SB Nation

John Crean | October 15, 2015

2015 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 6

Here comes the NFC East

What looked like the laughing stock of the NFL to start the season, the NFC East continues to surprise and climb the board.

In an effort to just get these out the door, I'm once again presenting the following charts without my observations at the bottom. Feel free to draw your own conclusions from the data and comment below. I apologize for doing this a second week in a row but this has been the week from hell for me.

I've been getting a number of questions in recent weeks about my methodology. Each section below has a paragraph explaining the charts below them. I hope this helps to clear up some confusion and makes it easier to follow. Should you have any qeustion about how a site derives their rankings, I list all the source I use for these charts at the bottom of this post.

Notable Quotes

At least they won’t have to worry about hosting any playoff games in San Diego after applying for permission to relocate to L.A.

Congratulations to Antonio Gates for his 100th and 101st TD. The core belief system for the front office of this franchise needs to change. Games are won and lost at the line. Runs up the middle would be much more effective without guys nobody has ever heard of starting in front of Rivers. On that note, outside of Rivers, Gates, Woodhead, and Verrett, where is the fire, the competitiveness? There were at least 3 big plays that the team looked like they gave up on. Fans deserve better.

The Chargers are now 2–2 in games decided by five or fewer points this season. Between the MASH unit posing as an offensive line and a defense that's allowing upward of 130 yards per game on the ground, it’s fair to wonder if San Diego will be able to find any easy wins.

Division Averages

Before we get to looking at where all the teams rank, let's take look at the bigger picture in the NFL. This table takes the average rankings for each team, then averages the rankings of each team in the division. It's used as a way of showing where the tougher and weaker divisions lie each week.

Division Week 5 Average Week 6 Average Difference
AFC East 12.170 11.932 0.238
AFC North 14.364 13.773 0.591
NFC West 14.159 14.580 -0.421
NFC East 16.557 15.523 1.034
AFC West 15.295 16.773 -1.478
NFC South 17.477 17.443 0.034
NFC North 17.807 17.477 0.330
AFC South 24.170 24.500 -0.330

Stock Rising

Team Week 5 Average Week 6 Average Difference
CLE 26.500 22.136 4.364
CHI 28.182 24.000 4.182
PHI 18.591 14.773 3.818
TB 30.909 27.682 3.227
IND 17.273 14.909 2.364

Stock Falling

Team Week 5 Average Week 6 Average Difference
KC 18.136 22.273 -4.137
DET 26.136 29.091 -2.955
BAL 17.136 19.955 -2.819
NO 24.182 26.727 -2.545
DAL 14.864 17.273 -2.409

Subjective Average

We'll start off with the Subjective Average. These rankings are the ones that has actual people ranking the teams based on their gut feelings. You'll see in a moment that some of these sites may even just throw darts at a board, or have a chicken pecking at numbers.

I then take all those rankings and average them together, then sort the table based on the average ranking. This method evens out the peaks and valleys and allows us to get a more reliable "big picture" view of the perception of where teams rank in the league.

