SB Nation

John Crean | October 1, 2015

2015 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 4

Are the Cardinals among the Elite?

With three games in the books, a consensus is starting to emerge and teams are settling in to their respective rankings. There is still a bit of movement, and a few surprises.

Three weeks in and we're one step closer to knowing everything there is to know about all 32 teams in the NFL. Or so we think, if the prominent storylines in the mainstream media are to be believed. The real 49ers have shown up, the 49ers in week 1 were just pretenders. The optimism for Miami has all but died. Oakland has won two games now? They're finally good again! Maybe we were wrong to bury the Eagles and call Chip Kelly a failure after just two games?

That's the beauty of the NFL, each week the narrative changes and keeps things interesting.

The big question this week seems to be: just how good are the Arizona Cardinals? Are they an elite team? Have they proven themselves?

Personally, I've always liked the Cardinals. When the Chargers were looking for a new head coach after they fired Norv Turner, I didn't like the idea of Bruce Arians. Boy was I wrong. Arians is playing football the right way: balls out. "We're up by 3 scores? So what!? Keep the foot on the gas and obliterate our opponent!" Playing like a coach who has nothing to lose, I can respect that.

Notable Quotes

2015 is shaping up to be just like 2014. Everyone is hurt, play calling is predictable, no O-line. The defense is holding out as best they can, but there is little to no offensive support, thus leading to a tired defense. In Chargers fashion, they are losing games they are supposed to win and will probably win games they are supposed to lose. That last bit seems doubtful this year.

Not the way coach Mike McCoy -- or the Chargers' run defense, or the stinkin' offensive line -- drew it up, surely. Holy cow did San Diego's front five get blown off the ball on some key sequences. Bolts rookie Melvin Gordon is physical on certain runs, tentative on others. Meanwhile, coordinator John Pagano's defense was mostly solid, allowing only 284 yards of offense in the loss to the Vikings. Still think the Chargers will come through. They have the Browns and Vick-led Steelers, both at home, coming up.

They play three of next four at home and get TE Antonio Gates back in a week. They've got top 10 offense and defense despite 1-2 start.

Division Averages

Division Week 3 Average Week 4 Average Difference
AFC East 9.643 10.966 -1.323
AFC West 13.417 14.239 -0.822
NFC West 14.060 14.818 -0.758
AFC North 13.524 14.864 -1.340
NFC East 18.750 17.159 1.591
NFC North 18.750 18.261 0.489
NFC South 20.643 19.011 1.632
AFC South 23.214 22.682 0.532

Stock Rising

Team Week 3 Average Week 4 Average Difference
OAK 25.528 19.182 6.346
ATL 12.792 8.182 4.610
PHI 19.292 14.727 4.565
NYG 22.708 18.227 4.481
BUF 11.278 7.136 4.142

Stock Falling

Team Week 3 Average Week 4 Average Difference
MIA 16.319 22.455 -6.136
SF 20.056 25.727 -5.671
SDG 13.486 18.636 -5.150
NYJ 8.861 12.773 -3.912
KC 10.944 14.636 -3.692

