Average

Now let's compare the two sets of data. We'll start with the "Overall Average" chart. This takes the Subjective Average and the Objective Average, and then averages those two numbers. This way it gives equal weight to both averages so that even though Subjective Average has a larger sample size, it doesn't drown out the Objective Average.

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		Average		Change in Value
Patriots	1.000	1.182		1.091		0.136
Packers	2.364	3.455		2.909		-0.545
Bengals	2.818	4.727		3.773		0.409
Broncos	4.818	7.636		6.227		-0.591
Cardinals	8.000	5.546		6.773		-1.773
Jets	6.818	6.818		6.818		1.773
Panthers	4.273	9.364		6.818		2.318
Steelers	7.818	6.091		6.955		1.863
Falcons	7.455	9.546		8.500		-2.273
Eagles	11.273	7.727		9.500		5.273
Vikings	10.546	14.727		12.636		1.819
Seahawks	15.091	10.364		12.727		-2.954
Bills	14.364	11.818		13.091		-2.136
Giants	14.273	14.364		14.318		-3.136
Colts	12.546	17.546		15.046		-0.137
Cowboys	18.273	15.636		16.955		0.318
Rams	15.455	19.364		17.409		-0.682
Chargers	17.091	18.636		17.864		-0.091
Dolphins	20.273	18.818		19.545		7.410
Raiders	20.727	23.000		21.864		-0.455
Browns	21.273	23.636		22.455		-0.319
Saints	22.364	22.727		22.545		4.182
Redskins	22.818	22.273		22.545		-3.681
49ers	21.727	25.091		23.409		3.409
Ravens	28.273	18.727		23.500		-3.545
Chiefs	29.000	20.909		24.955		-2.682
Texans	25.273	26.000		25.636		3.000
Bears	25.273	28.091		26.682		-2.682
Lions	28.364	26.364		27.364		1.727
Buccaneers	26.546	29.727		28.136		-0.454
Titans	30.182	27.000		28.591		-4.227
Jaguars	31.636	31.091		31.364		-1.273

Observations:

• Patriots getting better, Packers getting worse.
• Jets went up just as much as Cardinals went down this week.
• Chargers are firmly in the middle of the pack.
• Eagles crack the upper-echelon.

Overall Standard Deviation

The Overall Standard Deviation does not average anything out, it just takes the Standard Deviation across all the rankings. Yes this will even things out slightly, but it goes to show which teams have consensus across the board.

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		STD DEV		Change in Value
Patriots	1.000	1.182		0.288		-0.131
Jaguars	31.636	31.091		1.189		-1.004
Steelers	7.818	6.091		1.430		-0.879
Packers	2.364	3.455		1.535		0.654
Bengals	2.818	4.727		1.565		0.009
Chargers	17.091	18.636		2.322		0.213
Jets	6.818	6.818		2.480		-0.422
Texans	25.273	26.000		2.550		0.223
Bills	14.364	11.818		2.557		1.005
Eagles	11.273	7.727		2.624		-1.564
Buccaneers	26.546	29.727		2.752		-0.162
Saints	22.364	22.727		2.824		0.390
Lions	28.364	26.364		2.837		-0.423
Giants	14.273	14.364		2.867		0.280
Bears	25.273	28.091		2.945		-1.066
Falcons	7.455	9.546		3.230		0.261
Browns	21.273	23.636		3.272		0.621
Broncos	4.818	7.636		3.274		0.551
Cardinals	8.000	5.546		3.288		0.677
Panthers	4.273	9.364		3.601		-0.046
Dolphins	20.273	18.818		3.787		0.437
Titans	30.182	27.000		3.892		-1.176
Vikings	10.546	14.727		3.983		0.987
Rams	15.455	19.364		4.086		1.053
Seahawks	15.091	10.364		4.103		0.374
Raiders	20.727	23.000		4.126		0.413
49ers	21.727	25.091		4.228		0.986
Redskins	22.818	22.273		4.459		-0.535
Cowboys	18.273	15.636		4.666		0.530
Colts	12.546	17.546		4.705		0.153
Chiefs	29.000	20.909		5.174		1.093
Ravens	28.273	18.727		6.229		1.876

Difference in Averages

This compares the Subjective average ranking with the Objective average ranking. This tells us just how far off people are from the formulas. A positive number means people think they will be or are better than the stats indicate, a negative number means the math thinks they're better than what people think. The closer to 0 this number is, the more in agreement the Subjective and Objective rankings are.

Generally speaking, the Subjective Rankings tend to be more reactionary to a team's performance than the mathematical models are. You'll often end up with major peaks and valleys for a team in the Subjective rankings, where the Objective rankings are more steady.

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		Diff. in Avg		Change in Value
Panthers	4.273	9.364		5.091		0.818
Colts	12.546	17.546		5.000		1.000
Vikings	10.546	14.727		4.182		0.727
Rams	15.455	19.364		3.909		1.727
49ers	21.727	25.091		3.364		4.091
Buccaneers	26.546	29.727		3.182		-0.909
Broncos	4.818	7.636		2.818		0.636
Bears	25.273	28.091		2.818		-1.909
Browns	21.273	23.636		2.364		-1.000
Raiders	20.727	23.000		2.273		0.000
Falcons	7.455	9.546		2.091		-0.182
Bengals	2.818	4.727		1.909		-0.273
Chargers	17.091	18.636		1.546		-1.090
Packers	2.364	3.455		1.091		0.364
Texans	25.273	26.000		0.727		3.454
Saints	22.364	22.727		0.364		2.546
Patriots	1.000	1.182		0.182		-0.091
Giants	14.273	14.364		0.091		-1.000
Jets	6.818	6.818		0.000		-0.273
Redskins	22.818	22.273		-0.546		0.090
Jaguars	31.636	31.091		-0.546		-0.001
Dolphins	20.273	18.818		-1.455		-1.546
Steelers	7.818	6.091		-1.727		1.909
Lions	28.364	26.364		-2.000		2.727
Cardinals	8.000	5.546		-2.455		-1.546
Bills	14.364	11.818		-2.545		-1.363
Cowboys	18.273	15.636		-2.636		-0.636
Titans	30.182	27.000		-3.182		-0.273
Eagles	11.273	7.727		-3.545		2.182
Seahawks	15.091	10.364		-4.727		-3.000
Chiefs	29.000	20.909		-8.091		-4.091
Ravens	28.273	18.727		-9.545		-3.090

Observations:

• I know they're undefeated and all, but the Panthers may not be as good as we want to believe just yet.
• Is there a pro Colts bias? You better believe it.
• The Ravens haven't looked good, no, but they've been playing better than their record would let you believe.
• Chiefs, I think, are rightly "under ranked" now because they looked terrible in their first game without Jamaal Charles. This is one of those instances of the pundits reacting faster than the statistics.
• Expectations were high in Seattle this year, and while disappointing, the Seahawks are still playing good football.
• Eagles still under-ranked, but not criminally so anymore.

Sources

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