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit AP Average Change in Value
Patriots 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.091 0.091 Rising
Packers 2 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2.000 -0.182 Falling
Bengals 5 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3.091 0.364 Rising
Broncos 4 6 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 6 4 4.546 -0.819 Falling
Falcons 3 4 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 5.091 0.364 Rising
Cardinals 6 5 7 5 4 6 6 7 4 4 6 5.455 0.909 Rising
Panthers 7 8 5 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 7.000 -0.545 Falling
Jets 11 7 8 11 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 8.455 0.181 Rising
Steelers 9 12 13 9 12 10 13 10 8 12 9 10.636 1.000 Rising
Seahawks 8 13 12 7 10 11 9 13 15 9 10 10.636 -2.545 Falling
Giants 12 10 10 13 11 9 10 9 11 11 11 10.636 2.000 Rising
Bills 10 11 11 14 13 13 11 11 10 10 13 11.546 0.636 Rising
Vikings 16 9 15 10 9 15 12 14 13 13 14 12.727 0.455 Rising
Colts 13 14 9 12 14 16 14 12 12 14 12 12.909 2.637 Rising
Rams 17 15 18 15 15 12 15 19 16 15 15 15.636 -2.545 Falling
Chargers 14 19 14 17 19 19 16 17 14 16 16 16.455 -0.546 Falling
Eagles 15 18 17 20 16 24 18 15 17 17 17 17.636 4.728 Rising
Cowboys 18 16 16 18 22 14 22 16 23 18 18 18.273 -2.546 Falling
Redskins 21 17 20 19 17 21 17 18 21 19 21 19.182 0.545 Rising
Raiders 22 22 21 16 23 18 19 21 22 20 19 20.273 -0.364 Falling
Browns 20 23 22 21 18 17 20 23 18 21 22 20.455 5.636 Rising
Bears 24 21 19 24 20 23 24 20 19 24 20 21.636 6.091 Rising
Ravens 23 27 27 22 21 20 21 25 24 22 23 23.182 -4.091 Falling
Chiefs 19 28 23 27 25 26 25 27 20 23 24 24.273 -5.546 Falling
Buccaneers 28 25 25 23 27 25 26 24 26 27 26 25.636 5.182 Rising
Titans 27 20 24 26 29 28 23 28 29 25 25 25.818 -2.182 Falling
Dolphins 29 26 30 32 24 22 28 22 27 26 30 26.909 -0.091 Falling
49ers 25 24 28 30 26 27 29 26 28 28 28 27.182 1.364 Rising
Saints 26 29 26 25 28 31 30 30 25 29 27 27.818 -3.182 Falling
Texans 30 31 31 28 30 29 31 31 30 30 29 30.000 -2.454 Falling
Jaguars 32 32 29 29 32 30 27 29 31 31 32 30.364 -1.273 Falling
Lions 31 30 32 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 31 31.455 -3.273 Falling

Subjective Standard Deviation

Put simply, Standard Deviation is a tool in statistics to measure how much variance there is in a set of numbers. To put more simply: I use it to look at who's ranked the most- and least-consistently. In Standard Deviation, the lower the number, the more consistent the values in the set.

For our purposes, this means the lower the Standard Deviation, the more consistent the rankings. The opposite is true too: the higher the number, the less consistent the rankings.

This table is sorted by most-consistently ranked to least-consistently ranked.

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit AP STD DEV Change in Value
Patriots 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.288 -0.098 Falling
Packers 2 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0.426 0.040 Rising
Lions 31 30 32 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 31 0.656 -1.896 Falling
Bengals 5 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0.668 -0.114 Falling
Broncos 4 6 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 6 4 0.782 0.337 Rising
Panthers 7 8 5 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 0.853 -0.135 Falling
Falcons 3 4 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 0.900 -0.088 Falling
Texans 30 31 31 28 30 29 31 31 30 30 29 0.954 -0.771 Falling
Cardinals 6 5 7 5 4 6 6 7 4 4 6 1.076 0.008 Rising
Giants 12 10 10 13 11 9 10 9 11 11 11 1.150 -0.622 Falling
Jets 11 7 8 11 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 1.305 0.424 Rising
Buccaneers 28 25 25 23 27 25 26 24 26 27 26 1.367 -0.099 Falling
Bills 10 11 11 14 13 13 11 11 10 10 13 1.373 -0.154 Falling
Jaguars 32 32 29 29 32 30 27 29 31 31 32 1.611 -0.855 Falling
Redskins 21 17 20 19 17 21 17 18 21 19 21 1.641 -0.537 Falling
49ers 25 24 28 30 26 27 29 26 28 28 28 1.696 -0.228 Falling
Steelers 9 12 13 9 12 10 13 10 8 12 9 1.720 -0.424 Falling
Colts 13 14 9 12 14 16 14 12 12 14 12 1.730 -0.501 Falling
Rams 17 15 18 15 15 12 15 19 16 15 15 1.772 -0.581 Falling
Chargers 14 19 14 17 19 19 16 17 14 16 16 1.876 -0.477 Falling
Browns 20 23 22 21 18 17 20 23 18 21 22 1.971 -0.807 Falling
Raiders 22 22 21 16 23 18 19 21 22 20 19 2.004 0.223 Rising
Saints 26 29 26 25 28 31 30 30 25 29 27 2.037 -0.348 Falling
Bears 24 21 19 24 20 23 24 20 19 24 20 2.057 -1.303 Falling
Ravens 23 27 27 22 21 20 21 25 24 22 23 2.249 0.228 Rising
Seahawks 8 13 12 7 10 11 9 13 15 9 10 2.307 1.311 Rising
Vikings 16 9 15 10 9 15 12 14 13 13 14 2.339 0.393 Rising
Eagles 15 18 17 20 16 24 18 15 17 17 17 2.422 0.702 Rising
Titans 27 20 24 26 29 28 23 28 29 25 25 2.657 0.161 Rising
Chiefs 19 28 23 27 25 26 25 27 20 23 24 2.733 0.067 Rising
Cowboys 18 16 16 18 22 14 22 16 23 18 18 2.766 -0.129 Falling
Dolphins 29 26 30 32 24 22 28 22 27 26 30 3.147 0.137 Rising