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit AP Average Change in Value
Patriots 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1.182 0.151 Rising
Packers 3 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 3 2 2 2.000 -0.333 Falling
Cardinals 2 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 2 3 5 3.273 1.227 Rising
Broncos 4 3 5 4 4 3 5 3 4 4 3 3.818 -0.235 Falling
Bengals 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 4.727 0.606 Rising
Falcons 6 7 8 10 6 6 7 6 9 6 6 7.000 2.917 Rising
Bills 10 6 11 8 8 7 6 10 6 8 10 8.182 2.485 Rising
Seahawks 7 8 10 7 7 9 8 8 14 7 8 8.455 1.212 Rising
Panthers 9 10 7 6 11 10 10 7 7 10 7 8.546 3.121 Rising
Steelers 8 13 6 12 13 11 9 9 8 9 9 9.727 -1.394 Falling
Cowboys 11 11 9 13 10 8 15 11 12 12 12 11.273 -2.773 Falling
Vikings 13 9 12 9 9 13 11 15 11 14 11 11.546 4.787 Rising
Jets 15 14 17 14 12 14 13 12 13 13 14 13.727 -3.560 Falling
Chiefs 12 18 18 19 15 12 12 18 10 11 13 14.364 -5.031 Falling
Colts 14 12 13 11 16 20 14 13 19 15 16 14.818 2.349 Rising
Raiders 20 17 14 15 18 18 16 16 15 20 15 16.727 8.773 Rising
Eagles 17 15 16 20 17 22 20 14 17 18 17 17.546 5.037 Rising
Chargers 18 20 19 17 14 19 18 19 16 16 18 17.636 -4.219 Falling
Giants 16 16 15 18 20 25 19 20 23 17 20 19.000 5.417 Rising
Rams 19 21 28 16 19 17 17 22 18 21 19 19.727 -1.644 Falling
Ravens 22 23 20 21 22 15 22 21 20 19 23 20.727 -3.977 Falling
Dolphins 23 22 25 22 24 16 27 17 25 22 24 22.455 -5.372 Falling
Texans 21 24 24 25 23 23 25 27 22 25 21 23.636 4.114 Rising
Titans 24 19 26 24 28 24 24 24 29 26 22 24.546 1.704 Rising
Redskins 27 26 29 26 21 29 21 25 21 24 25 24.909 -2.409 Falling
Lions 25 25 21 23 26 28 23 30 24 23 26 24.909 -1.242 Falling
49ers 28 27 22 28 27 27 29 23 28 28 28 26.818 -6.151 Falling
Browns 26 29 27 31 25 21 28 28 27 27 27 26.909 -1.909 Falling
Jaguars 29 30 23 29 31 26 26 26 31 29 30 28.182 -2.515 Falling
Buccaneers 30 28 30 27 29 30 30 29 30 30 29 29.273 -0.023 Falling
Saints 31 31 31 30 30 31 31 31 26 31 31 30.364 -0.864 Falling
Bears 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32.000 -0.250 Falling

Observations:

  • Patriots moving one step closer to becoming the unanimous top team.
  • Packers moving down a bit this week, with the Cardinals stealing a couple second-place votes from them.
  • Unanimous consensus on which teams are top-5: Patriots, Packers, Cardinals, Broncos and Bengals. All 5 of those teams received votes in the 1-5 rankings; no other teams got top-5 votes.
  • Falcons knocking on the door though and kind of coming out of nowhere. The Falcons started the season with an average subjective ranking of 22.444, so they've risen quite nicely.
  • That Vikings front-7 has looked good the past two Sunday, as did Adrian Peterson; likely what has helped to propel the Vikings up in the rankings.
  • Chargers are falling, and rightfully so right now.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit AP STD DEV Change in Value
Bears 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.000 -0.595 Falling
Patriots 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0.386 -0.085 Falling
Bengals 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 0.445 -0.661 Falling
Packers 3 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 3 2 2 0.603 0.132 Rising
Broncos 4 3 5 4 4 3 5 3 4 4 3 0.716 -0.322 Falling
Cardinals 2 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 2 3 5 0.862 -0.894 Falling
Buccaneers 30 28 30 27 29 30 30 29 30 30 29 0.962 -0.048 Falling
Falcons 6 7 8 10 6 6 7 6 9 6 6 1.348 -0.150 Falling
Jets 15 14 17 14 12 14 13 12 13 13 14 1.355 -1.348 Falling
Saints 31 31 31 30 30 31 31 31 26 31 31 1.432 -1.637 Falling
Chargers 18 20 19 17 14 19 18 19 16 16 18 1.666 -0.587 Falling
Panthers 9 10 7 6 11 10 10 7 7 10 7 1.671 -1.825 Falling
Bills 10 6 11 8 8 7 6 10 6 8 10 1.749 -1.176 Falling
Texans 21 24 24 25 23 23 25 27 22 25 21 1.772 -0.909 Falling
Cowboys 11 11 9 13 10 8 15 11 12 12 12 1.814 -2.339 Falling
Raiders 20 17 14 15 18 18 16 16 15 20 15 1.958 -0.672 Falling
Vikings 13 9 12 9 9 13 11 15 11 14 11 1.971 -0.778 Falling
Seahawks 7 8 10 7 7 9 8 8 14 7 8 1.971 -0.747 Falling
49ers 28 27 22 28 27 27 29 23 28 28 28 2.124 -0.404 Falling
Steelers 8 13 6 12 13 11 9 9 8 9 9 2.136 -1.035 Falling
Ravens 22 23 20 21 22 15 22 21 20 19 23 2.178 -1.014 Falling
Eagles 17 15 16 20 17 22 20 14 17 18 17 2.231 -1.408 Falling
Browns 26 29 27 31 25 21 28 28 27 27 27 2.391 -0.664 Falling
Lions 25 25 21 23 26 28 23 30 24 23 26 2.429 -0.380 Falling
Jaguars 29 30 23 29 31 26 26 26 31 29 30 2.443 -1.005 Falling
Titans 24 19 26 24 28 24 24 24 29 26 22 2.606 0.118 Rising
Colts 14 12 13 11 16 20 14 13 19 15 16 2.657 -0.310 Falling
Redskins 27 26 29 26 21 29 21 25 21 24 25 2.811 -0.897 Falling
Giants 16 16 15 18 20 25 19 20 23 17 20 2.923 -0.225 Falling
Rams 19 21 28 16 19 17 17 22 18 21 19 3.165 0.017 Rising
Chiefs 12 18 18 19 15 12 12 18 10 11 13 3.170 0.610 Rising
Dolphins 23 22 25 22 24 16 27 17 25 22 24 3.173 -0.001 Falling

