2015 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 4

With three games in the books, a consensus is starting to emerge and teams are settling in to their respective rankings. There is still a bit of movement, and a few surprises.

Three weeks in and we're one step closer to knowing everything there is to know about all 32 teams in the NFL. Or so we think, if the prominent storylines in the mainstream media are to be believed. The real 49ers have shown up, the 49ers in week 1 were just pretenders. The optimism for Miami has all but died. Oakland has won two games now? They're finally good again! Maybe we were wrong to bury the Eagles and call Chip Kelly a failure after just two games?

That's the beauty of the NFL, each week the narrative changes and keeps things interesting.

The big question this week seems to be: just how good are the Arizona Cardinals? Are they an elite team? Have they proven themselves?

Personally, I've always liked the Cardinals. When the Chargers were looking for a new head coach after they fired Norv Turner, I didn't like the idea of Bruce Arians. Boy was I wrong. Arians is playing football the right way: balls out. "We're up by 3 scores? So what!? Keep the foot on the gas and obliterate our opponent!" Playing like a coach who has nothing to lose, I can respect that.

Notable Quotes

2015 is shaping up to be just like 2014. Everyone is hurt, play calling is predictable, no O-line. The defense is holding out as best they can, but there is little to no offensive support, thus leading to a tired defense. In Chargers fashion, they are losing games they are supposed to win and will probably win games they are supposed to lose. That last bit seems doubtful this year.

Not the way coach Mike McCoy -- or the Chargers' run defense, or the stinkin' offensive line -- drew it up, surely. Holy cow did San Diego's front five get blown off the ball on some key sequences. Bolts rookie Melvin Gordon is physical on certain runs, tentative on others. Meanwhile, coordinator John Pagano's defense was mostly solid, allowing only 284 yards of offense in the loss to the Vikings. Still think the Chargers will come through. They have the Browns and Vick-led Steelers, both at home, coming up.

They play three of next four at home and get TE Antonio Gates back in a week. They've got top 10 offense and defense despite 1-2 start.

Division Averages

Stock Rising

Stock Falling

Subjective Average

	Subjective
	ESPN	Fox	CBS	USA	SI	PFT	NFL	SN	SBN	Reddit	AP		Average		Change in Value
Patriots	1	1	2	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1		1.182		0.151
Packers	3	2	1	2	2	2	1	2	3	2	2		2.000		-0.333
Cardinals	2	4	3	3	3	4	3	4	2	3	5		3.273		1.227
Broncos	4	3	5	4	4	3	5	3	4	4	3		3.818		-0.235
Bengals	5	5	4	5	5	5	4	5	5	5	4		4.727		0.606
Falcons	6	7	8	10	6	6	7	6	9	6	6		7.000		2.917
Bills	10	6	11	8	8	7	6	10	6	8	10		8.182		2.485
Seahawks	7	8	10	7	7	9	8	8	14	7	8		8.455		1.212
Panthers	9	10	7	6	11	10	10	7	7	10	7		8.546		3.121
Steelers	8	13	6	12	13	11	9	9	8	9	9		9.727		-1.394
Cowboys	11	11	9	13	10	8	15	11	12	12	12		11.273		-2.773
Vikings	13	9	12	9	9	13	11	15	11	14	11		11.546		4.787
Jets	15	14	17	14	12	14	13	12	13	13	14		13.727		-3.560
Chiefs	12	18	18	19	15	12	12	18	10	11	13		14.364		-5.031
Colts	14	12	13	11	16	20	14	13	19	15	16		14.818		2.349
Raiders	20	17	14	15	18	18	16	16	15	20	15		16.727		8.773
Eagles	17	15	16	20	17	22	20	14	17	18	17		17.546		5.037
Chargers	18	20	19	17	14	19	18	19	16	16	18		17.636		-4.219
Giants	16	16	15	18	20	25	19	20	23	17	20		19.000		5.417
Rams	19	21	28	16	19	17	17	22	18	21	19		19.727		-1.644
Ravens	22	23	20	21	22	15	22	21	20	19	23		20.727		-3.977
Dolphins	23	22	25	22	24	16	27	17	25	22	24		22.455		-5.372
Texans	21	24	24	25	23	23	25	27	22	25	21		23.636		4.114
Titans	24	19	26	24	28	24	24	24	29	26	22		24.546		1.704
Redskins	27	26	29	26	21	29	21	25	21	24	25		24.909		-2.409
Lions	25	25	21	23	26	28	23	30	24	23	26		24.909		-1.242
49ers	28	27	22	28	27	27	29	23	28	28	28		26.818		-6.151
Browns	26	29	27	31	25	21	28	28	27	27	27		26.909		-1.909
Jaguars	29	30	23	29	31	26	26	26	31	29	30		28.182		-2.515
Buccaneers	30	28	30	27	29	30	30	29	30	30	29		29.273		-0.023
Saints	31	31	31	30	30	31	31	31	26	31	31		30.364		-0.864
Bears	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		32.000		-0.250