Objective Average

I call these rankings the "Objective" rankings because unlike the rankings above, these are rankings based on statistical models of some sort. I use the term "Objective" loosely here because there is still some inherent bias in how the various models are constructed. Each ranking site has their own criteria in what they feel is success in the NFL.

All that said, these rankings are more objective as they remove perception and bias and produce rankings based on how well teams actually play, not how they're perceived to play.

Objective
FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI Average Change in Value
Patriots 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1.364 0.636 Rising
Packers 3 2 2 3 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 2.727 0.546 Rising
Cardinals 2 5 3 14 3 2 1 6 6 6 2 4.546 0.181 Rising
Bengals 4 6 5 8 4 7 4 4 4 5 7 5.273 -0.637 Falling
Broncos 7 3 4 10 8 11 11 3 3 3 11 6.727 -1.363 Falling
Steelers 6 7 8 6 9 6 6 8 8 7 6 7.000 0.909 Rising
Falcons 12 15 7 1 7 3 9 5 5 9 8 7.364 -0.455 Falling
Jets 10 9 9 11 1 5 5 10 10 17 9 8.727 0.728 Rising
Seahawks 5 4 6 16 18 12 10 9 9 4 5 8.909 -0.182 Falling
Bills 9 12 10 12 12 9 7 11 11 11 10 10.364 0.000 No Change
Panthers 13 16 13 13 6 19 8 7 7 8 14 11.273 -0.455 Falling
Giants 8 17 12 5 13 8 12 12 12 14 16 11.727 0.364 Rising
Eagles 11 8 11 17 16 10 15 14 13 12 4 11.909 2.909 Rising
Vikings 19 11 16 20 15 18 14 16 14 16 19 16.182 -0.636 Falling
Cowboys 24 19 15 4 21 15 20 15 16 13 17 16.273 -2.273 Falling
Ravens 14 13 14 25 19 16 17 18 20 15 13 16.727 -1.545 Falling
Colts 21 10 17 15 23 23 27 13 15 10 12 16.909 2.091 Rising
Rams 15 20 20 9 20 14 21 17 19 21 20 17.818 -0.091 Falling
Redskins 16 27 21 7 10 13 13 24 21 29 23 18.546 2.545 Rising
Chargers 20 18 19 22 17 21 19 19 18 19 18 19.091 0.000 No Change
Chiefs 23 14 18 23 29 24 22 20 17 18 15 20.273 -2.727 Falling
Raiders 17 28 25 21 14 22 18 25 22 27 29 22.546 -0.455 Falling
Titans 18 26 29 27 11 17 16 30 26 31 21 22.909 1.091 Rising
Browns 22 24 24 24 28 20 24 21 24 26 25 23.818 3.091 Rising
Saints 25 23 26 31 26 26 25 26 28 24 22 25.636 -1.909 Falling
Bears 30 30 30 18 22 28 29 22 23 28 30 26.364 2.272 Rising
49ers 32 29 28 19 31 25 31 23 25 20 28 26.455 -0.455 Falling
Lions 27 22 23 28 30 27 32 28 29 22 26 26.727 -2.636 Falling
Dolphins 28 21 22 32 32 29 30 27 27 25 24 27.000 -0.273 Falling
Texans 31 25 27 26 24 30 28 29 30 23 27 27.273 -1.637 Falling
Buccaneers 29 31 32 29 27 32 23 31 31 30 32 29.727 1.273 Rising
Jaguars 26 32 31 30 25 31 26 32 32 32 31 29.818 -0.909 Falling