Observations:

  • Bears unanimously at the bottom of the heap. Kind of deserved when you punt the ball on all 10 of your possessions in a game.
  • Overall, standard deviation went down more this week than it went up. Consensus is starting to form overall.
  • Like I said, there is a unanimous consensus of the top-5 teams this week.
  • The Jets ranking dropped quite a bit this week, but their standard deviation dropped considerably as well; rankers are starting to agree on them.
  • Chargers are getting more settled.
  • Rams, Chiefs, and Dolphins: the three teams nobody can seem to figure out.

Objective Average

Objective
FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI Average Change in Value
Patriots 1 1 1 2 5 2 3 1 1 1 2 1.818 0.849 Rising
Cardinals 2 5 4 7 1 8 1 6 4 5 1 4.000 3.111 Rising
Packers 3 3 3 8 11 12 4 3 3 3 3 5.091 1.909 Rising
Broncos 5 2 2 10 3 13 10 2 2 2 6 5.182 -0.738 Falling
Bills 8 8 8 6 4 5 2 4 8 9 5 6.091 5.798 Rising
Bengals 4 6 6 5 8 10 5 5 5 7 10 6.455 -0.011 Falling
Steelers 7 7 7 9 6 9 7 7 9 6 8 7.455 -1.233 Falling
Falcons 9 19 10 1 10 1 11 8 10 11 13 9.364 6.303 Rising
Seahawks 6 4 5 28 13 15 13 9 6 4 4 9.727 2.940 Rising
Panthers 11 17 15 4 7 19 6 10 7 10 15 11.000 0.778 Rising
Cowboys 22 13 9 3 15 3 12 11 12 8 18 11.455 -0.677 Falling
Jets 10 14 13 12 2 7 9 13 15 21 14 11.818 -4.262 Falling
Eagles 14 10 11 11 17 4 17 14 14 12 7 11.909 4.091 Rising
Chiefs 17 9 12 15 24 23 16 12 11 13 12 14.909 -2.353 Falling
Vikings 13 15 18 19 16 26 8 15 13 16 23 16.546 3.232 Rising
Ravens 16 12 14 21 22 20 22 17 21 15 11 17.364 0.303 Rising
Giants 15 21 16 16 20 6 14 22 18 22 22 17.455 3.545 Rising
Colts 18 11 17 23 26 11 29 16 19 14 9 17.546 0.232 Rising
Chargers 19 16 19 24 19 29 21 18 16 18 17 19.636 -6.080 Falling
Texans 28 23 22 20 18 27 19 20 20 19 16 21.091 1.687 Rising
Raiders 20 28 24 13 14 22 18 21 23 26 29 21.636 3.920 Rising
Rams 12 20 23 26 21 17 24 25 25 24 24 21.909 -0.465 Falling
Dolphins 26 18 20 18 27 21 27 23 24 23 20 22.455 -6.899 Falling
Titans 21 25 29 29 9 16 15 30 29 30 19 22.909 -1.576 Falling
Redskins 25 29 27 25 12 14 20 28 26 29 26 23.727 -0.505 Falling
Lions 23 22 21 27 23 30 28 24 22 20 25 24.091 -3.424 Falling
49ers 30 26 26 17 31 28 32 19 17 17 28 24.636 -5.192 Falling
Browns 27 27 28 22 28 18 23 26 28 27 27 25.546 -3.546 Falling
Saints 24 24 25 32 25 24 25 27 30 25 21 25.636 1.697 Rising
Jaguars 29 32 31 14 30 25 31 29 31 32 32 28.727 -3.060 Falling
Bears 32 30 30 30 29 31 30 32 27 28 30 29.909 -0.242 Falling
Buccaneers 31 31 32 31 32 32 26 31 32 31 31 30.909 -0.131 Falling