Observations:

• Patriots moving one step closer to becoming the unanimous top team.
• Packers moving down a bit this week, with the Cardinals stealing a couple second-place votes from them.
• Unanimous consensus on which teams are top-5: Patriots, Packers, Cardinals, Broncos and Bengals. All 5 of those teams received votes in the 1-5 rankings; no other teams got top-5 votes.
• Falcons knocking on the door though and kind of coming out of nowhere. The Falcons started the season with an average subjective ranking of 22.444, so they've risen quite nicely.
• That Vikings front-7 has looked good the past two Sunday, as did Adrian Peterson; likely what has helped to propel the Vikings up in the rankings.
• Chargers are falling, and rightfully so right now.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
	ESPN	Fox	CBS	USA	SI	PFT	NFL	SN	SBN	Reddit	AP		STD DEV		Change in Value
Bears	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		0.000		-0.595
Patriots	1	1	2	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1		0.386		-0.085
Bengals	5	5	4	5	5	5	4	5	5	5	4		0.445		-0.661
Packers	3	2	1	2	2	2	1	2	3	2	2		0.603		0.132
Broncos	4	3	5	4	4	3	5	3	4	4	3		0.716		-0.322
Cardinals	2	4	3	3	3	4	3	4	2	3	5		0.862		-0.894
Buccaneers	30	28	30	27	29	30	30	29	30	30	29		0.962		-0.048
Falcons	6	7	8	10	6	6	7	6	9	6	6		1.348		-0.150
Jets	15	14	17	14	12	14	13	12	13	13	14		1.355		-1.348
Saints	31	31	31	30	30	31	31	31	26	31	31		1.432		-1.637
Chargers	18	20	19	17	14	19	18	19	16	16	18		1.666		-0.587
Panthers	9	10	7	6	11	10	10	7	7	10	7		1.671		-1.825
Bills	10	6	11	8	8	7	6	10	6	8	10		1.749		-1.176
Texans	21	24	24	25	23	23	25	27	22	25	21		1.772		-0.909
Cowboys	11	11	9	13	10	8	15	11	12	12	12		1.814		-2.339
Raiders	20	17	14	15	18	18	16	16	15	20	15		1.958		-0.672
Vikings	13	9	12	9	9	13	11	15	11	14	11		1.971		-0.778
Seahawks	7	8	10	7	7	9	8	8	14	7	8		1.971		-0.747
49ers	28	27	22	28	27	27	29	23	28	28	28		2.124		-0.404
Steelers	8	13	6	12	13	11	9	9	8	9	9		2.136		-1.035
Ravens	22	23	20	21	22	15	22	21	20	19	23		2.178		-1.014
Eagles	17	15	16	20	17	22	20	14	17	18	17		2.231		-1.408
Browns	26	29	27	31	25	21	28	28	27	27	27		2.391		-0.664
Lions	25	25	21	23	26	28	23	30	24	23	26		2.429		-0.380
Jaguars	29	30	23	29	31	26	26	26	31	29	30		2.443		-1.005
Titans	24	19	26	24	28	24	24	24	29	26	22		2.606		0.118
Colts	14	12	13	11	16	20	14	13	19	15	16		2.657		-0.310
Redskins	27	26	29	26	21	29	21	25	21	24	25		2.811		-0.897
Giants	16	16	15	18	20	25	19	20	23	17	20		2.923		-0.225
Rams	19	21	28	16	19	17	17	22	18	21	19		3.165		0.017
Chiefs	12	18	18	19	15	12	12	18	10	11	13		3.170		0.610
Dolphins	23	22	25	22	24	16	27	17	25	22	24		3.173		-0.001

Observations:

• Bears unanimously at the bottom of the heap. Kind of deserved when you punt the ball on all 10 of your possessions in a game.
• Overall, standard deviation went down more this week than it went up. Consensus is starting to form overall.
• Like I said, there is a unanimous consensus of the top-5 teams this week.
• The Jets ranking dropped quite a bit this week, but their standard deviation dropped considerably as well; rankers are starting to agree on them.
• Chargers are getting more settled.
• Rams, Chiefs, and Dolphins: the three teams nobody can seem to figure out.