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI STD DEV Change in Value
Patriots 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 0.481 -1.277 Falling
Steelers 6 7 8 6 9 6 6 8 8 7 6 1.045 -0.460 Falling
Packers 3 2 2 3 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 1.052 -1.843 Falling
Chargers 20 18 19 22 17 21 19 19 18 19 18 1.379 -1.087 Falling
Bengals 4 6 5 8 4 7 4 4 4 5 7 1.420 0.194 Rising
Bills 9 12 10 12 12 9 7 11 11 11 10 1.494 -1.469 Falling
Browns 22 24 24 24 28 20 24 21 24 26 25 2.124 0.394 Rising
Saints 25 23 26 31 26 26 25 26 28 24 22 2.307 -0.588 Falling
Texans 31 25 27 26 24 30 28 29 30 23 27 2.490 0.068 Rising
Vikings 19 11 16 20 15 18 14 16 14 16 19 2.552 -0.256 Falling
Buccaneers 29 31 32 29 27 32 23 31 31 30 32 2.597 0.597 Rising
Jaguars 26 32 31 30 25 31 26 32 32 32 31 2.622 0.347 Rising
Lions 27 22 23 28 30 27 32 28 29 22 26 3.107 -0.040 Falling
Giants 8 17 12 5 13 8 12 12 12 14 16 3.387 -0.757 Falling
Broncos 7 3 4 10 8 11 11 3 3 3 11 3.440 0.048 Rising
Ravens 14 13 14 25 19 16 17 18 20 15 13 3.467 -0.729 Falling
Cardinals 2 5 3 14 3 2 1 6 6 6 2 3.474 1.381 Rising
Dolphins 28 21 22 32 32 29 30 27 27 25 24 3.542 0.776 Rising
Eagles 11 8 11 17 16 10 15 14 13 12 4 3.579 -1.317 Falling
Rams 15 20 20 9 20 14 21 17 19 21 20 3.588 0.452 Rising
Falcons 12 15 7 1 7 3 9 5 5 9 8 3.773 0.169 Rising
Jets 10 9 9 11 1 5 5 10 10 17 9 3.887 -0.053 Falling
Panthers 13 16 13 13 6 19 8 7 7 8 14 4.092 -0.168 Falling
Bears 30 30 30 18 22 28 29 22 23 28 30 4.096 2.129 Rising
Chiefs 23 14 18 23 29 24 22 20 17 18 15 4.223 0.059 Rising
49ers 32 29 28 19 31 25 31 23 25 20 28 4.229 -2.067 Falling
Raiders 17 28 25 21 14 22 18 25 22 27 29 4.580 -0.215 Falling
Seahawks 5 4 6 16 18 12 10 9 9 4 5 4.582 -0.946 Falling
Cowboys 24 19 15 4 21 15 20 15 16 13 17 4.956 2.470 Rising
Colts 21 10 17 15 23 23 27 13 15 10 12 5.518 0.828 Rising
Titans 18 26 29 27 11 17 16 30 26 31 21 6.331 -0.261 Falling
Redskins 16 27 21 7 10 13 13 24 21 29 23 6.854 1.271 Rising

Overall Average

Now let's compare the two sets of data. We'll start with the "Overall Average" chart. This takes the Subjective Average and the Objective Average, and then averages those two numbers. This way it gives equal weight to both averages so that even though Subjective Average has a larger sample size, it doesn't drown out the Objective Average.