Observations:

  • So how 'bout them Patriots?
  • A lot of times people like to question the sources I use for this post, mostly when they disagree with the rankings or they don't like that there are one or two sites that seem to disagree with the other sites. Last week people were questioning BeatGraphs and Pro Football Reference. As with all of these objective ratings, the more games that are played, the more information feeds into their formulas and a better picture is painted. It's still early in the season, so there will be some variance in a team's rating.
  • With that disclaimer out of the way, BeatGraphs being an outlier for the Seahawks kind of makes sense since Seattle is 1-2.
  • Pro Football Reference seems all over the board because Strength of Schedule is one of the key components to their Simple Rating System, and it takes a few more than 3 games to get an accurate SOS picture. It's not the only input, but it is one of them.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI STD DEV Change in Value
Steelers 7 7 7 9 6 9 7 7 9 6 8 1.076 -1.704 Falling
Patriots 1 1 1 2 5 2 3 1 1 1 2 1.192 -2.175 Falling
Bears 32 30 30 30 29 31 30 32 27 28 30 1.443 -0.665 Falling
Buccaneers 31 31 32 31 32 32 26 31 32 31 31 1.621 0.073 Rising
Bengals 4 6 6 5 8 10 5 5 5 7 10 1.971 0.330 Rising
Bills 8 8 8 6 4 5 2 4 8 9 5 2.151 -2.051 Falling
Cardinals 2 5 4 7 1 8 1 6 4 5 1 2.374 -3.816 Falling
Saints 24 24 25 32 25 24 25 27 30 25 21 2.901 0.741 Rising
Lions 23 22 21 27 23 30 28 24 22 20 25 2.968 -1.195 Falling
Browns 27 27 28 22 28 18 23 26 28 27 27 3.056 -5.442 Falling
Dolphins 26 18 20 18 27 21 27 23 24 23 20 3.173 -1.277 Falling
Packers 3 3 3 8 11 12 4 3 3 3 3 3.343 -5.024 Falling
Texans 28 23 22 20 18 27 19 20 20 19 16 3.502 1.252 Rising
Chargers 19 16 19 24 19 29 21 18 16 18 17 3.675 2.104 Rising
Eagles 14 10 11 11 17 4 17 14 14 12 7 3.777 -0.278 Falling
Broncos 5 2 2 10 3 13 10 2 2 2 6 3.857 0.691 Rising
Ravens 16 12 14 21 22 20 22 17 21 15 11 3.868 -2.039 Falling
Rams 12 20 23 26 21 17 24 25 25 24 24 4.010 -1.284 Falling
Chiefs 17 9 12 15 24 23 16 12 11 13 12 4.602 -1.077 Falling
Giants 15 21 16 16 20 6 14 22 18 22 22 4.619 0.000 No Change
Jets 10 14 13 12 2 7 9 13 15 21 14 4.648 -0.185 Falling
Panthers 11 17 15 4 7 19 6 10 7 10 15 4.671 0.487 Rising
Vikings 13 15 18 19 16 26 8 15 13 16 23 4.698 0.760 Rising
Falcons 9 19 10 1 10 1 11 8 10 11 13 4.811 1.412 Rising
Raiders 20 28 24 13 14 22 18 21 23 26 29 4.959 0.534 Rising
Jaguars 29 32 31 14 30 25 31 29 31 32 32 5.047 -1.784 Falling
Cowboys 22 13 9 3 15 3 12 11 12 8 18 5.483 0.302 Rising
Redskins 25 29 27 25 12 14 20 28 26 29 26 5.594 -1.826 Falling
49ers 30 26 26 17 31 28 32 19 17 17 28 5.693 -0.178 Falling
Colts 18 11 17 23 26 11 29 16 19 14 9 6.096 -2.214 Falling
Seahawks 6 4 5 28 13 15 13 9 6 4 4 6.956 -3.275 Falling
Titans 21 25 29 29 9 16 15 30 29 30 19 6.999 -2.081 Falling