Objective Average

	Objective
	FO	TR	SAG	BG	Aikman	PFR	CHFF	Massey	ARGH	538	FPI		Average		Change in Value
Patriots	1	1	1	2	5	2	3	1	1	1	2		1.818		0.849
Cardinals	2	5	4	7	1	8	1	6	4	5	1		4.000		3.111
Packers	3	3	3	8	11	12	4	3	3	3	3		5.091		1.909
Broncos	5	2	2	10	3	13	10	2	2	2	6		5.182		-0.738
Bills	8	8	8	6	4	5	2	4	8	9	5		6.091		5.798
Bengals	4	6	6	5	8	10	5	5	5	7	10		6.455		-0.011
Steelers	7	7	7	9	6	9	7	7	9	6	8		7.455		-1.233
Falcons	9	19	10	1	10	1	11	8	10	11	13		9.364		6.303
Seahawks	6	4	5	28	13	15	13	9	6	4	4		9.727		2.940
Panthers	11	17	15	4	7	19	6	10	7	10	15		11.000		0.778
Cowboys	22	13	9	3	15	3	12	11	12	8	18		11.455		-0.677
Jets	10	14	13	12	2	7	9	13	15	21	14		11.818		-4.262
Eagles	14	10	11	11	17	4	17	14	14	12	7		11.909		4.091
Chiefs	17	9	12	15	24	23	16	12	11	13	12		14.909		-2.353
Vikings	13	15	18	19	16	26	8	15	13	16	23		16.546		3.232
Ravens	16	12	14	21	22	20	22	17	21	15	11		17.364		0.303
Giants	15	21	16	16	20	6	14	22	18	22	22		17.455		3.545
Colts	18	11	17	23	26	11	29	16	19	14	9		17.546		0.232
Chargers	19	16	19	24	19	29	21	18	16	18	17		19.636		-6.080
Texans	28	23	22	20	18	27	19	20	20	19	16		21.091		1.687
Raiders	20	28	24	13	14	22	18	21	23	26	29		21.636		3.920
Rams	12	20	23	26	21	17	24	25	25	24	24		21.909		-0.465
Dolphins	26	18	20	18	27	21	27	23	24	23	20		22.455		-6.899
Titans	21	25	29	29	9	16	15	30	29	30	19		22.909		-1.576
Redskins	25	29	27	25	12	14	20	28	26	29	26		23.727		-0.505
Lions	23	22	21	27	23	30	28	24	22	20	25		24.091		-3.424
49ers	30	26	26	17	31	28	32	19	17	17	28		24.636		-5.192
Browns	27	27	28	22	28	18	23	26	28	27	27		25.546		-3.546
Saints	24	24	25	32	25	24	25	27	30	25	21		25.636		1.697
Jaguars	29	32	31	14	30	25	31	29	31	32	32		28.727		-3.060
Bears	32	30	30	30	29	31	30	32	27	28	30		29.909		-0.242
Buccaneers	31	31	32	31	32	32	26	31	32	31	31		30.909		-0.131

Observations:

• So how 'bout them Patriots?
• A lot of times people like to question the sources I use for this post, mostly when they disagree with the rankings or they don't like that there are one or two sites that seem to disagree with the other sites. Last week people were questioning BeatGraphs and Pro Football Reference. As with all of these objective ratings, the more games that are played, the more information feeds into their formulas and a better picture is painted. It's still early in the season, so there will be some variance in a team's rating.
• With that disclaimer out of the way, BeatGraphs being an outlier for the Seahawks kind of makes sense since Seattle is 1-2.
• Pro Football Reference seems all over the board because Strength of Schedule is one of the key components to their Simple Rating System, and it takes a few more than 3 games to get an accurate SOS picture. It's not the only input, but it is one of them.
• 
  