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Average Change in Value
Patriots 1.091 1.364 1.227 0.364 Rising
Packers 2.000 2.727 2.364 0.181 Rising
Bengals 3.091 5.273 4.182 -0.137 Falling
Cardinals 5.455 4.546 5.000 0.545 Rising
Broncos 4.546 6.727 5.636 -1.091 Falling
Falcons 5.091 7.364 6.227 -0.045 Falling
Jets 8.455 8.727 8.591 0.454 Rising
Steelers 10.636 7.000 8.818 0.955 Rising
Panthers 7.000 11.273 9.136 -0.500 Falling
Seahawks 10.636 8.909 9.773 -1.364 Falling
Bills 11.546 10.364 10.955 0.318 Rising
Giants 10.636 11.727 11.182 1.182 Rising
Vikings 12.727 16.182 14.455 -0.091 Falling
Eagles 17.636 11.909 14.773 3.818 Rising
Colts 12.909 16.909 14.909 2.364 Rising
Rams 15.636 17.818 16.727 -1.318 Falling
Cowboys 18.273 16.273 17.273 -2.409 Falling
Chargers 16.455 19.091 17.773 -0.273 Falling
Redskins 19.182 18.546 18.864 1.545 Rising
Ravens 23.182 16.727 19.955 -2.819 Falling
Raiders 20.273 22.546 21.409 -0.409 Falling
Browns 20.455 23.818 22.136 4.364 Rising
Chiefs 24.273 20.273 22.273 -4.137 Falling
Bears 21.636 26.364 24.000 4.182 Rising
Titans 25.818 22.909 24.364 -0.546 Falling
Saints 27.818 25.636 26.727 -2.545 Falling
49ers 27.182 26.455 26.818 0.455 Rising
Dolphins 26.909 27.000 26.955 -0.182 Falling
Buccaneers 25.636 29.727 27.682 3.227 Rising
Texans 30.000 27.273 28.636 -2.045 Falling
Lions 31.455 26.727 29.091 -2.955 Falling
Jaguars 30.364 29.818 30.091 -1.091 Falling

Overall Standard Deviation

The Overall Standard Deviation does not average anything out, it just takes the Standard Deviation across all the rankings. Yes this will even things out slightly, but it goes to show which teams have consensus across the board.

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg STD DEV Change in Value
Patriots 1.091 1.364 0.419 -0.918 Falling
Packers 2.000 2.727 0.881 -1.308 Falling
Bills 11.546 10.364 1.552 -0.974 Falling
Bengals 3.091 5.273 1.556 0.370 Rising
Chargers 16.455 19.091 2.109 -0.779 Falling
Jaguars 30.364 29.818 2.193 -0.181 Falling
Steelers 10.636 7.000 2.309 -0.318 Falling
Texans 30.000 27.273 2.327 0.018 Rising
Saints 27.818 25.636 2.434 -0.257 Falling
Giants 10.636 11.727 2.587 -0.612 Falling
Cardinals 5.455 4.546 2.611 0.759 Rising
Browns 20.455 23.818 2.651 0.301 Rising
Broncos 4.546 6.727 2.723 0.169 Rising
Jets 8.455 8.727 2.902 0.018 Rising
Buccaneers 25.636 29.727 2.914 1.158 Rising
Falcons 5.091 7.364 2.969 0.228 Rising
Vikings 12.727 16.182 2.996 0.307 Rising
Rams 15.636 17.818 3.033 -0.581 Falling
49ers 27.182 26.455 3.242 -1.584 Falling
Lions 31.455 26.727 3.260 -0.260 Falling
Dolphins 26.909 27.000 3.350 0.459 Rising
Panthers 7.000 11.273 3.647 -0.138 Falling
Raiders 20.273 22.546 3.713 -0.065 Falling
Seahawks 10.636 8.909 3.729 -0.256 Falling
Bears 21.636 26.364 4.011 1.221 Rising
Chiefs 24.273 20.273 4.081 0.535 Rising
Cowboys 18.273 16.273 4.136 1.303 Rising
Eagles 17.636 11.909 4.188 -1.075 Falling
Ravens 23.182 16.727 4.353 0.524 Rising
Colts 12.909 16.909 4.552 0.493 Rising
Redskins 19.182 18.546 4.994 0.702 Rising
Titans 25.818 22.909 5.068 0.080 Rising

