2014 NFL Power Ranking Consensus, Week 1

Football is back! That means Power Rankings are back too, and we plug all the rankings into our Rankotron 4000 and get a sense for how all 32 teams stack up.

I don't know about you guys, but it's been a long seven months since the Super Bowl. Even though we're heading into autumn, today kinda feels like the first day of spring. The snow is melting, the grass is coming up, all the little critters are waking up and there's an excitement in the air.

Just like most teams in the NFL, it takes the rankers a few weeks to shake the rust off and get up to speed. Because of that, we don't have the full complement of rankers, especially those on the "Objective" side of things. Well, we don't have any objective rankers. That's fine, since they rely on the actual game stats to make their rankings.

Since it's the start of the season, I'll give everyone a quick primer about how this works.

I troll the web for various NFL power rankings, load them up into my computer and crunch the numbers. I then make observations based on what the numbers tell me. Don't worry, it's nothing too complicated, and I'll walk you through the various displays, explaining as we go along.

Notable Quotes

Has a team that made it to the playoffs one year ever been so disregarded the next?

Dwight Freeney to Bleacher Report's Mike Freeman: "We're a Super Bowl team because we have the right mentality. There's a feeling on this team that this is our time." Freeney ought to know, having played on a Super Bowl team in Indianapolis. Granted, there was a four- or five-year stretch not that long ago when every season felt like the Chargers' time, and nothing came of it.

It's hard not to like these Chargers. Philip Rivers looked reeeaaal nice in the preseason. As Cousin Eddie would say, it might have been best just to let him finish ... the games, that is. Of course, we don't get to see the No. 1s for very long in August football, so we're still waiting to learn how running back Ryan Mathews will fare. Oh, by the way, coordinator John Pagano's defense looks improved

Division Averages

Before we get to looking at where all the teams rank, let's take look at the bigger picture in the NFL. This table takes the average rankings for each team, then averages the rankings of each team in the division. It's used as a way of showing where the tougher and weaker divisions lie each week.

So, as you can see, I'm including the averages from the last week of last season. I did it this way to see how much things have changed between seasons. So basically, the NFC West doesn't seem as scary as it did a few weeks ago, and the NFC North is surging.

Stock Rising

Wow, Green Bay seems poised to be scary good this year. Not surprising that 4 of the 5 teams that rose the most are NFC teams.

Stock Falling

Looks like Carolina and Green Bay basically swapped spots. I think the rest pretty much jive with my gut feeling of which teams regressed in the offseason.

Subjective Average

We'll start off with the Subjective Average. These rankings are the ones that has actual people ranking the teams based on their gut feelings. You'll see in a moment that some of these sites may even just throw darts at a board, or have a chicken pecking at numbers.

I then take all those rankings and average them together, then sort the table based on the average ranking. This method evens out the peaks and valleys and allows us to get a more reliable "big picture" view of the perception of where teams rank in the league.

	Subjective
Seahawks	1	1	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.182		0.374
Broncos	2	2	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	2		2.000		-0.444
Patriots	3	4	4	4	5	3	5	6	3	2	3		3.818		0.515
Saints	5	3	5	3	3	5	3	5	4	4	5		4.091		2.576
Packers	6	5	2	5	4	4	4	4	6	5	4		4.455		7.656
49ers	4	6	7	6	6	6	7	3	5	6	6		5.636		-1.747
Eagles	7	7	9	8	7	11	6	7	7	7	7		7.546		1.787
Colts	8	10	15	7	8	8	8	8	9	8	8		8.818		0.182
Bengals	9	8	6	9	9	9	10	10	8	12	10		9.091		-2.202
Ravens	12	9	13	12	10	7	15	12	15	10	11		11.455		4.434
Chargers	11	12	11	16	12	14	9	11	11	11	9		11.546		0.898
Bears	10	15	14	11	11	12	14	9	12	9	12		11.727		3.829
Cardinals	14	13	8	10	17	13	12	16	14	15	14		13.273		-2.495
Steelers	13	16	12	13	13	15	16	13	17	13	13		14.000		0.444
Panthers	15	14	22	14	14	10	11	17	10	16	15		14.364		-10.697
Chiefs	16	17	18	15	15	17	13	15	13	24	16		16.273		-7.384
Lions	18	11	16	19	16	19	21	18	16	17	17		17.091		4.020
Falcons	17	19	10	18	27	16	19	14	19	21	21		18.273		8.283
Jets	21	22	21	17	20	18	17	23	22	18	19		19.818		-0.707
Buccaneers	19	23	23	23	21	25	20	22	23	14	18		21.000		5.556
Giants	20	21	17	25	23	20	24	19	21	20	23		21.182		1.040
Dolphins	22	20	19	21	18	28	18	27	18	23	24		21.636		-3.192
Rams	24	18	20	20	19	24	23	20	25	25	20		21.636		-2.303
Cowboys	23	25	25	22	26	22	22	21	20	22	25		23.000		-5.667
Redskins	25	26	26	24	25	21	27	24	24	29	22		24.818		5.849
Vikings	26	27	27	27	22	23	26	26	28	19	28		25.364		-0.586
Titans	28	30	24	28	24	31	25	29	26	30	26		27.364		-5.475
Texans	27	29	31	26	32	27	31	25	27	31	27		28.455		3.545
Browns	30	24	28	30	29	29	30	28	30	28	31		28.818		-1.040
Jaguars	31	28	30	29	28	26	28	30	31	26	30		28.818		-0.040
Bills	29	31	29	31	30	30	29	31	29	27	29		29.546		-4.990
Raiders	32	32	32	32	31	32	32	32	32	32	32		31.909		-2.020