Observations:

  • So three most inconsistently-ranked teams saw their standard deviation drop by at least 2 this week, so that indicates that the objective rankings also are gaining some consensus, which is to be expected.
  • The Seahawks aren't nearly as inconsistently-ranked if you take out the one BeatGraphs outlier.
  • The Titans are, however, all over the board.
  • The greatest consensus is on the Steelers at a solid 7th place.
  • Packers almost a unanimous 3rd place, if not for 4 sites (though one of those sites has them 4th)

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Average Change in Value
Patriots 1.182 1.818 1.500 0.500 Rising
Packers 2.000 5.091 3.545 0.788 Rising
Cardinals 3.273 4.000 3.636 2.170 Rising
Broncos 3.818 5.182 4.500 -0.486 Falling
Bengals 4.727 6.455 5.591 0.298 Rising
Bills 8.182 6.091 7.136 4.142 Rising
Falcons 7.000 9.364 8.182 4.610 Rising
Steelers 9.727 7.455 8.591 -1.313 Falling
Seahawks 8.455 9.727 9.091 2.076 Rising
Panthers 8.546 11.000 9.773 1.949 Rising
Cowboys 11.273 11.455 11.364 -1.725 Falling
Jets 13.727 11.818 12.773 -3.912 Falling
Vikings 11.546 16.546 14.046 4.010 Rising
Chiefs 14.364 14.909 14.636 -3.692 Falling
Eagles 17.546 11.909 14.727 4.565 Rising
Colts 14.818 17.546 16.182 1.290 Rising
Giants 19.000 17.455 18.227 4.481 Rising
Chargers 17.636 19.636 18.636 -5.150 Falling
Ravens 20.727 17.364 19.045 -1.837 Falling
Raiders 16.727 21.636 19.182 6.346 Rising
Rams 19.727 21.909 20.818 -1.054 Falling
Texans 23.636 21.091 22.364 2.900 Rising
Dolphins 22.455 22.455 22.455 -6.136 Falling
Titans 24.546 22.909 23.727 0.065 Rising
Redskins 24.909 23.727 24.318 -1.457 Falling
Lions 24.909 24.091 24.500 -2.333 Falling
49ers 26.818 24.636 25.727 -5.671 Falling
Browns 26.909 25.546 26.227 -2.727 Falling
Saints 30.364 25.636 28.000 0.417 Rising
Jaguars 28.182 28.727 28.455 -2.788 Falling
Buccaneers 29.273 30.909 30.091 -0.077 Falling
Bears 32.000 29.909 30.955 -0.247 Falling

Observations:

  • Patriots solidified their spot at the top even more in the overall average. Though the Packers are gaining faster still.
  • Cardinals climbing fast overall. Bills and Falcons too.
  • Chargers in the bottom half of the league and I can't argue with that based on the three games I've seen.
  • Top-12 overall has an even 6-to-6 parity of NFC vs AFC. Our playoff teams have been set already?
  • Overall, teams are a bit more evenly distributed than they had been. No distinct clusters forming.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg STD DEV Change in Value
Patriots 1.182 1.818 0.942 -1.386 Falling
Bears 32.000 29.909 1.461 -0.320 Falling
Buccaneers 29.273 30.909 1.564 0.087 Rising
Bengals 4.727 6.455 1.670 0.202 Rising
Cardinals 3.273 4.000 1.823 -2.633 Falling
Steelers 9.727 7.455 2.037 -1.149 Falling
Bills 8.182 6.091 2.222 -1.359 Falling
Lions 24.909 24.091 2.743 -1.017 Falling
Browns 26.909 25.546 2.827 -3.377 Falling
Packers 2.000 5.091 2.856 -3.234 Falling
Broncos 3.818 5.182 2.856 0.599 Rising
Chargers 17.636 19.636 3.023 1.032 Rising
Texans 23.636 21.091 3.053 -0.459 Falling
Dolphins 22.455 22.455 3.173 -0.676 Falling
Saints 30.364 25.636 3.289 0.368 Rising
Jets 13.727 11.818 3.554 -0.428 Falling
Ravens 20.727 17.364 3.561 -1.019 Falling
Panthers 8.546 11.000 3.716 -0.091 Falling
Falcons 7.000 9.364 3.725 -0.061 Falling
Rams 19.727 21.909 3.774 -0.747 Falling
Giants 19.000 17.455 3.942 -0.261 Falling
Chiefs 14.364 14.909 3.961 -0.523 Falling
Jaguars 28.182 28.727 3.974 -1.202 Falling
Cowboys 11.273 11.455 4.085 -0.672 Falling
Eagles 17.546 11.909 4.191 -0.832 Falling
Vikings 11.546 16.546 4.385 0.661 Rising
49ers 26.818 24.636 4.433 0.098 Rising
Redskins 24.909 23.727 4.466 -1.154 Falling
Raiders 16.727 21.636 4.499 0.985 Rising
Colts 14.818 17.546 4.896 -0.997 Falling
Seahawks 8.455 9.727 5.151 -2.010 Falling
Titans 24.546 22.909 5.344 -1.349 Falling