Difference in Averages

This compares the Subjective average ranking with the Objective average ranking. This tells us just how far off people are from the formulas. A positive number means people think they will be or are better than the stats indicate, a negative number means the math thinks they're better than what people think. The closer to 0 this number is, the more in agreement the Subjective and Objective rankings are.

Generally speaking, the Subjective Rankings tend to be more reactionary to a team's performance than the mathematical models are. You'll often end up with major peaks and valleys for a team in the Subjective rankings, where the Objective rankings are more steady.

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Diff. in Avg Change in Value
Bears 21.636 26.364 4.727 3.818 Rising
Panthers 7.000 11.273 4.273 -0.091 Rising
Buccaneers 25.636 29.727 4.091 3.909 Rising
Colts 12.909 16.909 4.000 0.545 Rising
Vikings 12.727 16.182 3.455 1.091 Rising
Browns 20.455 23.818 3.364 2.546 Rising
Chargers 16.455 19.091 2.636 -0.546 Rising
Falcons 5.091 7.364 2.273 0.818 Rising
Raiders 20.273 22.546 2.273 0.091 Rising
Bengals 3.091 5.273 2.182 1.000 Rising
Broncos 4.546 6.727 2.182 0.546 Rising
Rams 15.636 17.818 2.182 -2.454 Rising
Giants 10.636 11.727 1.091 1.637 Rising
Packers 2.000 2.727 0.727 -0.728 Rising
Jets 8.455 8.727 0.273 -0.545 Rising
Patriots 1.091 1.364 0.273 -0.545 Rising
Dolphins 26.909 27.000 0.091 0.182 Rising
Jaguars 30.364 29.818 -0.545 -0.363 Rising
Redskins 19.182 18.546 -0.636 -2.000 Rising
49ers 27.182 26.455 -0.727 1.819 Rising
Cardinals 5.455 4.546 -0.909 0.727 Rising
Bills 11.546 10.364 -1.182 0.636 Rising
Seahawks 10.636 8.909 -1.727 -2.363 Rising
Cowboys 18.273 16.273 -2.000 -0.273 Rising
Saints 27.818 25.636 -2.182 -1.273 Rising
Texans 30.000 27.273 -2.727 -0.818 Rising
Titans 25.818 22.909 -2.909 -3.273 Rising
Steelers 10.636 7.000 -3.636 0.091 Rising
Chiefs 24.273 20.273 -4.000 -2.818 Rising
Lions 31.455 26.727 -4.727 -0.636 Rising
Eagles 17.636 11.909 -5.727 1.818 Rising
Ravens 23.182 16.727 -6.455 -2.546 Rising

Observations:

  • [ Changeme ]

Sources

Subjective Objective
ESPN Football Outsiders
Fox Team Rankings
CBS Sagarin
USA Today BeatGraphs
Sports Illustrated Aikman Efficiency
ProFootballTalk Pro Football Reference
NFL.com Cold Hard Football Facts
SportingNews Massey
SB Nation ARGH
Reddit Five Thirty Eight
Associated Press Football Power Index

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