Observations:

• Top 12 is evenly split between NFC and AFC teams (Chargers included). All bottom 6 teams are AFC teams, though.
• CBS ... huh. Panthers at 22 and Falcons at 10? You're either a mad genius, or just plain mad. CBS was also the only one not to rank the Seahawks as first.
• Based on the rankings, the Chargers/Cardinals game seems like it'll be a fairly even match.
• Last year, the Chargers were ranked around 26th to open the season. My how things have improved.
• The Raiders were almost a consensus worst team. *Shakes fist at SI*
• If the rankings are to be believed, the Chargers have 4 games this season against the bottom 3 teams.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Put simply, Standard Deviation is a tool in statistics to measure how much variance there is in a set of numbers. To put more simply: I use it to look at who's ranked the most- and least-consistently. In Standard Deviation, the lower the number, the more consistent the values in the set.

For our purposes, this means the lower the Standard Deviation, the more consistent the rankings. The opposite is true too: the higher the number, the less consistent the rankings.

This table is sorted by most-consistently ranked to least-consistently ranked.

	Subjective
Raiders	32	32	32	32	31	32	32	32	32	32	32		0.288		-0.279
Broncos	2	2	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	2		0.426		-0.071
Seahawks	1	1	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		0.575		-0.110
Saints	5	3	5	3	3	5	3	5	4	4	5		0.900		0.233
Packers	6	5	2	5	4	4	4	4	6	5	4		1.076		-0.024
Patriots	3	4	4	4	5	3	5	6	3	2	3		1.113		0.170
49ers	4	6	7	6	6	6	7	3	5	6	6		1.150		0.413
Bills	29	31	29	31	30	30	29	31	29	27	29		1.157		-0.100
Eagles	7	7	9	8	7	11	6	7	7	7	7		1.305		-0.109
Bengals	9	8	6	9	9	9	10	10	8	12	10		1.443		0.568
Steelers	13	16	12	13	13	15	16	13	17	13	13		1.595		0.529
Jaguars	31	28	30	29	28	26	28	30	31	26	30		1.696		0.469
Browns	30	24	28	30	29	29	30	28	30	28	31		1.800		0.326
Cowboys	23	25	25	22	26	22	22	21	20	22	25		1.859		0.704
Bears	10	15	14	11	11	12	14	9	12	9	12		1.911		0.340
Chargers	11	12	11	16	12	14	9	11	11	11	9		1.924		1.427
Jets	21	22	21	17	20	18	17	23	22	18	19		2.037		-0.521
Colts	8	10	15	7	8	8	8	8	9	8	8		2.081		1.027
Redskins	25	26	26	24	25	21	27	24	24	29	22		2.124		1.181
Giants	20	21	17	25	23	20	24	19	21	20	23		2.249		0.852
Ravens	12	9	13	12	10	7	15	12	15	10	11		2.311		1.997
Texans	27	29	31	26	32	27	31	25	27	31	27		2.311		2.311
Titans	28	30	24	28	24	31	25	29	26	30	26		2.385		1.648
Lions	18	11	16	19	16	19	21	18	16	17	17		2.429		0.637
Cardinals	14	13	8	10	17	13	12	16	14	15	14		2.453		1.138
Rams	24	18	20	20	19	24	23	20	25	25	20		2.460		0.969
Vikings	26	27	27	27	22	23	26	26	28	19	28		2.706		2.077
Chiefs	16	17	18	15	15	17	13	15	13	24	16		2.863		1.200
Buccaneers	19	23	23	23	21	25	20	22	23	14	18		2.954		1.998
Panthers	15	14	22	14	14	10	11	17	10	16	15		3.283		2.466
Dolphins	22	20	19	21	18	28	18	27	18	23	24		3.392		1.969
Falcons	17	19	10	18	27	16	19	14	19	21	21		4.114		2.543

Observations:

• Raiders, Broncos, Seahawks, and Saints are the most consistently ranked teams.
• Falcons all over the board
• The four least consistently-ranked teams all come from the southeast. Does it mean anything? No.
• Chargers are in the middle as far as ranking consistency.

Sources

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