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
	FO	TR	SAG	BG	Aikman	PFR	CHFF	Massey	ARGH	538	FPI		STD DEV		Change in Value
Steelers	7	7	7	9	6	9	7	7	9	6	8		1.076		-1.704
Patriots	1	1	1	2	5	2	3	1	1	1	2		1.192		-2.175
Bears	32	30	30	30	29	31	30	32	27	28	30		1.443		-0.665
Buccaneers	31	31	32	31	32	32	26	31	32	31	31		1.621		0.073
Bengals	4	6	6	5	8	10	5	5	5	7	10		1.971		0.330
Bills	8	8	8	6	4	5	2	4	8	9	5		2.151		-2.051
Cardinals	2	5	4	7	1	8	1	6	4	5	1		2.374		-3.816
Saints	24	24	25	32	25	24	25	27	30	25	21		2.901		0.741
Lions	23	22	21	27	23	30	28	24	22	20	25		2.968		-1.195
Browns	27	27	28	22	28	18	23	26	28	27	27		3.056		-5.442
Dolphins	26	18	20	18	27	21	27	23	24	23	20		3.173		-1.277
Packers	3	3	3	8	11	12	4	3	3	3	3		3.343		-5.024
Texans	28	23	22	20	18	27	19	20	20	19	16		3.502		1.252
Chargers	19	16	19	24	19	29	21	18	16	18	17		3.675		2.104
Eagles	14	10	11	11	17	4	17	14	14	12	7		3.777		-0.278
Broncos	5	2	2	10	3	13	10	2	2	2	6		3.857		0.691
Ravens	16	12	14	21	22	20	22	17	21	15	11		3.868		-2.039
Rams	12	20	23	26	21	17	24	25	25	24	24		4.010		-1.284
Chiefs	17	9	12	15	24	23	16	12	11	13	12		4.602		-1.077
Giants	15	21	16	16	20	6	14	22	18	22	22		4.619		0.000
Jets	10	14	13	12	2	7	9	13	15	21	14		4.648		-0.185
Panthers	11	17	15	4	7	19	6	10	7	10	15		4.671		0.487
Vikings	13	15	18	19	16	26	8	15	13	16	23		4.698		0.760
Falcons	9	19	10	1	10	1	11	8	10	11	13		4.811		1.412
Raiders	20	28	24	13	14	22	18	21	23	26	29		4.959		0.534
Jaguars	29	32	31	14	30	25	31	29	31	32	32		5.047		-1.784
Cowboys	22	13	9	3	15	3	12	11	12	8	18		5.483		0.302
Redskins	25	29	27	25	12	14	20	28	26	29	26		5.594		-1.826
49ers	30	26	26	17	31	28	32	19	17	17	28		5.693		-0.178
Colts	18	11	17	23	26	11	29	16	19	14	9		6.096		-2.214
Seahawks	6	4	5	28	13	15	13	9	6	4	4		6.956		-3.275
Titans	21	25	29	29	9	16	15	30	29	30	19		6.999		-2.081

Observations:

• So three most inconsistently-ranked teams saw their standard deviation drop by at least 2 this week, so that indicates that the objective rankings also are gaining some consensus, which is to be expected.
• The Seahawks aren't nearly as inconsistently-ranked if you take out the one BeatGraphs outlier.
• The Titans are, however, all over the board.
• The greatest consensus is on the Steelers at a solid 7th place.
• Packers almost a unanimous 3rd place, if not for 4 sites (though one of those sites has them 4th)

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		Average		Change in Value
Patriots	1.182	1.818		1.500		0.500
Packers	2.000	5.091		3.545		0.788
Cardinals	3.273	4.000		3.636		2.170
Broncos	3.818	5.182		4.500		-0.486
Bengals	4.727	6.455		5.591		0.298
Bills	8.182	6.091		7.136		4.142
Falcons	7.000	9.364		8.182		4.610
Steelers	9.727	7.455		8.591		-1.313
Seahawks	8.455	9.727		9.091		2.076
Panthers	8.546	11.000		9.773		1.949
Cowboys	11.273	11.455		11.364		-1.725
Jets	13.727	11.818		12.773		-3.912
Vikings	11.546	16.546		14.046		4.010
Chiefs	14.364	14.909		14.636		-3.692
Eagles	17.546	11.909		14.727		4.565
Colts	14.818	17.546		16.182		1.290
Giants	19.000	17.455		18.227		4.481
Chargers	17.636	19.636		18.636		-5.150
Ravens	20.727	17.364		19.045		-1.837
Raiders	16.727	21.636		19.182		6.346
Rams	19.727	21.909		20.818		-1.054
Texans	23.636	21.091		22.364		2.900
Dolphins	22.455	22.455		22.455		-6.136
Titans	24.546	22.909		23.727		0.065
Redskins	24.909	23.727		24.318		-1.457
Lions	24.909	24.091		24.500		-2.333
49ers	26.818	24.636		25.727		-5.671
Browns	26.909	25.546		26.227		-2.727
Saints	30.364	25.636		28.000		0.417
Jaguars	28.182	28.727		28.455		-2.788
Buccaneers	29.273	30.909		30.091		-0.077
Bears	32.000	29.909		30.955		-0.247

Observations:

• Patriots solidified their spot at the top even more in the overall average. Though the Packers are gaining faster still.
• Cardinals climbing fast overall. Bills and Falcons too.
• Chargers in the bottom half of the league and I can't argue with that based on the three games I've seen.
• Top-12 overall has an even 6-to-6 parity of NFC vs AFC. Our playoff teams have been set already?
• Overall, teams are a bit more evenly distributed than they had been. No distinct clusters forming.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		STD DEV		Change in Value
Patriots	1.182	1.818		0.942		-1.386
Bears	32.000	29.909		1.461		-0.320
Buccaneers	29.273	30.909		1.564		0.087
Bengals	4.727	6.455		1.670		0.202
Cardinals	3.273	4.000		1.823		-2.633
Steelers	9.727	7.455		2.037		-1.149
Bills	8.182	6.091		2.222		-1.359
Lions	24.909	24.091		2.743		-1.017
Browns	26.909	25.546		2.827		-3.377
Packers	2.000	5.091		2.856		-3.234
Broncos	3.818	5.182		2.856		0.599
Chargers	17.636	19.636		3.023		1.032
Texans	23.636	21.091		3.053		-0.459
Dolphins	22.455	22.455		3.173		-0.676
Saints	30.364	25.636		3.289		0.368
Jets	13.727	11.818		3.554		-0.428
Ravens	20.727	17.364		3.561		-1.019
Panthers	8.546	11.000		3.716		-0.091
Falcons	7.000	9.364		3.725		-0.061
Rams	19.727	21.909		3.774		-0.747
Giants	19.000	17.455		3.942		-0.261
Chiefs	14.364	14.909		3.961		-0.523
Jaguars	28.182	28.727		3.974		-1.202
Cowboys	11.273	11.455		4.085		-0.672
Eagles	17.546	11.909		4.191		-0.832
Vikings	11.546	16.546		4.385		0.661
49ers	26.818	24.636		4.433		0.098
Redskins	24.909	23.727		4.466		-1.154
Raiders	16.727	21.636		4.499		0.985
Colts	14.818	17.546		4.896		-0.997
Seahawks	8.455	9.727		5.151		-2.010
Titans	24.546	22.909		5.344		-1.349

Observations:

• Again, overall standard deviation is going down as we see more games.
• Overall Standard Deviation still remains high.
• Seahawks and Titans both have subjective and objective averages close to each other, yet have the highest standard deviations.

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		Diff. in Avg		Change in Value
Vikings	11.546	16.546		5.000		1.555
Raiders	16.727	21.636		4.909		4.853
Packers	2.000	5.091		3.091		-2.242
Colts	14.818	17.546		2.727		2.116
Panthers	8.546	11.000		2.455		2.344
Falcons	7.000	9.364		2.364		-3.386
Rams	19.727	21.909		2.182		-1.179
Chargers	17.636	19.636		2.000		1.861
Bengals	4.727	6.455		1.727		0.616
Buccaneers	29.273	30.909		1.636		0.108
Broncos	3.818	5.182		1.364		0.503
Seahawks	8.455	9.727		1.273		-1.727
Cardinals	3.273	4.000		0.727		-1.884
Patriots	1.182	1.818		0.636		-0.697
Chiefs	14.364	14.909		0.546		-2.676
Jaguars	28.182	28.727		0.546		0.546
Cowboys	11.273	11.455		0.182		-2.096
Dolphins	22.455	22.455		0.000		1.528
Lions	24.909	24.091		-0.818		2.182
Redskins	24.909	23.727		-1.182		-1.904
Browns	26.909	25.546		-1.364		1.636
Giants	19.000	17.455		-1.546		1.871
Titans	24.546	22.909		-1.636		3.281
Jets	13.727	11.818		-1.909		0.702
Bills	8.182	6.091		-2.091		-3.313
Bears	32.000	29.909		-2.091		-0.008
49ers	26.818	24.636		-2.182		-0.960
Steelers	9.727	7.455		-2.273		-0.162
Texans	23.636	21.091		-2.546		2.426
Ravens	20.727	17.364		-3.364		-4.281
Saints	30.364	25.636		-4.727		-2.560
Eagles	17.546	11.909		-5.636		0.947

Observations:

• Have the Vikings been beating up on lesser opponents and not really tested? Or are the pundits seeing something that the models aren't?
• Raiders are subjectively higher than their objective ranking? What's next? Human sacrifice? Dogs and cats living together? Mass hysteria!?
• The Packers objective ranking is starting to come more in line with their subjective ranking.
• Pundits really want to believe in the Colts. Any sign of life and they start outpacing their objective ranking.
• I said it last week, I'll say it again this week: don't sleep on the Eagles.
• The Saints have been bad, but not as bad you think. Same story with the Bears.

Sources

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