Observations:

  • Again, overall standard deviation is going down as we see more games.
  • Overall Standard Deviation still remains high.
  • Seahawks and Titans both have subjective and objective averages close to each other, yet have the highest standard deviations.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Diff. in Avg Change in Value
Vikings 11.546 16.546 5.000 1.555 Rising
Raiders 16.727 21.636 4.909 4.853 Rising
Packers 2.000 5.091 3.091 -2.242 Rising
Colts 14.818 17.546 2.727 2.116 Rising
Panthers 8.546 11.000 2.455 2.344 Rising
Falcons 7.000 9.364 2.364 -3.386 Rising
Rams 19.727 21.909 2.182 -1.179 Rising
Chargers 17.636 19.636 2.000 1.861 Rising
Bengals 4.727 6.455 1.727 0.616 Rising
Buccaneers 29.273 30.909 1.636 0.108 Rising
Broncos 3.818 5.182 1.364 0.503 Rising
Seahawks 8.455 9.727 1.273 -1.727 Rising
Cardinals 3.273 4.000 0.727 -1.884 Rising
Patriots 1.182 1.818 0.636 -0.697 Rising
Chiefs 14.364 14.909 0.546 -2.676 Rising
Jaguars 28.182 28.727 0.546 0.546 Rising
Cowboys 11.273 11.455 0.182 -2.096 Rising
Dolphins 22.455 22.455 0.000 1.528 Rising
Lions 24.909 24.091 -0.818 2.182 Rising
Redskins 24.909 23.727 -1.182 -1.904 Rising
Browns 26.909 25.546 -1.364 1.636 Rising
Giants 19.000 17.455 -1.546 1.871 Rising
Titans 24.546 22.909 -1.636 3.281 Rising
Jets 13.727 11.818 -1.909 0.702 Rising
Bills 8.182 6.091 -2.091 -3.313 Rising
Bears 32.000 29.909 -2.091 -0.008 Rising
49ers 26.818 24.636 -2.182 -0.960 Rising
Steelers 9.727 7.455 -2.273 -0.162 Rising
Texans 23.636 21.091 -2.546 2.426 Rising
Ravens 20.727 17.364 -3.364 -4.281 Rising
Saints 30.364 25.636 -4.727 -2.560 Rising
Eagles 17.546 11.909 -5.636 0.947 Rising

Observations:

  • Have the Vikings been beating up on lesser opponents and not really tested? Or are the pundits seeing something that the models aren't?
  • Raiders are subjectively higher than their objective ranking? What's next? Human sacrifice? Dogs and cats living together? Mass hysteria!?
  • The Packers objective ranking is starting to come more in line with their subjective ranking.
  • Pundits really want to believe in the Colts. Any sign of life and they start outpacing their objective ranking.
  • I said it last week, I'll say it again this week: don't sleep on the Eagles.
  • The Saints have been bad, but not as bad you think. Same story with the Bears.

Sources

Subjective Objective
ESPN Football Outsiders
Fox Team Rankings
CBS Sagarin
USA Today BeatGraphs
Sports Illustrated Aikman Efficiency
ProFootballTalk Pro Football Reference
NFL.com Cold Hard Football Facts
SportingNews Massey
SB Nation ARGH
Reddit Five Thirty Eight
Associated Press Football Power Index

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